Mei Yonghong, often known as "Uncle Mei" in the industry, graduated from Huazhong Agricultural University with a major in agronomy, worked in the Ministry of Agriculture and the Ministry of Science and Technology for more than 20 years, and served as the mayor of Jining City, Shandong Province. In 2015, Uncle Mei resigned from public office and joined BGI, successively served as the chairman of BGI Agriculture and the first director of the National Gene Bank, and is currently the executive director of BGI Group, the chairman of Shenzhen Huagu Bioeconomics Research Institute, and the president of Beidahuang Group Research Institute.
Uncle Mei said: Insight 2050 tries to trace the thread of "future agriculture", and it is obvious that Mei Yonghong, who was born in agronomy and has been tied to agriculture for half his life, has a more comprehensive and in-depth thinking.
The conversation between 35 Dou and Uncle Mei began with the seed industry, which has set off great changes in biotechnology.
"China's seed industry is not only a technical problem"
Mei Yonghong works for BGI, the world's largest genomics R&D institution Source: BGI's official website
Seeds are the "chips" of agriculture, and the combination of "biotechnology + artificial intelligence + big data" technology will bring breeding into the 4.0 era.
But Uncle Mei said: "Many people think that China's seed industry is a technical problem, but I think, and even more and more, that the main problem of the seed industry is not a technical problem." ”
The first is to trace back to the source, is the seed industry an industry?
If we think that the seed industry is an industry, we must act in accordance with the laws of the industry and answer the questions related to the industry: where is the market, where is the demand, what is the business model, and how to form a closed loop of value?
In the past, most of the thinking problems were a linear model of "technology-product-application", which can also be regarded as a product of the planned economic system. This is no longer suitable for the current law of industrial development, and market-oriented and demand-oriented technological progress has gradually become the mainstream.
In addition, there are also issues of business model and industrial environment, such as how to protect intellectual property rights, and how to match application scenarios?
Taking large multinational seed enterprises as an example, their business models are not limited to seed sales, but extend to the means of production and production services around the seed industry, and even extend to the services of the overall industrial system. However, the vast majority of seed companies in the mainland are still integrated with breeding, breeding and promotion, which not only lacks differentiation, is difficult to form an effective professional division of labor, but also cannot expand the industrial chain and profit boundaries.
At present, China's agricultural small-scale peasant economy also makes the seed industry highly dispersed and has no reasonable industrial concentration. "To be sure, I think it will be difficult to grow valuable and internationally competitive seed enterprises without breaking through the highly fragmented smallholder economy, and companies or other capital forces are not willing to invest more resources in seed research and development if they do not protect intellectual property rights more effectively. Uncle Mei said.
All of the above is not limited to technical issues.
In the article "The Innovation Ability of Mainland Seed Industry Enterprises Continues to Increase" published by Guangming Daily, it was mentioned that the total R&D investment of crop seed industry enterprises in 2022 will be 6.5 billion yuan. According to Bayer's 2022 annual financial report, crop science research and development expenses were 2.876 billion euros (about 22.25 billion yuan). If we make a simple and intuitive comparison, the total R&D investment of Chinese seed enterprises is about 30% of the R&D investment of a Bayer company, and the competition here is not at all above the same magnitude.
Wan Jianmin, academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering and former vice president of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, once said in public that "the gap between the mainland's biotechnology research and development capabilities and the United States is still relatively obvious." "Although the mainland has the second largest number of patents in the world, the high-value patents in the United States are 30.7 times that of the mainland, and the United States accounts for 70% of the core patents in biotechnology. "Therefore, the mainland is a big country in biotechnology research and development, but it is not the source of core technology. ”
Therefore, Uncle Mei believes that the problem of China's seed industry should not be attributed too much to technical problems, and even think that throwing money at technology and scientists can solve the problem of seed industry, which is a cognitive misunderstanding. What China's seed industry really needs is to return to the origin of the industry and return to the laws of the industry.
Synthetic biology, facility farming, where are the opportunities in agriculture?
How can agriculture be modernized?
"Referring to the process of industrialization, modernization must be the result of the gathering and holding up of many high-end elements, which requires the close integration of capital, technology, talent, information, management and other elements. Uncle Mei explained the path of modernization in this way.
Recently, Mei Yonghong participated in the Shenzhen Federation of Science and Technology Workers and gathered with scientific and technological personnel Source: Photo provided by the interviewee
Technology is the focus of the conversation. New technologies such as synthetic biology are deeply involved in the field of agriculture and food, bringing high-speed iteration of technologies and products. Uncle Mei gave a high degree of affirmation: "I am very optimistic about the prospects of synthetic biology, and it must bring subversion." He further said: "In the future, after we introduce synthetic biology and even artificial intelligence in the future, the whole concept of breeding will undergo subversive changes, and a high degree of digitalization and intelligence will subvert the past experience-based research and development methods, and transform into a customized breeding based on demand, integrating excellent traits through large models and artificial intelligence, and then realizing it through artificial synthesis." ”
Through the artificial synthesis of high-quality protein and starch, it will also form a substitution at the product level, which ultimately points to the subversion of human production and lifestyle.
