China has ushered in the biggest change in 10 years: in addition to Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, 4 first-tier cities will be born!

The bearded man said the room

Now it is a period of downward trend in the property market, and the previous housing price crit that was piled up by a large amount of water will not appear in the future. In the future, most cities will enter a slow cattle stage, and the key is to eat the rigid dividend of urbanization.

In the second half of China's real estate, it is necessary to look at the second stage of urbanization development, more than 40 years of reform and opening up, we have gone through the first stage of urbanization development: the concentration of rural population in urban areas.

In the second stage of urbanization, the rural population is concentrated in the third and fourth tier cities, and the population in the third and fourth tier cities is concentrated in the first and second tier cities, and the population growth of the third and fourth tier cities is facing stagnation, while the population of the metropolitan area will continue to increase.

There is at least 8-10 years left in the golden period of urbanization in China.

In the past, we were poor and white, starting from 0, now we have a certain development strength, with the original capital accumulation, the future urbanization rate will be faster.

At present, the per capita is GDP8800 US dollars, and in the future it will be 15,000 US dollars, 20,000 US dollars... Here, in the process, in the huge amount of wealth will be created in the metropolis of China.

In short, China's cities of the future contain this vast amount of wealth.

At present, the population and land of the four major first-tier cities are relatively saturated, and Chinese cities are ushering in the biggest change in 10 years: in addition to Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, there will naturally be a number of strong second-tier cities that stand out.

By absorbing talents and upgrading industries, it has successfully promoted to a first-tier city, and according to China's current population, there are at least four first-tier cities.

And with the continuous advancement of urban construction and the continuous improvement of infrastructure, housing prices in this city will definitely continue to rise. Now their price may only be half of today's first-tier cities, one-third, one-quarter, but with their development, the price in the future will rise to today's first-tier city price, perhaps, it is only a matter of time.

So what does it take for a strong second-tier city to become a first-tier city, and which cities will stand out? We're going to talk about this today.

It is desirable to have a population of more than 10 million

First of all, urbanization is, in the final analysis, "human urbanization", so the most important thing in urbanization must be population, and what is considered here is the stock and increment of urban population.

According to the current population level of each city, if you want to become a first-tier city, you must at least be a city with a population of 10 million, or very close to 10 million people.

Population and net inflow of population by city in 2017▼

Even if it has not yet reached 10 million, it is necessary to maintain a high inflow of population and complete the transformation of a 10 million-level city in the past 2-3 years.

For example, Chengdu and Wuhan are large cities with a population of more than 10 million, and Hangzhou has a population of nearly 10 million, while maintaining a high population growth, with a net inflow of 280,000 in 2017 alone.

Therefore, if you want to occupy an advantage in terms of population size and take the lead in rising as a new first-tier city, the population base of more than 10 million is a standard, and at the same time, the city should have a net population inflow of more than 100,000 per year, so as to maintain and continuously expand its advantages.

Over the past 40 years of reform and opening up, China has achieved rapid economic development by virtue of its huge demographic dividend, rising to become the world's second largest economy, and its fertility rate has been at a "low level" for nearly 20 consecutive years.

Even in the second year of the full release of the second child, the imaginary population blowout did not appear, and the fertility rate in 2017 fell by 0.52‰ year-on-year.

The aging population is intensifying, the fertility rate is decreasing, and the "demographic dividend" on which the rapid development of the past 40 years depends is facing exhaustion.

The mainland's fertility policy has changed from family planning to the full liberalization of the second child, and then to the encouragement of childbirth, can it really recreate the next "demographic dividend" cycle?

And from the experience of countries around the world, it is difficult to rise after the fertility rate has fallen, for example, Japan, South Korea, Singapore and other countries have introduced cash subsidies and other ways to encourage childbearing, but the common people are still reluctant to have children.

Well, since you can't "make people", then rob people!

Therefore, we have seen that since 2017, Hangzhou, Nanjing, Suzhou, Wuhan, Chengdu, Zhengzhou, Xi'an, Tianjin and other cities have launched various tricks such as talent settlement, rental subsidies, and cash rewards to throw olive branches to talents.

Why do we need a population?

On the one hand, the population needs to stay and work, empower urban construction, and increase finance and tax revenue; on the other hand, the economy of various cities is now in transition, and in the future, the role of consumption in the economy will become more and more prominent, with a population of 10 million, which means that the demand market of the city is large enough, and the incremental space is large enough.

GDP ranks ahead and has a lot of stamina, preferably trillions

In the past few years, the GDP of various cities has become more serious, Shanghai has been the leader of the stable position for 40 years, and Shenzhen has surpassed Guangzhou, which is simply a history of cultivating a scholar.

