Under the tide of kindergarten closure, how should kindergartens choose?
In Jining, Shandong, Yu Bo and his wife have been in the industry for 21 years and have opened 11 kindergartens in a row. In 2023, they decided to close 3 kindergartens and transform into elderly care services. They have experienced a period of rapid development of kindergartens and are experiencing "labor pains" in the industry.
According to public data from the Ministry of Education, there will be 274,400 kindergartens in the country in 2023, and a total of 40,929,800 preschool children will be enrolled in kindergartens. Compared with the data of 2022, the number of kindergartens in the country decreased by 14,800, and the number of children in kindergartens decreased by 5,345,700. In other words, in the past year, an average of 40 kindergartens have closed every day.
Behind these data, many preschool teachers and related practitioners have to leave their original positions. Yu Bo chose to stop the loss in time and seek a way out on the new track.
The number of kindergarten students is decreasing
"It's hard to find a child"
The number of children in kindergartens decreased by one-third, and three kindergartens had no choice but to close
Yu Bo was almost white-headed overnight.
When the decision to close the kindergarten was made, Yu Bo and his wife were more distressed than anyone else.
In a kindergarten in Rencheng District, Jining City, the once lively scene no longer exists, and three or four classrooms are idle. Song Pan, the director of the kindergarten, smiled wryly, the original nursery class planned to enroll 15 people, but this year there are only 6 children and 3 teachers. "It's the equivalent of 1 teacher with 2 children. ”
This kindergarten was opened in 2015 and was invested and built by Yu Bo and his wife with a loan of more than 1.2 million yuan. "We were optimistic about the track at the time, and we didn't hesitate to break the boat. "The returns are really good, and in 2019 the kindergarten was saturated with more than 290 children.
Today, the kindergartens they run are generally experiencing a decline in students. Yu Bo's wife, Cui Jin, said, "We have a kindergarten with seven classes and three classes left, and three classes left in the nursery class. The number of children in kindergarten has decreased by one-third compared to before. ”
Although the epidemic has had a great impact on the kindergarten, Yu Bo and his wife have never thought of closing the kindergarten. Day by day, they waited for the park to open. In order to save themselves, they cleaned up the idle classrooms, organized kindergarten cooks to cook, and teachers worked as delivery boys, and the money earned was divided equally among the teachers. Yu Bo always felt that the difficult days would soon be over.
Yu Bo
In September 2020, enrollment was satisfactory. Yu Bo analyzed that it was because of the small peak of kindergarten admission caused by the liberalization of the two-child policy.
Yu Bo is full of confidence that there will be more and more children, and began to prepare to invest in the construction of the 11th kindergarten. In 2021, the kindergarten opened, and what he never expected was that there would be 15% fewer children.
The real crisis came in 2022. "The student population has almost fallen off a cliff, and we are caught off guard. It is true that there is no direction in sight, and there is no future in sight. Faced with the rent, staff salaries, operating costs, and loans for the park, Yu Bo and his wife felt unbearable pressure.
"Of course, I don't want to say goodbye, but I want to live. Cui Jin calculated that it would take two or three million yuan to invest in a kindergarten. In the first year of the kindergarten, parents often have limited students due to environmental protection and teaching quality. Generally, in the third year, when the enrollment is normal, the income and expenditure can reach a balance.
Compared with public kindergartens, the enrollment situation of private kindergartens is worse, especially single kindergartens are more difficult to maintain. Cui Jin said that the chain of kindergartens they run supported each other to survive.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the number of children in kindergartens nationwide has declined for three consecutive years from 2021 to 5.345 million in 2023 compared with the previous year.
"There are more monks and less porridge. In the spring of 2023, Yu Bo and his wife convened a meeting with the principals and decided to close down the three kindergartens. Many kindergartens have suffered the same fate. In the past two years, the number of kindergartens in mainland China has decreased by 20,400, and in 2023 alone, it will decrease by 14,800.
Catch-up bonuses
With the opening of 11 kindergartens in a row, enrollment was a matter of no effort
Yu Bo and Cui Jin run 11 kindergartens, including inclusive kindergartens, mid-end kindergartens and high-end kindergartens, which are located in Rencheng District, High-tech Zone and Taibaihu New District of Jining City. Over the past 21 years, they have witnessed the development and popularity of kindergartens, and now the entire industry is facing unprecedented challenges.