In addition to synthetic biology, the second opportunity point pointed out by Uncle Mei is facility agriculture.
Shouguang City Modern Agricultural High-tech Experimental Demonstration Base. (File picture) Source: Economic Daily
For example, greenhouse agriculture represented by Shouguang in Shandong Province has become more and more intelligent in controlling temperature, humidity, water and fertilizer, and other conditions, while in Xinjiang, Gansu and other northwest agricultural areas, the development of "Gobi agriculture" and "desert agriculture" depends on the creative development of new unique technical methods such as water saving, fertilizer saving, and heat preservation.
Large-scale creates demand for facility agriculture, intelligence creates demand for facility iteration, and new cultivated land development puts forward innovative demand for agricultural facilities. Uncle Mei said: "We must believe in the wisdom of Chinese farmers and the creativity of grassroots technicians, there are many similar scenarios, but they need to be summarized and improved." ”
In addition, "agriculture + popular science" and "agriculture + urban" are also very suitable for the development direction of China's agricultural diversity, but more policy flexibility is needed - according to the local resource endowment, adjust the development model according to local conditions, and form differences between different regions, which will be more in line with the actual conditions of China's agriculture and can better promote the efficient development of China's agriculture.
"Agriculture is being turned upside down. "I can't say how long this situation will take, maybe it's a long, intertwined, coexisting process, but the form of agriculture is really changing, and this subversion is actually happening." ”
"Do you think you can make money by entering agriculture now?"
We gave a very direct question, and Uncle Mei smiled and said: "Actually, we don't need to think about it for the enterprise, the entrepreneur will definitely calculate this account." But he pointed out that there are two key points involved: one is that the agricultural production level should be built on scale, and the other is that agricultural enterprises should pay attention to extending the large agricultural industrial chain integrating primary, secondary and tertiary industries.
Intensification, the first step towards agricultural modernization
"Intensification is a problem that must be faced and solved by any industry at a certain stage, and agriculture is no different. Uncle Mei said, "As long as agriculture is regarded as an industry, we must answer the question of whether we can achieve a high degree of intensification and scale, and we must look at this issue very objectively and rationally - there must be no way out for the small-scale peasant economy, and I think it is completely unthinkable to realize agricultural modernization at the level of a small-scale peasant economy."
The question of China's agricultural intensification has reached a point where it must be answered, but the answer to this question is by no means "one size fits all". China's land is vast, and there are obvious differences between different regions, so it should be a reform model to explore different systems for different places, and "move towards intensification according to local conditions".
It is worth noting that land services represented by land trusteeship can be regarded as an effective exploration. Some professional households or enterprises have entered the market to carry out land trusteeship services to provide farmers with "menu" production services. In particular, under the service of "full trust", the unified operation of the whole process of cultivation, management and harvesting and even processing has been basically achieved, and to a certain extent, intensive management at the service level has also been realized.
Putting aside the form, Uncle Mei emphasized: "What I want to say in particular is that we should support such explorations, and we should support the exploration of various forms and systems in different regions in the direction of promoting the intensification and scale of China's agriculture." ”
Where is the way out for food safety?
"Internationalization is a strategic fulcrum that China's agriculture must establish. Uncle Mei's statement is full of conclusive decisions.
As we all know, "China feeds 21% of the world's population with 7% of the world's land", which is a classic topic for discussing agricultural development and food security. However, there is no shortage of arable land and fresh water in the world as a whole, such as Southeast Asian countries, the Russian Far East, Africa and other places. Uncle Mei believes that China's future food security will depend not only on self-sufficiency, but also on the extent and manner in which global resources are utilized.
According to statistics compiled by Sina Finance, in April 2009, the Japanese government took the lead in holding the Overseas Agricultural Investment Promotion Conference, and then promulgated the "Guidelines for Promoting Overseas Agricultural Investment to Ensure Food Security" to encourage Japanese enterprises to increase overseas agricultural investment, covering production, purchase, circulation, export and other fields. For example, at the end of 2009, Japan's Mitsui purchased 100,000 hectares of farmland in Brazil to grow soybeans, "an agreement alone that covers an area equivalent to 2% of the arable land in mainland Japan."
In mid-January 2008, South Korea's Daewoo Logistics announced that it would lease 1.3 million hectares of farmland to the African island nation of Madagascar for 99 years to grow crops to meet domestic demand. According to one estimate, "the deal takes up almost half of the island's land suitable for farming." ”
In the same year, 15 Indian companies, led by the National Trading Corporation of India, began negotiations to lease farmland in countries such as Paraguay, Uruguay and Brazil. At the same time, Indian companies have also purchased cash crop estates in Myanmar, Indonesia and other countries.
