In terms of the metal market:
As of the midday close, the base metals in the domestic market were mixed. Shanghai zinc rose 2.54%, refreshing a new high since February 2023 to 23,715 yuan/ton. Shanghai copper rose 1.6%, refreshing a new high since May 2006 to 82,330 yuan / ton. Shanghai lead rose 0.2%. Shanghai tin fell 0.03%, and Shanghai aluminum fell 0.44%. Shanghai nickel fell 0.61%. The main alumina futures fell 1.98%. In addition, the main industrial silicon contract rose 0.38%. The main lithium carbonate futures contract fell 2.15%.
The black series is mostly green, iron ore fell 0.46%, and thread, hot coil, and stainless steel fell slightly. In terms of double coke, coking coal fell 0.5% and coke rose 0.13%.
In terms of external metals, as of 11:34, LME metals were mixed. London tin fell 0.33%, London aluminum and London lead fell slightly, and London copper, London zinc and London nickel all rose within 0.5%.
In terms of precious metals, as of 11:34, COMEX gold fell 0.71%; COMEX silver fell 1.64%. In terms of domestic precious metals, as of the close at noon, Shanghai gold fell 0.56%, and Shanghai silver fell 1.18%.
Analysts have raised their estimates for gold prices in 2024, according to a survey, expecting rising geopolitical issues to attract investors to safe-haven assets as central banks build up their reserves, pushing gold prices higher further. A survey of 35 analysts and traders showed a median gold price estimate of $2,190.00 an ounce this year, compared to $2,250.00 in Q2 and $2,192.50 in Q3. Suki Cooper, an analyst at Standard Chartered, said: "The market's view on gold remains positive amid a spiral of geopolitical risks, rising equities, stubborn inflation and slowing expectations of interest rate cuts. (Wenhua Finance)
In addition, as of noon closing, the main futures of European line container shipping were reported at 2890 points, up 1.82%.
As of 11:34 on April 30, some futures at noon:
Spot & Fundamentals
Copper: Today, Guangdong 1# electrolytic copper spot price discount of 300 yuan/ton - 240 yuan/ton for the current month, the average discount of 270 yuan/ton was flat compared with the previous trading day, and the discount of wet copper was 380 yuan-340 yuan/ton, and the average discount of 360 yuan/ton was flat compared with the previous trading day. The average price of 1# electrolytic copper in Guangdong was 81,610 yuan/ton, up 1,340 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the average price of wet copper was 81,520 yuan/ton, up 1,340 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong's inventory has been declining for 10 consecutive days, and the decrease in arrivals is the main reason......
Steel: In April, the recovery rate of downstream demand accelerated month-on-month, the inventory of building materials maintained a rapid decline, and although the demand for real estate declined, the demand for infrastructure and manufacturing rebounded steadily, which led to the continuous growth of steel demand. In April, the Ministry of Finance and relevant departments continued to optimize and adjust the scope of investment of local government special bonds and the scope of project capital, and included more new energy, new infrastructure and new industries into the investment fields of special bonds......
Macroscopic
Domestic:
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in April, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 50.4%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, and it was in the expansion range for two consecutive months, and the manufacturing industry continued to maintain a recovery and development trend. In April, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 51.2%, down 1.8 percentage points from the previous month, still above the critical point, indicating that the non-manufacturing industry continued to expand.
[Caixin China Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.4 in April, hitting a new high since March 2023] The Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in April 2024 released on April 30 recorded 51.4, 0.3 percentage points higher than that in March, and hit a new high since March 2023, reflecting the continued acceleration of manufacturing production and business activities. (Finance Associated Press)
State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council: Accelerate the deep integration of new technologies such as artificial intelligence and the whole process and all elements of manufacturing] The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council held a meeting to promote the large-scale equipment renewal of central enterprises on April 28. Zhang Yuzhuo, Secretary of the Party Committee and Director of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council, stressed that state-owned central enterprises should implement the major deployment of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, further improve their political position, and deeply understand that promoting large-scale equipment renewal is a prerequisite for promoting technological change and industrial upgrading, and is a powerful measure to stimulate national economic growth. It is necessary to aim at building a world-class enterprise, accelerate the renewal of advanced equipment, focus on improving efficiency and efficiency, advanced production capacity, and independent and controllable capabilities, strengthen benchmarking with the global advanced level, and update a number of advanced equipment with high technology, high efficiency and high reliability; In-depth integration of all factors; accelerate the promotion of green transformation, strengthen the promotion of green equipment and equipment energy efficiency management, strengthen the docking with platform companies, and form a virtuous cycle of products from R&D and manufacturing to recycling; accelerate the promotion of intrinsic safety, increase the transformation of old devices, The application of safety technology and the application of safety equipment should reduce safety risks and hidden dangers from the source; to accelerate the strengthening of effective supply, equipment manufacturing enterprises should increase the research and development and promotion of new devices and equipment, shipbuilding enterprises should increase the research and development of new energy power ships, and related enterprises should speed up product optimization and upgrading. It is necessary to strengthen organizational leadership, make good use of support policies, advance in a steady and orderly manner, earnestly grasp all tasks, and promote the high-quality development of enterprises with large-scale equipment renewal.
