China Fund News reporter Yan Jingying, Mo Lin, Zhao Xinyi
After a lapse of ten years, the State Council once again issued a guiding document on the capital market.
A few days ago, the State Council issued the "Several Opinions on Strengthening Supervision and Preventing Risks and Promoting the High-quality Development of the Capital Market". The opinions issued this time have a total of 9 parts, which is the third "national nine articles" in the capital market.
What are the significance and policy directions of the introduction of the new "National Nine Articles", what kind of leading role will it play, and where are the follow-up market opportunities?
In this regard, a reporter from China Fund News interviewed six well-known securities chief economists and chief analysts, namely: Yang Fan, chief macro and policy analyst of CITIC Securities, Hu Yuwei, chief policy analyst of China Securities Construction Investment Securities, Fu Jingtao, chief analyst of Shenwan Hongyuan research strategy, Chen Fu, chief analyst of GF Securities, Wang Yi, chief economist of Great Wall Securities, and Yang Chao, strategy analyst and team leader of China Galaxy Securities.
Interviewees said that the new "National Nine Articles" clarified the short-term, medium-term and long-term "three-step" goals for the construction of the capital market, and drew a blueprint and timetable for the high-quality development of the capital market in the future. After the release of the first two "National Nine Measures", the A-share market has ushered in a sharp rise, and the subsequent market performance is worth looking forward to.
The new "National Nine Articles" are of great significance
Strengthen supervision and risk prevention in the first place
China Fund News: Compared with the previous two "National Nine Articles", what are the highlights and profound meanings of the new "National Nine Articles"?
Fu Jingtao: The State Council's three "National Nine Measures" for the capital market are all based on the background of key development nodes, which are a systematic layout for reform and directly point to the direction of future development.
Compared with the previous two documents, the new document bears a heavier historical task, focusing on clearing up historical issues, standardizing development on this basis, and the significance is closer to the legal construction of "four beams and eight pillars" in 2016.
As the mainland's capital market continues to mature, the necessity of introducing structural adjustment policies since 2016 has gradually been higher than that of unilateral development policies, which is determined by the main contradictions in different market stages. The 2024 document, entitled "Several Opinions on Strengthening Supervision and Risk Prevention and Promoting the High-quality Development of the Capital Market", puts strengthening supervision and risk prevention in the first place. This is a comprehensive thinking and layout of the policy since the stock market weakened in 2023 and the volatility increased in early 2024, which is intended to promote the resolution of the deep-seated contradictions accumulated in the capital market for a long time.
Yang Fan: The three "National Nine Measures" have demonstrated the country's understanding of the core issues of the capital market. Compared with the content of the three "National Nine Articles" in 2004, 2014 and 2024, the background of the issuance of the document is similar, all of which are in the stage of macroeconomic growth pressure, tight market liquidity, and relatively sluggish market sentiment.
The core of the 2004 "National Nine Articles" is to answer the question of whether to focus on building the capital market and how to build the capital market framework, and promote a series of institutional construction represented by the reform of equity division. In 2014, the core of the "National Nine Articles" was to answer the question of how to strengthen the capital market, enrich investment categories and introduce social funds, from on-site to off-market, from public to private, from equity to debt, from spot market to derivative market, to promote the construction of multi-level capital market in many aspects, and improve the proportion of direct financing.
In 2024, the new "National Nine Measures" focus on the center of Chinese-style modernization, anchor the goal of building a financial power, and focus on answering questions such as how to do a good job in the capital market, improve the quality of listed companies, improve investor returns, and optimize the service capabilities of intermediaries.
At the same time, the new "National Nine Measures" in 2024 put forward more specific measures for the medium and long-term development of the capital market, which have two main characteristics: one is political, that is, strengthening the party's overall leadership over the capital market, serving major national strategies and promoting high-quality economic development, and the other is people's nature, that is, practicing finance for the people and protecting the rights and interests of investors.
As an authoritative statement of official caliber, the "National Nine Articles" is a programmatic document for the reform of the capital market in the next 10 years, which is of great significance in building consensus and strengthening cognition, and has laid a solid foundation for the arrival of the medium and long-term bull market in the capital market.
