For a long time, the Russian army and the Armenian army worked together to guard the border between Turkey and Iran, and Armenia is the only country with Russian troops stationed in it, apart from Russia itself. According to the original plan, the Russian peacekeeping force would end its mission in 2025, but now it will be withdrawn after the first quarter of 2024.
But this result can only be said to be self-inflicted by Armenia. At the beginning of last month, Armenia expressed its dissatisfaction with the Russian army and demanded that Russian border guards withdraw from Zvartnots airport and prepare to take over the border itself. But Armenia did not expect that the Russian army would move so quickly and withdraw all the peacekeepers.
The Nagorno-Karabakh region has long been at the heart of tensions between the two countries, with the two countries clashing over the region several times, most recently in 2020. Russia, as one of the major forces in the region, has largely helped maintain a fragile peace in the region.
[Armenian Prime Minister Pashinian]
To some extent, the Russian army is an insurance that stops in front of Armenia, and now that the Russian army is gone, once a conflict breaks out, Armenia will have to rely on itself. In particular, if Azerbaijan chooses to take advantage of this change to push for superiority in the disputed territories, it will put Armenia under even greater security pressure.
In addition, the withdrawal of Russian troops may be seen as a signal of Russia's reduction in support for Armenia, leading to Armenia's political isolation internationally, especially when dealing with relations with Azerbaijan.
And the reason why Armenia has come to this point with Russia is also traceable.
In September last year, the Nagorno-Karabakh regional authorities announced that they had ceased to exist from January this year, dissolving the state. The background to this incident was the launch of an "anti-terrorist operation" by Azerbaijan in Nagorno-Karabakh and the swift end of the fighting. It is worth noting that during the entire conflict, Armenia did not send any military support, and the third Nagorno-Karabakh conflict ended abruptly, and decades of territorial disputes finally ended with the Nagorno-Karabakh region falling into the hands of Azerbaijan.
Armenia, on the other hand, sees Russia's partiality in the Nagorno-Karabakh issue as the root cause of its loss of the Nagorno-Karabakh region, and complains that the CSTO has stood by and failed to fulfill its commitments.
[Armenia and Azerbaijan conflict]
Since then, Armenia has shown extreme dissatisfaction with Russia's actions and has taken a series of reactive measures, including suspending its participation in the CSTO and news of possible EU membership. In addition, Armenia also made insulting remarks about Russia, saying that it should not have chosen to be with Russia in the first place, and completely tore its face with Russia. And after the quarrel with Russia, Armenia began to move closer to the West at a rapid pace, looking for new backers.
But then again, Russia can't be blamed entirely for this. Four years ago, after the end of the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War, Azerbaijan and Armenia reached a five-year truce. However, in just two years, Armenia began to block the Lachin passage and turned to Europe and the United States for support. In addition, it is worth mentioning that the Armenian Prime Minister sent his wife to visit Ukraine, which was also seen by Russia as a provocation, causing Russia to no longer be willing to support Armenia.
And the reason why Armenia wants to expel the Russian army is because there is no hope for the Nagorno-Karabakh region, so it wants to completely cut off from the Russian side in order to quickly fall into the Western camp. But will all this really go as Armenia wants? I don't think so.
First of all, Armenia is generally regarded as a patron for Russia, especially in the context of Russia's power game with the West, its importance to Russia can be seen, once it really throws itself into the arms of the United States, it will be a great challenge for Russia, and Russia will certainly not want to see such a situation emerge.
[Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov]
Earlier, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov issued a stern warning to Armenia, noting that some erroneous statements by Armenia could lead to a "major adjustment" in Russian-Asian bilateral relations. The implication is that if Armenia continues its so-called provocative behavior, it may be treated as an "enemy" by Russia, or even treated in the same way as Ukraine.
Secondly, it is clear that Azerbaijan's ambitions are not limited to the Nagorno-Karabakh region. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has warned Armenia that Azerbaijan may attempt to invade southern Armenia by taking control of the Zangezur corridor, thereby connecting it to the enclave of Nakhichevan and eventually opening direct railroads and roads to Turkey.
Therefore, in the event of a resumption of conflict, Turkey is likely to intervene in support of Azerbaijan, while Western powers may provide limited support due to geographical constraints. In fact, unless the West invests and supports on a large scale, as it has done in Ukraine, it will be very limited in its help to Armenia by political and diplomatic statements from a distance.
In the face of such a complicated international and regional situation, there is still a big question mark over the extent to which Armenia will be able to safeguard its own security after losing Russia's asylum.