On April 30, the central parity of the RMB exchange rate in the interbank foreign exchange market was 7.1063 yuan per US dollar per dollar
On the US dollar:
As of 11:34, the dollar index was at 105.84, up 0.18%. Markets are focused on the Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting, which will begin later today, as well as the US non-farm payrolls data due on Friday. The market expects the Fed to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 5.25% to 5.5% at this meeting. Inflation shows no signs of slowing or narrowing in the near term, making it challenging for Fed policymakers to determine their next steps this week. U.S. inflation data for March came in higher than expected, prompting the market to lower expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.
In terms of other currencies:
Australia's retail sales unexpectedly fell in March, with households facing the prospect of higher borrowing costs for longer. The Australian dollar fell in response. Government data released on Tuesday showed retail sales fell 0.4% from the previous month and were forecast for a 0.2% increase. Retail sales were revised down to 0.2% in February. The Australian dollar fell as much as 0.46% as the policy-sensitive 3-year Australian government bond yield extended its decline. Money market expectations for the probability of a rate hike in November were lowered to 35% from nearly 60% on Monday. The report contrasted with last week's higher-than-expected inflation data, which prompted traders to change their bets on rate cuts this year to rate hikes. Economists are sticking to their expectations for easing, although they have pushed back their expectations for the timing of the RBA's first rate cut until November. (Finance Associated Press)
In terms of data:
Today, the United States will release the Chicago PMI for April, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for April, the Eurozone core harmonized CPI for April, the preliminary SAR of GDP for the first quarter, the unemployment rate of Japan in March, the real retail sales of Germany in March, the SAR unemployment rate in April, the preliminary APY of GDP in the first quarter of the non-seasonally adjusted, the SAC GDP APY for February, and the ANZ consumer confidence index in Australia for the week ended April 28.
Note: This week's May 1st ~ May 5th coincides with the May Day holiday, and the China Shanghai Futures Exchange, DCE, Zheng Commercial Exchange, and Shanghai Gold Exchange will conduct night trading on the evening of April 30. The Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing Stock Exchange and domestic futures exchanges will open as usual from May 6 (Monday).
Crude oil: Crude oil futures fluctuated in a narrow range, as of 11:34, U.S. oil fell 0.06%, and cloth oil fell 0.05%. After the Israeli/Hamas ceasefire talks in Cairo helped calm fears of a widening conflict in the Middle East, concerns about the outlook for U.S. interest rates weighed on the oil market.
U.S. crude and refined product inventories are expected to fall last week, according to preliminary surveys released Monday. On average, the four analysts surveyed estimate that U.S. crude inventories are expected to fall by about 800,000 barrels, gasoline inventories by about 1 million barrels, and distillate inventories by about 500,000 barrels, with refinery capacity utilization expected to rise by 0.5% for the week ending April 26. The American Petroleum Institute (API) will release the crude oil inventory report at 4:30 a.m. Beijing time on Wednesday, and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release the inventory report at 22:30 on Wednesday.
Iraq's oil minister said on Monday that the country's oil exports averaged 3.42 million b/d in March and 106.112 million b/d in March.
Saudi Arabia, the largest oil exporter, is likely to raise the selling price of most crude grades to Asian customers to its highest level in five months in June, traders said Monday after Middle Eastern benchmarks strengthened this month. The official selling price of the flagship Arabian Light crude could be raised by 70-90 cents in June to $3 a barrel at a premium to the average prices in Dubai and Oman, which would be the highest since January, seven refiner sources said in the survey.