Yang Chao: In 2004, the first "National Nine Measures" focused on promoting the development of the capital market, in 2014, the second "National Nine Measures" focused on protecting the interests of small and medium-sized investors, and this "National Nine Measures" focused on strengthening supervision and risk prevention, so as to achieve the transformation of the development paradigm to high quality.
The new "National Nine Articles" have nine major highlights: First, it puts forward the overall requirements, involving the "five musts" and the overall goal; second, it strictly controls the issuance and listing access for unlisted companies; third, it strictly supervises the continuous supervision of listed companies and enhances the protection of investors' interests; fourth, it strengthens the supervision of delisting and improves the compensation and relief mechanism for investors in the delisting link; fifth, it strengthens the supervision of securities and fund institutions and promotes the industry to return to its origins. Sixth, strengthen transaction supervision and enhance the internal stability of the capital market, seventh, promote the entry of medium and long-term funds into the market, eighth, serve high-quality development and promote the development of new productive forces, and ninth, promote the formation of a joint force to promote the high-quality development of the capital market.
Chen Fu: The promulgation of the third "National Nine Measures" marks that the development of the mainland's capital market has entered a new cycle, and draws a blueprint and timetable for the high-quality development of the capital market in the future.
The State Council issued the "Several Opinions of the State Council on Strengthening Supervision and Preventing Risks and Promoting the High-quality Development of the Capital Market", which has changed the core ideas and tasks of the capital market from "reform and opening up and stable development" in 2004 and "healthy development" in 2014 to "high-quality development" this year. The "National Nine Articles" fully reflect the political, people-oriented, goal-oriented and problem-oriented nature of the capital market.
The "National Nine Measures" comprehensively deepen reform and opening up from the perspectives of serving new quality productivity, improving the multi-level capital market system, and coordinating the high-level institutional opening and security of the capital market, so as to better serve the high-quality development of the capital market.
Strictly control the capital market "one in and one out"
Improve the quality of listed companies through multiple channels
China Fund News: The new "National Nine Articles" require strict "entry gates" for issuance and listing, strict supervision of listed companies, and increased supervision of delisting. How should this be interpreted?
Fu Jingtao: On the issuance side, the policy further consolidates the responsibilities of listed companies, intermediaries, exchanges, securities regulatory commissions and other entities, clarifies the accountability mechanism, and involves IPOs, spin-offs, refinancing and other business links, aiming to improve the quality of listed companies from the source. Among them, listed companies are a "key minority", and the policy emphasizes the improvement of listing standards, and puts forward specific requirements such as "improving the evaluation standards for scientific and technological innovation attributes on the Science and Technology Innovation Board" and "disclosing dividend policies when listing".
On the listed company side, the policy focuses on restricting shareholding reduction and encouraging dividend repurchase to strengthen the investor-oriented orientation, and multi-faceted restriction on shareholding reduction: not only strictly regulates the key areas of shareholding reduction such as controlling shareholders and actual controllers, but also emphasizes the principle of "substance over form" to expand the scope of supervision, while the requirement of "ordering the violating entity to repurchase the illegally reduced shares and pay the price difference" is strengthened from the level of punishment after violating the law.
The policy emphasizes "promoting multiple dividends, pre-dividends, and dividends before the Spring Festival" and "guiding listed companies to repurchase shares and cancel them according to law" and "encouraging listed companies to focus on their main business, comprehensively using mergers and acquisitions, equity incentives, etc. to improve the quality of development", and increase the incentive for high-quality companies;
Yang Fan: Strictly control the "one entry and one exit" of the capital market, and the import side should consolidate the information disclosure responsibility of issuers and the "gatekeeper" responsibility of intermediaries, and the export side should deepen the reform of the delisting system to achieve the survival of the fittest.
For the import side, the new "National Nine Articles" propose to improve the listing standards of the main board and the Growth Enterprise Market, improve the evaluation standards of the scientific and technological innovation attributes of the Science and Technology Innovation Board, and formulate post-listing dividend policies before enterprises go public, so as to enhance the ability of listed companies to steadily return investors. At the same time, the new "National Nine Articles" emphasize strengthening the responsibility of the whole chain of issuance and listing, such as establishing a retrospective accountability mechanism and a "blacklist" system for intermediary institutions, and improving the establishment and operation mechanism of the stock listing committee.
