Morning to see what is called the vagaries of A-shares, long and short intertwined A-shares, the morning quickly smashed through the psychological mark of 3000 points, but the bulls with a thunderous momentum to drive the index up, but unfortunately many stocks are not so lucky, the weight and the theme of the opposite, the weight leads the index to rebound, the theme leads the stock to fall, the index has a bull market impulse, but the stock shows the bleakness of the bear market. Only grow bones but not meat, make an index and lose money, but it is a pity that it takes ten years to meet the "National Nine".
We are amazed at the capriciousness of the index, but we are so calm in our hearts, we firmly believe that the "national nine" for us to illuminate the road of the bull market, and also fully realize the helplessness of the current market, the long-term positive and short-term negative fierce game, although the index is slightly better, but individual stocks are completely defeated.
When the bullish sentiment is highly consistent, when most people are full of confidence and ready to do a big job, when the whole market is singing good news, the trend of the market will often give investors a blow to the head, and it is likely that a basin of cold water will come down from the beginning, of course, we are not sure that the short-term trend will disappoint everyone, but at least there is such a concern in our hearts, so that we become cautious, when this psychology begins to spread, the market will naturally not rise. Naturally, we can understand the fact that today's market only rises in the index and does not rise in individual stocks. The index is strong but thin, as we expected yesterday, mainly based on the recent market risk aversion continues to rise, which leads to a sharp rise in resource stocks represented by commodities, especially coal, oil will drive the index up, and at the same time subject to the strict requirements of the Securities Regulatory Commission's dividends, many small-cap stocks are ST because of this, although not as serious as more than 1,000 ST, but it will indeed bring a lot of small-cap stocks with a cap, so it is a high probability that small-cap stocks are frightened and fall sharply, which will lead to the lack of market money-making effect。 Sure enough, as we expected, the only mistake was that gold stocks did not rise as expected today, but fell en masse. It is not in line with other resource stocks.
The market seems to be chaotic and confusing. But a careful analysis shows the traces. It is more meaningful to predict the trend of the sector than to predict the rise and fall of the index, and the predicted sector context is relatively simple, but it is more practical.
In the process of the big ups and downs of the index this morning, we saw that foreign investors were unusually determined to increase their holdings sharply, although the index ushered in a bright future, but unfortunately most of the stocks suffered heavy casualties. But in any case, with the shrewdness of foreign capital, it has begun to change the previous outflow and turn to a large buying, does it mean that short-term opportunities are coming?
1. The reason why the morning market broke through 3,000 points is completely the ghost of domestic capital, why did domestic capital smash the market, is it not that domestic capital is not interested in the new "National Nine Articles"?
This weekend, the market blew up the new "National Nine Articles", and one side thought it was a big benefit, and the retail investors who listened to it were full of confidence and wanted to rush into it immediately. If I put aside the content of the "National Nine Articles" this time, and briefly review the historical trend after the introduction of the first two "National Nine Articles", it is obvious that they have experienced a long period of decline and then achieved the final long rise, especially after the introduction of 2004, and only around 2006 did there be signs of a bull market. Obviously, it is bitter first and then sweet, and the market will not rise if you don't toss you to death. At the same time, I have repeatedly stressed that it cannot be said that it will rain as soon as there is thunder.
There are now different from the past, in 2004 there were 1,350 stocks in the two cities, in 2014 there were 2,650 stocks in the two cities, and by 2024, there are 5,360 stocks at present, the volume of the market is completely different, in 2004 and 2014 after the "National Nine Articles", the market started a comprehensive cattle is relatively easy, and the economic growth rate is very high, and now, the economic growth rate has declined sharply, the absolute number of individual stocks is very large, it is not easy to achieve a comprehensive cattle, it is good to achieve a structural cattle. Therefore, our expectations should not be too high, and we should not treat a long-term positive as a short-term benefit. At the same time, the bull market is a marathon, not a 100-meter sprint, with this basic judgment, you will look at the "national nine" with a normal heart. He is a beacon of confidence for us to move towards a bull market.
The new "National Nine Measures" focus on strengthening supervision, preventing risks, and developing with high quality.
To be honest, strengthening supervision is a strong guarantee for the long-term healthy development of the capital market, but it may not be a good thing for institutions. Let's take the supervision of the financing side as an example, if there is no strong supervision, can several leading brokerages be filed, will the brokerage take the initiative to revoke the IPO, and will the pace of the IPO be slowed down as a whole, which is undoubtedly a smashing of the brokerage's job, and the brokerage is naturally unhappy. There is also the strengthening of quantitative supervision, etc., most of which are aimed at institutions, which will inevitably affect the enthusiasm of institutions. This objectively leads to the outflow of institutional funds, and only after breaking the original market model and establishing a new model over time will the market slowly enter the pattern of a bull market.
Why is the feeling of rising stock Z today?
