Foreword
In 2023, the transaction volume of used passenger cars will increase by 15% to 14.78 million units, reaching a new high in the past five years. With the support of the trade-in policy, consumers' enthusiasm for redemption has also been further improved, injecting new vitality into the second-hand car market and promoting the sustainable prosperity and development of the second-hand car market. In order to gain in-depth insight into the development of the second-hand car market, this report will start from the two major fields of fuel and new energy, deeply analyze the supply and demand characteristics and supply and demand differences of the second-hand car market, reveal the new breakthroughs and new characteristics of the second-hand car industry, and aim to provide strong support for the sustainable and healthy development of the industry and jointly open a new chapter in the second-hand car market. (The data on the supply and demand characteristics of car sources presented in this report comes from Autohome's used car big data, and the market characteristics are more high-end than the overall market due to the prominent proportion of "high-value users" on the platform.)
Key takeaways:
1. In 2019~2023, the compound growth rate of second-hand car transactions will be 6.6%, exceeding the compound growth rate of the new car market (1.2%)
2. 40%~60% of users will buy old cars after selling them, and the introduction of the new policy of "trade-in" will provide new momentum for the circulation of new and old markets
3. In 2023, the average age of fuel second-hand vehicles will be 5.1 years, and the age of new energy vehicles will be shorter, only 2.1 years, which is longer than last year
4. The demand for fuel second-hand cars is concentrated in low-cost models below 150,000, accounting for more than 50% of the demand.
5. The supply and demand of fuel second-hand car brands are balanced, and the three luxury brands of Mercedes-Benz, BMW and Audi are the most popular among users
6. New energy second-hand car users prefer "big cars", and the demand for medium-sized and above accounts for as much as 62%
- There is a significant difference between supply and demand between new energy used car brands, with Tesla and Ideal used cars in strong demand, but BYD, BMW, and Volkswagen are "oversupplied"
- Overview of the used car market
The trading volume of used cars is growing in volatility, providing momentum for the circulation of the car market
In 2019~2023, the transaction volume of used passenger cars will show a fluctuating growth, climbing from 11.43 million in 2019 to 14.78 million in 2023, with a compound growth rate of 6.6%, mainly affected by the epidemic and the "involution" of the new energy new car market, but still exceeding the compound growth rate of new cars (1.2%);
According to the purchase situation of users after selling second-hand cars, Autohome data shows that after selling second-hand cars, 30%~40% of users will buy new cars, and 10%~20% of users will buy second-hand cars.
In March 2024, the State Council issued a notice on the "Action Plan for Promoting Large-scale Equipment Renewal and Consumer Goods Trade-in" to promote the trade-in of automobiles, smooth circulation and blockages, and promote automobile cascade consumption and renewal consumption. In April, the Ministry of Commerce and other 14 departments jointly issued the "Action Plan for Promoting the Trade-in of Consumer Goods", which clarified the key tasks of car trade-in, increased fiscal and financial policy support, and the central government and local governments linked to arrange funds to support the scrapping and renewal of automobiles, and encouraged qualified localities to support car replacement and renewal, and promoted the convenience of second-hand car transactions.
In order to promote the upgrading of the consumer market and optimize the structure of the consumer market, the old and new markets have formed a positive interaction, and the trade-in policy has been introduced. The introduction of the trade-in policy will further promote the acceleration of the frequency of new car buyers in the early stage, provide stable circulation momentum for the new car market, and also allow higher-value models to enter the second-hand car market and promote the high-quality development of the second-hand car market.
The demand for new energy used cars is greater than the supply, and the transaction vitality will continue to grow in the future
In the past two years, the penetration of new energy in the number of cars and the penetration of new energy in the second-hand car transaction volume are basically the same frequency, and it is foreseeable that the development of the new car market will continue to input new energy vehicles to the second-hand car market; At this stage, the market demand for second-hand cars is greater than the supply, and with the improvement of new energy products, it will further promote the release of demand for new energy second-hand cars. In the future, the vitality of new energy used car transactions will continue to grow.
Changes in the supply of used cars
The trade-in policy will further promote the growth of second-hand car supply, and the source of new energy vehicles will also meet the growth peak
In 2023, the new source of used cars will increase by 11% year-on-year, and the introduction of the new trade-in policy will also further promote the growth of the source of used cars, thereby activating the vitality of the second-hand car market and strengthening supply.
From the perspective of the composition of second-hand car sources, the main body of vehicle sources is still fuel vehicles, accounting for 93%; In 2023, the number of new energy used cars will increase by 55% year-on-year, accounting for 7.1% of the overall vehicle supply, which is close to the new energy penetration rate of new cars in 2020~2021. Since 2021, the sales of new energy vehicles have ushered in explosive growth, and it is speculated that the new energy vehicle source in the second-hand car market will also usher in a growth peak in 2024.
