Reporter | Xu Yifan
170 million Americans could lose TikTok.
A TikTok-targeting H.R. 8038 bill received overwhelming bipartisan support in Congress — the House of Representatives approved the bill 360-58 and the Senate 79-18. On April 24, President Joe Biden quickly signed it into law.
TikTok content creators gathered outside the U.S. Capitol to protest on April 23, 2024, as U.S. senators prepare to pass a TikTok-related bill
According to the requirements of the law, TikTok must find a buyer within 270 days from the date of Biden's signing, and divest it from its Chinese parent company, ByteDance, otherwise it will be removed from major mobile phone app stores in the United States, that is, banned.
It's fair to say that H.R. 8038 doesn't leave TikTok with a choice. Therefore, the outside world also calls this TikTok-related bill the "ban if you don't sell" bill.
On the evening of April 25, ByteDance issued a statement on its "Today's Headlines", saying: "The news of foreign media about ByteDance's exploration of selling TikTok is untrue, and ByteDance does not have any plans to sell TikTok." Therefore, this bill is no different from a ban for TikTok. Moreover, the platform's content recommendation algorithm is on China's export control list, and the Chinese government has said it will not allow it to be sold.
In the non-stop tech war against China, TikTok is the most visible victim of the moment. Representative Lori Trahan, Democrat of Massachusetts, summed it up accurately, "TikTok has become an agent of escalating tensions with China. ”
Trahan is cautious about banning TikTok outright. "Congress has a responsibility not to fall prey to tribalism or nationalism when it comes to technology policy. She bluntly said, "We know that there are companies in the United States that want to ban TikTok. ”
On January 31, 2024, Zhou Shouzi appeared before the Senate Judiciary Committee in Washington, D.C.
The TikTok ban was bundled and sent to the fast lane
The bipartisan congressional effort to expel TikTok coincided with a visit by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken to China. This is Blinken's second visit to China in a year, and the swiftly passed ban will inevitably cast a shadow over his trip.
China's Foreign Ministry said in a statement that the two sides reached a five-point consensus during Blinken's visit, reiterating principled positions such as strengthening communication and working to stabilize and develop relations. On specific issues, the two sides decided to hold the first meeting of the AI Dialogue and hold a high-level tourism dialogue in April.
This has become the norm in the current interaction between China and the United States: on the one hand, the two sides maintain communication and friendly tone due to frequent visits by senior US officials, and on the other hand, the US government still spares no effort to suppress and contain China in the fields of science and technology, trade, and geopolitics.
Zhuang Jiaying, a Singapore-based scholar at the Carnegie Endowment Center for China, commented to the Wall Street Journal that the movement of the TikTok bill has been very public, and the relevant measures have been discussed for months. "A lot of people are waiting with bated breath about the outcome of the TikTok incident, but there are a lot of differences between the United States and China, including on Russia-Ukraine, Taiwan and the South China Sea, and those differences may be more important. ”
The reason why TikTok's legislation has been able to pass Congress so quickly is that it is "ingenious" enough to be included in the $95 billion foreign aid package. Bundled with H.R. 8038 is the Aid Act to fund Ukraine, Israel, and U.S. Indo-Pacific allies.
On April 24, 2024, U.S. President Joe Biden spoke at the White House, where he just signed a $95 billion foreign aid appropriation bill, which included the TikTok divestment bill.
The crackdown on a social media platform may seem like a no-brainer for foreign military aid, but it's a strange bipartisan compromise in Congress.
The House of Representatives previously had a separate version of the bill against TikTok, but the legislation did not progress well and was shelved in the Senate. If the bill could be amended to link to the aid bill, it would have a better chance of passing the Senate. After all, Democrats are in a hurry to fulfill their aid pledges to Ukraine, and the justification for banning a social app no longer seems to need to be argued.
So, when the TikTok ban came at the same time as the Ukraine aid bill, both parties expressed satisfaction in order to achieve their own goals, except for a small group of far-right Republicans, whose demands for stricter border policies were far from being met.
As a result, TikTok was pushed to the forefront. Lawmakers have been skeptical of the short-form video app's ties to China and have been trying to regulate it. U.S. officials have repeatedly warned that TikTok threatens U.S. national security because the Chinese government could use it to spy on Americans, or weaponize it to covertly influence the U.S. public by amplifying or suppressing certain content.
Representative Michael McCaul, Republican of Texas, who chairs the House Foreign Affairs Committee, went so far as to claim that "the app is a spy balloon in Americans' phones" and "used to spy on and exploit Americans' personal information."
Wisconsin Republican Rep. Mike Gallagher, right, is one of the leading proponents of the TikTok bill.