First, I made it very clear over the weekend that more than 1,000 stocks were circulated in the market being ST, which is obviously creating a new panic. While it is unlikely that there will be so many STs, the fear that small-cap stocks will ST is at risk.
Second, the fire sees the real gold, and the wind knows the grass. It is still a large-cap stock, and the high-performing stocks can stand the test of the market. Some small-cap stocks are also inevitably dragged down, which is also a reminder to such an iron rooster and miser.
In the face of market trends, we can truly enhance our understanding of the new "National Nine Articles", so as not to lose sight of Mount Tai. We must look at the problem objectively, there is still room for a pullback in some small-cap stocks in the short term, and in the future, we must abandon the garbage varieties that have no performance support.
Although the short-term impact on the market, but the medium-term must be good, which belongs to scraping bones to cure poison, cure diseases and save people, it is very necessary. Only when the market environment is purified and the stumbling blocks to the healthy development of the market are cleared, can the market move towards a bull market with a firm pace.
2. Domestic capital continues to smash the market, and foreign capital is firmly at the bottom, is the adjustment in place?
The weight led the rise, and the theme fell sharply. Obviously, the weight is trying to protect the disk, and the weight of the disk conceals the true performance of individual stocks. The market has formed a severely differentiated and fragmented trend, and the feeling of rising out of stock Z has risen. This was unexpected.
The power of disk protection comes from the national team, the four major banks and the four major ETFs of the national team. The intention of the national team to maintain the index is very obvious, as long as he does not let go, the index will naturally not fall. Don't worry about the index falling sharply. Today's weights are almost one-sided. Next, it is difficult to form such a consensus expectation, and now the biggest concern is securities, the reason why securities rose sharply today is more of an over-falling rebound, once the rebound is over, it is likely to fall into a sideways shock, but it is difficult to pull up. Coal, oil and other resource sectors will be subject to changes in the external situation. In general, it is difficult for the weights to form a collective pull up in the future, and the short-term changes in the index depend entirely on the performance of the weights. Next, the weight will be differentiated as a whole, easy to rise and difficult to fall, and once it breaks 3000 points, it will trigger the rescue of a certain team's funds, so the index does not have to worry about it.
Now the biggest worry is the performance of the theme, the premise of the market improvement is that the theme rises to bring money-making effect, the theme has been half-dead, and the market is unable to restore confidence. The new "National Nine Articles" involve some strictly supervised places, such as the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the Shanghai-Shenzhen-North Stock Exchange, which will definitely bring about the continuous flight of funds, so for small-cap stocks with poor performance, it is better to avoid them as much as possible. Those companies that have performance support and are very generous will definitely be the future of sweethearts.
In fact, when we look at the market, we look at the trend of funds, smart funds, and institutional funds, and they use their actions to point out the direction for the market. Whether foreign or domestic, they all like big white horses. Of course, for retail investors, it is necessary to choose the white horse breed that is trending upwards and has not risen much.
In any case, today is the first trading day after the landing of the "National Nine Articles", and yesterday everyone was still trying to predict how it would go today, and the result was really shocking. Although the four major stock indexes have finally achieved gains, it is difficult to be optimistic about today's trend in the short term, why?
First of all, the rise of the index is completely dependent on the weight, and the amount of energy has also exceeded one trillion, and the demand for funds is great for the weight rise, and it is normal to increase the volume, but from the perspective of the three major standards of our short-term optimism about the market, the amount of energy, the main line, and the money-making effect, the credibility of the single-day volume is not high, and there is no money-making effect. As a result, it is difficult to be optimistic in the short term.
Secondly, the impact of the new "National Nine Articles" on the market is long-term, and the pressure on small and medium-cap stocks is long-term, especially the stocks with poor performance and no dividend ability can only go to the edge of ST in the future. This trend is long-term, in the short term, it is inevitable that some stocks will be killed by mistake, but soon the stocks will rebound, the key to how many stocks in this part of the stock, the market has not yet had a unified understanding, and the short-term will inevitably fall into the sand.
Finally, the most foreign capital inflow in the morning is about 9 billion, but the whole day inflow of 8.1 billion, from the time-sharing chart, foreign capital basically did not move in the afternoon, foreign capital is just low absorption, once it rises will not move, after the short-term rise, foreign capital is not expected to have a big buying action.
There are two short-term trends, one is to continue to protect the disk, but the possibility of another big rise is reduced, and the theme falls sharply, and the other is to rest the weight, stabilize the index, and the theme begins to rebound. However, the risk of the index is still not removed. I'm leaning towards the second option.
3. What do you think about the market outlook:
Talking about this topic every day is nothing more than giving everyone the confidence to persevere, firmly optimistic about the spring market, and firmly optimistic about the future.
In the short term, the operation must be based on the main line of performance, if the performance is very indiscriminate, no dividends for many years, leave the market as soon as possible, and change the target. Only after the theme style prevails, can it be operated, and it will enter the market sharply, rise sharply and go out, and the small ups and downs will not move.