China Fund News reporter Fang Li Cao Wenjing
Recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission and other seven departments jointly issued the "Implementation Plan for Promoting the Renewal of Equipment in the Industrial Field" (hereinafter referred to as the "Implementation Plan"). The "Implementation Plan" deploys a total of 12 key tasks from four directions: advanced equipment renewal action, digital transformation action, green equipment promotion action, and intrinsic safety level improvement action.
What positive impact will the "Implementation Plan" have on the real economy, capital market, listed companies, etc.? Which investment opportunities are worth paying attention to? Which industries and subdivisions will be favorable? To this end, China Fund News reporter interviewed six public fund managers, they are Founder Fubon Fund Chief Equity Investment Officer, Administrative Head of Strategic Investment Department and Fund Manager Tang Ge, Deputy General Manager of Pengyang Fund and Chief Investment Officer of Equities Zhu Guoqing, Director of Equity Research Department of Everbright Prudential Fund, Cui Shutian, Manager of Everbright Made in China Fund, Huang Jichen, Assistant General Manager and Fund Manager of Bosera Fund Industry Research Department, Miao Mengyu, Fund Manager of Cathay Pacific Industrial Machine Tool ETF, and Zhang Xiaoguo, Fund Manager of Chuangjin Hexin Xingxuan Industrial Trend Fund.
The interviewed fund managers believe that the "Implementation Plan" is a specific landing plan in the industrial field of the "Action Plan for Promoting Large-scale Equipment Renewal and Consumer Goods Trade-in" issued by the State Council in the early stage, so that the implementation of equipment renewal in the industrial field is more rule-based. At the same time, we will promote the development of industrial equipment and industrial structure in the direction of a more high-end, intelligent, green and safe new industrialization.
The "Implementation Plan" has a positive impact on the macro economy, capital market, and listed companies, and many investors are optimistic about the related intelligent manufacturing equipment, advanced equipment, and old equipment and device updates.
Guide the direction of equipment renewal in the domestic industrial field
China Fund News: What are the positive significance of the "Implementation Plan" deploying 12 key tasks and seven departments issuing documents to promote the renewal of equipment in the industrial field?
Zhu Guoqing: Following the issuance of the Action Plan for Promoting Large-scale Equipment Renewal and Trade-in of Consumer Goods by the State Council on March 13, the Implementation Plan was issued on April 9, reflecting the great importance attached to the high-end, intelligent and green upgrading of industrial productivity.
First of all, the industrial sector has a lot of space and potential, and it can expand effective investment. According to data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the scale of equipment investment in the national industrial field will reach 4.4 trillion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%, accounting for more than 70% of the equipment investment in the whole society. If the scale of investment in industrial equipment increases by more than 25% in 2027 compared to 2023, effective investment will be expanded.
Secondly, the proportion of advanced production capacity continues to increase, helping the development of new quality productivity. By 2027, the penetration rate of digital R&D and design tools and the numerical control rate of key processes in industrial enterprises above designated size will exceed 90% and 75% respectively. The production equipment is upgraded by numerical control, the intelligent level of production and service equipment is improved, and the transformation of the industry into new quality productivity is accelerated.
Finally, it is conducive to promoting green and low-carbon development. In 2027, the energy efficiency of major energy-using equipment in key industries will basically reach the energy-saving level, and new equipment is usually more energy-efficient and efficient, which will help reduce energy consumption and pollutant emissions in the production process.
Huang Jichen: First of all, the "implementation plan" for the domestic industrial field of equipment renewal direction, the future industry trend will focus on the upgrading of high-end equipment and the replacement of backward and inefficient equipment, clear equipment in the process of digital and green importance.
Secondly, the "Implementation Plan" formulates quantitative indicators for equipment renewal, which is conducive to the effective promotion of digital transformation of industrial enterprises and the orderly exit of low-energy efficiency production capacity in relevant key industries, and ultimately improves the production efficiency and safety production level of industrial enterprises.
Finally, using equipment expenditure as the starting point to drive the economic cycle is not only a stimulus for the demand side, but also an optimization for the supply side. The growth of the equipment industry will also further boost the upstream raw materials, parts and components and supporting industries.
