In the polls of the election, Biden's approval rating has been tied with Trump's. What's going on?
On April 24, the website of the U.S. Capitol Hill reported that the latest election poll on the website of the decision-making desk headquarters (DDHQ) was that Biden and Trump both had 41.3% support. According to a recent poll conducted by The Economist magazine and YouGov, both Trump and Biden have 43% support. The latest poll from Quinnipiac University puts both Trump and Biden at 37 percent.
Although there are differences in the specific numbers, one result is the same, that is, in the three polls, Trump and Biden are all equal. This is a big victory for Biden. Since the U.S. election began last year, Trump's approval ratings have been ahead of Biden.
What's the point of talking about these things? What happens to the U.S. election, we don't care. Biden and Trump, whoever comes to power is all the way. In fact, I am not very concerned about who will come to power Biden or Trump. However, this incident has a great impact on US domestic and foreign policy. Why do you say that? Biden is the president of the current administration, and what is the biggest thing for Biden right now? Everything is long, and this is the only thing that is great, and he will be re-elected. Since this matter is the top priority for Biden and the Democratic Party, then all domestic and foreign policies must serve and be subordinated to the election. From the change in the popularity of the election, we can analyze what Biden's domestic and foreign policies will be next, where his focus will be, and especially to see what the future direction of his China policy will be. That's what we focus on the most.
Let's take a look at the Biden administration, or what are the major problems facing the United States right now. The domestic problem can be said to be a problem, and that is the economic problem. In more detail, there is the issue of financial U.S. bond interest rates, which is the biggest pit facing the United States at the moment. Only by filling up this pit can the United States continue to live in the future. And the economy has a great direct impact on the American people, which is the top priority in the United States at the moment.
There are three main major foreign events: one is Ukraine, one is China, and the other is the Middle East, Palestine and Israel, and Iran. From the perspective of protecting the election, Biden must make some outstanding achievements in these major events, because compared with Trump, Biden has lost points in terms of personal charm and image, and if he really wants to come to power to engage in campaign debates, if he does not cheat, Biden will definitely not be able to argue with Trump.
So if Biden wants to win against Trump, what does he rely on? Now we see that Biden's approval rating has begun to catch up with Trump, which shows that Biden has scored on many major options recently.
First of all, let's talk about the biggest problem in the United States, at least there is no collapse now, and the numbers that can be taken out on paper are very good. So what will this look like? The next prediction is that the United States will most likely not cut interest rates on a large scale before the vote in the real general election. All Biden has to do is to maintain the current mess and situation. As for the massive interest rate cut, let's talk about it after the election. Note this place, I'm talking about large-scale, small-scale is not within our prediction.
Now we have seen another sign, that is, the currency exchange rates of Japan, South Korea, Southeast Asia, and India are all plummeting, giving people the feeling that a new wave of "Asian financial crisis" is about to be ushered in. If that is the case, the United States can take the opportunity to cut a wave of "leeks", which will also be of great benefit to Biden's re-election campaign.
In order to achieve this, will Biden use some diplomatic resources? For example, to persuade Japan and South Korea to cooperate? This possibility cannot be ruled out.
Then let's look at the three important directions of the outside world.
In the Ukrainian direction, Biden just scored a point, Congress passed the bill on appropriations for Ukrainian aid. At the very least, this will allow Biden's support for Ukraine to be maintained until the election. This is where Biden scores. Of course, next, Russia's performance will be crucial. If Ukraine can make a difference after this wave of aid is sent to Ukraine, then Biden can continue to score.
Conversely, if Russia performs well, Biden risks losing points. For the U.S. election, the biggest event abroad was in Ukraine. If Russia collapses Ukraine before the election, it will be difficult for Biden to run for re-election.
The second international direction is the direction of Palestine and Israel and the Middle East. Now this direction has not yet been revealed, and it is in a stalemate. But for Biden, there is a great danger. Recently, there has been a pro-Palestinian student movement at universities in the United States. Biden has not yet made a final statement on this thing. How to express his stance and how to deal with it, Biden will definitely seriously consider this matter.
The starting point and basis of consideration is, first and foremost, to consider the issue from the perspective of his general election. Of course, if the matter between Palestine and Israel is not handled well, Biden will also lose points.
The third important direction is the issue of China. We have seen that Biden has begun to pick up the same style of Trump in the past two months, that is, to use a tough treatment of China to attract votes. The most typical one is to impose tariffs on imported steel and aluminum from China. In addition, the so-called 301 investigation was initiated in some industrial industries such as shipbuilding in China.
In fact, when it comes to the matter of steel and aluminum tariffs, it is purely to attract votes, and the domestic steel and aluminum industry in the United States, we know, has long been rotten to a mess, and tax increases will not save it. But the move to raise taxes is quite important to get the votes of working workers and their families, and it is also immediate, so Biden directly used this trick.
From this point of view, Biden's China policy will not be eased in the future, although he will not easily turn the tables and will not go to war against China in an election year, but it must be indispensable to make small moves to express toughness.
In fact, in the last wave of elections, Trump used this trick the most ruthlessly, but now the state is different, Biden is in power, because you are the ruling party, so you have to express your toughness against China, which is the easiest to express. The audience is just a mouthpiece, you can have substantive actions on the stage, and obviously Biden sees this.
Recently, the Biden administration has taken a tough stance on China, doing more and more, and it has become more and more ruthless. Of course, while being tough, he must also hold China down, and he must not let the relations between the two countries turn the tables and fight in a real way. That's why on the one hand, we must take a hard line to contain China, and on the other hand, we must maintain communication and keep high-ranking officials visiting.
China policy is also Biden's score, and it should contribute to Biden's polling support to catch up with Trump. From this point of view, Biden will continue down this road in the future.
Although the general election in the United States is his internal affair, in the American political arena, this is the most important issue at the moment. All domestic and foreign policies will be affected by the election. It is precisely because of this that the trend of the US election will also become an important basis for us to analyze the domestic and foreign policies of the United States, and it is also a special perspective from which we look at the United States.