Humanoid robots integrate advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence, high-end manufacturing, and new materials, and are expected to become disruptive products after computers, smart phones, and new energy vehicles, profoundly changing human production and lifestyle, and reshaping the global industrial development pattern.
At present, the accelerated evolution of humanoid robot technology has become a new highland of scientific and technological competition, a new track for future industries, and a new engine for economic development, with great development potential and wide application prospects.
First, the policy strongly supports the humanoid robot industry
In recent years, humanoid robots at home and abroad have developed rapidly, and the attention of the industry has been increasing. In terms of policy, in October 2023, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Guiding Opinions on the Innovation and Development of Humanoid Robots" (hereinafter referred to as the "Guiding Opinions"). For the first time, the "Guiding Opinions" put forward systematic guidance for the development of the humanoid robot industry, and clarified the development goals and time points.
According to the "Guiding Opinions", by 2025, the humanoid robot innovation system will be initially established, and a number of key technologies will make breakthroughs to ensure the safe and effective supply of core components. The whole machine products have reached the international advanced level, and have achieved mass production, and have been demonstrated and applied in special, manufacturing, people's livelihood services and other scenarios. By 2027, the technological innovation ability of humanoid robots will be significantly improved, a safe and reliable industrial chain and supply chain system will be formed, the comprehensive strength will reach the world's advanced level, and the industry will accelerate its large-scale development.
In January this year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other seven departments jointly issued the "Implementation Opinions on Promoting the Innovation and Development of Future Industries" (hereinafter referred to as the "Implementation Opinions"). In the part of "strengthening future high-end equipment", the "Implementation Opinions" require to accelerate the implementation of major technical equipment research projects, break through high-end equipment products such as humanoid robots and quantum computers, and drive the industrialization of new technologies with complete machines to create a world-leading high-end equipment system. Humanoid robots are at the forefront of tomorrow's innovative icons.
Overseas. In May 2023, the White House announced a series of new initiatives around the use and development of artificial intelligence in the United States, and updated the National Artificial Intelligence R&D Strategic Plan, which clearly stated that it is necessary to "develop more powerful and reliable robots";
Second, the number of patents for Chinese humanoid robots is leading in the world
At present, new technologies, new products and new forms of business represented by humanoid robots and general artificial intelligence are booming, and are becoming the commanding heights of global scientific and technological innovation, a new track for future industries and a new engine for economic growth. The number and transformation of relevant patents can reflect the scientific and technological level of a country or region, as well as the innovation ability and marketization degree of patents.
In November 2023, the People's Daily Online Research Institute released the "Humanoid Robot Technology Patent Analysis Report". As of the date of release of the report, China has a total of 1,699 valid invention patents in terms of effective invention patents, only slightly lower than Japan's 1,743 patents, ranking second in the world, and opening up a large gap with South Korea, the United States and France, which rank third to fifth. These patent reserves and technology layout are expected to keep China in the leading position in the next global scientific and technological competition.
From the perspective of patent applications, China has become the main patent applicant for humanoid robot technology. As of the date of release of the report, China has applied for a total of 6,618 patents for humanoid robot technology, which is the country with the largest number of technology patents, while Japan ranks second with 6,058 technology patents. From the perspective of technology branches, the applied patent technologies are mainly concentrated in the body structure, drive control and intelligent perception parts, with 7,949, 4,800 and 4,191 applications respectively, and the number of applications for core components and supporting environmental technology branches is small.
3. 2024 is expected to be the first year of the industry
Recently, there has been good news for humanoid robots.
The first Chinese Human Robot Industry Conference and Embodied Intelligence Summit opened in Haidian District, Beijing. With the theme of "Competing for the Humanoid Trillion Track and Reshaping the New Era of the Future Industry", more than 200 academicians, experts and entrepreneurs of humanoid robots will make wonderful reports around four special activities. More than 1,200 industry professionals from all over the world attended the conference, and more than 30 companies gathered in the two exhibition areas to display the latest technologies and products, showing the new dynamics and trends of the development of the humanoid robot industry. 2024 is a key year for the rapid development of humanoid robots and embodied intelligence, which has become an industry consensus.
At the meeting, representatives of the joint participating units such as Lead Research Institute and UBTECH and Lingxin Skillful Hand jointly released the "Research Report on Humanoid Robot Industry". The report predicts that the market size of Chinese humanoid robots in 2024 will be about 2.76 billion yuan, and by 2029 it will reach 75 billion yuan, accounting for 32.7% of the world's total, ranking first in the world, and the scale is expected to reach 300 billion yuan by 2035.
Go back in time. On March 13, Figure AI partnered with OpenAI to release the latest video. In the video, the human-computer interaction ability, logical induction and analysis ability and hardware control ability demonstrated by the humanoid robot have exceeded expectations and aroused enthusiastic responses. The humanoid robot adopts an end-to-end neural network to further verify the imagination that the AI large model and technology iteration acceleration can exponentially promote the application of humanoid robots.
The development of the humanoid robot industry has spread from the leader of intelligent electric vehicle enterprises to the joint stage of computing power chip leaders, AI manufacturers, and unicorn enterprises, with clear industry trends and continuous acceleration of iteration. It is expected that the follow-up overseas head manufacturer team will visit suppliers to promote mass production, and the catalyst of the robot sector will continue.
From the perspective of the whole industry, the general trend of the humanoid robot industry has been determined, represented by Tesla Optimus in foreign countries, planning to mass produce in small batches in 2025, and in China, represented by UBTECH, it has been trained and tested in automobile factories, and it is expected that the mass production of industrial scenarios is approaching. The agency expects that measures such as sample delivery, verification, fixed-point or capacity planning may become a catalyst for a round of market.
According to Goldman Sachs' latest forecast, the market size of humanoid robots will reach $37.8 billion in 2035, and its estimate of humanoid robot shipments has increased by four times from the previous one, reaching 1.4 million units. At the same time, as the material cost of humanoid robots has fallen by about 40% compared to 2022, it is expected that humanoid robots will be profitable faster.