On April 16, the National Bureau of Statistics released a number of economic data, the most important of which were GDP and per capita disposable income in the first quarter.
In terms of GDP, China achieved 29.63 trillion yuan from January to March 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%, and the GDP for the whole of last year was 126.06 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%;
Why mention GDP and per capita disposable income for the first quarter of this year and the whole of last year? Because these two economic data are closely related to the upcoming pension adjustment in 2024.
Everyone should remember the "grand occasion" of the first few years when the mainland pension just rose, and the annual increase was very high, and it could even reach a double-digit increase in individual years. The reason for this is that in addition to allowing the lower pension level to enter a relatively stable level as soon as possible, the high economic and income growth rate more than 10 years ago has played a vital role.
In 2020, the national pension will rise by an average of 5%, 4.5% in 2021, 4% in 2022, and 3.8% in 2023.
The GDP growth rate of 5.3% and the per capita disposable income growth rate of 6.2% are two important data in the first quarter of this year, which will play a very important reference role in the formulation of the pension adjustment plan by the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security and the Ministry of Finance in 2024.
If the pension adjustment ratio is in accordance with the standard of the mainland's per capita income rise, then the adjustment will be more than 6%, because whether it is last year or the first quarter of this year, the per capita disposable income of the national residents is more than 6%, this data is likely to continue to maintain, and the pension will rise with the average income of the people of the country, and the increase is not much more reasonable.
However, there is another factor to consider in determining the proportion of pension increases - price fluctuations, that is, inflation. One of the main purposes of increasing the pension every year is to keep the money received by retirees from depreciating and their purchasing power from decreasing. Imagine, assuming that the pension does not grow and prices rise every year, then the total amount of goods bought by the same amount of pension will inevitably become less and less, and the material quality of life of retirees will decline. In order to avoid this, pensions must be raised annually in line with price fluctuations.
The price data released by the National Bureau of Statistics that is closely related to the lives of ordinary people is the CPI.
The data shows that the CPI edged up by 0.2% last year in 2023, and the CPI in the first quarter of this year was basically the same as the same period last year, without much change. The fact that prices have not risen much is a negative factor for pension adjustment, and it has also basically determined that the average pension adjustment ratio in 2024 is not only impossible to rise by more than 6% like per capita income, but also cannot reach 5%. Of course, it is impossible not to rise at all.
Combined with GDP, per capita income, CPI, and the growth rate of previous years, it is likely to be between 3.5% and 3.8%, and it is quite good to maintain the same 3.8% as last year.
The pension adjustment notices jointly issued by the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security and the Ministry of Finance in 2022 and 2023 were both announced in May, so the possibility of 2024 being released next month is extremely high, and the mystery of the average increase ratio will be revealed at that time.
It should be reminded that even if the average adjustment ratio is announced, it does not mean that the increase in the individual's pension can be calculated. "Average" is the sum of all increases divided by the total number of retirees, and your actual adjustment can be higher or lower than the average. The specific adjustment is related to many factors such as the increase in the fixed amount in the region, the cumulative number of years of payment, the current monthly pension amount, age, and whether to retire in remote and difficult areas.
Retirees with a higher percentage of pension growth tend to have two characteristics.
One is that they are older. In the pension adjustment plan, the elderly retirees will be added separately, and generally over 70 years old can get the increase in the old age tilt, and the older the age, the more this increase.
Second, the amount of personal pension is compared with the average level of the region. If you are now receiving a higher pension than the average in your area, then the increase is lower, and vice versa.
Please note that it is compared to the average for your region, not to other regions or to the whole country. For example, Zhang San, a retiree from Anhui, is at a higher level than most of the surrounding retirees, and Li Si, a retiree from Shanghai, is less than most of the surrounding retirees.
The following table is the average pension data of 31 places in the country in 2023 compiled by netizens, which is not necessarily accurate but has a certain reference.
Finally, I hope you maintain a peaceful mind, whether the pension increases more or less is not something you can change, you feel that it is not worth sulking if you rise less. For retirees, physical health is the most important, to put it mildly, a few more years of life, a few more years of pension can offset the increase in pension for more than ten or even decades.