"The industry has always actively promoted transformation and upgrading and structural adjustment, and with the development of the new energy industry in the future, the production capacity of phosphoric acid and industrial monoammonium phosphate will show a growth trend. At the 2024 Fertilizer Market and International Trade Seminar, Wang Ying, director of the information department of the China Phosphate Compound Fertilizer Industry Association, said that the phosphate fertilizer industry in the mainland is highly concentrated, and the phosphate fertilizer output of the top 10 enterprises accounts for nearly 70% of the total output. Production capacity and output increased simultaneously, and the overall capacity utilization rate of the industry was about 75%. With the decrease of phosphate rock grade, the utilization pressure of phosphogypsum increases, and the awareness of co-associated resource utilization is enhanced, and low-concentration phosphate fertilizer still maintains a certain market share. In terms of exports, the export volume of phosphate fertilizers from mainland China peaked at 14.142 million tons in 2021 and recovered to 10.791 million tons in 2023, an increase of 27.1%. Diammonium phosphate is still the most exported variety, accounting for an average of 48% of phosphate fertilizer exports from 2018 to 2023, and as low as 42% in 2022. followed by monoammonium phosphate, superphosphate, and binary compound fertilizer, accounting for 20%, 8%, and 8% of phosphate fertilizer exports from 2018 to 2023, respectively. India and Brazil remain the continent's largest exporters of phosphate fertilizers, accounting for about 35 percent. From the perspective of consumption, the apparent consumption of phosphate fertilizer in mainland China has been fluctuating between 11.5 million ~ 12 million tons (P2O5) from 2016 to 2023 after reaching its peak in 2012. In 2023, the apparent consumption of phosphate fertilizers in mainland China will increase by 1.0%, with little overall fluctuation, mainly due to the increase in demand for industrial monoammonium phosphate (including non-fertilizers). After declining for two consecutive years in 2021 and 2022, global phosphate fertilizer consumption will recover in 2023 and basically return to the previous level. From the perspective of price trends, from 2020 onwards, fertilizer prices have seen a wave of rise. By mid-2022, prices reached a phased peak, followed by a rational recovery of slow decline. In general, the price of the market is largely determined by supply and demand, and the overall situation will be stable this year.
From the perspective of phosphate rock supply, mainland phosphate rock production peaked in 2016 at 140 million tons, with an average annual compound growth rate of -2.7% from 2017 to 2022, accounting for 5% of the world's reserves and producing 45% of the world's phosphate rock. By the end of 2023, the mainland's phosphate rock production capacity under construction and planning will be about 35 million tons, and 15 million tons are expected to be put into operation in 2025. In 2023, the mainland will import 1.407 million tons of phosphate rock, the highest in history. From the perspective of demand, due to the superposition of multiple factors such as frequent extreme weather, rising trade protectionism and geopolitical turmoil, global phosphate fertilizer consumption continues to grow. Benefiting from the rapid development of new energy vehicles, lithium iron phosphate batteries are in strong demand. In 2023, the demand for phosphate rock for lithium iron phosphate will increase by 1 million tons of standard ore. At present, a large number of iron phosphate projects and supporting purified phosphoric acid projects are under construction, and it is expected that the average annual growth rate of phosphate rock demand will reach 4% from 2023 to 2026. From the price point of view, the downstream demand has been boosted, the number of domestic commodity phosphate rock has decreased, and the price will remain high. From the perspective of raw material sulfur, the total global sulfur production capacity is 110 million tons, with an output of 70 million tons. With the increase in domestic sulfur production, the mainland's dependence on sulfur imports has dropped from 66% in 2017 to less than 50%. In 2023, sulfur prices have returned to normal levels. In the face of risks such as the contradiction between supply and demand in the industry, insufficient resource endowment, weak comprehensive resource ability, and low level of innovation and development, Wang Ying suggested: First, we must enhance our ability to resist risks. Closely track the market, establish long-term raw material procurement cooperation, timely adjustment of product structure, safe and rapid return of capital turnover, pay attention to changes in the foreign exchange market, extend the upstream and downstream industrial chain, and strengthen and refine the sub-fields. Second, we must improve the level of products and services. The products should adapt to the needs of planting structure adjustment, and the demand for new products with high water solubility, adding synergistic substances, organic and inorganic combinations, and the synergy of medium and trace elements and large elements is increasing, and supporting fertilization technology should be provided. Third, we must enhance the capacity for green and sustainable development.
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Please indicate in the following format for reprinting: Source: Agricultural Resources Herald Author: Wang Meihong Editor: Chen Ran Review: Zhai Yiting Producer: Wu Junsheng