Metals rose Shanghai nickel rose 3.36% | Lead ingot social vault jumped to a 5-month high | The inventory of building materials remained rapidly decreasing
►Driven by market sentiment, copper prices rose overnight [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]
►Multi-department joint intention to launch a new real estate policy, the center of gravity of electrolytic aluminum cost side moved up [SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes]
►Lead ingot holders offer strong prices, downstream battery manufacturers are still waiting and cautious [SMM Lead Morning Meeting Minutes]
►The U.S. dollar index rose to suppress the downward trend of London zinc [SMM morning meeting minutes]
►Shanghai tin prices rose slightly in the night market, and the tin ingot import window was about to open [SMM Tin Morning News]
►Nickel salt raw material cost moved up, stainless steel futures were affected by U.S. macro data [SMM nickel morning meeting minutes]
►Short-term hot coil prices continue to fluctuate strongly [SMM Steel Morning Meeting Minutes]
►The price of lithium carbonate has been lowered, driving the cost of ternary materials down [SMM Cobalt Lithium Morning Meeting Minutes]
In terms of the metal market:
Overnight, the domestic base metals closed up across the board, Shanghai nickel rose 3.36%, and other metals rose below 1.00%. Among them, Shanghai copper and nickel brush stage reached a new high.
LME metals were mostly red, London nickel rose 2.85%, London copper rose 1.49%, London tin rose 1.20%, London lead rose 0.97%, London aluminum and zinc rose 0.40% and 0.50% respectively. Among them, the London lead and nickel brush stage reached a new high, and the London nickel brush reached a new high of 20,140 US dollars / ton since September 20, 2023.
The black series are all red, the bifocals rose by about 2.50%, and other metals rose by more than 1.00%.
Precious metals rose mixed, Shanghai gold fell 0.03%, Shanghai silver rose 1.25%; COMEX gold and silver fell 0.59% and rose 0.27% respectively.
》Metals are nearly red across the board, Shanghai nickel rose 3.36%, and bifocal rose about 2.5%.
As of 07:21 on May 17, the market is divided
》SMM metal spot price on May 16
Macroscopic
On the US dollar:
The U.S. dollar index rose 0.18% overnight. Earlier data showed that US import prices rose 0.9% in April, raising concerns that the FED's inflation fight is not over yet and could delay policymakers' plans to cut interest rates. Richmond Fed President Barkin said inflation is still not at the level it needs to be. Cleveland Fed President Mester said that keeping policy at current levels would help push inflation back to its 2% target, which is still high, adding that it would take longer than she previously thought it would take to achieve it.
Domestic:
The General Office of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the General Office of the National Development and Reform Commission, the General Office of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the General Office of the Ministry of Commerce and the General Department of the National Energy Administration issued a notice on carrying out new energy vehicles to the countryside in 2024. The notice proposes that from May to December 2024, new energy vehicle models suitable for the rural market, good reputation and reliable quality will be selected, and activities such as centralized exhibitions and demonstrations, test rides and test drives will be carried out to enrich the consumer experience and provide diversified choices. Organize charging and swapping services, financial services such as new energy vehicle underwriting, claims, and credit, as well as after-sales services such as maintenance, to go to the countryside to make up for the shortcomings of the supporting environment in rural areas. Implement support policies such as car trade-in, county-level charging and swapping facilities to make up for shortcomings, and direct "real money" discounts to consumers. Encourage all new energy vehicle manufacturers, sales enterprises, financial institutions, charging and swapping facility enterprises, sales and after-sales service enterprises to actively participate, combined with the old for the new and county-level charging and swapping facilities to make up for shortcomings and other support policies to formulate promotional plans, establish and improve the after-sales service system. >> Click here for details
For other countries:
USD/JPY rose 0.28% to 155.30, having a low of 153.6 earlier before weak Japanese economic growth data hit the yen. USD/JPY fell 1% on Wednesday. The yen has fallen about 9.5% so far this year as the Bank of Japan (BOJ) maintains an accommodative monetary policy and the Fed's higher interest rates attract funds to US Treasuries and the US dollar. The yen is particularly sensitive to the widening or narrowing of interest rate differentials.
In terms of data:
Pay attention to the annual rate of China's total retail sales of consumer goods in April on May 17, the annual rate of China's industrial added value above designated size in April, the ILO unemployment rate in France in the first quarter, the final annual rate of CPI in the euro area in April, the monthly rate of CPI in the euro area in April, and the monthly rate of the leading indicator of the Conference Board in the United States in April.
