The last struggle of the oil truck
Lead
Introduction
The future has long been decided, but the process is still uncertain.
Author丨Cha Youyin
Editor-in-charge丨Li Sijia
Editor丨Duan Yongqi
2021, the 19th Shanghai International Automobile Industry Expo: Embracing Change;
In 2022, the 17th Beijing International Automobile Exhibition (not held as scheduled due to the epidemic): foresee the future;
2023, the 20th Shanghai International Automobile Industry Expo: Embracing the New Era of the Automotive Industry;
Until 2024, the upcoming 18th Beijing International Automobile Exhibition will sing "New Era, New Cars".
Three years ago, the slogan of "embracing change" is still in front of me, and the huge advertisement of Hengchi after that is like a world away
Even if we only look at the two most important domestic auto shows held every other year between Beijing and Shanghai from the perspective of slogan, one thing is obvious -
If we say that in Shanghai three years ago, all parties only saw the earth-shaking changes that were about to take place in the automobile industry. So today, from the perspective of the 18th Beijing Auto Show, most people should have a clear and clear judgment on what form it will be presented in the future.
The future of electrification of automobiles is already predestined. The key to the evaluation of all parties is only how far the market for pure electric vehicles can expand, and how much of the "other" solutions for various non-pure electric vehicles can finally account for in the market.
In addition, before the completion of its historical mission, what other developments can be made in the most important intelligent field today.
The intelligent evolution of fuel vehicles
On the eve of the 18th Beijing International Automobile Show, the joint venture between the North and South Volkswagen each made a "big move".
FAW-Volkswagen in the north came up with a replacement model of the B9 of Magotan. It is derived from the PASSAT B9 model unveiled by the Volkswagen Group on August 30 last year, but it has been revised considerably in terms of vehicle configuration, exterior and even cabin interior.
The Magotan B9 has changed greatly from the PASSAT B9 in appearance, and it is simply a kind of "special car" for the Chinese market - in a positive sense. For details, please refer to the commune's previous post
For example, the B9 model, which is widely regarded as the "last generation of the PASSAT", is currently only available in a touring version. THE FRONT DESIGN IS ALSO HIGHLY SIMILAR TO THE ID.7 VIZZION, AN ALL-ELECTRIC MODEL LAUNCHED BY THE VOLKSWAGEN GROUP LAST SUMMER AND AUTUMN, AND THE COCKPIT IS ALSO TRANSPLANTED WITH THE SAME IN-CAR SYSTEM.
However, the Magotan B9 has significant differences. First of all, the appearance of the vehicle, whether it is the front face or the body, and even the configuration of the standard sedan, are trying to express its market positioning that is different from the parent model. In addition, in terms of the specific configuration of the intelligent cockpit, the Magotan B9 is also improved compared with the parent PASSAT B9, specifically an independent entertainment screen has been added in the co-pilot position. This is obviously a reference to various popular designs in China.
The situation in the south is similar.
As early as a few weeks before the auto show, SAIC Volkswagen gathered the media to showcase its latest intelligent fuel SUV product, the Tiguan L Pro. The model is based on the third-generation Tiguan released by the Volkswagen Group in mid-September last year. In addition to the adjustment of the appearance of the front face and lower surround, the cabin has been improved similar to the Magotan B9, and in addition to the ID.7 VIZZION's in-car system, an entertainment screen has also been added in the passenger seat.
The cockpit of the Magotan B9 and the Tiguan L Pro is basically the same
Volkswagen is not the only one working to make a difference, Toyota is also taking action. Released during the Guangzhou Auto Show last year and officially launched last month, the ninth-generation Camry has made a lot of efforts in terms of cockpit intelligence. In addition to the new generation of in-vehicle system with a 12.3-inch screen, it is also equipped with Huawei's ecological AI voice assistant system, and the voiceprint recognition function ensures that the cockpit functions can be accurately controlled by voice.
At about the same time, the other two Japanese brands Honda and Nissan, as well as BMW and Mercedes-Benz among the BBA triumvirate, and even Cadillac/GM and Ford, which are currently becoming increasingly marginalized in the domestic market, also installed their own intelligent cockpit solutions on their replacement models.
Its common practice is to increase the graphical data display interface in the car, increase the HUD equipment, and achieve a certain voice control capability, at least in the general direction, to be able to keep close to the current aggressive new energy brand. In short, on the track of cockpit intelligence, many old fuel car companies seem to be playing well.
From smart cabin to smart driving
However, the reason why the intelligent cockpit can be named "intelligent" is not based on the number of screens in the car. Whether there is a unified control system that can realize multiple functions, and whether it has human-computer interaction functions that far exceed those of the traditional cockpit, is the fundamental.
The essence of the intelligent cockpit lies in the fact that, compared with the traditional cockpit, it has more powerful interaction capabilities and more powerful information functions, and can more intelligently complete the instructions of the people in the car
In the final analysis, the strength of the degree of intelligence in this regard, in addition to the intelligent cockpit solution itself, also involves the underlying electronic and electrical architecture of the vehicle.
To put it simply, if a driver wants to use voice commands to select songs, then any old-fashioned oil car can be easily equipped with an intelligent in-car entertainment system. However, if you want to control the opening and closing of windows and sunroofs with voice commands, the premise is that the control equipment of windows and sunroofs must have corresponding control interfaces so that the cockpit domain controller can control the machine.
Based on this criterion, the reason why the author focused on the new models of North and South Volkswagen in the previous article is also because those two models are developed based on the latest MQB Evo platform. Compared with MQB A2, MQB Evo has achieved a fundamental innovation in the underlying electronic and electrical architecture.