Zhang Xiaoguo: On the one hand, the "Implementation Plan" clarifies the overall requirements, specific tasks and related support and safeguard measures for the current round of equipment renewal in the industrial field; on the other hand, it clarifies the goal of upgrading the existing production capacity and further optimizing and adjusting the industrial structure by promoting the renewal of equipment in the current round of industrial fields, and through the renewal of advanced equipment, digital transformation, promotion of green equipment, and improvement of intrinsic safety level, the industrial equipment and industrial structure will move towards a more high-end, intelligent, green, Safe and industry-oriented development in the direction of new industrialization.
Miao Mengyu: The "Implementation Plan" specifically puts forward a more specific landing plan for equipment renewal in this field of industry, and gives guidance on the subdivided industries, key links, and action goals involved in the four major tasks of advanced equipment renewal, digital transformation, green equipment promotion, and intrinsic safety level improvement, and clarifies the form of fiscal and taxation, financial, and resource protection measures. The introduction of this policy is conducive to accelerating the implementation of industrial equipment renewal, achieving the goal of expanding effective investment and promoting production capacity upgrading.
It has a positive impact on the real economy and capital market
China Fund News: What positive impact will the Implementation Plan have on the real economy, capital market, listed companies, etc.?
Zhu Guoqing: First, the "Implementation Plan" will boost investment, expand domestic demand, and play a role in stimulating the real economy. Second, referring to the historical role of equipment renewal in promoting the development of the industry, the introduction of the "Implementation Plan" is conducive to reversing the market's pessimistic expectations of domestic industry demand, boosting the sentiment of the capital market, and clarifying the direction of industry investment while the economy is growing steadily. Third, it will help to improve the prosperity of the industrial equipment market and accelerate the repair of corporate statements, which is expected to drive listed companies to achieve "Davis double rise".
Zhang Xiaoguo: As far as the real economy is concerned, the mainland is a big industrial country, and the industrial added value accounts for more than 30% of GDP, which is huge. Promoting the renewal of equipment in the industrial field will stimulate the release of demand for equipment renewal, promote the upgrading of production capacity and the optimization and adjustment of industrial structure, and will also form a strong pulling effect on the overall economy. The renewal of equipment in the industrial field is also an important part of our economic structure from virtual to real, building a new type of industrialization, and creating new quality productivity, which will bring positive promotion to the real economy at the total and structural levels.
For the capital market, the equipment renewal policy in the industrial field will bring about the positive release of the demand for equipment renewal, and will also bring about the optimization and upgrading of the production capacity of the supply side of related industries, which is expected to promote the high-quality development of related industries at both the supply and demand ends, so as to provide more and higher-quality investment opportunities for the capital market.
For listed companies, the "Implementation Plan" clarifies the provision of relevant safeguard measures in terms of fiscal, tax and financial support, factor guarantee and standard guidance, which is conducive to reducing the investment cost of manufacturing enterprises in updating equipment, improving production capacity and quality, and implementing digital, intelligent, green and safe production, so as to form a more high-quality, efficient and energy-saving production capacity, thereby enhancing the competitiveness of manufacturing enterprises. In addition, the implementation of equipment renewal policies will also bring more business needs to companies in the relevant industrial chain, thereby helping enterprises achieve higher quality growth.
Huang Jichen: For the real economy, it will help stimulate domestic demand, promote economic circulation and supply-side optimization, and ultimately improve the quality of economic development. For the capital market, after stimulating demand and optimizing supply, it will help guide funds to invest in the direction encouraged by industrial upgrading. For listed companies, leading enterprises may receive corresponding financial and policy support, and then accelerate the process of digital and green transformation of their own production capacity, and ultimately strengthen their industrial competitiveness.
Cui Shutian: Equipment renewal will become an important force for the growth of the real economy, and downstream demand manufacturers will carry out technological transformation and upgrading through equipment renewal, improve production efficiency and product quality, and strengthen the competitive advantage of enterprises. The demand expansion and product upgrading of equipment manufacturers have driven their performance growth and ushered in new development opportunities.