The price structure of fuel second-hand vehicles is stable, the price of new energy second-hand vehicles has dropped significantly, and the price of vehicles is concentrated in the mid-end price
The fuel vehicle market has a more mature pricing system, and the overall price structure remains basically stable, with second-hand car sources mainly distributed in the low-price segment below 150,000 yuan in 2023, accounting for 56.5%; The proportion of vehicles with more than 300,000 vehicles also increased slightly, accounting for nearly 24%. However, affected by the price reduction of new energy, the prices of many mainstream fuel vehicles, especially joint venture brand models, have been greatly impacted, and the prices of Accord and Sylphy have been reduced by more than 10% compared with the beginning of last year.
Affected by the wave of price reductions and rapid product iteration, the price of new energy second-hand cars has dropped significantly, and the prices of mainstream models such as Model 3, Model Y, and Ideal ONE have dropped by more than two percent. From the perspective of price structure distribution, the price distribution of used vehicles for new energy vehicles is relatively balanced, with a high proportion of 5-250,000 yuan, accounting for more than 56%; Compared with fuel vehicles, the price range of vehicle sources is more concentrated in 10-250,000 yuan, an increase of more than 13 percentage points year-on-year, among which mainstream brands such as BYD, Tesla, Ideal, Weilai, Xiaopeng, and BMW have increased significantly.
The age of fuel vehicles is longer and the structure is more stable, and the proportion of short-aged vehicles within 3 years of new energy vehicles exceeds 80%
The age structure of fuel vehicles is stable, and nearly half of the vehicle age is concentrated in 3-8 years. The average age of vehicles in 23 years is 5.1 years, a slight increase compared with 22 years, affected by the cancellation of the mandatory scrapping policy, the growth of fuel vehicles with a long age of more than 10 years, and then the average age of vehicles;
The development time of new energy is short, and the age of second-hand cars is relatively short, and the proportion of short-age cars within 3 years exceeds 80%. The average age of vehicles in 2023 will be 2.1 years, a slight increase compared with 2022, and with the increase in the stock of new energy vehicles, the age of vehicles is gradually getting longer.
The distribution of fuel and new energy vehicle sources is similar, with sedans as the main source but the supply has begun to shrink, and the supply of SUVs has increased
From the perspective of the distribution of second-hand car sources, whether it is fuel or new energy, the supply of vehicles is dominated by sedans but the supply has begun to shrink, the supply of SUVs has increased, the supply of fuel compact to medium and large mainstream markets has increased by 2.2%, and the supply of new energy medium and large models has increased by 2.3%, and the supply of new energy second-hand vehicles is gradually shifting to the larger SUV market.
The supply of Chinese brand vehicles has increased, driven by mainstream leading brands such as BYD and Wei Xiaoli
The proportion of second-hand fuel vehicles is dominated by luxury brands, the proportion of joint venture brand vehicles has declined, and the proportion of luxury and Chinese brand vehicles has increased slightly. The source of luxury brand cars is concentrated in the first-line luxury of Mercedes-Benz and BMW; The source of Chinese brand vehicles is further concentrated in Geely, Haval and other leading brands;
More than 6 new energy second-hand cars have become Chinese brands, and the continuous supply of BYD, Wei Xiaoli and other brands is still driving the proportion of Chinese brand car sources; Tesla's share of vehicles fell by more than 6%, resulting in a decline in the overall share of luxury brands.
The distribution of fuel vehicle sources in cities at the line level is stable, and the sources of new energy vehicles are scattered from first-tier cities to second-tier and below-tier cities
Fuel vehicles are mainly in second- and third-tier cities, accounting for more than 60% of the total, and the line-level structure is relatively stable.
With the continuous improvement of the penetration rate of new energy in lower-tier cities, the structure of new energy vehicles will continue to move closer to the form of fuel vehicles.
3. Changes in demand for second-hand cars
The demand for second-hand cars continues to rise, and the intention to buy new energy second-hand cars exceeds 10%
In 2023, the overall second-hand car users' purchase intention will increase by 13%, of which the scale of new energy intention will increase by 60%, while the fuel vehicle will only increase by 9%, and the user's purchase intention for new energy second-hand cars will grow rapidly.
In 2023, the proportion of new energy vehicle purchase intentions has exceeded 10%, reaching a maximum of 12.5% by the end of the year, which is higher than the proportion of new energy vehicle sources, and the demand continues to be strong and the demand is greater than the supply.