TikTok has repeatedly said it has never shared U.S. user data with the Chinese government and will reject any such requests. And in order to meet the U.S. government's data security requirements, TikTok spent $1.5 billion to protect sensitive user data with the help of Oracle in an attempt to show that its platform is secure.
It is clear that these efforts have not been recognized, or could not have been. Senator Mark Warner, Democrat of Virginia and chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, said the move was not enough because it still allowed TikTok's algorithm and source code to remain in China and leave them "exploitable by the Chinese government."
The second complaint filed by the U.S. government is algorithmic bias or algorithmic manipulation. TikTok and most social media apps have algorithms that understand user interests, providing users with content that they may be interested in, and enhancing user retention, which is also TikTok's strength.
However, the U.S. government believes that such algorithms can be biased, lead people to believe certain things, and even be used to influence public opinion. In particular, on the disputed Palestinian-Israeli issue, TikTok is believed to be interested in providing users with pro-Palestinian and anti-Israeli content.
TikTok insisted that its recommended algorithm would not "take sides" and weeded the platform of all anti-Semitic content or similar hate speech. The company noted that Gallup data shows that American millennials have become increasingly sympathetic to Palestinians in recent years, a trend that predates TikTok's popularity.
It's an indisputable fact that more and more young people in the United States are using TikTok as a news source. According to the Pew Research Center, 32 percent of voters between the ages of 18 and 29 who use TikTok to get information have more than tripled since the 2020 election.
The percentage of young people who get news on TikTok is increasing.
In addition, unlike other social media users who have a declining interest in news, users on this platform have seen an increase in demand for news. Senator Marco Antonio Rubio of Florida, Republican leader on the Senate Intelligence Committee, led the way in saying that the Chinese government has the power to influence "a lot of young people" who use TikTok as their main source of news. "It's a matter of national security. Rubio said.
宪法修正案能否保住TikTok?
This isn't the first time TikTok has faced a ban crisis in the United States.
Back in 2020, then-President Donald Trump tried to crack down on the social media through an executive order. In May 2023, Montana passed a law banning TikTok over concerns that the Chinese government would use the China-based company to spy on Americans. In August of the same year, the New York City Cyber Command also determined that TikTok "poses a security threat to New York City's technology networks" and banned its use on the city's devices.
The previous lockdown crises were eventually rejected by U.S. courts or governments. In the Montana case, the court relied on the First Amendment to the U.S. Constitution. The amendment states that Congress may not enact laws restricting free speech, and the federal government is bound by this. U.S. District Judge Donald Molloy wrote in his preliminary ruling at the time that without TikTok, users "are denied the right to communicate through the way they prefer speech, so First Amendment scrutiny is appropriate."
The First Amendment is also expected to be TikTok's tool for protest this time. Many experts believe that the threshold for governments to overcome First Amendment obstacles if they want to defend their ban is high.
"The Supreme Court's longstanding jurisprudence protects Americans' First Amendment right to access information, ideas, and media abroad. Nadine Farid Johnson, director of policy at Columbia University's Knight First Amendment Institute, noted, "If TikTok were banned, the bill would violate that right and would not bring real rewards." ”
Jenna Leventoff, senior policy adviser at the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU), said before the Senate vote: "This is nothing more than an unconstitutional ban in disguise." "Banning the social media platforms that hundreds of millions of Americans use to express themselves would have devastating consequences for the rights given to us by the First Amendment, and [the ban] will almost certainly be rejected in court." ”
TikTok supporters worked hard to prevent the ban from being implemented. In April, a group of creators wrote to Biden urging him to stop the legislation.
This view has also been disputed, arguing that when national security must be considered, the courts may be more lenient and will not consider freedom of expression as a primary consideration.
In addition, the ban could be found to be in violation of the Fifth Amendment for forced sale. Senator Randal Howard "Rand" Paul, Republican of Kentucky, argues that "under the Constitution, the government cannot confiscate anyone's property without charge and conviction — in short, without violating due process." Since the Americans are part owners of TikTok, they will eventually win in court. ”
Paul wrote in an article that the law could be the starting point for the U.S. government to force the sale of other companies. "This clumsy attack on TikTok would actually give the government the power to force the sale of other companies, which is a very real danger," he argued. He predicted that the Supreme Court would eventually rule that the ban was unconstitutional.
Paul is not a China friend, he just believes that China should not be contained in this way. He argues that before Congress rushes to ban and punish every international company doing business in China, perhaps it is time to pause, take a breath and reflect on the consequences of fast-track legislative isolationism against China.
"Populist impulses are giving rise to the abandonment of international trade. I fear that in the current hysteria, the end of US-China trade will not only cost American consumers dearly, but will eventually lead to more tensions and possibly even war. Paul warned.
In fact, the United States does not take a partisan line on this issue, and there are both parties in the opposition to the ban.