Figure: The development trend of vehicle electronic and electrical architecture
And this is also related to the other half of the "double intelligence" concept of smart cars, that is, the realization of intelligent driving functions.
Returning to Volkswagen's fuel products, the latest Magotan B9 and Tiguan L Pro are equipped with pure vision intelligent driving solutions provided by DJI. It can realize L2+ level intelligent driving functions. These include point-to-point driving within closed road systems, automated parking functions, and more. At the same time, the system can recognize traffic lights and traffic signs.
It may be difficult for the public to develop a reliable intelligent driving solution at this stage, but if you stand from the perspective of China's automobile industry, you will find that the number of companies that can actually come up with a complete set of intelligent driving solutions at least two hands, including the four giants of "Dahuamo".
Figure: DJI's in-vehicle 7V solution is the cheapest, but the platform still needs to meet the most basic electronic and electrical architecture standards
As long as your vehicle platform has the corresponding capabilities, it is actually not difficult to integrate a third-party intelligent driving solution.
Because of this, Mercedes-Benz's latest generation of C-class and E-class can also be equipped with L2+ intelligent driving functions provided by NVIDIA. Even on several special routes that have been specifically demarcated in Germany, the system can be used according to the L3 standard.
However, there are also negative instructors in this area, such as Toyota.
Although the e-TNGA is called TNGA's electronic electrification overhaul, it only considers the issue of electrification in terms of overall architecture, and does not leave enough interfaces in terms of intelligence. For example, it did not consider reserving enough interfaces for the intelligent cockpit to drive hardware, and did not consider the possibility of equipping components such as lidar in terms of assisted driving.
It can only be said that this car died violently in the market after its release, and it was not unjust at all
Overall, the e-TNGA platform has a short-lived, quick-fitting feel. Although this is very much in line with the consistent tone of Toyota and even Japanese cars, it is also destined to be marginalized in this wrestling in the long-term future if it does not completely overturn the existing architecture.
Sunk costs are heavy
If we take this Beijing Auto Show as a node, the author is optimistic about the Volkswagen Group's efforts to make fuel vehicles intelligent, and the attitude is obvious. I believe that the specific reasons can be understood by everyone who reads this.
However, this kind of "optimism" is only temporary. As the name of the article suggests, the narrow sense of the word, a car powered only by a fuel engine has actually reached the end of its historical mission.
The gradual decline of the "oil car" is no longer a prediction today, but a trend that is obvious to everyone.
Geely's CMA Evo platform integrates the front and rear axle assembly, battery pack, fuel tank and controller
However, this is not to say that the gasoline engine will die with it. Don't think this is contradictory, because to put it bluntly, it is another road that has clearly emerged in the domestic market in addition to pure electric vehicles - hybridization.
If all fuel car companies want to continue to develop well in the future for a few years or no more than ten years, then in addition to the development of pure electric vehicles, it should at least strive to increase investment in the hybrid track. Whether it is a range extension or a hybrid, it does not include a Japanese-style general hybrid that treats the symptoms but not the root cause.
However, for most of the overseas car giants, it is very difficult to seriously promote such a project.
Although it goes all out to devote itself to the pure electric track when the new energy trend is at the peak, it basically does not have the possibility of withstanding internal and external pressure and spending huge sums of money for several years to seriously engage in a high-performance hybrid system like BYD, Geely, Chery, Great Wall, Changan and other enterprises.
What's the problem? The author is going to take the public I am most familiar with as an example.
As we all know, although the Volkswagen Group, like Mercedes-Benz and BMW, has a thermal efficiency close to 50% in the laboratory, Volkswagen's own engine product line, although the ultimate thermal efficiency data is not outstanding, but it has a real advantage over similar products in terms of comprehensive fuel consumption. In view of the fundamental difference between the working state of the direct drive engine and the hybrid engine, neither the EA888 nor the EA211 engine can be directly used in the hybrid system without major changes.
Therefore, investing in the development of hybrid systems, and even shifting the entire fuel product line to the hybrid direction, means that the wide-range and efficient engine system that Volkswagen is most proud of will almost be completely cut. Even in the past two decades, the Volkswagen Group has invested heavily in the development of fuel stratification injection technology, which is almost regarded by the outside world as its technical signature in the field of internal combustion engines, and will be directly reduced to waste.
Figure | Even if it is as beautiful as a work of art, the sunk cost
But the cost doesn't stop there.
It's obviously not enough to have a hybrid-specific engine. Regardless of whether its hybrid solution chooses direct drive or DHT, all three major platforms of MQB/MLB/MSB need to continue to spend huge sums of money on magic changes. As a side effect, the dual-clutch product line that has been invested for many years and has finally "survived", including the DSG, S-tronic and PDK, will instantly become useless. Even the Quattro program, on which Audi rests, will suffer dramatically.
Not so long ago, a large-scale electrification transformation, as well as investment in pure electric product lines, directly took Herbert Diess, the former CEO. And this kind of drastic change will inevitably involve even greater operational problems, and the financial implications that may follow, which may be earth-shattering......
In addition to the interests of capital, there is also the problem of "millions of workers" that is more difficult to break through
Obviously, the same problem also plagues BMW, Mercedes-Benz, as well as Japanese Toyota, Honda, Nissan and Mazda, and even all the traditional car companies that have deep technology accumulation in the world. However, this is in addition to pure electric vehicles, another must and absolutely must be crossed, a gap between life and death.
But I'm not optimistic about the overseas giants.
|Cha Youyin|
There is no foolproof measure