Kazakhstan and Israel are expected to ceasefire, why does the United States persuade Russia to accept negotiations? With the trilateral meeting between China, France and Europe imminent, can Macron's "Olympic card" promote the early end of the Russian-Ukrainian war?
The leaders of the United States and Israel spoke on the phone, and a ceasefire between Kazakhstan and Israel is hopeful
After Blinken's visit to China and the Middle East, a ceasefire between Kazakhstan and Israel seems to be at the end of the tunnel. According to foreign media reports, on April 29, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken urged Hamas to quickly accept Israel's latest ceasefire agreement during his attendance at the World Economic Forum in Saudi Arabia, which he described as "extremely generous." Hamas's top brass said there were "no major issues" with the content of the new agreement. At present, the atmosphere of the talks is relatively positive, and both sides are expected to respond in the coming days. According to Israeli government officials, the Israeli side will send a delegation to Egypt to participate in the negotiations on the 30th.
According to the report, Israel's latest proposal is that Hamas can release no more than 40 hostages in exchange for Israel's release of Palestinian prisoners. The Israeli army will also launch a "period of sustained calm" in the second phase to meet Hamas's demand for a long-term ceasefire.
Kazakhstan and Israel have made progress in the ceasefire, and the establishment of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel has also been established. During his visit to Saudi Arabia, Blinken said the United States was close to a security agreement with Saudi Arabia that the United States would sign if Saudi Arabia and Israel made peace.
Blinken revealed that he was scheduled to visit Saudi Arabia and Israel on October 10 last year to resolve the issue of the Palestinians in the normalization agreement. However, the visit was not possible due to Hamas's attacks on Israel. "In order for relations to normalize, two things need to be met: peace in Gaza and a credible path to a Palestinian state," Blinken said. ”
The breakthrough in the Kazakh-Israeli talks has a lot to do with the phone call between the US and Israeli leaders on 28 April. The White House said that on the 28th, Biden held a phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to discuss ongoing negotiations, and the two also talked about Israel's military operation in Rafah, southern Gaza. During the meeting, Biden reiterated the U.S. position that the U.S. is committed to Israel's security, but Israel must step up humanitarian assistance to Gaza.
Israel, for its part, assured the United States that it would not send ground troops into the southern Gaza city of Rafah without fully listening to its concerns. In addition, Israel has agreed to build a temporary dock on the coast of Gaza, which will be completed within two to three weeks, when more humanitarian supplies will be delivered to Gaza.
The United States persuaded Russia to accept negotiations, and Ukraine's situation deteriorated
The easing of the situation in Gaza is a positive factor for Biden's re-election. And Biden also wants to take advantage of the victory to pursue and further solve the Russia-Ukraine issue. On April 29, Blinken said at a special meeting of the World Economic Forum in Saudi Arabia that the United States hopes that Russia "will agree to negotiate the situation in Ukraine in accordance with international law."
In response to Blinken's appeal, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Zakharova responded as soon as possible. She said that as early as 2022, Moscow had expressed its willingness to respond constructively to the proposals for dialogue, but it was the United States that forced Zelensky to ban Ukraine from negotiating with Russia. Russian media also pointed out that Ukraine has banned negotiations with Russia at the legislative level. According to the Kremlin, there are currently no preconditions for the transition of the situation in Ukraine to a peaceful settlement, and for Russia, achieving the goals of the special military operation is an absolute priority.
The United States took the initiative to ask Russia to accept negotiations because the situation on the front line is becoming more and more unfavorable for Ukraine. The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Syrsky, said on the 28th that "the situation on the front line is deteriorating", and the Russian army, in order to seize the strategic initiative and break through the defensive line, concentrates its main forces in several directions, "forming a significant advantage in forces and means."
The British newspaper The Guardian pointed out that under pressure from Russia, Ukraine had to retreat from 3 villages, and the Ukrainian army is facing a "difficult but not yet catastrophic" situation. CNN also acknowledged that in the eastern regions of Ukraine, "Russia is making tactical progress every day."
The Institute for the Study of War, a US think tank, believes that Ukraine may suffer more setbacks in the short term, and the Russian army may make significant tactical progress in the coming weeks, but it is unlikely to overwhelm Ukraine's defenses. CNN said Moscow's intention was to give full play to its huge advantage in ammunition before Washington's aid arrived.
