April is about to enter the second half of the year, in the domestic corn market, since this month, the price trend in the producing areas is "chaotic", and the Northeast market continues to be stable, but the corn in North China has been "hit hard"......
The regional maize trend is differentiated, which is mainly affected by the level of surplus grain at the grassroots level and favorable policies, and the specific analysis is as follows:
In the Northeast market, due to the acceleration of the progress of corn grain sales, the grassroots surplus grain bottomed out, and since the Spring Festival, Heijiliao and Inner Mongolia, the grain storage continued to carry out the work of increasing corn reserves, the risk of corn selling pressure was reduced, and the grassroots grain source was quickly transferred to the channel.
However, due to the blockage of corn export in Northeast China, the inventory level of local feed enterprises is sufficient, and enterprises in many places are still mainly substituting overdue rice, while the inventory of deep processing enterprises is safe, and the market purchase and sales are cautious, and Northeast corn is running steadily!
In the North China market, due to the slow pace of corn grain sales in the early stage, the Northeast has a large number of low-priced corn imports, and the local consumption capacity is limited.
With the rise in temperature, the difficulty of corn storage has increased, and since the end of March, the pace of local grassroots grain sales has accelerated, and the amount of corn has been concentrated. After the centralized construction of the warehouse, the inventory basically reached 7~8 percent, and the demand for further replenishment weakened, which also caused a significant increase in the supply of corn in the circulation link.
After entering April, in Shandong, deep processing enterprises for nearly two weeks, the arrival of more than 1,000 cars of grain, enterprises rolling into storage, the difficulty of purchasing grain is weak, and the price sentiment is strong, in Shandong, the average price of corn fell below 1.16 yuan, and the listed price of some enterprises fell to about 1.13 yuan / catty!
Of course, in North China, corn selling pressure is concentrated, and the local grain storage is less than expected, only after mid-April, sporadic direct warehouse has a certain replenishment of corn operations, which is also difficult to alleviate the pressure on the supply side, corn prices continue to fall!
Now, April is about to come to an end, in North China, the risk of selling pressure at the grassroots level is gradually decreasing, the market level is gradually decreasing, the corn market will have limited room for further decline, sporadic enterprises have successively raised prices to replenish the operation, and the market bullish mentality has heated up!
According to the data, in March, the level of imported corn was 1.71 million tons, a sharp decrease of 22% compared with last year, and the total amount of imported corn in 1~3 months was 7.9 million tons, and the cost of imported corn was 2039.58 yuan / ton!
According to the analysis of the agency, due to the previous news issued by the customs, restricting domestic traders from stopping the transportation of imported corn to the bonded area, the enthusiasm of domestic traders to purchase imported corn may be reduced, and some traders have canceled foreign corn orders, which has certain support for alleviating the oversupply of domestic corn!
Affected by the shrinkage of imported corn, in the medium and long term, the rise of domestic corn may be unstoppable! However, from a rational point of view, in the short term, spot corn is still facing multiple pressures!
On the one hand, the channel inventory of raw grain is high, and the fundamentals of corn spot supply are still loose, especially in May, in North China and the Huanghuai region, some traders in order to meet the wheat storage, corn or will concentrate on the operation of the warehouse, and the corn market still has concentrated pressure on supply;
On the other hand, the cost of imported corn is low, the enthusiasm of corn substitution in the southern sales area, feed and deep processing enterprises still exists, while in the northern region, the difficulty of corn export in ports increases! The inventory level of corn in local feed and deep processing enterprises is high, and the consumption capacity is limited, in particular, the domestic pig production capacity continues to be reduced, the level of pig inventory is gradually declining, the slaughter of meat and poultry has increased significantly, and the corn procurement demand of feed enterprises is sluggish. The deep processing enterprises have entered the stage of shutdown and maintenance, and the consumption capacity of corn has gradually decreased.
Therefore, in the North China market, although corn has the opportunity to stop falling and pick up, the market will still face multiple pressures, and in the short term, the corn market may not have a significant rebound opportunity!