Digital Economy, Green Energy,
Equipment renewal and other fields are good
China Fund News: High-end, intelligent, green and safe are the key directions of equipment renewal in the industrial field, which investment opportunities are worth paying attention to?
Zhu Guoqing: The update of the "Implementation Plan" can be summarized in two directions: eliminating backward and inefficient equipment and upgrading advanced equipment.
The elimination of backward and inefficient equipment will directly drive the demand for existing products, thereby benefiting the product sales of listed companies in related industries and realizing inventory clearance, focusing on traditional industries such as industrial machine tools, agricultural machinery, construction machinery, construction, and transportation.
The upgrade of advanced equipment will promote the combination of high-end, intelligent and green technology with the industry, realize equipment upgrading, help enterprises update high-tech, high-efficiency and high-reliability advanced equipment products, and the demand and application of new products will also be greatly improved, focusing on opportunities in high-tech industries such as aviation, photovoltaic and biotechnology.
Specific opportunities include: First, the digital economy is an investment area worth focusing on, especially in intelligent manufacturing equipment and digital infrastructure construction. The mainland is currently performing actively at the level of digital intelligent equipment, coupled with a new round of global scientific and technological revolution, the field of digital economy is expected to become an important main line of investment; second, the field of advanced equipment represented by industrial machine tools, automated machines, large aircraft (including aero engines and assembly integration capabilities), test and testing equipment; third, the old equipment and devices related to people's livelihood, such as the renewal of old pipe networks; fourth, the construction machinery level is expected to usher in an economic reversal, such as excavation, lifting and other machinery.
Cui Shutian: The most direct beneficiary is the machinery and equipment industry, and there are many good subdivisions, such as construction machinery, robots, machine tools, as well as energy machinery, agricultural machinery, packaging machinery, safety equipment, etc.
Huang Jichen: There are three opportunities worth paying attention to: first, equipment renewal focuses on high-end and high efficiency, pays attention to stock replacement + domestic substitution, rail transit equipment, construction machinery, agricultural machinery, industrial machine tools, elevators, scientific instruments, etc. are the key directions to accelerate the replacement of backward and inefficient equipment;
Zhang Xiaoguo: The implementation of equipment renewal policies in the industrial field will bring investment opportunities in many aspects, and related sectors such as machinery and equipment, manufacturing services, automation and digitalization, green energy, and power grids are particularly worthy of attention.
In the field of machinery and equipment, such as industrial machine tools, agricultural machinery, construction machinery, general equipment, petrochemical equipment, etc., in the field of automation and intelligence, such as industrial automation control, industrial Internet, digital factory, intelligent warehousing, new generation communication technology, artificial intelligence, edge computing and other sectors, in the field of manufacturing services such as testing services, oil and gas exploitation services, in the field of green energy such as photovoltaic, wind power, lithium battery and other sectors, and in the field of power grids such as intelligent power grids, electricity meters and other sectors, are expected to usher in a good future.
In addition, the high-energy-consuming and high-polluting sectors in the petroleum, chemical, smelting, building materials and other industries are also expected to usher in the optimization of production capacity structure and the improvement of production costs in this round of equipment renewal.
Tang Ge: Horizontal comparison of the stock replacement demand of each subdivision of machinery, through the equipment life cycle of each mechanical subdivision, we believe that machine tools, boilers, oil and gas equipment, textile equipment, construction machinery, railway equipment, etc. are driven by the demand for renewal to have strong elasticity, and the elasticity of equipment replacement demand relative to 2023 is above 100%, of which the flexibility of machine tools ranks first.
In terms of premiumization
Industrial machine tools, scientific instruments, ships, etc. benefit
China Fund News: The "Implementation Plan" proposes to speed up the replacement of backward and inefficient equipment. For industries where production equipment such as industrial machine tools, agricultural machinery, construction machinery, and electric bicycles are at a low level as a whole, we will accelerate the elimination of backward and inefficient equipment and old equipment that has been in service for a long time. In terms of premiumization, which sub-sectors have benefited more?
