Decoding the economic data of the first quarter|The confidence and confidence of China's economy can be read in the data

Source: Xinhua News Agency

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On April 16, the National Bureau of Statistics released economic data for the first quarter. According to preliminary calculations, China's gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter of this year was 296299 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.3 percent at constant prices, and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.6 percent over the fourth quarter of last year. How do you view the economic data in the first quarter? What signals have been released? Xinhua Sike invited Wei Jianguo, vice chairman of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges and former vice minister of the Ministry of Commerce, Zhang Yansheng, chief researcher of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, and Yao Jingyuan, special researcher of the Counsellors' Office of the State Council and former chief economist of the National Bureau of Statistics, to make an in-depth analysis.

"A good start" has become a consensus, and China's economy has maintained a steady and positive trend

"Good start", "good recovery" and "exciting" are the key words used by the three economists in the interview to evaluate China's economic performance in the first quarter.

Yao Jingyuan said that the economic growth rate of 5.3 percent is relatively high among the world's major economies, and China is still the largest engine of world economic growth.

Regarding the main factors behind the "good start" of the economy in the first quarter, Zhang Yansheng analyzed that the good start of China's economy in the first quarter stems from the fact that the central government has always taken adhering to high-quality development as the last word in the new era, reflecting the firm confidence and determination to focus on the central work of economic construction. Yao Jingyuan believes that we adhere to the general tone of seeking progress while maintaining stability, promoting stability with progress, and establishing first and then breaking through, and various policies are working forward and concentric, which is an important reason for a good start in the first quarter of this year.

Wei Jianguo said: Judging from the economic data for the first quarter, China's economy has three bright spots: First, high-quality economic development has achieved results, traditional industries are upgrading, emerging industries are growing, and the cultivation of future industries is also being strengthened; second, the innovative effect of the system and mechanism has been highlighted, which has promoted the reform of rules, regulations, management, and standards; and third, China's high-level opening up to the outside world has played a very good role in promoting the mainland's business environment, especially attracting foreign investment.

The economy in the first quarter plays a "weather vane" role in the economic trend and market expectations for the whole year. Experts believe that the national economy in the first quarter has laid a good foundation for achieving the annual goals and tasks, and is full of confidence in achieving the economic growth target of about 5% in 2024.

Foreign trade has achieved "stable quality and quantity", and the momentum of sustained growth is strong

According to customs data, in the first quarter, the scale of import and export of goods in mainland China exceeded 10 trillion yuan for the first time in the same period in history, a year-on-year increase of 5%, of which exports were 5.74 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.9 percent, and imports were 4.43 trillion yuan, an increase of 5 percent. The growth rate of imports and exports hit a new high in six quarters.

Wei Jianguo said: First of all, the superimposed effect of the mainland's policies on stabilizing foreign trade has appeared, and secondly, the external conditions of foreign trade have improved this year, and thirdly, the integrated development of domestic and foreign trade has smoothed the internal and external dual circulation, so that the mainland's foreign trade structure has become more and more adaptable to changes in the international situation and is more able to cope with risks. In the future, the momentum for the sustained growth of foreign trade will be strong, and it will continue to play a stabilizing and supporting role in the economy throughout the year.

Zhang Yansheng believes that the marginal improvement of external demand in the first quarter, and the overall performance of the global shipping, logistics and trade chain is better than expected, reflecting the good start of the mainland's foreign trade, strong import and export resilience and vitality.

Yao Jingyuan said that this is mainly due to four factors, one is to benefit from the firm expansion of high-level opening up. In the first quarter, the mainland's imports and exports to the Belt and Road countries increased by 5.5 percent, accounting for 47.4 percent of the total import and export value, an increase of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year. The growth rate of imports and exports of the Belt and Road countries and other BRICS countries is higher than the overall growth rate of imports and exports; second, the mainland has a sound industrial chain and supply chain, with 41 industrial categories, 207 medium industrial categories, and 666 industrial sub-categories, and is the only country in the world that has all the industrial categories in the United Nations Industrial Classification. Third, we have a strong production capacity that has been formed in the past few decades and can provide products in a short period of time; fourth, in terms of policy, the central and local governments have created really good conditions for the development of export enterprises.