Judging from statistics, in 2015~2023, the average annual number of delisted companies in the domestic market is only 16, and the average annual delisting rate is less than 1%, which is far lower than the overseas level. The "Opinions" emphasize the acceleration of the formation of a normalized delisting pattern of "retreating as much as possible" and "timely clearing", improving the differentiated delisting standard system of different sectors, and improving the financial delisting indicators, market value standards and other trading delisting indicators. According to the latest financial and transactional delisting indicators, at least 97 of the listed companies meet the criteria, with a total scale of about 277.37 billion yuan, accounting for 0.39% of the total scale of the A-share main board market.
Wang Yi: There are three key points to pay attention to in terms of increasing the supervision of delisting. The first is to further tighten the criteria for mandatory delisting. Establish and improve a differentiated delisting standard system for different sectors, scientifically set the scope of application for major illegal delisting, tighten financial delisting indicators, improve market value standards and other trading delisting indicators, and increase the implementation of standardized delisting. The second is to further unblock diversified delisting channels. Encourage and guide the head companies to base themselves on the main business and increase the integration of listed companies in the industrial chain. The third is to further reduce the value of "shell" resources. Strengthen the supervision of mergers and acquisitions, strengthen the relevance of the main business, strictly control the quality of injected assets, increase the supervision of "backdoor listing", and accurately crack down on all kinds of illegal "shell" behaviors.
In the future, the regulatory authorities will further deepen the normalized delisting mechanism, further optimize the delisting indicators, and set more precise and hierarchical delisting standards. For companies that have major violations of the law and have no investment value, we should "retreat as much as possible", accelerate the survival of the fittest, and enhance the overall investment value of the stock market.
Yang Chao: On April 12, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) issued the "Opinions on Strictly Implementing the Delisting System" (hereinafter referred to as the "Opinions"), which is in line with the relevant provisions on delisting supervision in the new "National Nine Articles". The "Opinions" put forward 17 specific measures in five aspects, including further tightening the mandatory delisting standards, gradually broadening diversified exit channels, vigorously reducing the value of "shell" resources, effectively strengthening regulatory law enforcement, and more vigorously implementing investor compensation relief, aiming to further deepen the reform of the delisting system and achieve an orderly and timely settlement pattern.
Among them, in terms of delisting standards, the "Opinions" require a series of measures such as increasing the delisting circumstances, improving the delisting indicators of loss-making companies, and improving the trading delisting indicators, so as to speed up the liquidation of problematic companies, improve the market survival of the fittest mechanism, improve the overall quality of listed companies, and better protect the rights and interests of investors.
Vigorously promote medium and long-term funds into the market
Mutual funds are expected to be a key area
China Fund News: The new "National Nine Articles" clearly put forward "vigorously promote the entry of medium and long-term funds into the market, and continue to expand the long-term investment force". What do you think of this requirement?
Wang Yi: The new "National Nine Measures" support the construction of a "long-term money and long-term investment" policy system, vigorously develop equity public funds, and greatly increase the proportion of equity funds. Establish a fast-track approval channel for exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to promote the development of indexed investment. Comprehensively strengthen the investment and research capacity building of fund companies, enrich the types of investable assets and investment portfolios of public funds, and transform from scale-oriented to return-oriented for investors.
In addition to public funds, the new "National Nine Articles" propose to optimize the policy environment for equity investment of insurance funds, and implement and improve the performance evaluation methods of state-owned insurance companies. At the same time, bank wealth management and trust funds are encouraged to actively participate in the capital market and increase the scale of equity investment.