In 1980, Shenzhen's GDP was 196 million yuan, while Guangzhou's was 4.88 billion yuan, 25 times that of Shenzhen, and Hong Kong's was 35 billion yuan, 178 times that of Shenzhen.

In 2018, Shenzhen surpassed Guangzhou, Beijing, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou were about to be kicked out of the group chats of first-tier cities.

At present, but in 2018, with the increase of strong second-tier cities to grab people and fixed investment, only trillions of GDP can have the capital to rise into first-tier cities in the future.

The GDP gap between first- and second-tier cities is narrowing, and the competitiveness of strong second-tier cities is good, even if it is not a trillion GDP.

In the first half of this year, Guangzhou was also exhausted.

The competition between Tianjin and Chongqing is fierce, but the overall growth rate is no longer as fast as that of Wuhan and Chengdu, which are catching up.

Tianjin is being sucked more and more seriously by Beijing, the key is the GDP created by state-owned enterprises, and Chongqing's annual fixed investment has reached trillions, after all, the cost of building a city in the mountains is too high, and there is a lot of pressure on manufacturing upgrades.

The era of high growth has been prosperous, and now the economic growth rate is slowing down, and the stamina is a little insufficient.

It seems that Wuhan Chengdu has achieved some results in the introduction of talents and enterprises, after all, it is a single-core provincial capital, and there is a lack of developed metropolitan areas around it, so it is to raise the strength of the whole province to strengthen the provincial capital and concentrate on doing big things.

Suzhou is only a prefecture-level city, but it is a super member of the trillion GDP club, mainly due to its strong manufacturing base, and the "post-southern Jiangsu model" will still have a strong vitality in the future.

Although Hangzhou is a very promising strong second-tier city and a proper first-tier city in the future, its competitiveness is still a little insufficient in terms of GDP, so it still has to work harder.

Hangzhou Qianjiang New Town▼

As the regional boss, it can radiate a side of water and soil

Another first-tier city in the Yangtze River Delta must be Hangzhou.

In the past few years, Hangzhou's urban transportation can be said to be open, G20 + Alibaba + Asian Games, and the geographical advantages are obvious, after all, relying on Shanghai and Suzhou, and Hangzhou can radiate Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Huihui basically has no problem.

And Nanjing because it is far away from the core urban agglomeration of the Yangtze River Delta, and even ridiculed as "Huijing", the location of the south of the Yangtze River is very embarrassing, and it can only be engaged in the Jiangbei New Area, radiating north of Jiangsu and Anhui, but Nanjing also has its own advantages, population growth and people's wealth, are the most in Jiangsu, and the stamina has yet to be tapped.

Hangzhou Olympic Sports Plate▼

Central City Agglomeration: Wuhan

In the central cities of Wuhan, Zhengzhou, Changsha and Hefei, Wuhan is a well-deserved boss in the central part of the country, whether it is hard power or soft power.

Changsha and Hefei can only be regarded as a medium-second tier city, and Zhengzhou, which has developed with a population of 100 million people in Henan, although there is no very well-known company, but it is better in the manufacturing industry.

Wuhan Optics Valley New Area▼

Southwest urban agglomeration: Chengdu

In addition to radiating the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration, it will also radiate to Guizhou and Yunnan.

Sichuan's population far exceeds that of Guizhou and Yunnan, and I don't need to say that the capitals of these two provinces can't compete with Chengdu and Chongqing.

Although Chongqing has a large population, it is the only city with a population of 30 million in the country, and that is because Chongqing is too big.

Moreover, Chongqing's urbanization rate is only 62.6%, which is not as good as Chengdu's 70.6%.

At the same time, as a municipality directly under the central government, Chongqing is not as good as Chengdu in terms of driving the development and appeal of surrounding cities, and the central location of Sichuan is more suitable than Chongqing.

And Chengdu is surrounded by a large group of younger brothers, for example: if the city cooperates, such as Mianyang, is Mianyang and Chengdu good to cooperate, or Mianyang and Chongqing are good to cooperate?

Spicy knows that of course it's Chengdu with his big brother.

Chengdu Tianfu New Area▼

The fourth region, the northwest region, is the regional leader: Xi'an.

The radiation includes five provinces: Shaanxi, Shanxi, Gansu, Qinghai and Ningxia, and the deputy squad leader is Lanzhou. Indeed, compared with the three regional central cities of Hangzhou, Chengdu, and Wuhan, the gap between Xi'an and Wuhan is very large.

But in the whole northwest region, can you find a better city than Xi'an?

We can't let Wuhan, which is far in the middle, or Hangzhou in the east, radiate and drive the development of Shanxi, Shaanxi and Ningxia, right?

The central city of the region is the most qualified to drive the development of the entire region in terms of geographical location and ability.

