On Friday, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida embarked on a historic visit to the United States, becoming the first Japanese leader to visit the United States in nine years. His visit was intended to highlight Japanese investment and bilateral cooperation in the U.S. economy, symbolized by his visit to Toyota's battery plant in North Carolina.
Toyota, Japan's largest automaker, is investing a staggering $13.9 billion in the battery plant, which is expected to provide more than 5,000 jobs.
Kishida's rush to demonstrate Toyota's involvement in the U.S. economy stems from fears that former President Donald Trump, who has criticized the U.S. trade deficit with Japan, could put pressure on relations between the two countries. To take advantage of the tax breaks offered by the Biden administration, Japanese automakers have been expanding their production capacity in the U.S., ensuring that their electric vehicles meet the requirements for manufacturing in North America.
Within Japan, Kishida remains under scrutiny over a political funding scandal involving multiple LDP members, including senior lawmakers from the party's largest faction. Although the Liberal Democratic Party took punitive measures against some lawmakers involved in the scandal, Kishida himself was not disciplined despite the indictment of a former accountant of his group.
This sparked discontent within the Liberal Democratic Party and criticism from opposition parties, who felt that the investigation failed to fully reveal the truth related to the scandal.
Kishida's decisions on handling the scandal and its subsequent punishment could have an impact on his political future. Some experts believe that Kishida may use the success of his state visit to the United States to advance the general election in June.
In doing so, he hopes to reverse his declining popularity and cement his position as leader of the Liberal Democratic Party. However, he must tread carefully and provide satisfactory explanations to avoid further sparking divisions within the party.
Kishida's approval ratings plummeted due to the scandal, but his diplomatic achievements, such as a surprise visit to Ukraine in 2023 and the successful hosting of the G7 summit in Hiroshima, have temporarily boosted his popularity. However, controversy, including taking inappropriate photos at family gatherings, further contributed to the decline in prestige. His state visit to the United States provides an opportunity for him to regain power and potentially dissolve the House of Representatives in preparation for the Liberal Democratic presidential election in the fall.
Stephen Najib, a professor at Tokyo International Christian University, said, "A bilateral summit with the US president always gives a temporary boost to the Japanese prime minister. I don't expect this visit to be any different. ”
On the issue of dissolving the House of Representatives, opinions within the Liberal Democratic Party are divided. Some lawmakers believe that Kishida is strategizing for early elections, while others believe that the resistance he faces is too great for the early dissolution of the House of Representatives, and that the decision rests with the prime minister, who has the power to dissolve the House of Representatives under the Japanese constitution.
Liberal Democratic Party lawmaker Satsuki Katayama said Kishida appeared to be working on a strategy for an early election, while a party heavyweight said, "The headwinds will not disappear anytime soon, so the dissolution of the House of Representatives is unlikely." ”
However, the exact timing remains uncertain, and some have likened it to an apparition that becomes more elusive the closer you get to it.