The new "National Nine Articles" propose to improve the professional capabilities of institutions and enhance the long-term returns of investors, which is in line with the previous "investor-oriented" requirements, and the focus is to increase the protection of investors' rights and interests. Correspondingly, the fund investment management and sales assessment system should also be reformed for the "long-term". Follow-up funds and other institutions may launch more products and services to match the medium and long-term capital needs, promote the expansion of social security funds, basic pensions, annuities and other types of pension professional investment managers, further enhance the core investment and research capabilities of industry institutions, and promote the supply-side reform of industry institutions.
Chen Fu: The new "National Nine Articles" vigorously promote the entry of medium and long-term funds into the market from the aspects of market ecology, public funds, and insurance funds. The mutual fund industry is expected to become a key area for regulators to focus on and vigorously promote development.
On the product side, we vigorously developed equity public funds and greatly increased the proportion of equity funds. On the investment and research side, we have comprehensively improved the investment and research capabilities of fund companies, enriched the types of investable assets and investment portfolios of public funds, and changed from scale-oriented to return-oriented investors. On the management side, we will steadily reduce the comprehensive rate of the public fund industry, study and standardize the remuneration system of fund managers, revise the classification and evaluation system of fund managers, and urge the establishment of rational investment, value investment and long-term investment concepts.
At the same time, we will take multiple measures to increase the investment of insurance funds in the equity market, implement and improve the performance evaluation methods of state-owned insurance companies, encourage long-term equity investment, improve the regulatory system for equity investment of insurance funds, and optimize the information disclosure requirements of listed insurance companies.
Yang Fan: Previously, the Central Financial Work Conference proposed to "focus on building modern financial institutions and market systems, dredge the channels for funds to enter the real economy, optimize the financing structure, and better play the role of the capital market hub", giving a positive and clear tone to the function and significance of the capital market. In the future, the capital market will continue to improve the tolerance of new quality productivity, and enterprises with real potential in line with national industrial policies and strategic development will receive greater support from financial resources.
In addition, the current proportion of medium and long-term capital holdings in A-shares is less than 6%, which is lower than the level of more than 20% in overseas mature markets. Medium and long-term funds mainly include insurance funds, social security funds and pensions. The new "National Nine Articles" proposes to improve the investment policies of the national social security fund and the basic pension insurance fund, enhance the flexibility of enterprise annuity and personal pension investment, and encourage bank wealth management and trust funds to actively participate in the capital market, which will help enhance the internal stability of the capital market.
Hu Yuwei: The new "National Nine Articles" are clear, promote medium and long-term funds into the market, encourage social security funds, basic pension insurance funds, enterprise annuities, personal pensions, bank wealth management, trust funds and other incremental funds to enter the market, and undertake these needs of products that are equity funds, including active equity and passive equity.
In addition, the new "National Nine Articles" mentions that promoting the development of indexed investment and accelerating the entry and scale growth of passive equity funds is one of the possible policy intentions, which is also in line with the usual investment preferences of long-term large-scale funds.
It is expected to help the market get out of the slow bull
Focus on high-dividend investment opportunities
China Fund News: After the announcement of the new "National Nine Articles", the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges have successively issued relevant supporting policy documents to form a "1+N" policy system. What do you think of this new system?
Chen Fu: For the first time, the China Securities Regulatory Commission put forward the framework concept of the "1+N" policy system, making it clear that "1" is the opinion itself, "N" is a number of supporting system rules, and the main line of the "1+N" policy system is to strengthen supervision, prevent risks, and promote high-quality development.
The "1+N" policy system emphasizes integrated promotion and systematic implementation, and strong regulatory measures will be implemented quickly. On the entry side, the new system requires a moderate increase in the financial indicators of companies on the main board and the growth enterprise board, and puts forward higher requirements for the attributes of the science and technology innovation board. On the export side, we will strictly enforce the standards for delisting, smooth multiple delisting channels, strengthen the supervision of mergers and acquisitions, reduce the value of "shell" resources, and promote the ecological optimization of the capital market. On the financing side, we will solidify the penalties for illegal shareholding reductions, optimize the supervision of programmatic transactions, treat domestic and foreign investors equally, clarify the criteria for identifying high-frequency transactions, implement differentiated fees, and take a multi-pronged approach to effectively maintain a fair, open and just market order and boost market confidence.
