Public Offering China Research Group | Mina
编辑、统筹 | Jamie
制作 | Jessica
Xu Yan is divided into two cycles, one is 2012-2018 and the other is 2019-2024. In 2019, Xu Yan returned to Dacheng Fund and served as the fund manager of five products, including Chengcheng Ruixiang and Dacheng Competitive Advantage.
The following year, in 2020, the steady value investor did not perform well, even lagging behind the CSI 300. Why is that? What's the problem? How did he fix it? What was the result?
"Falling"
2020 is the first full year for Xu Yan to return to Dacheng Fund and start managing public funds independently.
This year, "Dacheng Ruixiang" achieved a positive return of 15.45%. However, Xu Yan did not outperform the CSI 300, and even underperformed his peers, with the performance significantly lagging behind the average of 53.69% of the mixed equity fund.
2020 is a historic market for public funds, with the top industries in the index rising in pharmaceuticals, consumption and semiconductors, and the bottom industries in the rankings being finance, real estate and energy.
In 2020, the key holdings of "Dacheng Ruixiang" include Shaanxi Coal, Goldwind Technology, Zhejiang Longsheng, CITIC Publishing, Fuanna, China Telecom, etc., which basically have distinctive characteristics of high-interest dividends.
As a result, it is obvious that Xu Yan likes to dig into the rhythm of individual stocks and the rhythm of the market group.
Although he did not outperform his peers in 2020, Xu Yan is indeed a deep value fund manager, and he can also adhere to his investment framework and style, so that although he may not be able to run out to become the best fund manager in the extreme group market, in the complex market since 2021, Xu Yan's products can beat the market and run better.
It is precisely because of Xu Yan's persistence that he achieved an excellent result of 26.28% in the volatile market in 2021, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 and the partial stock fund index.
In the 2021 annual report, Xu Yan joked that the fund achieved a return of about 20% in 2021. Compared with 2020, the return rate is close, but the ranking among similar funds is diametrically opposite, and it seems that the 20-year-old D-class student has become the 21-year-old A-class student.
In 2022 and 2023, Dacheng Ruixiang A will also achieve positive returns in the downturn.
Cambrian on the tuyere
Xu Yan is loyal to value, but not only value.
Although he said that he "couldn't understand", this did not affect Xu Yan's Cambrian in the second half of 2022.
According to the 2022 annual report of "Dacheng Ruixiang", Xu Yan increased his positions in Cambrian, Goodix Technology, and Fortune Federation of Industry when the technology sector plummeted at the end of 2022, and Goodix Technology became the 10th largest heavy stock of "Dacheng Ruixiang" at the end of 2022, Cambrian and Fortune Federation of Industry ranked the 15th and 17th largest holdings of "Dacheng Ruixiang", and Xu Yan's other product "Dacheng Hongyuan Return One Year Hold", Goodix Technology, Industrial Fortune Union and Cambrian ranked 6th, 7th, and 8th among the top 10 heavy stocks, respectively.
Cambrian is a company with artificial intelligence core chips for cloud servers, edge computing devices and terminal equipment, Goodix Technology is a leading semiconductor software and hardware solution company in the fields of smart terminals, Internet of Things and automotive electronics, with fingerprint recognition chips and touch chips, and FII is the world's largest 3C manufacturer.
Affected by the advent of ChatGPT, the AI market is extremely hot, and Cambrian's stock price has soared all the way in early 2023, from 54.15 yuan at the beginning of the year (closing price on January 3, 2023) to 270.40 yuan (closing price on April 21), nearly 5 times, becoming one of the most watched stocks on A-shares in the first half of 2023.
At the end of 2022, 5 of the products managed by Xu Yan bought Cambrian, holding a total of 1.7501 million shares of Cambrian, with a cumulative reference market value of about 434 million yuan, accounting for 0.7% of the total scale of Cambrian's circulation.
After the investment was realized, Xu Yan did not stay long. According to the second quarter report of 2023, Xu Yan's products under management have almost sold the above-mentioned technology stocks whose stock prices have risen significantly in the first half of 2023.
Afterwards, Xu Yan said that the positive return in the first quarter of 2023 was mainly due to the rise of a small number of holdings, and the net value rose in the second quarter, but only a very small number of individual stocks contributed it. He reminded investors that the growth in the size and net value of the funds under his management was slightly unusual.
It is difficult to say that Xu Yan predicted the explosion of ChatGPT and artificial intelligence in advance, after all, even Cambrian has no expectations for himself and the industry in the next six months. Cambrian can enter Xu Yan's sight, more likely because Cambrian's price in the second half of 2022 has fallen to his psychological range, which is in line with his stock selection framework.
"Agency"
Xu Yan's insistence on the investment framework has been recognized by the institution.
Since Xu Yan's return, the proportion of institutional holdings has increased significantly, from 2.31% in mid-2020 to 60.97% in 2023.
Another example is "Dacheng's competitive advantage", in 2016, institutions began to increase their holdings in a large proportion, and since then have maintained a high proportion of holdings. With Xu Yan stepping down in September 2018, institutions began to reduce their holdings of this product.
It wasn't until Xu Yan resumed managing this product in 2020 that institutions began to increase their holdings of this product in mid-2020, and the latest 2023 annual report shows that its institutional holding ratio is 82.20%.
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