#外媒: The US side confirmed that an Israeli missile hit Iran#
On April 19, Israeli media reported explosions in Syria, Iraq's Baghdad region, and Iran's Isfahan and Natanz. The British TV Sky TV published a news report that there were at least three large-scale explosions in Isfahan. Official U.S. sources confirmed that this was an Israeli strike against Iran, and Iranian media linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) confirmed that a huge explosion had occurred in the city of Kajavarestan in Isfahan province. Iran has issued a Notice of Navigation (NOTAM) asking civil aviation pilots to avoid the airspace over the western and central parts of the country, and at around 10 o'clock Beijing time, Iran's Supreme National Security Council has convened an emergency meeting. There are also online videos that allegedly capture anti-aircraft fire in Isfahan after the explosion.
It is no secret that there are significant Iranian forces in Syria and Iraq, especially those related to the Quds Force of the Revolutionary Guards, and the targets of the Baghdad strikes are said to be meetings of senior officers of the Quds Force. Isfahan and Natanz in central Iran have facilities related to Iran's nuclear program, Isfahan has uranium conversion facilities, and Natanz has Iran's main uranium enrichment plant. Therefore, the targets of the Israeli operation are the overseas units of the Quds Force and Iran's nuclear facilities.
After an Israeli airstrike on the Iranian embassy in Syria, Iran fired a large number of missiles and drones in response. After Iran directly attacked Israel itself, Israel has internal struggles with how to fight back. As for whether to fight back, there was a consensus in Israel's wartime cabinet that both the left and right wings agreed to fight back, and the core discussion was "how to fight back smartly". The problem is that Israel lacks the ability to control the conflict, and it also relatively lacks the firepower to strike Iran, which is far inferior in scale to the counterfirepower that Iran can pose to Israel. Israel's biggest struggle is how to make sure that Iran doesn't fight back after a retaliation.
It was reported that Israel had twice decided to launch a retaliation before 18 April and then temporarily withdrew its decision. Now, Israel has finally decided to launch a strike on Iran itself. The method used is most likely to be an air strike on central Iran by the F-35I after refueling in the air in Iraqi airspace, which is also in line with the message that "there is a lot of aircraft activity in Iraqi airspace".
In addition, it was reported that among the Iranian targets that were hit was the 8th tactical air base south of Tehran, where a squadron of F-14 fighters was stationed. If this news is true, it can be seen that the scale of Israel's air force is not small, and it is a large-scale air attack rather than a simple stealth aircraft point strike. The purpose of striking the Iranian Air Force is to reduce the probability of its own being intercepted.
In the end, Israel chose the most drastic mode to fight back, which was somewhat unexpected. It is foreseeable that Iran will inevitably respond violently, with ballistic missile, cruise missile, and drone strikes on a larger scale than the previous one already in the making, and even soon. Iran's targets are likely to be Israeli air bases, command centers and other military targets, and may be linked with Allah and the Houthis.
The outcome will depend on the speed and effectiveness of Iran's counterattack. Israel will only be able to stop if it inflicts heavy damage on Israel. The United States will also be embarrassed, because if Iran is serious, it will inevitably put more pressure on the United States, and its strategy of protecting Israel and holding Israel down will be ineffective. However, it is unclear whether the U.S. military has provided in-flight refueling support to the Israeli Air Force, and if the U.S. simply allows Israel to fight back and resolutely guarantee Israel's security, the effectiveness of Iran's counterattack will be greatly reduced. Of course, on the other hand, the United States will also get back into trouble in the Middle East, which is a good thing for us.
An escalation of the conflict seems inevitable. It can be said that Israel has single-handedly caused such a result, and Israel is a highly specialized security black hole in the Middle East security landscape.