Hu Yuwei: Chairman Wu Qing said in an exclusive interview that the new "National Nine Articles" adhere to systematic thinking, the combination of near and far, and comprehensive policies, and work with the China Securities Regulatory Commission to organize and implement the implementation arrangements with relevant parties to jointly form a "1+N" policy system.
There are 6 policies solicited by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, and 19 policies solicited by the three major exchanges of Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing, with a total of 25 policies. At present, the field represented by "N" will continue to be expanded, and at this stage, it mainly focuses on delisting supervision, issuance supervision, listed company supervision, securities company supervision, transaction supervision, listing review, major asset restructuring review, and shareholder and directors, supervisors and senior executives to reduce their shareholdings, highlighting "strong foundation" and "strict supervision and strict management".
The A-share market outlook is worth looking forward to
China Fund News: Combined with the market performance after the implementation of the first two "National Nine Measures", what impact do you think the new "National Nine Measures" will have on the subsequent market trend?
Hu Yuwei: After the release of the first two "National Nine Articles", the A-share market has ushered in a sharp rise, and this "National Nine Articles" may help the market out of the slow bull market.
In 2004, on the first trading day after the release of the "National Nine Measures", the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shenzhen Component Index closed up 2.08% and 1.56% respectively, and in 2005, a series of reform documents were released one after another, which relayed the impetus to the rise of A-shares. In October 2007, the Shanghai Composite Index hit a high of 6,092.06, the Shenzhen Component Index rose to 19,358.44 points, non-ferrous metals and other blue chips took the lead in rising, and the banking and real estate sectors performed one after another.
In 2014, a year after the release of the "National Nine Articles", A-shares once again came out of the big bull market, the Shanghai Composite Index rose nearly 3,000 points, reaching a maximum of 5,166.35 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index touched 18,098.27 points, with outstanding performance in computer, media, communications and other industries.
Fu Jingtao: The change of supervision is not only a summary, reflection and correction of historical experience, but also a guide to the direction of new trends in the future. The regulatory thinking has changed from "building systems, non-intervention, and zero tolerance" to "strengthening supervision, preventing risks, and promoting high-quality development", and high dividends are becoming a trend of thought. The management's promotion of the rule of law in the capital market resonates with market preference (large-scale bottom warehouse assets) and corporate governance optimization trends (high-quality governance, high-quality returns, and high-quality mergers and acquisitions), which may be the clues to the next wave of trends.
In addition, the extension growth of state-owned enterprises and central enterprises in 2024 may be an important highlight of the strengthening of "China Special Valuation". The breakthrough of key technical bottlenecks through mergers and acquisitions and the normal and flexible recovery of extension by technology enterprises are also the source of new growth points for the growth of science and technology under the "dumbbell strategy".
Wang Yi: After the introduction of the first two "National Nine Measures", from the medium and long-term perspective, the performance of the broad market index has been relatively good.
Compared with the previous two articles, the new "Nine Articles" are more stringent, involve a wider range of aspects, and have more detailed provisions, emphasizing the "consistency of macro policy orientation", and the subsequent supervision of the capital market may pay more attention to inter-departmental coordination, rather than being limited to the scope of the China Securities Regulatory Commission. In the future, the system rules will continue to improve in terms of raising listing standards, giving full play to the role of securities funds, optimizing dividends, standardizing shareholding reductions, strictly forcing delisting standards, cracking down on violations, and introducing medium and long-term funds, and the investability and rate of return of the capital market are expected to be improved in the long run.
It is recommended to pay attention to the potential investment opportunities in the following aspects: First, the high dividend/bonus strategy with stable returns, some of which are state-owned manufacturing enterprises, by actively reducing the amount of non-performing assets and loans, their productivity continues to increase, focusing on investment opportunities in terms of continuous and stable dividends, buybacks and holdings, mergers and acquisitions, and restructuring expectations. The second is to combine the promotion of new quality productivity policies and pay attention to the long-term prosperity of AI, advanced manufacturing, medicine and biology and other subdivisions. Third, it is expected to benefit from the requirements of securities and fund institutions to "be better and stronger" and benefit from the long-term reform of the capital market.