■China Economic Times reporter Zhang Yiming
In the first quarter, China's economy delivered a report card that "exceeded expectations", laying a positive foundation for achieving the annual economic growth target.
According to the economic data for the first quarter released by the National Bureau of Statistics on April 16, China's gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 5.3 percent year-on-year to 296299 billion yuan in the first quarter of this year, higher than the economic growth rate of last year, achieving a "good start" in the first quarter; the total retail sales of consumer goods 120327 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.7 percent; the national investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) increased by 4.5 percent year-on-year; and the total import and export of goods increased by 5.0 percent year-on-year.
The positive factors in the economic structure, such as the growth rate of industrial added value exceeding the GDP growth rate, the acceleration of the growth of private investment, and the acceleration of the growth of the high-tech sector, make people mostly cautiously optimistic about achieving the annual economic growth target. Experts interviewed by a reporter from the China Economic Times said that it is particularly important to give full play to the pulling and amplifying effect of government investment on enterprise investment to achieve the annual economic growth target.
01
Hand over a report card that "exceeded expectations".
"The GDP growth of 5.3% in the first quarter was mainly driven by the recovery of industry and the improvement of the service industry, which contributed more than 90% to GDP growth. On April 16, Sheng Laiyun, deputy director of the National Bureau of Statistics, said when introducing the operation of the national economy in the first quarter of 2024.
Zhang Junwei, a researcher at the Macroeconomic Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, pointed out to the China Economic Times that there are several main reasons for China's rapid economic growth in the first quarter of this year: first, the fiscal policy and monetary policy have been moderately strengthened to support economic growth; second, all walks of life have actively adjusted their business strategies to adapt to the new situation of economic recovery after the epidemic, and the "new three" have become economic bright spots; third, they have actively promoted the resolution of fiscal and financial risks, released reform signals, and significantly eased social tensions.
Zhang Junwei said that given the low base in the same period last year, China's economy is likely to continue to maintain a high growth rate in the second quarter. While seeing the favorable conditions, we should also see the risks and challenges. For example, the real estate market is still in the process of deep adjustment, local finances are facing great pressure, the international economic environment is complex, and export growth is facing new pressures. Overall, we are cautiously optimistic about achieving our full-year economic growth target.
The continuous improvement of the economy has further strengthened the confidence of enterprise development. Wang Jianping, chairman of Hainan Haiyao Co., Ltd., said in an interview with a reporter from China Economic Times that in the first quarter, the company's business continued to improve, and the overall sales of APIs, preparations and other products increased by 14.5% year-on-year, successfully outperforming the industry market, and further strengthening the company's confidence and determination in high-quality development. As China's economy continues to stabilize and rebound, the company's annual work goals will be more smoothly completed.
Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Development Research Center of the State Council, pointed out to the China Economic Times that the growth rate of industrial added value in the first quarter of this year is important to the rebound in investment and innovation-driven transformation and upgrading. This shows that under the pressure of existing market competition, enterprises are highly motivated to update equipment and technology, which has led to the faster development of high-tech industries and equipment manufacturing industries. He also stressed that to support the stabilization and rebound of the economy this year, it is necessary to particularly strengthen the role of investment, industry and the real economy, especially to give play to the pulling and amplifying effect of government investment on enterprise investment, which is particularly important for achieving the annual economic growth target.
02
Lay the foundation for a good year in the whole year
The "exceeding expectations" report card in the first quarter laid the foundation for achieving the annual economic growth target. Zhang Junwei said that there have been some structural changes in macroeconomic operation, and China's economic structure is continuing to be optimized.
Fan Ruoying, a researcher at the Bank of China Research Institute, holds a similar view. She told the China Economic Times reporter that combined with the economic data in the first quarter, industrial upgrading maintained a good trend, new drivers of economic growth continued to strengthen, and high-tech manufacturing grew rapidly. The recovery of external demand has helped the export growth rate to stabilize and rebound, and the foreign trade structure has been further optimized. Consumption will continue to play the role of the "ballast stone" of China's economic growth, and service consumption will maintain rapid growth.
Fan Ruoying believes that looking forward to the future, under the influence of the three driving factors of endogenous economic growth momentum, changes in the international environment and macro policy effects, China's economic prosperity is expected to further rebound. In terms of endogenous economic growth momentum, the potential of service consumption is expected to be further unleashed. At the same time, the trend of industrial transformation and upgrading is further accelerating, and the growth momentum of manufacturing investment is still strong. In terms of changes in the international environment, the global inventory cycle has entered the replenishment stage, which is conducive to the strengthening of external demand momentum, and the low base of the previous year will continue. In terms of macro policies, the efforts to stabilize growth policies are still expected to increase, policy tools such as ultra-long-term special treasury bonds will be accelerated, monetary policy is still likely to be lowered, and a new round of "large-scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade-in" will expand new space for domestic demand growth.
Xu Xiaoliang, co-CEO of Fosun International and chairman of Fosun Tourism, told the China Economic Times that under the macro background of the country's expansion of domestic demand and promotion of consumption, the development of the cultural tourism consumption industry has a broad space. At present, Fosun Tourism is actively planning the landing of its first "Super Mediterranean" project in Hainan, and looks forward to creating more world-class tourism and vacation products in the future, promoting the diversification of local tourism formats, the high-end consumption level and the internationalization of the source structure.
Image source of this article: photo.com
Chief Producer丨Wang Hui and Che Haigang
Producer丨Li Piguang, Wang Yu, Liu Weimin
Editor-in-Chief丨Mao Jinghui Editor丨Chen Shuhan