1. Market review
spot market
The Guangxi white sugar spot trading index this week ran in the range of 6416~6531 yuan/ton, and closed at 6448 yuan/ton on Friday, down 114 yuan/ton from last Friday's price.
As of Friday, the quotation range of Guangxi Sugar Group was 6470~6720 yuan/ton, down about 160 yuan/ton from last Friday; Yunnan Sugar Group's quotation range was 6370~6410 yuan/ton, down about 140 yuan/ton from last Friday, only Yunnan Nanhua quoted twice; and the quotation range of processed sugar mills was 6710~6950 yuan/ton, down about 150 yuan/ton from last Friday.
The downward trend in futures prices stimulated the transaction of point-price sugar, but in the context of the off-season of consumption, the downstream terminals were mainly used as they were purchased, and the spot trading performance was flat, and the overall transaction was average.
Data source: Pansugar Technology
futures market
Zheng Sugar's main contract SR2409 ran in the range of 6163~6416 yuan/ton this week, closing at 6216 yuan/ton, down 178 yuan/ton week-on-week, with a weekly decline of 2.78% and an amplitude of 3.96%.
At this stage, the domestic market sugar supply is abundant, superimposed on the consumption off-season purchase and sales sluggish, sugar prices rise in the internal vitality is insufficient, Monday to Thursday, sugar futures prices to weak shock trend. On Friday, boosted by the rise in the external market and the announcement of the "Announcement on Adjusting the Management Measures for Sugar in the Special Customs Supervision Area and Processing Trade Outside the Zone" jointly issued by multiple national departments, the Zheng Sugar SR2409 contract finally stopped falling and closed slightly up at 6216 yuan/ton.
Data source: Zheng Shang Firm, Pan Sugar Technology
International Sugar Market
The main ICE raw sugar contract ran in the range of 19.08~20.29 cents/pound this week, and closed at 19.57 cents/pound, down 0.58 cents/pound, a weekly decline of 2.88%, and an amplitude of 6.00%.
This week, the price of ICE raw sugar futures continued to decline last week. The market expects Brazil to maintain a bumper sugar production in the 2024/25 crushing season, sugar in the northern hemisphere may usher in a recovery increase, the international sugar market supply exceeds expectations to increase pressure on sugar prices, raw sugar fell for many consecutive days, below the 20 cents/pound mark, on Thursday on the back of buying support and crude oil rose to usher in a slight rebound, but failed to stabilize, Friday extended losses and closed at 19.57 cents/lb. At present, the global sugar market has started a cycle of increasing production, and the ICE raw sugar futures price may start a long-term downward trend.
Data source: Straight Flush Futures
Second, the data says sugar
(1) Sugar import data in March
According to customs data, the mainland imported 10,000 tons of sugar in March, a year-on-year decrease of 56,300 tons, or 84.91 percent, and from January to March, the mainland imported 1,202,500 tons of sugar, a year-on-year increase of 255,500 tons, an increase of 26.98 percent.
As of March of the 2023/24 crushing season, the mainland imported 3.0624 million tons of sugar, an increase of 344,100 tons or 12.66% year-on-year.
Source: General Administration of Customs
(2) Import data of syrup and white sugar premix powder in March
Customs data show that in March, the mainland imported 157,400 tons of syrup and white sugar premixed powder, a year-on-year decrease of 4,900 tons, a decrease of 3.05%. Among them, 100,500 tons of cane sugar or beet sugar aqueous solution (tariff code 1702.9011), a year-on-year decrease of 9,800 tons, a decrease of 8.9%; imported simple solid mixtures of cane sugar, beet sugar and other sugars, with a sucrose content of more than 50% (tariff code 1702.9012) 54,000 tons, an increase of 4,200 tons, an increase of 8.37%;imports of other solid sugars and syrups without flavoring or coloring, artificial honey and caramel (tariff code 1702.9090) 2,900 tons, an increase of 0.07 thousand tons or 22.14% year-on-year.
From January to March 2024, the mainland imported a total of 325,700 tons of syrup and white sugar premixed powder, an increase of 15,200 tons or 4.91% year-on-year.
As of March of the 2023/24 crushing season, the mainland imported a total of 741,000 tons of syrup and white sugar premix, an increase of 246,700 tons or 49.89% year-on-year.
