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With the continuous advancement of artificial intelligence and robotics, humanoid robots have shown great potential in fields such as healthcare, service industry, education, etc. With the continuous innovation of technology and the continuous reduction of costs, the application range of humanoid robots will be more extensive. Optimus is the first humanoid robot developed by Tesla, equipped with the same self-driving software system and sensors as Tesla. On April 23, Tesla CEO Elon Musk updated the launch schedule of Tesla's humanoid robot Optimus at the company's earnings telegram conference. Musk has threatened to officially sell Optimus by the end of 2025 at the earliest.
Musk told investors on the latest earnings call that Optimus is currently able to perform factory tasks in the lab and believes that by the end of this year, it will be able to perform tasks in a real Tesla factory. According to Musk, "Tesla is the most capable of mass production of all humanoid robot manufacturers".
Previously, Musk had said that the complexity of the unit mass of a humanoid robot is much higher, but I still think it will end up costing less than half the cost of a car. The initial price of the Optimus will be between $25,000 and $30,000 (currently about 181,000 to 217,000 yuan) and will decrease over time. Tesla launched humanoid robots in 2021 with the initial goal of allowing them to perform dangerous, repetitive, or tedious tasks.
——The development history of Tesla's humanoid robot
Tesla, the fastest-growing company in the global humanoid robot industry, initially released the concept machine of the humanoid robot on AI DAY in 2021, and achieved rapid iteration in less than two years, completing the construction of the development platform, the debut of the Optimus product, and the realization of capabilities such as motor torque control, environmental detection and memory, and complex tasks for both hands.
Analysis of Tesla's FSD vision scheme for humanoid robots
Tesla's FSD pure vision deep learning neural network is gradually maturing and can be grafted onto humanoid robots. Similar to autonomous driving, humanoid robots also use sensors (cameras, lidars, etc.) to sense, collect, and process information about their surroundings in order to make decisions. Tesla's humanoid robot uses only 3 cameras (a fisheye camera in the middle, a vision camera on the left and right), which is directly grafted with FSD's mature pure vision solution, supplemented by sensors such as force, torque, acoustics, tactile temperature, etc.
——Analysis of representative products of humanoid robots
At present, the main layout of humanoid robots is mostly technology companies, and there are also many cross-border companies that have entered the game. The EVE robot, which has been successfully developed by 1X technologies in cooperation with ADT commercial, can be used in security, nursing, bartending and other scenarios, and is currently on sale, with a production capacity of 10 units per month, and has begun to be put into use in the United States and parts of Europe; The company's NEO robots are mainly used in security, logistics, manufacturing, machinery operation, and handling complex operations, and will be available for pre-order at the end of 2023. The Ameca robot developed by Engineered Arts in the United Kingdom can detect emotions and age when interacting with humans, and can communicate with common expressions, which is mainly used in experimental research, exhibitions, receptions, education and other fields.
In China, Xiaomi Cyberone reconstructs the real world, realizes the balance of sports posture, and perceives human emotions; UBTECH Walker X is mainly used in science and technology exhibition halls, film and television variety shows, commercial performance activities, government and enterprise exhibition halls; Zhiyuan Robot Expedition A1 is expected to be applied in the field of industrial manufacturing first, and then gradually move towards to C application.
According to the report of the Prospective Industry Research Institute, the potential of the humanoid robot market is expected to be accelerated under the multi-dimensional empowerment of policy, capital and technology. In the future, commercial application scenarios are expected to penetrate into the service industry, manufacturing and other fields. It is expected that in 2025, humanoid robots will be expected to achieve breakthroughs in the application of manufacturing scenarios, and small batches will be used in electronics, automobiles and other manufacturing environments.
At the same time, according to the report released by GGII in May 2023, it is expected that the global penetration rate of humanoid robots in service robots is expected to reach 3.5% by 2026, with a market size of more than $2 billion, and the global market size is expected to exceed $20 billion by 2030. Referring to the numerical estimation that China's service robot market accounts for about 25% of the global market, the market size of Chinese humanoid robots will reach 5 billion US dollars in 2030.
Prospective Economist APP Information Group
For more research and analysis of this industry, please refer to the "Chinese Humanoid Robot (Bionic) Industry Development Prospect Forecast and Investment Strategic Planning Analysis Report" of the Prospective Industry Research Institute.
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