Armenia and Azerbaijan, which are close neighbors of Russia, have recently begun to move again, and after repeated complaints from Armenia, they have finally "scolded" the Russian peacekeepers in the Nagorno-Karabakh region. Armenia has always been very unbalanced, and as a member of the CSTO and a "good friend" of Russia, it is really incomprehensible to them that they have to be angry with Azerbaijan in the Nagorno-Karabakh region, where the Russian army is stationed. Armenia has turned to the West in the hope of embracing the "thigh" of the West and hoping to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh issue in a "fair and just" manner.
The Kremlin said on the same day that Russian peacekeepers had begun to withdraw from the Nagorno-Karabakh (Nagorno-Karabakh region), as reported by Agence France-Presse on April 17. According to reports, the evacuation of 1,960 Russian peacekeepers stationed in Nagorno-Karabakh has begun.
As everyone knows, the Transcaucasian region, because of its important geostrategic position and the complexity of its many ethnic groups, is a "powder keg" of the situation second only to the Balkans. Azerbaijan claims the Nagorno-Karabakh region as its territory, but it has always been inhabited by ethnic Armenians, and Azerbaijan has accused the Armenian government of being behind the separatist movement in the Nagorno-Karabakh region, and the two sides have continued to friction and conflict.
In September 2020, Azerbaijan and Armenia broke out in a 44-day conflict over the ownership of the Nagorno-Karabakh region, and then with the mediation of Russia, Russian peacekeepers also entered the Nagorno-Karabakh region, which could only barely maintain stability in the region. In September 2023, when the conflict resumed, Azerbaijan dispatched drones to launch a "counter-terrorism operation" in the Nagorno-Karabakh region, and it took only one day to effectively control the region.
On the one hand, this is due to Armenia's own "doing." Armenia is resentful of Azerbaijan's control of the Nagorno-Karabakh region, especially since more than three and a half years have passed since the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in September 2020, and Azerbaijan still has an advantage in this region. Previously, Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan has repeatedly complained that Russia does not guarantee Armenia's security, and he wants to join the International Criminal Court to seek their help, since you can't even handle Azerbaijan, then don't blame me for hugging someone else's "thigh". At that time, this move almost angered the Russian side, because the International Criminal Court had previously issued a so-called "arrest warrant" against Putin, and Armenia's move can be said to have reached a certain level of resentment against the Russian side, and the relationship between the two countries was also tested.
In fact, last month, the Armenian government began to urge the Russian army to withdraw from Zvartnots airport, intending to let its troops take over the border line, but only now that the Russian peacekeeping troops have begun to withdraw from the Nagorno-Karabakh region. It can be said that Armenia's behavior of wanting to find another "thigh" is also out of consideration of its strategic interests, but Pashinyan really has to think about it, even if they take refuge in the West, find the West as a "protective umbrella", and sell their benefits and interests, whether they are willing to help Armenia fight against Azerbaijan has to put a question mark, even if they are willing, the current Ukraine is a lesson from the past, not to mention that Pashinyan previously considered joining the International Criminal Court to "administer justice", it is really as illusory as a flower in the moon mirror in the water.
On the other hand, the Russian side also has its own strategic considerations. Azerbaijan has controlled the Nagorno-Karabakh region since the September 2023 conflict, when Russian peacekeepers were attacked, so the situation in the region is complicated. The withdrawal of troops also takes into account the actual situation on the ground, and the mission of the Russian peacekeeping force is to maintain peace and stability in the region.
It is worth mentioning that this change was also influenced by the bilateral actions of Armenia and Azerbaijan, which began to work on the border issue. It is reported that on April 17, Azerbaijan's assistant to the president and director of the Foreign Policy Bureau of the Office of the President of Azerbaijan Hajiyev announced that the top leaders of Azerbaijan and Russia have reached a consensus and decided to withdraw the temporary Russian peacekeeping troops from the Nagorno-Karabakh region ahead of schedule, and the militaries of the two countries will work closely together to take necessary measures to ensure the smooth progress of the evacuation. In other words, this withdrawal cannot be seen in isolation as a matter between Armenia and Russia, but as a matter between three sides, and the withdrawal of Russian troops this time is also to leave room for dialogue and negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
In fact, the traditional relationship between Armenia and Russia has always been very good, but after Pashinyan came to power, many of his alienating Russia and pro-Western actions have made Putin very annoyed, but Russia still has not given up friendly relations with Armenia. You must know that this joint military exercise will be in early September 2023, just half a month before Azerbaijan's "blitzkrieg" on the Nagorno-Karabakh region, and it is likely that because of this joint military exercise, Russia did not help Armenia. It can be said that Armenia is now in a situation where it has nothing to do, and no one else is to blame.
Therefore, if Armenia turns to the West, the United States will certainly let it take advantage of the flames, either as a pawn to divert Russia's attention or to provoke the Nagorno-Karabakh regional conflict, which will only aggravate regional contradictions and tensions, and at the same time make the hard-won efforts for détente and negotiation undone.
Armenia, for its part, should abandon the "dualistic" mentality and the idea of using force to solve problems. Like the territorial disputes between countries in modern times, the best way to resolve them is to resolve them politically, and to communicate with each other through dialogue and negotiation. Moreover, Armenia cannot recklessly turn to the West, because geographically it is determined that small countries in important strategic areas cannot be left alone, and the best solution is to be comfortable among the big powers.