The bull market flag bearer set off the tide of price limits, and the brokerage ETF (512000) soared 6.44%, fund managers: mergers and acquisitions are expected to be one of the few main lines this year, focusing on the thematic opportunities of events

Interface News

2024-04-29 10:29Published on the official account of Anhui Jiemian News

Last Friday (2024.4.26), the "bull market flag-bearer" had a rare daily limit, Guosheng Financial Holdings, China Galaxy, CICC and other 8 shares collectively rose to the limit, and the top ETF in the sector - Brokerage ETF (512000) soared in volume and price, not only the price on the market soared by 6.44%, the highest single-day increase since July 29, 2023, and won the top 5 ETF increases in the whole market, and at the same time, the volume and energy surged by 376% month-on-month to 1.381 billion yuan, setting a new high in single-day turnover in the year.

Just the day before, the sector ushered in heavy good news: the State Council issued a report on the research and handling of the review opinions of the special report on the management of state-owned assets of financial enterprises and the rectification and accountability, proposing that state-owned capital should concentrate on building a "national team" in the financial industry and "timely and reasonably adjust the proportion of state-owned financial capital in banking, insurance, securities and other industries".

Feng Chencheng, fund manager of brokerage ETF (512000), pointed out that the current policy guidance is becoming clearer and clearer, and the sound of action is approaching: since last year's Central Financial Work Conference proposed to "cultivate first-class investment banks and investment institutions" and "support large state-owned financial institutions to become better and stronger", the China Securities Regulatory Commission issued the "Opinions on Strengthening the Supervision of Securities Companies and Public Funds and Accelerating the Construction of First-class Investment Banks and Investment Institutions" on March 15 after the two sessions It is proposed that about 10 high-quality head institutions will be formed in five years, and 2-3 institutions in the forefront of the world will be formed in ten years. The new "National Nine Articles" continue the timetable and roadmap of the China Securities Regulatory Commission to build a first-class investment bank, and propose to "support leading institutions to enhance their core competitiveness through mergers and acquisitions, organizational innovation, etc., and encourage small and medium-sized institutions to develop differently and operate with characteristics".

At present, in terms of total assets, the top 5 global investment banks are all US/Japanese companies, and it is a better way to benchmark against world-class financial companies and promote leading securities companies to become stronger and better. With the "report" proposed, after the mergers and acquisitions that have been exposed before the regional brokerages, the new round of thematic opportunities for events that generate imagination space has increased.

In addition, on the same day, Guolian Securities announced that it planned to absorb and merge Minsheng Securities by way of share exchange. At present, Guolian Securities has reached a cooperation intention with 45 shareholders who hold a total of 95.48% of the shares of Minsheng Securities, including Guolian Group. In December last year, the China Securities Regulatory Commission approved the application for the change of major shareholders of Minsheng Securities.

Feng Chencheng pointed out that the integration of Guolian Securities Minsheng Securities plan to promote high efficiency, the integration of the acceleration of the rest of the equity changes or potential mergers and acquisitions of the possibility of securities has played a good role in guidance and demonstration, to the market to send a positive signal, Guolian mergers and acquisitions document disclosure or become a beginning, the number of future brokerage equity transfer and rhythm may exceed expectations.

Strict supervision and strict management and bigger and stronger are two aspects that go hand in hand under the high-quality development of the brokerage industry, and the prudent development of high capital consumption business and the steady promotion of business innovation in the industry mean that the profit model relying on balance sheet expansion is temporarily declining. Without too many thematic opportunities for innovative business, M&A expectations are one of the few main lines in the brokerage industry this year. At present, there are few positions in the brokerage sector (as of the end of the first quarter of 2024, the position of the brokerage sector in the public fund stock investment is only 0.46%), and the PB valuation of the sector last Thursday (4.25) is in the 10-year 0% quantile (static PB is only 1.18), which once again ignites the enthusiasm for mergers and acquisitions in the market, correcting the excessive pessimistic expectations of the market, and the brokerage ETF (512000) rose sharply on Friday, which is also the time when the sector has been squeezed for too long, and there needs to be an opportunity to make up for it. In addition, the bank index in the large financial sector has been rising, but the brokerage index has been falling, and the yield difference between the two in the past month reached 13% on Thursday.

Looking ahead, Feng Chencheng believes that the overall valuation level of the brokerage sector has a high safety cushion, and there is a lot of room for valuation improvement. The supply-side reform of the industry will have a long-term and far-reaching impact on the entire industry by catalyzing the concentration of the brokerage industry.

According to public information, the brokerage ETF (512000) tracks the CSI All-Index Securities Company Index, including 50 listed brokerage stocks with one click, of which nearly 6 percent of the positions are concentrated in the top ten leading brokerages, and the "big asset management" + "big investment bank" leaders gather; the other 4 into the positions take into account the high elasticity of the performance of small and medium-sized brokerages, absorbing the characteristics of small and medium-sized brokerages with high explosive phases, and is a high-efficiency investment tool that concentrates on the layout of head brokerages and takes into account small and medium-sized brokerages at the same time.

Data sources: Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges, Wind, Huabao Fund, GF Securities, Founder Securities, etc.

Risk Warning: Brokerage ETF passively tracks the CSI All-Index Securities Company Index, which is released on 2013.7.15 on June 29, 2007, and bank ETF passively tracks the CSI Bank Index, which is released on 2004.12.31 and released on 2013.7.15. The composition of the index constituents will be adjusted in accordance with the rules of the index. The index constituents in this article are for illustration purposes only, and the individual stock descriptions are not intended as investment advice of any kind, nor do they represent the position information and trading trends of any fund under the manager. The risk level of brokerage ETFs and bank ETFs assessed by fund managers is R3-medium risk, which is suitable for investors with balanced (C3) and above. Any information appearing in this article (including but not limited to individual stocks, comments, forecasts, charts, indicators, theories, any form of expression, etc.) is for reference only, and investors shall be responsible for any investment behavior determined independently. In addition, any opinions, analysis and forecasts in this article do not constitute any form of investment advice to the reader, nor do they assume any responsibility for any direct or indirect losses arising from the use of the content of this article. Fund investment is risky, the past performance of the fund is not indicative of its future performance, and the performance of other funds managed by the fund manager does not constitute a guarantee of the performance of the fund, so fund investment should be cautious.

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