Zhu Guoqing: The "implementation plan" covers a wide range of industrial equipment updates, which is not only a cost reduction and efficiency increase for traditional manufacturing, but also an industrialization extension of various cutting-edge technological achievements, which is expected to improve the current manufacturing overcapacity, especially the current situation of obvious overcapacity in the low-end manufacturing industry. In terms of high-end, sub-sectors such as industrial machine tools, agricultural machinery, construction machinery, and ships have benefited more.
Cui Shutian: In terms of high-end equipment, high-end CNC machine tools and new energy lithium photovoltaic equipment have obviously benefited. High-end CNC machine tools are still the key areas of the mainland manufacturing industry, especially in aviation, aerospace, mold manufacturing and other industries, the localization rate is still relatively low, and the update of backward and inefficient equipment is expected to accelerate the domestic substitution rhythm of high-end CNC machine tools. The new energy lithium battery photovoltaic equipment is at a medium and high level as a whole, and updating and upgrading advanced equipment will help enterprises accelerate technology iteration and seize the new energy technology highland.
Miao Mengyu: The "Implementation Plan" proposes to "focus on promoting the industrial machine tool industry to update machine tools that have been in service for more than 10 years", so the industrial machine tool may be one of the directions that will benefit greatly.
Huang Jichen: two sub-industries are worth paying attention to: one is the industrial machine, on the one hand, the high-end machine tool has a long way to go, and the numerical control rate still has a lot of room for improvement; on the other hand, the industrial chain still has a large space for domestic substitution, which needs high-quality domestic supply to meet. The second is scientific instruments, domestic high-end electronic measuring instruments, mass spectrometers, chromatographs and other localization rates are low, technology needs to be broken through, and the equipment renewal program to give educational equipment subsidies will bring orders to scientific instrument companies.
Zhang Xiaoguo: High-end includes not only the replacement of existing backward and inefficient equipment, but also the updating and upgrading of high-end advanced equipment. In terms of the substitution of backward and inefficient equipment, high-end industrial machine tools, numerical control systems, testing equipment, automation equipment, instrumentation, hydraulic parts, motors, smart factories, intelligent warehousing and other sub-sectors have benefited more;
Tang Ge: Focus on three aspects, one is the industrial machine tool, which has an urgent need to update and will benefit from the trade-in of consumer goods as a basic means of production; the second is construction machinery, which is moving towards the direction of electrification transformation, superimposed on the recovery of equipment demand in the field of construction and municipal infrastructure;
Intelligent
Intelligent manufacturing equipment, artificial intelligence, etc. are good
China Fund News: The "Implementation Plan" proposes to accelerate the construction of smart factories, promote the in-depth application of new technologies such as artificial intelligence, 5G, and edge computing in the manufacturing process, and form a number of typical scenarios such as virtual testing and commissioning, process digital design, and intelligent online detection. In terms of intelligence, what kind of listed companies are good?
Zhu Guoqing: The main beneficiaries are: First, industrial robots, industrial control and other automation equipment companies. This is the core hardware for manufacturing production line upgrades, which helps to reduce production costs and improve production efficiency. In recent years, domestic robots have relied on China's advantageous industries such as lithium battery and photovoltaic to improve their product competitiveness, but there is still a gap with foreign brands, and there is still a lot of room for improvement in the future penetration rate.
The second is a process device company represented by sensors and instrumentation. This is a necessary prerequisite for intelligent manufacturing to achieve precise control and data transmission, and the localization rate in this field is still low, especially the sensors were mostly imported before, and the purchase price was expensive and the cycle was long. At present, there are still few domestic suppliers with complete categories, high quality and high efficiency, and there is a broad space for domestic substitution in the future.
The third is industrial software and intelligent detection companies. The realization of intelligent manufacturing is a spiraling process of hardware and software products, and excellent industrial software and intelligent detection are important carriers to realize the closed loop of procurement, production and sales.
Tang Ge: First, general intelligent equipment, such as industrial control, industrial robots and injection molding machines; second, airport equipment, such as digital airport construction and equipment procurement postponed in the early stage, are expected to be gradually repaired this year; third, logistics equipment and sensing equipment.
