To pay attention to the game between China and the Philippines in the waters of Ren'ai Jiao in the South China Sea, we cannot but pay attention to the historic summit held by the United States, Japan and the Philippines on the South China Sea issue, which just concluded a few days ago. It was at this meeting that Biden made a rare remark to China: the "U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty" applies to the Philippine beached warship "Sierra Madre". What does this mean? You seem to be trying to draw a "red line" for China, and once China starts attacking the broken Philippine ship, the US military will have the obligation to intervene. It should be noted that this is not the first time that the US has intervened in the dispute between China and the Philippines by force to put pressure on China. The US official claimed that the US side has made clear to the Chinese side its attitude on the dialogue mechanism between China and the United States. The U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty's defense commitments cover Philippine government vessels and related personnel, including, of course, the Sierra Madre. The exact words of the US side are that China needs to evaluate its strategy, otherwise there is a serious risk of conflict between China and the United States.
In the face of the strong support of the United States, Marcos Jr. did not dare to be arrogant this time. He said he would do everything possible to talk to mainland leaders to avoid more collisions with ships and the use of water cannons in the South China Sea. Philippine Ambassador to the United States Romualdes said that the United States and the Philippines hope that the joint defense treaty will never be activated, but will not hesitate if necessary. This raises the question: Is the Biden administration's claim that the scope of the US-Philippine mutual defense treaty covers the broken ship on Ren'ai Jiao in the Philippines really drawing a red line for China? Of course, it cannot be understood in this way. In fact, this may be a concrete embodiment of Biden's comprehensive deterrence strategy against China. The United States uses the Philippines to provoke China in the South China Sea, mainly to create a competitive situation that is more favorable to itself, but it does not mean that it wants to fight with China. However, there is no clear definition as to whether the US-Philippines mutual defense treaty covers the Sierra Madre and Ren'ai Jiao and Scarborough Shoal, where China and the Philippines have sovereignty disputes. The military alliance agreement signed by the United States and the Philippines is really explicitly aimed at the invasion of foreign forces into the Philippine mainland, and it will do nothing for China.
It can be seen that the United States is still vague about whether or not to intervene militarily in the waters of Ren'ai Jiao and Scarborough Shoal. In judging US foreign policy, we must look at the provisions stipulated by law, not by the verbal expression of US officials and military personnel. You can also understand it this way, unless the agreement signed between the United States and the Philippines clearly states that the military alliance obligations of the two sides cover the sovereignty dispute between China and the Philippines, it doesn't matter what Biden says. At present, the main game between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea is controlled only at the coast guard level, and China has no plans to dismantle the wrecked ship of Sierra Madre. Even if China acts, it will be enough for us to deploy the coast guard. Even if the Philippines escalates the conflict to the military level, the Chinese navy will defend its own sovereign rights and interests, and the United States will look at the question of whether to intervene based on its position of strength.
At this time, the strength of the U.S. military is the key to deciding whether to intervene. With the rapid rise of China's naval power, the South China Sea has become China's real sphere of influence, and the U.S. Navy has nothing but a beating here. It can be seen that the United States should not draw a red line for China on the issue of the South China Sea dispute between China and the Philippines at all, because drawing a red line is tantamount to clarifying the risks and expectations of a military conflict between the United States and China, and the consequences of such a major power conflict are unbearable for the US military. In other words, the drawing of red lines can only become a reality through war or other powerful practical actions. For example, during the Korean War, China drew 38 lines for the US military, and the US military refused to accept it, so it spoke on the battlefield. During the Vietnam War, China once again drew a red line for the United States, the 17th parallel, and the Americans honestly obeyed it.
In short, regarding the game between the parties in the South China Sea, it is military strength that really determines the direction of the situation, not Biden's cannon, let alone the clamor and threats of Max Jr. From this point of view, the red line drawn by the Chinese is the real red line, such as the inability of the Philippines to deliver building materials to the Sierra Madre on the beach, which proved to be a red line. In order to protect this red line, we have already used water cannons, and we will not rule out the use of artillery and missiles in the future.