Crude oil:
Overnight, U.S. oil and cloth oil rose 0.93% and 0.83% respectively. Earlier data showed that the U.S. job market stabilized, boosting expectations that the FED could start cutting interest rates in the fall, which would stimulate the economy and boost oil demand. Total U.S. oil demand, measured by total domestic oil deliveries, rose 0.8% month-on-month but fell 0.9% year-on-year to 19.9 million b/d in April, the American Petroleum Institute (API) said in its monthly report on Thursday.
List of total inventories of LME base metal storage on May 16 (unit: ton)
List of LME Base Metals Registration and Cancellation of Warehouse Receipts on May 16 (Unit: Tons)
According to SMM, last week was the first week after May Day, and the price of the disk fell, coinciding with the post-holiday replenishment of processing enterprises, the demand for recycled copper is huge, and Linyi Metal City recycled copper traders said that they are busy after the holiday, and they continue to load and ship, and the shipment volume is larger. >> Click here for details
On May 16, SMM counted the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots of 747,000 tons, and the domestic tradable electrolytic aluminum inventory of 621,000 tons, compared with 31,000 tons last Thursday and 31,000 tons compared with this Monday, but the low level of the same period in the past seven years is no longer, and the inventory on Thursday is 7,000 tons higher than the total inventory of 740,000 tons in the same period last year. >> Click here for details
As of May 15, the SMM alumina index was 3714 yuan/ton, up 263 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, an increase of 7.62%, and an increase of 416 yuan/ton, or 12.61%, from the same period in April. According to the SMM daily cost model of alumina, as of May 15, the average complete cost of alumina in China was 2,755 yuan/ton, and the average profit of the current alumina industry reached 950 yuan/ton. >> Click here for details
According to SMM research, this week, the Shanghai lead 2405 contract entered delivery, and the holders concentrated on making warehouse receipts and moving the warehouse to deliver the warehouse, and the weekly increase of the lead ingot social warehouse was nearly 20,000 tons, reaching a 5-month high. >> Click here for details
[Recycled raw materials continue to rise, what are the reactions of recycled zinc enterprises? The main raw materials of recycled zinc, zinc oxide and zinc baked sand have been in a state of shortage, the main reason is that the operating rate of steel mills in the first quarter is not as expected, although the current start has improved, but the transmission of output still needs a certain amount of time, but the zinc price has been maintained at more than 23,000 yuan/ton, the overall high coefficient of zinc oxide, and the reduction of zinc baking sand processing costs also reflects the current situation of zinc baking sand. >> Click here for details
According to SMM research, as of Thursday, the total inventory of zinc ingots in SMM seven places was 215,000 tons, an increase of 2,100 tons from May 9 and an increase of 00,400 tons from May 13, and the domestic inventory increased. The inventory in Shanghai decreased significantly, the warehouse arrival was less during the week, and the overall inventory decreased significantly due to the downstream bargain purchase and delivery; The inventory in Guangdong decreased slightly, mainly due to the small arrival of smelter maintenance warehouses during the week, and the overall inventory decreased slightly due to the fact that the downstream just needed to pick up the goods at a point price; Inventory increased in Tianjin. >> Click here for details
According to SMM research, the output of tin solder from domestic sample enterprises in April was 9,365 tons, an increase of 8.38% from the previous month in March, and the total sample operating rate was 79.36%, an increase of 6.14 percentage points from March. The total output of the sample in May is expected to be 9,242 tons, which is expected to decrease by 1.31% month-on-month from April, and the operating rate of the total sample is expected to be 78.32% in May, down 1.04 percentage points from April. >> Click here for details
As of May 16, the total social inventory of stainless steel was about 959,500 tons, a weekly increase of 0.05%. Among them, the social inventory of 200 series stainless steel is about 264,700 tons, an increase of 0.57% from last week's inventory; The social inventory of 300 series stainless steel was about 378,200 tons, and the weekly destocking was about 1.41%; The social inventory of 400 series stainless steel was about 144,800 tons, an increase of about 1.48% week-on-week. >> Click here for details