Cui Shutian: In terms of intelligent equipment, intelligent manufacturing equipment, artificial intelligence, digital infrastructure and other related companies are welcome to be good. With the construction of smart factories, the penetration rate of intelligent manufacturing equipment such as industrial robots, industrial controls, and sensors will be further improved. The in-depth application of artificial intelligence has promoted the level of factory intelligence to a higher level, and the construction of digital infrastructure has provided support for smart factories.
Huang Jichen: The intelligent upgrade of the manufacturing industry is dominated by customized needs, including process industry automation, factory automation production line upgrade and control, CNC system, industrial software, etc.
Zhang Xiaoguo: In terms of intelligence, companies with strong product strength in industrial robots, numerical control systems, industrial Internet and other automation and intelligent related products, as well as companies with strong intelligent factory and intelligent warehousing integration capabilities, have benefited the most.
In terms of green transformation
Pay attention to energy conservation, environmental protection, new energy and other industrial chains
China Fund News: The "Implementation Plan" proposes to accelerate the green transformation of production equipment, promote the energy efficiency upgrade of key energy-using equipment, and focus on improving the level of energy efficiency. What are the investment opportunities in terms of greening?
Zhu Guoqing: On the whole, there are two major directions that will clearly benefit, one is the "greening" of large-scale equipment, the transformation of construction machinery and ships to clean energy such as low emission standards and electrification, and the other is the green transformation of high-energy-consuming production equipment and improving energy efficiency, as well as the "greening" of large-scale equipment such as construction machinery and ships.
Taking construction machinery as an example, the trend of electrification has been very clear in the two categories of forklifts and aerial work platforms, but the development pace of excavators, cranes and other categories is still relatively slow, facing the status quo of high prices, difficult charging, and insufficient technical support. In the future, with the improvement of technology maturity and infrastructure, the economic benefits of the whole life cycle of electric products are expected to be reflected, and the pace of electrification replacement is expected to accelerate.
In terms of green transformation and energy efficiency improvement of high-energy-consuming equipment, green transformation and upgrading of production equipment in high-carbon emission industries such as steel and building materials will be carried out. At the same time, the energy efficiency of key energy-using equipment such as boilers, motors, air compressors, heat exchangers and other products will be upgraded.
Cui Shutian: In terms of green transformation of equipment, opportunities for high-efficiency, energy-saving and environmental protection equipment are worth paying attention to. This year's government work report put forward the expected goal of reducing energy consumption per unit of GDP by about 2.5%, and high energy-consuming industries such as steel, building materials, non-ferrous metals, etc. are facing pressure to reduce energy consumption, and must accelerate the green transformation of equipment in order to meet the requirements of reducing energy consumption, which is expected to drive the renewal demand for production equipment, energy-saving equipment, solid waste treatment and water-saving equipment in various industries.
Tang Ge: The "Implementation Plan" proposes to promote the promotion and application of energy-saving and environmentally friendly green equipment in key energy-using industries and key links, promote the safety transformation of old petrochemical equipment, improve the intrinsic safety level of the civil explosive industry, and promote the application of advanced and applicable safety equipment. Specifically, the first is the process industry, the development direction of new industrialization, energy conservation and carbon reduction, and ultra-low emissions has been mentioned many times, and the petrochemical, metallurgy, nonferrous metals and other process industries have a stronger willingness to update. The second is green transformation, promote the upgrading of key energy-using equipment in various fields such as industry, and promote the application of energy-saving equipment with energy efficiency level 2 and above.
Huang Jichen: Equipment upgrading in traditional high-energy-consuming fields, such as steel, smelting, chemical industry and other fields, is worth paying attention to. For these companies, reducing the energy consumption of their equipment is expected to lead to a significant reduction in production costs. With policy support, owners will have a stronger willingness to accelerate the upgrading and transformation of equipment, thereby stimulating upward revision on the demand side.
Zhang Xiaoguo: Energy conservation and environmental protection related industrial chains, photovoltaic, wind power, hydropower, nuclear power and other green energy, as well as advanced energy storage, are worth paying attention to.
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