More than half of the users' fuel second-hand car demand is concentrated in models below 150,000, and the demand for new energy is more concentrated in the 10-250,000 market
The demand of fuel second-hand car users is concentrated in the market below 150,000, and the proportion of users below 150,000 will increase by 3.5 percentage points year-on-year in 2023, exceeding 50%;
The demand of new energy second-hand car users is concentrated in the 10-250,000 market, a significant increase of 17 percentage points compared with the same period last year in 22 years, of which the 15-200,000 market has become the most concentrated price band for the demand of new energy second-hand car users.
Whether it is fuel or new energy, the demand for vehicles has increased within three years, promoting the acceleration of second-hand car circulation
Regardless of fuel or new energy, short-aged vehicles in good condition within 3 years are favored by users, and the demand is rising.
From the perspective of the distribution of vehicle age demand, the demand for fuel vehicles is concentrated in 3-8 years old, and the demand for long-term fuel vehicles more than 8 years old also exceeds 20%. In the new energy second-hand car market, 83% of the demand points to short-term vehicles within 3 years. Affected by factors such as vehicle supply and battery life, the demand for long-term new energy used cars that are more than 8 years old is only 1%, and it is declining.
Luxury brands dominate the fuel demand market, and more than 6% of new energy users prefer Chinese brands
From the perspective of the brand type structure of the fuel and new energy used car market, the supply and demand structure is consistent.
Luxury brands still dominate the demand for fuel-powered used cars, and the demand for used cars of Chinese brands is on the rise, grabbing the joint venture market. Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Audi are the most concerned fuel second-hand car brands by users;
The demand structure of the new energy second-hand market is stable, and Chinese brands still occupy a dominant position, accounting for nearly sixty percent; Tesla, BYD, and Ideal are the new energy used car brands that attract the most attention from users.
New energy second-hand car users prefer "big cars", and the demand for medium-sized cars and above accounts for 62%
In terms of users' demand for second-hand cars, whether it is fuel or new energy, users' demand for cars has decreased, and the demand for SUVs has increased. New energy users have a large market demand for compact and above, especially the demand for medium and large SUVs, and users have a greater pursuit of more space for new energy second-hand cars.
The demand for fuel vehicles in second-tier cities has increased, and the demand for new energy in second-tier and lower-tier cities has increased
From the perspective of the distribution of demand user cities, the demand for fuel vehicles in second-tier cities has increased, and the demand for fuel vehicles is consistent with the performance of supply, and the demand for fuel vehicles is mainly in second- and third-tier cities;
At the same time, with the continuous improvement of the penetration rate of new energy, the demand for new energy is dispersed from first-tier cities to low-tier cities, and the demand for new energy from second-tier and lower-tier users increases.
Fourth, the difference between supply and demand of second-hand cars
The supply and demand of fuel second-hand car brands are basically balanced, and the new energy market is in short supply driven by strong demand brands such as Tesla and Ideal, but most brands are still facing oversupply
In 2023, there will be little difference between the supply and demand of used fuel vehicle brands, and the annual change in supply and demand will be small. Driven by Tesla and ideal demand, demand for new energy second-hand cars is greater than supply, but from the perspective of specific brand performance, most new energy brands are in a situation where supply exceeds demand. Among them, only Tesla, Ideal, NIO, and Zeekr demand is greater than supply; Compared with 22 years, BYD and BMW's new energy second-hand cars have been adjusted from demand greater than supply to supply greater than demand, and Wuling has adjusted from demand greater than supply to supply and demand balance.
The regional supply and demand concentration of fuel used vehicles is stable, and the supply and demand of new energy used vehicles are dispersed from the head to other provinces
In 2023, the top 3 provinces in the supply and demand of fuel used vehicles are Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Jiangsu, with a supply share of 34.6% and a demand-side share of 35.9%, which is basically the same as last year, and the concentration performance is stable;
In 2023, the top 3 provinces in the supply and demand of new energy used cars are Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Shanghai, with a supply share of 38.7%, a year-on-year decrease of 5%, and a demand-side share of 40.9%, a year-on-year decrease of 3.8%, with the demand of the top 10 provinces exceeding the supply and the supply gap increasing. From the perspective of demand-supply ratio, the provinces with the largest supply gap are Beijing, Zhejiang and Hebei.
epilogue
In recent years, with the increase in the number of cars, the scale of the second-hand car trading market has continued to expand, and the trading activity has been continuously improved, especially the vitality of new energy second-hand car transactions is particularly prominent, showing a strong momentum of development. With the improvement of new energy product strength, the market demand continues to be strong, and it is expected that the new energy used car market will usher in a high growth stage. In 2024, under the central government's vigorous promotion of the "old for new" guidelines, with the successive introduction of financial subsidy policies in various places, the supply of second-hand cars will be further strengthened, and the rich supply of vehicles will meet the diversified choice needs of users, thereby stimulating transaction vitality, accelerating the circulation rate of the second-hand car and new car market, and effectively promoting the healthy development of the entire automobile market. (Text/Autohome Research Institute)