In 2001, after graduating from kindergarten education, Cui Jin went to work in a private kindergarten. In 2003, she quit her job to start her own business and opened her first kindergarten. Later, Cui Jin was also rated as an advanced individual in college student entrepreneurship in Shandong Province. After the birth of his daughter, Yu Bo decided to leave vocational training and run a kindergarten with his wife.
In 2009, they opened their second kindergarten. Later, almost 1 new kindergarten was added every year, and until 2021, they opened a total of 11 kindergartens.
Cui Jin
"At that time, the birth rate was high, and there were not many supporting kindergartens in the community, so there was a great demand for kindergartens. In this context, the whole industry is developing rapidly, so we continue to invest in the creation of kindergartens. Yu Bo said.
In the demographic dividend stage, children have sprung up. The kindergarten enrollment is characterized by proximity, with a radius of about two kilometers. Many kindergartens do not have to work hard in terms of enrollment, and many parents will "come to the news" by introducing each other.
"The kindergarten opens in March and September every year, and the places are booked almost a year in advance, and we have a kindergarten with a maximum of more than 500 children. Cui Jin said, "When it was the most popular, Bao's mother came to consult as soon as she was pregnant, worried that after the child was born, she might not have a degree when she reached the age of school." ”
According to the birth population data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in the past seven years, the number of newborns in China has decreased from 17.86 million in 2016 to 9.02 million in 2023.
Now, Cui Jin clearly feels that it is difficult to reproduce the "record" of past admissions. The enrollment front is elongated, and every day is the enrollment season. Live broadcast has become one of the new channels for kindergarten enrollment. In the past, they mainly held activities to train their children, but now they have become a strategy to "grab a source of life". In order to secure a pool of potential students, the kindergarten began to hold early education classes.
Kindergarten teacher Zhang Wenjing
This situation touched Zhang Wenjing deeply. As a kindergarten teacher for more than ten years, the classes she leads are always very popular. Now in order to recruit students, she will also hand out flyers and shoot videos. Last year, more than 20 children in her class graduated, and she took on a new class of only 5 children. Despite her psychological preparation, Zhang Wenjing still has a huge sense of disparity and frustration. "The heart is empty, and it doesn't seem to be needed. ”
Stop losses in time
Transform elderly care services to provide a new place for the energetic elderly
The time has come for the hard decision.
Closing 3 kindergartens, Yu Bo made a lot of determination. Under the embarrassment, although regretful, he could only choose to stop the loss in time.
"We have been working in kindergartens for 21 years, and our minds have been solidified, and it is difficult to jump out. Yu Bo sighed, what can people do when they start a new business in middle age, and what will they do? Yu Bo tried after-school care, but in the end it was unsuccessful. He also wants to make a plan for further education, but he can't "digest" so many employees.
Later, during an exchange, Yu Bo found that there was another group that needed more attention. That is the healthy old man over 60 years old, Yu Bo called it "energetic old man". "After this group of elderly people retires, what they need is to be respected and recognized. They want to have a place to relax, play, learn and improve, instead of staying at home every day, and losing a lot of meaning in their later years. ”
Yu Bo has done an investigation, and the current pension market mainly includes nursing homes and health care products. He believes that nursing homes are not just needed by all the elderly, and the investment is large and the return cycle is long. And health care products are more controversial.
He decided to make a different kind of pension service organization - "Community Quarter Hour Elderly Service Center". In fact, Yu Bo originally wanted to set up the pension institution directly in the kindergarten, which could also solve the problem of idle space and employee employment in the kindergarten. However, considering the impact on the confidence of kindergarten teachers and worrying that parents would have opinions, Yu Bo rented a store in the community to conduct a pilot.
Different from the elderly activity center and the university for the elderly, they provide four types of services: health care, such as smart devices, health care, such as moxibustion, food and wellness, such as catering public welfare classes, and music care, various interest classes, etc. In addition, the kindergarten logistics staff will be transformed into domestic staff, and will also provide door-to-door services for the elderly. In the past six months, they have received one or two hundred orders.