At the same time, according to the Land Matrix database, as of October 2019, a total of 1,690 overseas farmland investment projects have been completed worldwide, mainly in Africa, Asia, Eastern Europe and South America, with a total area of 49,865,500 hectares. Chinese enterprises have invested in 260 overseas farmland projects in 49 countries around the world, with a total area of 14,251,200 hectares, including 134 production projects with a total area of 971,800 hectares.
"Overseas cultivated land" has become a common choice for many countries to make up for the shortage of domestic cultivated land, and the competition here is not another "grain and grass first".
"The boundaries of agriculture are changing," said Uncle Mei, adding that agricultural production links, production tools, industrial boundaries and even trade boundaries are constantly being broken through, "so we increasingly need to establish a concept of big agriculture, in which a global vision is indispensable."
An important experience of China's modernization is to open up, enter the international market, and make use of international resources. In terms of bulk products alone, oil, natural gas, iron ore, and aluminum ore, which have strategic value, are also imported in large quantities, and the same is true for grain. Uncle Mei believes that the mainland now imports as much as 150 million tons (or so) of grain every year, and it is mainly based on trade, which is not internationalization in the true sense.
In the final analysis, when it comes to "the way out", food security and food security require greater use of external agricultural resources. This "utilization" should not be a simple trade relationship, but need to improve the stability and control of the entire agricultural industry chain. Now controlled by the four major grain merchants of the "ABCD", China's involvement and control over arable land, services, trading, processing, logistics and other aspects is very limited, and this situation needs to be changed urgently.
Four key words and three expectations for the future of agriculture
"The 21st century is the century of BT technology. Regarding the discussion of the future, Uncle Mei said in a confident voice, "The track of bioeconomy is a historical opportunity that China must and can grasp." Closely following the mission of the times of "realizing the Chinese dream of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation", achieving the parallel or even leading in the BT field will be an opportunity to change the problem of "stuck neck" caused by following all the way in the IT era. He said: "The Chinese dream is not a simple expansion of the existing scale of production, but a new basis of productivity to achieve change. Modern agriculture is one of the important directions of BT."
For the more boundary "future agriculture", Uncle Mei put forward four key words:
The first is "intensification". As mentioned many times before, it is impossible not to talk about intensification as long as we talk about industry. As long as qualitative agriculture is an industry, intensification is the most important basis for it. "If China's agriculture does not answer the question of intensification, agricultural modernization will not work. Uncle Mei believes that this issue determines the future direction of agriculture.
The second is "technology". The technology that Uncle Mei emphasized is not just articles, patents and even new variety rights, but whether it can solve practical problems and whether it can be applied more to agricultural practice. "Looking at the experience of various countries, in the future, agriculture must introduce more market elements and play the role of enterprises. ”
The third is "peasants". "I am more concerned about the issue of peasant income. Uncle Mei said objectively, "If farmers do not have returns close to the social average, it is a fantasy for China's agriculture to go all the way." He stressed that the current environment is completely different from the closed society of the past, and "farmers can vote with their feet". Uncle Mei believes that this is a question that needs to be confronted and answered directly at the policy level, which may involve specific issues such as land capitalization, grain price increases, and the decline of the peasant population.
Fourth, "internationalization". It is inevitable and necessary for China's agriculture to go out, but it is only a question of how to go about it. Is it to do a simple international trade, or to have greater control and voice in the stability and security of the supply chain? Uncle Mei believes that this is a question that needs to be answered from a strategic level.
As for the expectations for the future of agriculture, Uncle Mei said earnestly: "I think that no matter how far China develops, agriculture is a big industry and a strategic industry that we cannot avoid and ignore. I hope that all people will be aware of this."
After that, he sighed with some emotion: "It is not easy for China's agriculture to get to today, and how many steps we have crossed is the result of several generations of struggle, and it is not easy to come by." At the same time, he also mentioned that the gap between us and developed countries still objectively exists, "these problems require us to be down-to-earth, with breakthrough and pioneering thinking to face and change, and we must have the courage and wisdom to solve these problems." ”
Mei Yonghong's scenery outside the window of Shenzhen office Source: Photo courtesy of Chen Ying
Looking out of the window of Mei Yonghong's Shenzhen office, surrounded by high-rise buildings with dark glass curtains, the only low-rise building is the Shenzhen Civic Center with a full sense of design, green asphalt roads, and shuttle traffic, all of which are in line with the urban impression of Shenzhen as a "frontier of innovation".
In conflict with the "fast-paced" urban scene, when Uncle Mei was thinking about the eternal future of agriculture, the third point he put forward was: "In the process of China's agriculture moving toward modernization, Chinese peasants must not be marginalized!" He stressed that China's agricultural reform and development must be carried out around the peasants, and we must not "see things without seeing people."
He said: "China's hundreds of millions of peasants must be placed in the most central position of the entire agricultural market and the entire agricultural policy system. The sincere and determined demeanor is very touching, and this sentence alone can better understand the background of the word "Uncle Mei".
Note: If the data in the article involves 35 interviews with reporters, they are all provided and confirmed by the interviewees.