Today refreshes the history of 2024, but in the big rise of the index, there has been a tragedy of more than 4,000 companies falling and more than 300 falling limits, the index laughs in the bull market, and individual stocks moaning in the bear market, this non-bull and non-bear trend is very painful.
The high-dividend weighted sectors represented by the two barrels of oil and the four major banks led the index to rise sharply, and despite the twists and turns in the intraday, the index finally achieved a perfect rise. The small and micro cap stocks are red-eyed, and the micro cap stock index has a maximum intraday decline of more than 10%, and individual stocks can be imagined.
To be honest, if it weren't for the once-in-a-decade blockbuster over the weekend, there wouldn't be too much of a surprise in today's trend. After all, the powder keg in the Middle East was ignited again this weekend, and A-shares have always had the habit of paying for others. It's just that this account is all counted on the head of the small ticket, and the big ticket is safe and sound.
Of course, there is a reason for the small ticket to fall, not a whim of funds. The new "National Nine Articles" on the mandatory dividend standards of listed companies were taken out of context by some people, creating panic that more than 1,000 companies would be ST, which triggered panic in the market and caused small-cap stocks to fall.
Of course, in my opinion, the new dividend policy is just the fuse of the collapse of small-cap stocks, and the real crisis is the excessive speculation of small-cap stocks in recent years, and in the long run, the micro-cap stock index has risen sharply for five consecutive years, with a total increase of more than five times, and it has risen by nearly 50% last year alone! This is the most bullish index of A-shares. There is always a day when Mr. Nan Guo can't get mixed up, and only performance is the eternal value of this market.
Although the sharp decline in micro-cap stocks is not unjust at all, it is really unreasonable to be killed regardless of the indiscriminate situation. This is obviously a bit excessive, of course, this is more of an emotional catharsis, but after the mood stabilizes, the stocks that were wrongly killed will be picked up by the market again. Not all large-cap stocks are performing well, and not all small-cap stocks are performing poorly. Generalizations are clearly unreasonable.
To be honest, this short-term decline is somewhat irrational, and I am not complaining about the decline of small and micro cap stocks, but I am just worried about the extreme behavior of the market. Although it is the rise of small and micro cap stocks that can drive market sentiment. But from an objective and rational point of view, we should be happy about this trend of the market, because in any mature market, the tickets with good performance are sought after, and junk stocks are marginalized! This is the case with US stocks, where 80 percent of the funds flow to 20 percent of the stocks, and 20 percent of the stocks contribute 80 percent of the index's gains. We have seen a big bull market in stocks for more than ten years, but in fact, it is only a big bull market for a few individual stocks.
In front of investors is a difficult choice, whether to invest in the price or focus on the hype of the theme, in fact, in my opinion, the two are not contradictory. No matter what you invest, the main line of performance can not be lost, not that the theme of speculation does not want performance, we resolutely oppose those pure theme speculation that is detached from performance, but often pure theme speculation has the opportunity to get rich in the short term, so it will still attract funds to be happy. The key is that some of them are too deep into the play, and they never look at it when they are low, and once they rise high, they chase it desperately, and finally pay a painful price.
The change of style is long-term, not overnight, and don't think that the next big fall will continue because of the sharp decline in short-term small and micro stocks. Don't go to extremes. Don't knock over a boatload of people with a single shot. If this market is going to sacrifice more than 3,000 small-cap stocks in exchange for the glory of large-cap stocks, then how can such a market play, of course, there will be this possibility in the short term, and the long-term will still be a repeated rotation of styles. If it was a one-size-fits-all approach, what did you want at the beginning, such as the Growth Enterprise Market, the Science and Technology Innovation Board, and the Beijing Stock Exchange? There's no need to scare yourself.
In the short term, we will continue to hold shares firmly, believe in the power of the policy, and will be deeply set, at this time we must not cut the meat, but no matter when, only with the performance of the support of the stock, the heart is more steady, if you hold junk stocks, even if the bull market is coming, it may be difficult to make people feel at ease.
Finally, let's take a look at what is the big news in the market tonight, and what impact will it have on the market tomorrow?
1. The People's Bank of China held the 2024 Financial Stability Work Conference. After reading the two key sentences, one is to prevent and defuse financial risks, which is the fundamental task of financial work; and the other is that the mainland's financial system is generally sound and financial risks are generally converging.
This is a regular meeting, this year's focus is on risk prevention, and the biggest requirement above is that there is no systemic risk and establish a bottom line thinking. It must be stable, there is no problem, as for whether it will rise or not, I don't know, for shareholders and friends, I just want to know when the Financial Stability Law will come out, and there is still a play in the leveling fund!
2. Important data will be released soon! The economic growth rate in the first quarter is expected to exceed 5%
The National Bureau of Statistics will release the economic operation data for the first quarter on Tuesday (April 16), including GDP, industrial added value, fixed asset investment, consumption and other data. Judging from leading indicators and high-frequency monitoring data, the main economic indicators will still maintain a steady recovery trend, and the economic growth rate in the first quarter is expected to exceed 5%.
Tuesday is critical, if the data exceeds expectations, the weight will form a synergy, driving the theme to rebound together, and now the market needs a big economic stimulus. Just like the previously released manufacturing PMI data in March exceeded expectations, triggering a collective surge in weights, which led to a rebound in the market.
The market rebound needs the right time, the right place, people and indispensable people, the new "national nine" as a medium and long-term blockbuster positive, if the short-term blockbuster positive stimulus, the long-term and short-term positive superposition will give rise to the rebound of the market.
So tomorrow we will focus on the important data.
In March and April, MLF continued the sequel of "volume shrinkage and price parity" Industry: It is unlikely that interest rates will be cut in the short term
Yesterday it was emphasized that today there will be the release of the April MLF, which will determine the next monetary policy.
Today, the central bank carried out a 100 billion yuan one-year medium-term lending facility operation (MLF), because 170 billion yuan of MLF expired this month, and a net withdrawal of 70 billion yuan. After 15 months of continuous net investment, the central bank has changed its past style and has been shrinking its volume for two consecutive months, which also shows that the current banking system has abundant liquidity.
The expectation of interest rate cut was disappointed, due to the abundant liquidity in the banking system, the possibility of RRR cut is not large, financing in March was less than expected, and imports and exports in March were less than expected. But the money is already very loose. It's time to focus on tomorrow's financial data. In fact, there is no shortage of money in this market, what is lacking is the money-making effect, what is lacking is confidence, if there is no money-making effect, no matter how loose the currency is, the money will lie in the bank, and it will not enter the stock market at all. So don't always worry about the liquidity of the market.