The Russian army may occupy Donbas in October, and Zelensky wants the United States to support it for another 10 years
In the eyes of the Russian media, the Russian army is currently "completely in control" of the battlefield, and since the beginning of this year, the Ukrainian army has built long fortifications in the direction of Kherson and Zaporozhye, and it is unlikely that a large-scale counteroffensive will be launched this year. Russian media also quoted a report from the Swiss "Observer" that a commander of the 5th Assault Brigade of the Ukrainian army said that the Russian army "may take control of the Donbas region in October", and the Ukrainian side will be forced to open negotiations with the Russian side. Some Ukrainian military personnel believe that even if the authorities strengthen mobilization, the situation will not be improved, because the current conscripts may not be able to complete their training and enter the battlefield until October.
In this regard, the Ukrainian media retorted that the Ukrainian army's fortifications are very strong, and the probability of a major breakthrough by the Russian army is not high. The Ukrainian army still has enough capacity to slow down the advance of the Russian army and continue to wear down the other side. If a breakthrough cannot be made on the front line, then both sides may continue to launch long-range strikes against the enemy's energy and military-industrial facilities, weakening the other's war potential. Considering that Ukraine is about to receive long-range precision weapons from the United States and other Western countries, Russia will face huge losses in this war of attrition.
After the United States approved aid to Ukraine, signs of prolongation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict are becoming more and more obvious. On April 29, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg made a surprise visit to Kyiv and held talks with Zelensky. Stoltenberg said at a joint press conference that Ukraine has been at a disadvantage in armaments in recent months, but it is "not too late" to win. Zelenskyy, for his part, urged that Western aid arrive faster in order to "jointly disrupt the Russian offensive."
Zelenskyy also said that Kyiv is negotiating a long-term agreement with Washington that will prompt Washington to provide military, economic and political support to Ukraine over the next 10 years.
David Sachs, former chief operating officer of PayPal, believes that the controversial $61 billion in aid that Washington has agreed to provide to Kyiv may be "just the beginning." He pointed out that the war in Ukraine, like Vietnam and Iraq, was an easily avoided war, but it broke out under false pretexts. Tesla CEO Elon Musk commented, "It's crazy, eternal war."
China, France and Europe trilateral meeting, Macron wants to play the "Olympic card"
In general, although Kazakhstan and Israel are about to cease fire, due to the stalemate in the Russian-Ukrainian war, the Biden administration's predicament has not been resolved, but has become more serious. At this time, the United States alone may no longer be able to solve the problem, and the outside world has begun to focus on the upcoming trilateral meeting between China, France and Europe.
According to Agence France-Presse, this year marks the 60th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and France, and the Chinese leader is about to travel to Europe to visit France, Serbia and Hungary. In order to speed up the end of the Russia-Ukraine war, Macron intends to invite the Chinese leader and the president of the European Commission to a trilateral meeting in Paris next Monday.
The report mentioned that last year Macron called on China to "bring Russia back to its senses" on the Ukraine issue. Shortly thereafter, the Chinese leader held his first phone call with the Ukrainian president since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war. Therefore, it is expected that if the leaders of China, France and Europe can hold face-to-face talks, then there may be more solutions to the Russia-Ukraine problem.
It should be noted that the purpose of Macron's formation is not only to promote Russia-Ukraine peace talks, but also to compete for leadership in Europe and exclude US influence. In June, the European Parliament will hold elections to decide who will be the next president of the European Commission. And Macron has made it clear that he wants to replace the current chairman, von der Leyen, with Draghi, the former president of the European Central Bank.
If this plan succeeds, the EU's trade and climate policy will be firmly in France's hands, and China and the EU are expected to cooperate more in areas such as new energy and nuclear energy. And in order to persuade European leaders to agree to this personnel arrangement, Macron must come up with a practical peace plan between Russia and Ukraine.
Macron's vision is to use the Paris Olympics in July to bring Russia and Ukraine to a ceasefire for at least a month. During the ceasefire, France and China continued to exert influence to turn a short-term ceasefire into a long-term ceasefire, and finally bring the war to an end.
And once France takes advantage of the opportunity of the Olympics to successfully make a truce between Russia and Ukraine, then Macron's prestige as a European leader will be as high as ever. This is extremely beneficial to eliminating the influence of the United States and grasping the right to speak in the EU. Of course, all this is inseparable from China's help. Therefore, we can expect what big things will happen in the trilateral meeting next week.