According to customs data, in March 2024, 5.54 million tons of soybeans were imported, down 15.3% year-on-year. In January ~ March, soybean imports were 18.58 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10.8%!
By the first quarter, soybean imports into the port decreased, domestic oil mills soybean and soybean meal inventories gradually depleted, by the Brazilian discount price rose, some oil mills "cut off beans to stop", domestic soybean meal spot appeared against the trend of rebound, from the end of February to late March, coastal oil mills, Shandong, Jiangsu, Guangdong and Tianjin traders, soybean meal spot quotation rose to 3570 ~ 3680 yuan / ton, some oil mill quotation rose 480 yuan / ton!
However, since late March, the soybean meal market has shown a volatile downward trend, on April 11, the soybean meal quotation of oil mills fell to 3210 ~ 3270 yuan / ton, and the quotation fell back to the level before the price increase!
The logic that supports the price reduction of soybean meal!
On the one hand, due to the arrival of "massive" soybeans in Hong Kong, the agency estimates that in April, soybean imports to Hong Kong or will reach 9.57 million tons, in May, imported soybeans to Hong Kong or will surge to about 11.88 million tons, the level of soybean inventory in domestic oil mills has gradually improved, the operating rate of enterprises will also be greatly improved, and the supply capacity of soybean meal will be further improved!
On the other hand, due to the continuous de-production of pig production capacity, the scale of pig inventory continues to decline, the level of feed consumption declines, the rhythm of soybean meal accumulation or will be greatly improved, and the strong supply and weak demand of spot soybean meal may be highlighted, which is bound to inhibit the consumption level of soybean meal.
Therefore, the market generally estimates that the prospect of soybean meal is slightly biased, but from the perspective of the current market situation, soybean meal is "not moving", and the bottom of the market support still exists!
According to the analysis of institutional data, at present, the spot price of soybean meal of domestic oil mills is 3230~3330 yuan/ton, and the price of soybean meal of oil mills is adjusted by 10~40 yuan/ton.
Although this month's USDA monthly supply and demand report did not adjust the estimated output of South American soybeans, the Brazilian discount price rose to 130 cents / bu against the trend, which also reflects the weak risk of selling pressure on South American soybeans.
Affected by the high discount price in Brazil, the cost of domestic imported soybeans remains high, which also has certain support for spot soybean meal;
Second, the agency predicts that after June, El Niño will turn to a La Niña event, and the occurrence of La Niña events may affect North American soybean producing areas, resulting in dry weather, poor soil moisture, and stronger market sentiment for climate speculation!
Third, the inflationary pressure in the United States has not abated, and the dollar market has strengthened, which has also exacerbated the inflationary pressure on bulk agricultural products, which may have some support for CBOT soybeans!
Therefore, due to the strong soybean discount quotation in Brazil and the high cost of domestic imported soybeans, in the short term, the soybean meal spot may maintain a broadband shock trend, and the market should not be overly pessimistic!
However, due to the import of soybeans or will be a large number of Hong Kong, the domestic soybean supply pattern is further relaxed, the supply capacity of soybean meal has also improved significantly, the market still has downward pressure, the market will focus on the change of Brazilian soybean quotation and the change of market speculation for North American weather!
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