"China's overcapacity theory" is a false proposition, and the competitiveness of China's goods depends on innovation and quality

Recently, some politicians and media in the United States and the West have joined forces to hype up the so-called "theory of China's overcapacity", and three experts said that the "theory of China's overcapacity" is a false proposition. Zhang Yansheng said that the rapid growth of new energy vehicles is a bright spot in China's process of promoting the high-quality development of foreign trade and manufacturing. To a large extent, the so-called "China's overcapacity theory" of some Western politicians wants to shift the responsibility for global economic imbalance and rebalancing to China.

Wei Jianguo said that the so-called "theory of China's overcapacity" reflects the rapid development of China's new energy industry has increased the anxiety of some people in the West, which is not only to "throw the blame" for their own backwardness and inaction, but also to curb China's scientific and technological development and industrial upgrading.

In the context of the sluggish recovery of the world economy and the overall downturn in global trade, China's new energy vehicles and other products are selling well in many Western markets, Yao Jingyuan believes that the most fundamental reason lies in the continuous technological innovation of China's new energy industry, the perfect production and supply chain system and high labor productivity, from the production cost, technical content, brand building, Chinese products have very strong competitiveness, Yao Jingyuan said that the market economy is the process of continuous balance between supply and demand, with the so-called "dumping" and "overcapacity" To express it is contrary to the principles of economics.

The consumer market has been recovering steadily and there are many bright spots

Changes in the consumer market are a relatively good area in the middle of the economic operation in the first quarter, and there are many bright spots. In the first quarter, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.7% year-on-year. Consumption contributed 73.7% to GDP growth, playing an important supporting role in economic growth.

Wei Jianguo said that specifically, the highlights of consumption in the first quarter are mainly reflected in the following three aspects: First, the rapid growth of service consumption. In the first quarter, the added value of the service industry increased by 5.0% year-on-year. Among them, the added value of information transmission, software and information technology services, leasing and business services, transportation, warehousing and postal services, accommodation and catering, and wholesale and retail trade increased by 13.7 percent, 10.8 percent, 7.3 percent, 7.3 percent, and 6.0 percent respectively, indicating that our overall consumption has shown a rapid development trend.

In the first quarter, the total retail sales of consumer goods 120327 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.7%. In terms of the location of business units, the retail sales of urban consumer goods were 10,428 billion yuan, up by 4.6 percent, and the retail sales of rural consumer goods were 1,604.7 billion yuan, up by 5.2 percent. The growth rate of rural consumption has exceeded that of urban consumption, indicating that a series of policies conducive to rural consumption have been implemented before, and rural areas will be a huge market in the future.

Third, residents' consumption of upgraded consumption continued to improve. Judging from the overall consumption data, we have done a better job when it comes to people's lives. In the first quarter, the catering revenue was 1,344.5 billion yuan, an increase of 10.8 percent, the sales of some upgraded commodities increased rapidly, and the retail sales of sports and entertainment goods and communication equipment of units above designated size increased by 14.2 percent and 13.2 percent respectively. At present, all localities are vigorously improving the market environment and developing new consumption scenarios such as cultural tourism, health, and elderly care, which are all promoting our consumption. Our consumption data shows not only volume growth, but also new development tracks and patterns.

Equipment renewal and trade-in will leverage the trillion-dollar domestic demand market

A few days ago, the State Council issued the "Action Plan for Promoting Large-scale Equipment Renewal and Trade-in of Consumer Goods", and what are the main considerations for implementing large-scale equipment renewal and trade-in of consumer goods? How will it help economic development? Yao Jingyuan said that this strategic deployment is very important. From a practical point of view, the demand for equipment renewal in the mainland is very large, and the preliminary estimate will be a huge market with an annual scale of more than 5 trillion yuan, which is a very important investment space. On the one hand, large-scale equipment renewal can stimulate the economy, and at the same time, it can make our entire country's equipment level a higher platform, and lay the foundation for us to achieve the second centenary goal and build a modern and powerful country.

"The implementation of large-scale equipment renewal and trade-in of consumer goods is of great significance to medium-term structural adjustment and long-term high-quality economic development. Zhang Yansheng said that large-scale equipment renewal will create a huge market of more than 5 trillion yuan every year, and in terms of trade-in of consumer goods, the replacement of automobiles and home appliances can also create a trillion-scale consumer market demand. The combination of the two is an important measure to coordinate investment and consumption and tap the potential of domestic demand, and plays a huge role in China's economic transformation to high-quality development.

Curator: Liu Juan

Producer: Tang Xinyi

Executive planner: Wang Yunxia

Editor: Sun Hui and Zhou Jiamiao

Post-production: Qiu Bingchen, Yao Yuan, Zhu Shaojie, Tian Zeyang

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