In May, the price of mainstream stainless steel mills once again exceeded market expectations, flat at the high level of last month, and the price of high-chromium steel in Tsingshan maintained a high price of 8995 yuan/50 base tons, and the market started with high enthusiasm, and the retail price of ferrochrome also maintained a high level. The traditional consumption season "gold three silver four" arrived, steel mills received orders well, stainless steel prices rose, April output has reached a high level of 3.1663 million tons, May is expected to go further, output of 3.2817 million tons, the demand for ferrochrome has also increased, after the steel rose sharply in April, the steel recruitment in May also held a steady announcement. >> Click here for details
[The first full week after the holiday, building materials inventory maintained rapid depletion] This week, building materials maintained a rapid demobilization speed, and the total thread inventory decreased by 525,100 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 6.37%, of which the factory warehouse decreased by 4.05% month-on-month, and the social treasury decreased by 4.06% month-on-month. On the supply side, the spot profit of long-process steel mills has been compressed, but the overall cash flow performance is acceptable, and the supply of building materials in the current period has increased slightly due to the partial resumption of production in the short process. >> Click here for details
[Downstream demand has peaked, and coke may usher in a new round of reduction? ——Coke supply and demand analysis and price outlook] Coke prices rose after falling in April, after a round of price cuts at the beginning of the month, the national average price of first-class metallurgical coke (dry quenching) fell to 2010 yuan/ton, and then in the second half of April, coke prices rose rapidly for four consecutive rounds, and the national average price of first-class metallurgical coke (dry quenching) rose to 2450 yuan/ton. >> Click here for details
[The United States will impose a 25% tariff on permanent magnets from China in 2026] SMM analysis believes that due to the continuous decline in rare earth prices in recent years, overseas permanent magnet companies are facing greater operating pressure, and Japan, as the second largest producer of magnetic materials, accounts for about 10-15% of the output. >> Click here for details
[How will the market interpret the market outlook after the increase in shipments and the slight decline in rare earth prices? After the May Day holiday, supported by good news in the market, rare earth prices continued their strong trend in April. However, high raw material prices have made end buyers more cautious. Recently, rare earth prices have shown a downward trend. >> Click here for details
►SMM data increased copper inventories in mainstream areas of the country by 10,300 tons during the week
►JISCO 50 base tons of high-carbon ferrochrome in May cash purchase tax to factory price
►Xinyu Iron & Steel 50 base tons of high-carbon ferrochrome processing block (10-70mm) in May accepted the purchase price including tax
►The price of iron ore in western Liaoning may be strong and volatile
►The terminal release is acceptable This week, the hot roll social library is in a good situation
►Macro news affects the low price of hot coils, and the transaction is better
► The speed of inventory reduction of hot coil in the north may slow down or even no longer maintain the state of inventory reduction
►This week, Boxing hot coil inventory fell to 117,700 tons
►Table needs to rebound This week, the inventory of hot coils has been slightly reduced
► Divergent market sentiment Tungsten price rally has slowed down
►Hangzhou and other places have increased the property market policy, the real estate sector continues to be strong, and many stocks such as Hefei Urban Construction have a daily limit
►Added 4 kinds of iron source price points in lithium iron phosphate [SMM announcement]
► New daily trading volume of SMM hot coil from May 16 [SMM Announcement]
►Optimize the price point of the photovoltaic mounting plate [SMM announcement]
Shibor: 1.7240% overnight, down 0.30 basis points. The 7-day was at 1.8010%, down 0.70 basis points. The 3-month was at 1.9690%, down 0.60 basis points.
Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) rose 2.7% to a two-year high of $10,390 a tonne during Wednesday's European session. At the same time, the price of copper futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose more than 4% at one point, hitting a record high. Copper prices have been soaring recently, reflecting optimism about a return to growth in the U.S.-led global economy, as well as optimism about China's economy. >> Click here for details
Recently, the General Office of the People's Government of Jiangxi Province issued a notice on several measures to promote the high-quality development of the lithium battery new energy industry chain in our province. The notice proposes to continue to track the development trends of the lithium battery industry and strengthen the monitoring of the operation of the lithium battery industry's production capacity and investment. Guide upstream and downstream enterprises to strengthen the connection between supply and demand, and promote the formation of a stable and efficient coordinated development mechanism. Strengthen the prediction of the international lithium resource situation and risk early warning, rationally allocate overseas mineral resources, and disperse the concentration of imported resources. Encourage powerful enterprises to "go global", and support enterprises to invest in key resources such as lithium, cobalt, nickel and smelting projects at home and abroad. Increase the investigation and exploration of lithium resources in the province and improve the supply capacity of lithium resources in our province. Guide mining enterprises to improve the mining recovery rate, beneficiation recovery rate, and comprehensive utilization rate, and strengthen the comprehensive utilization of common and associated mineral resources. >> Click here for details
[South Africa's mining production fell 5.8% year-on-year in March, coal, manganese ore and iron ore all fell Gold was the largest contributor to growth] South Africa's National Bureau of Statistics (Stats SA) reported that the country's mining production fell 5.8% year-on-year in March. The largest negative contributors were coal (-9.1%, -2.3 percentage points), manganese ore (-12.2%, -1 percentage point), iron ore (-6.8 percent, -0.9 percentage points) and platinum group metals (-3.6%, -0.9 percentage points). >> Click here for details
[Silver ushered in the highlight moment! ] U.S. inflation cools as silver soars to 11-year high] Gold futures rose to a near one-month high on Wednesday, and silver futures rose to their highest level in more than 11 years, as U.S. government data showed consumer prices rose less than expected in April, triggering expectations of a rate cut this year. CPI rose 0.3% in April after rising 0.4% in March and February; Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3%, the smallest increase in four months. >> Click here for details
►CME raised margin requirements for copper futures trading after copper prices hit new highs this week
►The maximum price of the battery cell is 0.33 yuan/Wh! This lithium iron phosphate energy storage system project was tendered
►China Iron and Steel Association: At the end of May, the steel inventory of key statistics of iron and steel enterprises was about 16.2794 million tons, an increase of 2.51% from the previous decade
►Xingyuan Zhuo Magnesium: Magnesium alloy precision castings have not yet been applied to robot-related industries and will explore more magnesium alloy lightweight-related applications
► "Big Short" Michael Burry was heavily invested in gold in the first quarter
►On May 16, the national carbon market price rose 2.02%, and the total transaction of carbon emission allowances was 105 tons [Trading Daily]
According to the official account of the National Development and Reform Commission, the Party Group of the National Development and Reform Commission of the Communist Party of China published an article "Further Comprehensively Deepening the Reform of the Economic System and Promoting Chinese-style Modernization with High-quality Development". >> Click here for details
[Mortgage interest rates have plummeted the property market: the interest rate on the first home in Changzhou has dropped to 3.25%, Wuxi and Nanjing have dropped to 3.45%] With the opening of a new wave of destocking in various places, many cities across the country have sharply lowered mortgage interest rates, frequently releasing signals to the market to encourage buyers to buy houses. The reporter learned from a number of banks in Changzhou that the interest rate on the first home loan in Changzhou has dropped to 3.25%. A person from the housing loan department of a branch of a large commercial bank in Wuxi told reporters that the interest rate on the first home in Changzhou was 3.45%, which was recently reduced to 3.25%, a decrease of 20bp. >> Click here for details
As the world's largest producer and consumer of electric bicycles, the number of electric bicycles in mainland China has reached 350 million. Industry data shows that in 2023, enterprises above designated size will produce a total of 42.28 million electric bicycles. However, in the process of rapid development of the industry, there are also some security problems and market chaos, which urgently need to be standardized. >> Click here for details
[CEO of Honda Motor Co., Ltd.: Will invest $65 billion in electrification to reduce the cost of electric vehicles by 30%] Honda Motor Corporation (HMC. US) CEO Mibe Toshihiro said Thursday that the company will invest 10 trillion yen ($64.8 billion) in efforts to transition to electrification. Mibe told reporters that Honda also plans to reduce the manufacturing cost of electric vehicles by more than 30 percent and plans to reduce the cost of battery procurement in North America by 20 percent as part of the company's latest business plan. >> Click here for details
On May 15, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced the launch of an anti-dumping and countervailing duty investigation on crystalline silicon photovoltaic cells imported from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam, whether assembled into modules or not, in response to an application submitted by the U.S. Solar Manufacturing Trade Council on April 24, 2024. >> Click here for details
►Dali: Encourage the acquisition of stock housing as affordable housing or talent housing Counties and cities with a de-industrialization period of more than 24 months will no longer build new affordable housing
►Hefei and many other places have lowered the lower limit of the first home loan interest rate Nanjing's first home loan interest rate has been lowered to 3.45% The industry said that the mortgage interest rate can be further reduced
►Block 400! Li Auto Supercharging Station is officially launched!
►Semiconductor equipment company Haiguang Information's net profit in the first quarter increased by 20.53% year-on-year There is still a lot of room for development in the localization of chips in the mainland server market
►The consumer market further recovered, and the net profit of the 100 billion semiconductor leader in the first quarter increased by 180.5% year-on-year