Regardless of population, GDP, transportation, education, Xi'an is the No.1 in the northwest region, although the northwest region can not develop for a long time, but always support one.

So that's why Xi'an was able to become China's ninth national central city in February this year, rather than Qingdao and Fuzhou, which have better economic developments. It is clear that the state has strategic intentions.

To drive the development of the entire Guanzhong Plain urban agglomeration, Xi'an must be, so of course, the national central city will naturally fall on the head of Xi'an.

Qujiang New Town▼

Here and everyone must emphasize that being able to become the regional boss and lead the political task of driving the development of the surrounding areas is a very plus in being able to become the next batch of second-tier cities to rise, because the country should focus on developing you, not only for the development of you, but also when you develop well, you have to simultaneously drive the development of the surrounding brothers.

Therefore, the four regional central cities just mentioned: Hangzhou, Wuhan, Chengdu and Xi'an, have added a lot of points in this wave of new first-tier city elections.

Unique industrial support and diversified development

If you want to become a first-tier city, you must have your own most irreplaceable industry in order to win this promotion competition.

The capital is the best blessing of Beijing, and the best resources and the most abundant capital in the country are pouring into Beijing.

Shanghai is a financial center with active foreign investment, and the Yangtze River Delta is also the country with the highest degree of people's wealth. Guangzhou's commercial status can be shaken.

Shenzhen is a gathering place for young and wealthy technology and financial upstarts. In the future, if you want to be promoted to a first-tier city, what are the competitiveness of a strong second-tier city?

Hangzhou's biggest advantage is Alibaba. An Ali has given Shanghai a strong sense of crisis. The complete e-commerce industry chain driven by Alibaba, looking at the whole country, even Huawei and Tencent cannot be compared, which is the bargaining chip of Hangzhou's future.

In addition to science and technology, there are tourism, finance, Internet of Things, etc., when it comes to finance, this round of P2P thunderstorm, Hangzhou can really be described as the biggest minefield, it can be seen that Hangzhou's financial road, the strength of the precipitation is not enough, and it will not go too flat in the future.

Wuhan, everyone knows very well that Optics Valley is the center of Wuhan's future.

Although the current core industry is automobiles, Wuhan has gradually changed its positioning, such as the introduction of Xiaomi from Beijing, and even gave a gift package with no purchase restrictions, and also gave a settling-in fee of 30,000 yuan.

Wuhan's own equipment manufacturing industry, optical cables and optical fibers are also very strong, all concentrated in the Optics Valley, and the planning of the Optics Valley can also be called a model for China's new industrial city.

In Chengdu, the traditional core industry is electronic information.

The biomedical and financial industries are also developing rapidly, as well as intelligent manufacturing, digital entertainment, cultural and creative industries.

Chengdu has always been eager to have a well-known Internet company to support its own façade, so it also introduced Hammer mobile phones, but only a year later, it was rumored on the Internet that the Hammer branch was suspected of disbanding, and it couldn't stand it.

Xi'an is best known for its aviation industry.

It is also the only one in mainland China and the largest in Asia, integrating aircraft design and research, manufacturing, flight test appraisal and scientific research and teaching, and the most complete aviation industry base.

After all, Xi'an is located in the northwest and has geographical advantages, which is very suitable for the development of this strategic industry. Moreover, Xi'an's higher education is also very strong, with 211 and 985 universities only lagging behind Nanjing and Wuhan. Therefore, Xi'an is a well-deserved boss in the northwest.

The self-owned characteristic industries of these cities are their bargaining chips in the future competition to become first-tier cities.

Ranking of investment value of first-tier cities in the future: Hangzhou> Wuhan> Chengdu> Xi'an;

Ranking of investment value of sub-central cities: Nanjing> Chongqing > Zhengzhou

In the future, only Xi'an can invest in the northwest, and there is no need to look at the rest.

It is believed that this urbanization will change China's urban pattern in the next 10 years. Outside of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, who will become a first-tier city? Will there be a dark horse outside the list? Welcome to actively discuss in the message area!

…… To be continued, the full text can be paid attention to the official account "Langya Academy Notes".

Edit | Both white, cumin, and Zhang Pan cakes

Curated | Xinlangya Academy (chasing the wind, creating, writing books, may life be as I wish)

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【Editor's Introduction】Both white, the word is extraordinary, the number of giant hidden, two insects, knives and pens, now Linyi Lanling people, long living in the cloud study, planting bamboo and plantains, often reciting "Returning to the Garden". I don't want to understand the book, I like to dance and talk about ink to entertain myself, and in my spare time, I especially love purple sand, bonsai, strange stones, calligraphy, seal carving, etc. There may be essays, poems and other clumsy works, mostly published on this WeChat public account.