Progressive members of Congress are particularly vocal about the ban. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a young Democratic representative who is very popular on social media, said that banning the app would stifle free speech in a nature that was unprecedented, while she raised questions about digital rights.
Her ally, Democratic Rep. Jamaal Bowman, is the loudest of the naysayers. He bluntly said that the criticism of TikTok is a product of Washington's groupthink. Bowman accused the Biden administration of having yet to prove that the Chinese authorities were manipulating the platform and warned of "xenophobic anti-Chinese rhetoric."
Rep. Jamal Bowman disapproves of targeting TikTok.
He argues that if there are data security concerns, a more comprehensive approach should be applied to spy on social media giants and how they collect user data, rather than targeting TikTok alone. After Russia used Facebook to influence the 2016 election, "we didn't talk about a ban on the latter," Bowman said.
It is conceivable that TikTok's struggle is long and long, and it is likely to be measured in years. "We're going to keep fighting. Michael Beckerman, TikTok's director of public policy for the Americas, wrote in a memo to U.S. employees, "This is just the beginning, not the end, of this long process." ”
TikTok CEO Zhou Shouzi also said in a video to users: "Rest assured, we won't be leaving. The facts and the constitution are on our side, and we look forward to another victory. ”
In addition to sending pop-ups to 170 million U.S. users asking for help, according to U.S. media reports, Zhou Shouzi also visited the U.S. Congress in mid-March to lobby, and his lobbying focus was the Senate.
On March 14, 2024, TikTok CEO Zhou Shouzi left the senator's office.
If TikTok can't slow down the enforcement of the ban through the legal system, there may be a last-ditch chance — the bill sets a deadline of January 19, 2025, the day before the next president takes office, and the arrival of a new government could turn the corner for TikTok.
Judging from the information disclosed so far, if all legal means are exhausted to challenge this bill and ultimately fail, TikTok would rather shut down its business in the United States than sell it to a potential American buyer.
Reuters, citing sources familiar with the matter, said that TikTok's total revenue and daily active users account for only a small part of the parent company ByteDance, and the impact on the latter's overall business is limited. In 2023, the U.S. market will only account for about 25% of TikTok's total revenue; TikTok's daily active users in the United States also account for only about 5% of the world's daily active users.
Democrats 'will lose under-35 voters'
In some people's view, the Democrats are putting TikTok in danger as a form of "political madness" because the platform is tied to the party's personality among young voters.
In an interview with Bloomberg in early March, U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo said that blocking TikTok would cause the Democrats to "effectively lose all under-35 voters forever."
However, in a later phone call with Maria Cantwell, the Senate chairwoman on business, science and transportation, she supported the legislation, arguing that action should be taken on the so-called "threat" posed by TikTok.
Despite the abrupt turn, Raimondo's concerns are real. Bowman, TikTok's biggest supporter on Capitol Hill, also said, "What if these young voters stay home or choose the Republican Party? Young voters are the reason why we were able to maintain a decent House of Representatives in 2022 and be almost equal [with Republican seats]." ”
Since the beginning of this year, Democrats have frequently regarded TikTok as a new canvassing position, and have injected a lot of money, after all, there are a large number of young people here. According to a poll released by NBC in February this year, the proportion of young TikTok users (18 to 34 years old) who support the Democratic Party (47%) is significantly higher than that of the Republican Party (30%).
However, Biden is not very popular among this group. According to the same poll, Biden's approval rating among young TikTok users is only 23%, which is lower than the overall approval rating of the Democratic Party.
Therefore, Biden signed the bill quickly on the one hand, and on the other hand, he still used this platform to gather popularity. Biden registered his campaign account @BidenHQ February and now has more than 266,000 followers, while the Democratic Party has nearly 530,000 followers @thedemocrats.
The ban bill came after the Biden campaign lashed out at Mr. Trump on his TikTok account and posted a video of his cuts to Social Security spending that garnered thousands of likes. However, user comments focused on a potential ban on the platform, with one commenting, not without irony, saying, "Thankfully, we saw this on TikTok." ”
Democrats have been diligently using social media to leverage voters, and platforms such as TikTok, YouTube, and Facebook are the focus of their efforts. Back in the 2022 midterm elections, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) used TikTok's influence.
They invited TikTok influencers to Washington, D.C., to meet with senior government officials, interact with former President Barack Obama, and visit landmarks such as the Capitol and the Oval Office. As part of the Democratic campaign, these events were also posted on TikTok.
Earlier, the White House invited influencers on the platform to work with them, using their influence to encourage people to get vaccinated and to combat rumors about vaccines. The effect of this move has been significant, and a large number of influencers have seen a significant increase in vaccination rates when they post similar information during the same period.
