Brokers conspire to be "antifragile", and the adjustment has been completed?

Author | Xie Xiaobai

Recently, we are all experiencing some difficulties, which often come from the unconscious projection of reality, such as:

I took a taxi home from the company last night, and I didn't wait for the car to come, but I waited for the driver to make an angry phone call, and when I came up, I scolded me:

Have you figured out where you stand?

01

Today's market has regained its vitality, and the various groups have begun to fill the atmosphere with banter again.

Especially thinking that in the past two days, brokerages have begun to study the "Anti-fragile Strategy of Micro-cap Stocks", how to say?

A friend of mine said at the scene that observing the faces of these young people, the nervous expressions were highly consistent with the gamblers waiting for the opening of baccarat in the Macau casino.

In fact, the busiest thing these days is that all kinds of sell-side institutions are rushing to push a large number of collections of wrongly killed stocks when the new regulations are clarified......

I understand the surging anxiety of sellers, but from the perspective of ordinary investors, after the new rules, the choice is actually very limited:

Either choose the company that pays dividends, or choose to divest.

The reason is not complicated, what do we use as individuals to fight against the trend?

From the perspective of large funds, there is also no reason to choose this kind of small and micro stocks that are wrongly killed.

On the one hand, as the April conference approaches, the employment opportunities of the village rescue team will increase, and the instability of the market will most likely not have much impact on the index.

So, is the big money going to do the index, or is it going to take the risk of buying the bottom to make returns?

On the other hand, is the so-called wrongful killing, really wrongful killing?

We can make a comparison, just look for a small cap A-share stock, and soon you can find a similar target in Hong Kong stocks, with better performance and a price that is more than 50% undervalued than the price of A-shares.

From this point of view, yesterday's 1,000-share fall limit, and today's tepid small-cap stocks, in fact, the direction in this has been very clear:

Figure out where you are – stay away from all junk stocks, underperforming stocks, after all, normal people don't go near trash cans unless necessary.

02

You may ask, if there is a lot of garbage in small-cap stocks, there is no such thing in large-cap stocks?

By the way, I heard a gossip this morning:

It is said that in order to avoid this wave of large-scale layoffs in the public offering circle, the female employees of a public fund company in Beijing have become pregnant......

Friends laughed and said that this aligned the granularity of Ali's work?

But on the contrary, it shows that the brokerage is facing liquidation pressure, and the inspection team has begun to move again.

Is it such a coincidence?

There is no doubt that a new round of purge is advancing, so the process of the new regulations is likely to advance quickly.

At this time, the garbage in large-cap stocks, do you think it can escape the next baptism of the market?

I don't think so.

For example, I am very worried about the female employees of the mutual fund company now, "Is it too late to get pregnant now?"

03

In fact, I think it's a great thing if the new rules stick to it.

It can not only promote the gathering of funds on a more valuable track and focus on good companies, but also a process to promote the capital market to get on the right track.

After all, it was too far away from the normal valuation before.

Note, however, that such reforms are not without their drawbacks.

There is no other reason, how to punish a company that speculates on small speculation and falsifies financial reports, and how to compensate investors for their losses...... It's still blank.

As ordinary investors, we are powerless in the face of the trend, all we can do is:

Find your place and try not to be a cost.

Specifically, when choosing investment targets, you should carefully screen (in fact, you can not look at) small and micro cap stocks, and avoid those targets that may be eliminated (no dividends, dividends are not as expected).

04

Finally, let's talk about the heavier information.

Information 1.A visit from the German Chancellor.

Combined with the media coverage, I think this is an attempt by Germany to construct a balance, although it may be fragile.

Specifically, he spoke highly of our new energy industry.

He said that our export of electric vehicles, lithium batteries, photovoltaic products, etc., not only enriched global supply, alleviated global inflationary pressure, but also made great contributions to the global response to climate change and green and low-carbon transformation.

He also called on both sides to be vigilant against the rise of protectionism.

This is obviously good news, and it represents a window for us in the European market...... After all, judging from the export data, Europe has the largest number of cuts, so the future increase will also be considerable.

At the same time, this means that Japanese cars are facing a full-scale shock.

But note that while he is trying to push for economic ties with us, he also warns of the need to curb the influx of cheap goods into Europe, while also expressing concern about China's support for Russia.

To put it bluntly, this is to draw the bottom line "you can sell cars, and you can also ...... photovoltaics But daily necessities are still forgotten, to give some face, we also need employment. ”

We will find that as the dollar strengthens again, the world's major economies need to be left and right, after all, if anyone bursts, it will not be fun.

News 2.Fitch adjusts the credit ratings of the six major banks to "negative"

In fact, it is not surprising that my friend always said that "how crazy it is when you go to leverage, how painful it is to go to leverage".

I responded, "But the trouble is that the people who are leveraged and the people who are deleveraged are often not ...... waves"

"As long as they run fast, Wuzhi Mountain can't hit them......"

From this perspective, is it unexpected to see that the credit rating of the six major banks is negative?

When trust begins to disintegrate and the economic order begins to collapse, credit is a luxury.

When forcing the old people to change money, let the common people borrow money has become the main business of the bank......

I think the trouble is just beginning...... This will have a much bigger impact on the market than we thought.

Note, however, that Fitch's move should have been expected and has been largely priced in by the market, as they have already downgraded their bonds.

epilogue

Actually, there is no need to be too pessimistic, the economic data shows that it is OK, although I don't know why GDP can reach the level of 5.3%, but I think that the upcoming meeting, macro data, and from the perspective of confidence, will not allow it to continue to fall.

After all, M2 has exceeded 300 trillion, and there is no shortage of money.

Based on this, we completed the increase at the end of yesterday:

But I still want to say that although this round of market correction is drastic, it is also part of the market cycle, and for those of us who are involved in the game, we can only accept it.

In particular, we should pay attention to maintaining rationality and objectivity, accepting trends, and maintaining discipline.

Even if you swim in a glass tank, you must have the courage to ride the wind and waves.