Source: General Administration of Customs
(3) Futures and spot basis and warehouse receipts
The number of warehouse receipts on Friday was 21,158, an increase of 1,862 week-on-week, and the effective forecast was 3,669, a decrease of 1,913 from last week. The number of warehouse receipts + effective forecasts was 24,827, a decrease of 42,709 or 63.24% from the same period last year. The basis range of futures and spot is 171~233 yuan/ton.
Data source: Zheng Shang Firm, Pan Sugar Technology
(4) The cost of raw sugar processing within and outside the quota
As of Friday, Brazil's processing cost within the quota was 5,291 yuan/ton, and the additional processing cost was 6,780 yuan/ton, down 302 yuan/ton and 393 yuan/ton respectively from last week, while Thailand's processing cost within the quota was 5,449 yuan/ton, and the additional processing cost was 6,985 yuan/ton, down 163 yuan/ton and 214 yuan/ton respectively from last week. Compared with the mainstream quotation of 6710~6950 yuan/ton of domestic coastal processing sugar mills, Brazil's additional import profit is about -70~170 yuan/ton.
(5) WTI crude oil prices
The main WTI crude oil contract ran in the range of $81.06~$85.64 per barrel this week, with a weekly decline of 2.75% and an amplitude of 5.40%, closing at $82.11 per barrel.
Data source: Straight Flush Futures, Pan Sugar Technology
(6) CFTC position data
As of the week of April 16, the total position of ICE raw sugar futures + options was 958466 lots, a decrease of 48,092 lots from the previous week. Speculative long positions were 164637, a decrease of 13,561 hands from the previous week, speculative short positions were 187713, an increase of 42,553 hands from the previous week, and speculative net positions turned from long to short, with a net short position of 23,076 hands, an increase of 56,114 hands from the previous week.
Data sources: Intercontinental Exchange, Pan Sugar Technology
(7) Sugar production and trade flows
Brazil: In the first two weeks of April, 1,043,900 tons of sugar and molasses were exported, with an average daily export volume of 104,400 tons, an increase of 93.40% from the average daily export volume of 54,000 tons in April last year.
The number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 80 in the week ended April 17, compared with 72 in the previous week. The volume of sugar awaiting shipment at the port was 2,868,600 mt, compared to 2,651,000 mt in the previous week. Of the total amount of sugar waiting to be exported during the week, the amount of high-grade raw sugar (VHP) was 2,795,100 tons.
India: As of April 15, there were 84 sugar mills in production in India, down 48 year-on-year, and cumulative sugar production was 31.093 million tons, down 145,000 tons, or 0.46%, year-on-year.
Thailand: As of April 17, 2023/24 crushing season, all 57 sugar mills have harvested, with a cumulative crushing of 82.1667 million tons of sugarcane, a year-on-year decrease of 12.48%, a cumulative sugar production of 8.7726 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 20.25%, and an average sugar yield of 10.68%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%.
Eurasian Economic Union: The 2023/24 crushing season ended on April 15, with a cumulative sugar production of 7.47 million tons.
(8) Institutional estimates
Brazil's National Commodity Supply Corporation (CONAB): Brazil's sugarcane output in the 2023/2024 season is expected to reach 713.2 million tonnes, up from an estimated 677.6 million tonnes in November last year, while Brazil's sugar output is expected to be 45.68 million tonnes, up 24.1% from the 2022/23 season, compared to the previous forecast of 46.88 million tonnes.
Wilmar International: Thailand's sugarcane production is expected to reach 82.3 million tonnes and sugar production at 8.7 million tonnes in the 2023/24 crushing season, while sugarcane production in Thailand is expected to jump to more than 100 million tonnes and sugar production to 11 million tonnes in the 2024/25 crushing season.
Eurasian Sugar Association: The total sugar production of the Eurasian Economic Union in the 2023/24 crushing season is expected to reach 7.65 million tons.
United States Department of Agriculture (USDA): Brazil's sugarcane production in the 2024/25 season is expected to be 645 million tonnes, down 8.5% from the 2023/24 season, with total sugar production estimated at 44 million tonnes and sugar exports estimated at 34.5 million tonnes.
Australia is forecast to produce 4.1 million tonnes of sugar in the 2023/24 season and 4.2 million tonnes in the 2024/25 season.
Russian Ministry of Agriculture: Russian sugar beet production is forecast to be 47 million tons in 2024, down 6.1 million tons, or about 13%, from 53.1 million tons in 2023.
Author | Panutose technology
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