Recently, there have been some dramatic changes on the battlefield between Russia and Ukraine. The U.S. aid bill to Ukraine, which had been stuck for half a year, was finally belatedly passed in the Senate and House of Representatives. Although of the more than 60 billion military aid, more than 20 billion is used to replenish the US military's stocks, more than 10 billion is used to pay for the US military's operations in Europe, and less than 14 billion is actually allocated to Ukraine to buy arms, but for Kyiv, something is better than nothing.
But after the money was in place, to the surprise of many, the situation in Ukraine on the battlefield did not improve, and it seems to be getting worse and worse. On April 28, less than a week after the American money "arrived", the supreme commander of the Ukrainian army publicly admitted that the Ukrainian army had retreated from three villages in Donetsk Oblast. On the same day, the Russian side announced that it had captured Novobakhmutovka in the region.
This news of the Ukrainian army has hit the morale of many US and Western politicians who are looking forward to the "victory signal". A former U.S. Army colonel said that Ukraine is facing a "clear defeat", and at the current pace of retreat, it will not be long before the Russian army will move straight to Odessa, and Ukraine will only be left with Kyiv.
Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Alexander Syrsky
The Swiss media also published an article pointing out that the morale of the Ukrainian army on the front line has collapsed, and the soldiers "do not believe that they can win", even if the news of the "renewal" of the United States cannot reverse this pessimism. Although there is an atmosphere of "quick victory and quick defeat" in the US and Western media.
However, if we judge this conflict rationally, we might as well make a simple prediction: Ukraine will definitely lose in the end, but not necessarily so quickly, at least to survive the counteroffensive organized by Russia this spring and summer. Judging from the situation on the front line, although Ukraine's retreat is not good-looking, it is actually a wise choice.
Zelensky had previously forced his soldiers to stay on the front line without retreating in order to get assistance from the United States and the West, and when he was obviously at an overwhelming firepower disadvantage, he still had to rely on sending the heavenly spirit cover to maintain the so-called "confidence" of the West in the war situation. Judging from the battle line map released by the Finnish open source intelligence community, the current front line in Ukraine is full of battle groups, the tactical grouping is quite chaotic, and the battle sequence is not clear.
Zelensky
This situation is directly related to Zelensky's gritted teeth fighting a political battle and asking for money from the United States and the West. Now that the money in Europe and the United States has arrived, the IQ will occupy the high ground, and you can take a more rational route to shrink your troops. There is a saying that if you save people and lose land, everyone will gain all of them, and if you lose people, you will lose all of them. Zelensky has always done the first half of the sentence in the first half of this year, and now it can be regarded as a little bit of the second half of the sentence.
Of course, this is not to say that Ukraine will win in the end, but if Zelensky can withstand the pressure of the current decline of the United States and the West in the next few weeks, withdraw troops and shrink the defense line step by step, then Ukraine's rout may drag on from this spring and summer for another six months to a year.
After all, objectively Russia and Ukraine are fighting for consumption, and Ukraine, which has suffered a great loss of vitality and an industrial system that has been basically destroyed in the past six months, and can only rely on blood transfusions from the United States and the West, cannot consume Russia in any way. If this is the case, Zelensky will face a serious problem of how to get past the US election in November this year.
Ukrainian army
At present, Biden and Zelensky's attitude on the Ukraine issue is actually tending to be the same, that is, dragging. Russia has openly stated that it will not "exchange territory for assets", and the implication is that the places where the Russian army has fought will never spit out again. The situation has developed to this point, Ukraine will not be able to win, and it can be regarded as a "surprise" to be able to hold Odessa.
Zelensky is now beginning to delay and allow the front line to shrink his forces, which can be regarded as the last bargaining chip in his hands to negotiate with the United States and the West. After all, if he really lost all the soldiers, the only thing that awaited him might be to commit suicide with eight shots in the back.
Preserving a certain amount of troops and land, continuing to serve as a bridgehead for the confrontation between NATO and Russia, and at the same time turning Ukraine into a new source of Eastern European terrorism export to Russia, may be the best "destination" for Zelensky now. According to Russian media sources, NATO has begun to send instructors to secretly train the Ukrainian army on how to engage in maritime sabotage in Ukraine.
Trump
Biden's procrastination is more because he can't let the Russia-Ukraine conflict that he single-handedly contributed to smash into his hands. If Ukraine really collapses, let alone Biden, and the Democratic Party behind him will probably be poked in the backbone by the Republicans in the future US elections. However, there is one obstacle in the road they are dragging on, and that is Trump.
Trump has a clear isolationist leaning and has always opposed the bottomless pit of money for Ukraine. The benefits that Ukraine has been conveying for many years have basically been pocketed by the Democratic Party, and the Republicans have not received much. Once he wins the election in November this year, it may be difficult for Zelensky to ask for money from the United States.
Therefore, Zelensky and Biden are busy with one thing, that is, while Biden is still in office, they will sign a 10-year long-term aid plan with the United States to ensure that Ukraine will not be "run out of food" because of the change of dynasty in the White House. And that's where China needs to be careful.
Zelensky, Biden
According to the bipartisan atmosphere in the United States, even if Biden does reach a document of intent with Zelensky in the coming months, the Republican Party will not let it pass easily after it is submitted to Congress. At this time, the Democratic Party is bound to launch a new round of public opinion offensive around Ukraine to force the Republican Party to turn.
For example, before the House of Representatives voted on the Ukraine aid bill last week, the Democratic media collectively shouted that Ukraine would be doomed if no more money was given. According to this routine, in order to promote this new agreement on long-term aid to Ukraine, the Democratic Party will definitely carry out a new wave of public opinion, hyping up the benefits that the United States will get because of this round of aid to Ukraine, which will make Russia suffer.
But as mentioned above, the Ukrainian army's defense can still be delayed, and it will be difficult for them to win the battle. Therefore, the victory that Biden is most likely to "shape" is likely not to be on the battlefield but off-the-battlefield. For example, finding ways to put pressure on Sino-Russian trade, causing fluctuations in Russia's economic conditions, or advocating "diplomatic isolation" of Russia.
Spokesperson of the Chinese Foreign Ministry
In this way, Biden's story of "we seem to be the wronged leader, but in fact, we used Ukraine to consume China and Russia, and the United States made blood" has room to continue. Of course, this practice of opening one's eyes and telling nonsense will not last long. But Biden didn't need to delay for long, just to make sure he could fool him into a second term in November.
Therefore, it cannot be ruled out that the Biden administration will resort to a stupid trick of putting pressure on China in order to achieve a "spiritual victory". In fact, the United States already has signs of this. Blinken and Yellen have recently frequently talked about Sino-Russian trade, accusing China of exporting so-called "dual-use goods" to Russia, and threatening sanctions against Chinese banks.
The conflict in Ukraine is nearing its end. But the closer to the finale, the more likely Biden and Zelensky, the two gamblers who lost red-eyed, to use "off-the-plate tricks", and the more variables things will develop. China must remain vigilant and guard against the emergence of a situation that "harms the fish in the pond".
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