The security landscape in the Middle East is experiencing an unprecedented earthquake, and the shockwaves of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict have quietly touched the cornerstone of stability in the entire region. The long-simmering contradictions between Israel and Iran, with the escalation of a series of assassinations and bomb attacks, have crossed the boundaries of peaceful settlement, especially Israel's recent bombing of Iranian embassies abroad, which is like casting a spark on a powder keg and completely igniting the fire of revenge in Iran.
【Dynamic Focus】
Recently, the southern Israeli city of Eilat was shocked by a UFO attack, and the Israeli Navy quickly activated the ship-based Iron Dome defense system to intercept it, but the outcome of this contest was confusing. At the same time, Iraq's Islamic Resistance Group has publicly admitted that this is only part of a series of strikes on key Israeli facilities in the past few days, including strategic points such as the Ashklon oil port and the Athurem space base, and that the impetus behind this is Iran.
[Tactical Analysis and Economic Considerations]
Iran and its supporters have unleashed the low-cost, high-efficiency tactics that have shone in the Houthi conflict – suicide drone and cruise missile strikes. While such counterattacks may seem limited in terms of immediate destructive power compared to previous large-scale Israeli air strikes, their potential strategic value cannot be overlooked. In the face of such an "asymmetric war," Israel is faced with a serious cost dilemma: How to deal with drones that cost only a few thousand dollars each with expensive anti-aircraft missiles? This mode of attrition is undoubtedly an extreme test of the endurance of Israel's defense system.
【International Wrestling and Strategic Chess Game】
The role of the United States in this crisis is unusually delicate. After the Israeli attack on the Iranian embassy, the United States immediately drew a clear line, suggesting that it had no intention of stepping into this bottomless maelstrom. The U.S. strategic presence in the Middle East has shown significant signs of contraction, and it will only make appropriate moves at critical moments when it comes to its own maritime rights and interests, such as the Red Sea route. Iran saw through this attitude of the United States and was able to increase its pressure on Israel while ensuring that the United States did not intervene directly.
【Future Trend and Risk Warning】
The current confrontation has not yet fully escalated into a large-scale conflict, but many uncertainties threaten to upset the fragile balance at any time. A change in the U.S. administration, a change in Israel's domestic politics, a change in the security situation for a particular leader, or a larger-than-expected impact of an attack can trigger a turning point for the situation to spiral out of control. At this turbulent crossroads, all countries in the Middle East and even the world will pay close attention to the Israeli dilemma under this round of Iran's counterattack, as well as the consequent regional strategic adjustment and restructuring. The final course of this storm will profoundly affect the future destiny of the entire Middle East region.