In the wake of Iran's missile blast and shattering Israel's tranquility, the international community's eyes are focused on whether Israel will choose to strike back further, raising tensions in the region. The answer is obvious, and Israel has given a resounding answer through action.
On April 19, Israel launched a series of precision strikes covering Syria's Suweida province, Iraq's Baghdad and Babylon provinces, and Iran's vital Isfahan province.
Deafening explosions have been heard in these places, particularly in Isfahan province, which is the heart of Iran's nuclear facilities, and the city of Natanz, which is extremely sensitive to the location of an important plant for enriching uranium at the nuclear weapon level. In response, Iran quickly activated its air defense system, and Tehran International Airport was temporarily grounded, and the atmosphere suddenly became tense.
Iran, with a population of more than 80 million, abundant natural resources and a vast territory, has given birth to an independent and complete industrial system. This independence bodes well for Iran's far-reaching strategic potential and development prospects, and given enough time, the possibilities for the future are immeasurable.
By contrast, Israel is surrounded by a sinister environment in which the Jordanian and Saudi royal families maintain superficially friendly relations, and almost all of its neighbors and powers are hostile to Israel.
Of particular concern is the fact that behind the many enemies stands the support of Iran, which is able to endlessly weaken Israel by aiding these "little brothers". At present, Israel is powerless to deal with organizations like Hamas, let alone bear the burden of a long-term war of attrition. The confluence of these factors dooms Israel to lack sufficient confidence in the future situation, and they are eager to seize the present moment and solve Iran's major problem as soon as possible, because if this opportunity is missed, the next one may be far away.
In this intricate chess game, although there seems to be a possibility for the two sides to withdraw their troops after the Iranian missile attack, there is one core issue that needs to be resolved urgently, and that is Netanyahu's political fate. The Israeli prime minister has only one clear goal: to seek the protection of the Biden administration from the fate of liquidation when he leaves office.
And now, not only the left-wing camp is dissatisfied with him, but even the right-wing forces that once supported him are angry with him under the influence of the defeat in the Gaza conflict. As the prime minister, it is naturally difficult to escape accountability for his defeats on the battlefield, and once he steps down, the spearhead of public opinion is likely to be directed at him.
However, the United States is the only one that can provide a safe haven for Netanyahu. Historically, there have been many examples of the United States sheltering allies who have stepped down, such as former Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Sr., who, despite being accused of tens of billions of dollars in corruption during his tenure, was able to take refuge in the United States after stepping down, and even transferred most of his ill-gotten gains to the United States. It is said that he fled the Philippines on a US military plane.
At the moment, the dilemma facing the Biden administration is that Netanyahu has created chaos to such an outrageous level that he has even dragged the United States into a quagmire. If he is not punished, the subsequent Israeli leadership may interpret it as follows: no matter how big the basket is, the United States will clean up the mess for him.
Israel's political ecology has made the United States' control over its political arena relatively limited, especially in its control of right-wing forces. If another Netanyahu, or something more extreme, takes the helm of Israel, the United States will face unpredictable challenges, so Netanyahu must accept some form of punishment, or at least step down, so that centrist Benny Gantz has a chance to come to the fore.
However, Netanyahu's current situation has made him afraid to step down easily, or even end the wartime situation, and the attack on Iran has become an important pawn in his hands. He seems to be sending a signal to the United States: "Do you want to help me? If not, I will do something against Iran, even if its nuclear facilities are what it is, do you think I will not dare?" The wrestling between the two countries has thus turned into a "game of cowards," with neither side wanting to be seen as cowards and therefore competing to escalate the situation. In order to show that he is not a coward, Biden is plotting to bring down Netanyahu, and Netanyahu is trying to prove his resolve by targeting Iran's nuclear facilities.
In this context, we can use a slightly exaggerated but vivid metaphor to compare the relationship between Netanyahu and Biden to a helpless parent and a child crying hysterically. The naughty child Netanyahu cries hoarsely, attracting crowds of onlookers, and the parent Biden tries his best to reassure but to no avail, and Biden is helpless and embarrassed under the gaze of onlookers.
Your child's emotions are often elusive, and the more you try to persuade him to stop crying, the more intense he will cry. Today, the delicate relationship between Netanyahu and Biden is exactly that, with the two men holding each other apart on their own positions and holding each other at bay, shaping the complex landscape of the Middle East in a volatile place.