奈雪的茶，三年跌没262亿

The tea drink track is becoming more and more "rolled".

In the past, the Internet gradually became ineffective, and the valuation of tea brands in the capital market became more and more reasonable. However, for tea brands, their competition has entered a white-hot stage, and expanding scale and increasing revenue has become the ultimate appeal of many tea brands.

In the past year, whether it is a tea brand or a coffee brand, it has been a year of "hurricane". But unfortunately, the market's consideration of tea brands has begun to transition from scale to profitability.

This also indicates that the era of scale is becoming a thing of the past.

Recently, Nai Xue's tea, the "first share of tea drinks", released its 2023 financial report, which shows that the company's revenue in 2023 will be 5.164 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.3%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 13 million yuan, and the adjusted net profit will be 21 million yuan, turning from a loss to a profit year-on-year.

For the first earnings report, the market did not buy it.

After the earnings report was released, Nayuki's tea stock price fell 12.79% the next day.

It is worth noting that the company's share price has not stopped falling, and under the continuous decline, the company's market value is only 4.099 billion Hong Kong dollars, and has hit a record low.

If calculated from the highest level, Nai Xue's decline has exceeded 85%, and its market value has evaporated by more than 28.4 billion Hong Kong dollars, or about 26.2 billion yuan.

So, why didn't the market buy this financial report?

Is it the right thing for a tea brand to run blindfolded?

Under the scale, how can enterprises ensure profitability?

The "bubble" brought out by capital

As early as four years ago, with the blessing of the Internet model, new tea drinks and new consumption became the hottest tracks. The market value of Bubble Mart exceeded 100 billion Hong Kong dollars on the first day of listing, and the market value of Perfect Diary exceeded 12.2 billion US dollars on the first day of listing, and at that time, even the valuation of Yuanqi Forest was close to 30 billion yuan.

According to data, in 2020, tea brands had a total of 18 financings, with a total disclosed amount of 1.743 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 700%.

Under the tuyere, the speed of tea brands opening stores is rapid and fast, and with the blessing of capital, burning money for traffic has become a routine operation. At that time, a number of milk tea brands such as Nai Xue's tea, Hey Tea, Mixue Bingcheng, and Chayan Yuese all spread the news of IPOs.

At the end of June 2021, Nai Xue's tea was the first to land on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and became the "first share of tea drinks", thus entering a new stage of expansion of the tea beverage brand; in July of the same year, Heytea completed a financing of 500 million US dollars, with a valuation of nearly 60 billion yuan, setting a new valuation record for new tea drinks in China......

According to incomplete statistics, in 2021, China's tea industry completed a total of 59 financings, involving more than 15 billion yuan, with participants including Temasek, Sequoia China, UBS, Hillhouse and other leading institutions.

The ever-increasing pace and increasing competition have led to a skyrocketing price for these tea brands.

According to Nai Xue's prospectus, in the first three quarters of 2020, the average sales price of Nai Xue's tea per order reached 43.3 yuan, while the average selling price per order in China's tea industry was about 35 yuan, so Nai Xue was once evaluated by netizens as "Moutai in milk tea".

Unfortunately, this wave of price increases did not last long.

The decline in sales and volume of single stores soon made the tea brand bow to reality, and under the demonstration of price reduction of Heytea and Naixue, the price of single products in the tea industry has dropped again and again, and the price of some single products has even been cut in half.

Feedback in the capital market, "the first share of tea" Nai Xue suffered, and on the first day of listing, Nai Xue's tea was broken. Since then, its stock price has been declining.

At the beginning of 2022, the winter of the tea industry is quietly coming, and closing stores and laying off employees has become a routine operation.

Although Heytea later refuted the rumors, the slowdown in expansion has become an indisputable fact. Obviously, when Nai Xue's bubble burst in Hong Kong stocks, many capitals began to gradually choose to reduce investment or exit. Tea brands also have no choice but to hit the capital market in the face of a market downturn because of the pressure of expansion.

It is worth noting that the tea industry is already a "red sea".

The price war is "hard to rest"

Judging from the current situation of the tea market, opening up to joining, fighting the quantity and scale have become the new rules of the tea track.

Under the scale, tea brands are becoming more and more popular, but no tea brand dares to stop the pace of expansion.

According to the prospectus disclosed by Chabaidao, by the end of 2023, Chabaidao has opened 7,801 stores, and its relevant person in charge has also said that it will hit the scale of 10,000 stores in 2024.

At scale, profitability is becoming more and more important, and companies don't seem to be aware of the consequences of marginal benefits.

According to iiMedia Consulting data, in 2023, the market size of new tea drinks in mainland China will be 333.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.5%, and it is expected that the market size growth rate will further decrease to single digits in the next few years.

In other words, when scale is no longer king, the current model of tea companies will be further impacted in the future, which also indicates that price wars are almost inevitable.

The accelerated "involution" of the industry, for Nai Xue's tea, following the industry is almost a must. Therefore, since late July 2023, Naixue's tea has been open to franchise and expanded to the third and fourth tier sinking markets. According to Naixue's tea financial report data, it opened a total of 81 franchise stores last year, but as of February this year, the number of its franchise stores reached 200.

At Naixue's performance briefing, Naixue's management said that it would open 2,000 to 3,000 franchise stores in the next two to three years. Of course, the market did not buy Naixue's large-scale store opening plan.

On the contrary, it has fallen further, so what is the point of concern for the market?

Looking through the financial report, we found that the reason why Naixue turned losses into profits in 2023 is mainly the result of reducing costs and increasing efficiency, and its operating data is still in a state of decline in volume and price.

According to the financial report, in the past year, the average sales per order of Naixue decreased from 34.3 yuan in 2022 to 29.6 yuan in 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 13.7%, and the average daily order volume of each tea shop decreased from 348.2 orders in 2022 to 344.3 orders in 2023.

Zhu Danpeng, an analyst of China's food industry, said that Nai Xue's tea got rid of losses last year may be a phased result. With the further intensification of market competition and the acceleration of the IPO process of other new tea brands, Nai Xue's tea will be squeezed even more in the future market.

Kanjian Finance believes that the deeper dilemma faced by new tea brands such as Naixue, Hey Tea, and Chayan Yuese is that the operating cost has increased rapidly with the expansion of offline stores, but the offline traffic has not been able to achieve the same proportion of growth. And with the IPO of tea Baidao, Mixue Bingcheng and other enterprises, the involution of the industry will be further intensified, and the price war is almost inevitable. At that time, if the profitability of tea enterprises is low, then the possibility of being eliminated will be greatly increased.