However, yesterday, the canvassing tools and partners that were used to demonstrate a pro-people posture have become a hidden danger that threatens US national security and manipulates public opinion. This worries TikTok loyalists and, to some extent, Biden's re-election prospects.
Perhaps knowing that this is not a wise strategy, the Democrats have emphasized that TikTok is offered a sale option while deliberately circumventing the bill's direct impact on the election — they advocated for an extension of the TikTok sale period to one year in the legislation, meaning that the dust will settle until at least after the election. Until then, it does not affect politicians to continue to use this platform to interact with young voters.
Mr. Trump, too, wanted to take advantage of it, and he immediately sided with the youngsters, declaring in an interview, "Frankly, TikTok has a lot of people who like it." There are a lot of little kids on TikTok who would go crazy without it. He seems to have forgotten that he had also taken action on TikTok when he was president, only that its executive order was later declared null and void by a federal court.
Another reason he opposes the ban is his concern that Facebook's parent company, Meta, will make a profit. Trump has a long-standing feud with Meta, having been banned from the platform after the 2020 election.
Once banned, who takes advantage and who suffers?
If TikTok is unable to preserve itself in the U.S. market, more Chinese companies operating in the U.S. will be at risk. Kash Patel, a commentator for the Washington Times, claimed that Temu, an e-commerce platform run by a Chinese company, is worse than TikTok because Temu "does not employ any data security personnel in the United States."
But more directly affected are the 170 million users in the United States and the 7 million small businesses that make their living on the platform, as TikTok is a lucrative platform that contributes $24 billion a year to the U.S. economy, according to its statement. In 2023 alone, small and micro businesses on TikTok supported 224,000 jobs and contributed $5.3 billion in tax revenue.
Deborah Mayer has been selling new and second-hand handbags and other designer goods from her New Jersey home for 16 years. She settled on TikTok early last year. She said her sales have increased by 50 percent since October last year, all thanks to live streaming on TikTok. Today, Ms. Mayer relies on TikTok for 60% of her income, and the ban could be devastating to her livelihood. "We put a lot of time and effort into building this platform. Mayer, 52, said, "[The ban] will undo my work for the past year." ”
Jasmine Enberg, chief analyst at research firm eMarketer, believes that the TikTok ban has had a greater impact on small and micro businesses in the United States than it did a few years ago. Emberg said that while Instagram and YouTube have both launched short-form video products to compete, "they have never been able to crack the magic formula of TikTok videos to drive sales."
Instagram Reels 一直在抢占 TikTok 的市场份额。
Many content producers also rely on TikTok for their income, and many influencers will open accounts on major social media platforms at the same time, and TikTok brings the most significant income. There are even quite a few people who have gone from part-time to full-time creators on this platform. The impact will even ripple through Canada, where TikTok influencers are also mostly from the United States.
Many businesses that rely on TikTok to market their products have had to consider alternatives, such as going to other platforms to pave their way, but they won't give up until TikTok disappears completely. Many musicians and advertisers have said that they will always stand with TikTok as partners.
As Emberg puts it, "While you can copy technology, you can't really copy culture, and people don't necessarily behave the same way they do on TikTok on another platform." ”
A lot of content creators and small businesses rely on TikTok for their income.
Quite a few people mentioned that after TikTok was banned in India, many users still use it through VPNs. Marijus Briedis, a cybersecurity expert in the United States, told Newsweek that the demand for VPNs from users in the United States is likely to surge after the ban is issued, and that "after the ban on ChatGPT in Italy last year, the top 10 VPN app installs increased by more than 400%."
In the eyes of the outside world, once TikTok is banned, social platforms such as YouTube, Facebook and Instagram will benefit the most from the departure of this formidable competitor.
Scott Devitt, an analyst at Wedbush Securities, a well-known U.S. investment bank, said: "If TikTok exits the U.S., Meta is expected to be the main beneficiary of its revenue redistribution, and Google may become the second largest beneficiary." ”
A recent survey of TikTok users found that 60 percent would switch to Facebook or Instagram and 19 percent to YouTube if the platform was banned, DeWitt said. Other platforms such as Snapchat and Pinterest may also get a piece of the pie.
YouTube is currently the most popular social platform for American teenagers. According to a Pew Research Center survey, 90 percent of U.S. teens use the app, followed by TikTok (63 percent), Snapchat (60 percent) and Instagram (59 percent). Compared to a decade ago, teens are much less enthusiastic about using Facebook and X (formerly Twitter).
X owner Elon Musk is also opposed to banning TikTok. "In my opinion, TikTok should not be banned in the United States, although such a ban would benefit Platform X. Doing so is contrary to freedom of speech and expression, which is not the value that the United States stands for. He wrote on his X account.