Zhou Xin transitioned from a preschool teacher to a nursing institution
In this store, kindergarten teacher Zhou Xin is beckoning Li Zengying and several other elderly people to enter the store. After the kindergarten was closed, some of the teachers transferred to other kindergartens, and some left the preschool education industry, so Zhou Xin decided to try it in an elderly care institution. "The span is quite large, but in fact, there are contradictions in my heart. After all, professional knowledge is different, and dealing with children is not the same as dealing with the elderly. In order to better communicate with the elderly, Zhou Xin spoke the Jining dialect.
Li Zengying's family lives in Zoucheng, and after retiring last year, he went to Rencheng District to pick up his granddaughter. Because of the unfamiliar environment and no friends, Li Zengying has almost nothing to do except pick up and drop off the children. used to dominate in the workplace, and Li Zengying felt lonely after retirement. Passing by the shop, she walked in and inquired. "At first, I was worried about being deceived, but I came after the experience. She made friends here, learned crafts, and happily looked forward to coming to "class" every day.
The speed of transformation is very fast, and the decision to transform in March last year, the preparation in May, and the trial operation in October. In the past six months, they have served five or six hundred elderly people. A lot of people are concerned about earnings. "We now charge more than 1,200 yuan per person per year, and the elderly spend less than 4 yuan a day. Yu Bo said, "This is a long-term career, and I can't rush it." ”
"Two Gates"
Try a new model of childcare + childcare for the elderly, and seek a new way out
Now is not the hardest time.
Cui Jin feels that the hardest time is the upcoming September. "This year's kindergarten enrollment will be more difficult, the kindergarten children graduate, after the new students enroll, the number of students in the kindergarten will be less than half of the glory period, and the industry will be reshuffled. ”
In her observations, parents have become more cautious in choosing kindergartens, and many parents even take tuition fees to sign up on the first day of school. Cui Jin said they were worried about paying the tuition ahead of schedule, in case the kindergarten "disappeared".
"Students represent dignity. This is the law in the hearts of the principals. In order to survive, the existing eight kindergartens need to be improved. Cui Jin believes that the most important thing is the mentality of the principal and the teacher. In her view, although kindergartens are currently in a wave of closure, the kindergarten industry will not be eliminated by society.
"There will be kindergartens closed this year, but we want to be the ones who are left behind," Cui said. Admissions may be harder in the coming years, so keep up with the times. ”
Vacant kindergarten classrooms appear empty
In September of this year, Yu Bo also faced the challenge of the elderly care center that Yu Bo wanted to practice. They have chosen a locked kindergarten and are currently renovating the vacant classrooms, leaving two entrances for the elderly and children to enter and exit. Elderly people send their children to kindergarten, and they can also stay here for classes, meals, and entertainment. Yu Bo mentioned that the grandparents and grandparents of kindergarten children will be free of charge, and only external fees will be charged.
Yu Bo had prepared for the worst, once another kindergarten was closed, the teacher could choose to transform into a nursery center. "After all, it takes a lot of courage for a teacher in his thirties and forties to get re-employed. Faced with the choices that may come in the future, Zhang Wenjing felt that she could try to transform, and Teacher Jin Menghuan still wanted to continue to insist on it in the kindergarten.
On this day, Yu Bo received a phone call from someone asking if his nursing institution had an escort and bathing assistant. Yu Bo also began to consider whether to expand and improve these services in the future.
Of course there is. "We don't have a model to learn from, so we can only cross the river by feeling the stones. We also hope that the relevant departments will give us support, encouragement and guidance, and we will be able to better grasp the direction. Now, the relevant local departments have visited Yubo's pension institutions to explore the feasibility of replication and promotion.
By the end of 2023, there were 296.97 million elderly people aged 60 and above in mainland China, accounting for 21.1% of the national population. Over time, this number will rise: the total number of people aged 60 and over is expected to exceed 300 million during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. Yu Bo believes that from a business point of view, the future pension market will reach a trillion scale.
Yu Bo considers himself a prophetic person. "Success or failure, it often happens to the first mover. "Yu Bo is experimenting, and many peers are also observing Yu Bo's experiments.