Russia-Ukraine 4.12: EU diplomatic chiefs are worried about U.S. commitments, and European countries have taken action to support Ukraine
Original Xiaolean A place to write 2024-04-12 20:30
Morning Mist / Repost
Original Creator: Sue Fei
Dear readers and friends, this is a series of original articles on the war situation between Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan on April 12, 2024.
As a special reminder, yesterday's article was very good, which touched on why Germany is building an artillery factory in Lithuania and the impact of the military-industrial mobilization of Ukraine's allies on the course of the war. However, due to the lack of push, many readers and friends may not have read it, so I suggest you can take a look:
Seven sets of "Patriots" were sought by Ukraine, and Germany built an artillery shell factory in Lithuania
The first news to be reported today is that Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko today publicly stated that Belarus is ready to help Russia in peace negotiations with Ukraine if necessary.
I laughed when I saw the news. The old fox felt that now that Ukraine couldn't move, it was time to "welcome the king", so he jumped out and wanted to help Putin explore the reality of Ukraine. What a "heartwarming" "good old man"!
It is normal for treacherous people to be opportunistic. That's not what I'm laughing at.
It is ridiculous that even Lukashenko can see that Ukraine is at an extremely critical juncture, and Ukraine's most dependent US allies are indifferent to this. Johnson is still procrastinating under the pretext, Green is saying all kinds of cruel words, Trump is still talking about the "24-hour" solution to the war in Ukraine, and Biden is silent.
Such an obvious fact, can't you see it?
Josep Borrell, the head of EU foreign affairs, recently made a very painful remark, which should be the most painful speech ever made by an EU official since the US Congress "stuck its neck" in the Ukraine aid bill.
Although this statement is very sad to watch, it is a real reflection of EU officials on the current situation. In fact, because I often report unfavorable news about Ukraine, my war reports have recently seen a significant drop in reads and tips. If it's just for my own income, I'd rather not report it. However, after careful consideration, I would like to elaborate on this in order to let you know the real information.
I implore you not to be reluctant to reward just because you are unhappy to see it. If everyone's pattern is limited to this, it is equivalent to forcing me to make up lies and nonsense to make everyone happy. In that case, I would become the "Khorezm Messenger."
Josep Borrell said that the refusal of the United States to continue providing military assistance to Ukraine and Trump's rhetoric about withdrawing from NATO have created an "irreversible rift" in the security foundations of Europe and the world as a whole.
Borrell delivered the pivotal speech at the Europa Forum on April 9. He said that since the end of World War II, the United States has held the position of the main security guarantor of countries in the world that share Western values and oppose the "red threat." Throughout the Cold War, the U.S. military was a key factor in the security of all countries west of the Elbe. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the United States also brought the former Warsaw countries under protection.
But he bluntly pointed out that, looking at it today, what has stood firm for 75 years is no longer the case: "We need to make EU citizens understand that the American umbrella that protected us during and after the Cold War may not always be open." Perhaps, depending on who governs in Washington".
He made it clear that the United States does not want to deal with European security issues at all. Thus, even NATO's guarantees have become very short-lived.
Borrell called on the EU to strengthen its own strength so that it can strengthen the willingness of NATO members to abide by their commitments in today's situation. "We cannot rely on U.S. support and U.S. ability to protect us," he said. We must build our common defense capability. We have to take our responsibilities."
Frankly, I think Borrell's call is very urgent and timely. What affects Ukraine's aid situation today is not only the United States' rhetoric, but also Europe's weakness. If the Europeans had really taken their duty to protect themselves seriously over the past 20 years, spending more than 2% of GDP on their military, they would certainly be able to come to Ukraine's aid today, and it might even be possible that the Kremlin would not have dared to act rashly, and there would have been no war at all.
However, today's reality is that there are only 10 sets of "Patriots" in the whole of Germany, the French Army has only enough shells to fight a week's battle, and the Netherlands has no main battle tanks. This leaves Europe almost naked in the face of careerists.
Now let's put aside the hypothetical scenario and return to reality. Borrell went on to point out that NATO remains an important security tool, but European countries themselves are obliged to create a separate European security system. After all, NATO is a two-way street, and "American participation is all illusory." After all, just as the United States does not want to fight in Europe, Europe does not want to fight in the Pacific". Thus, Borrell further noted that as soon as Europe independently solves its security tasks, then "NATO will no longer be needed." The EU simply cannot afford to trust the commitment of the United States as the foundation of any alliance, nor is it impossible to build "something in common" without the United States.
Borrell's words are rather "politically incorrect", but this reflects the panic mood of the Europeans in reality. The slackness and weakness of the United States led the Europeans to believe that it was necessary to form their own independent security alliances, so that the United States would no longer be needed. But this is a departure from the historical tradition of close solidarity between Europe and the United States in recent decades, and if this vision materializes, the future global geopolitical landscape will be upended.
This, of course, is also contrary to the interests of the United States. Without the support of its European allies, the United States' huge overseas interests will be "left without a skin, and the hair will be attached"! I don't know if this is the "dissolution of NATO" that Trump wants. Now Trump himself does not dare to mention this slogan, but the Europeans themselves put it forward, or from Borrell, who has always been more pro-American.
Moreover, if the United States fails to fulfill its obligations to its European allies, how can its commitments to its Asian allies be assured? Will South Korea and Japan seek more reliable partners, stronger security guarantees, and other structural shifts in global security?
In other words, for the United States, giving up Ukraine is equivalent to giving up its European allies, and giving up its European allies will also collapse the credibility of the security products provided by the United States around the world, and at that day, the United States will be the biggest loser!
France, which has consistently called for "European independence", has now also stepped up its voice. The new French Prime Minister Gabriel Attar expressed a similar opinion in an interview with the Canadian media during a visit to Canada, saying that the security of the European Union should not depend on the United States, that Europe should rely mainly on itself, and that Europe needs a second "rescuer" outside NATO.
However, without the United States, Ukraine would not have been immediately defeated. "Although Ukraine is not yet a member of the European Union, the war in Ukraine poses a threat to the entire European Union" and that "we cannot separate the fate of the Ukrainian people from the fate of the people of the European Union, especially since Putin is determined to extend his destabilizing activities to the entire Union," Borrell said.
Borrell's words show that EU leaders will do their best to take up the task of saving Ukraine. We can indeed see the sincerity of these countries in supporting Ukraine from the all-out assistance of Germany, the Baltic countries and the Nordic countries, and the United Kingdom, although it is not a member of the European Union, is also doing its best to support Ukraine.
However, as I have analyzed before, European countries' investment in security in the past is too weak. If the United States withdraws from aiding Ukraine, will European countries be able to hold up Ukraine at this time when Ukraine is in a state of scarcity? If Ukraine can hold on, will the military-industrial mobilization of European countries be able to support Ukraine in regaining lost territory? Will the determination of Europeans and European political leaders be able to support Ukraine until the day when Ukraine will achieve a final and complete victory? These questions are still difficult to predict at present.
My personal view is still to call on the US House of Representatives to speed up the passage of the aid bill to Ukraine. This is extremely strong support for Ukraine, with which Ukraine can hold on and gradually regain lost ground.
This is also a great support for Europe, giving them a reason to continue to rally around the United States and become the most powerful structural support for peace around the world.
In the end, it is also extremely beneficial for the United States itself, which will decisively weaken careerists who are trying to undermine the "rules-based international order."
I believe that the United States must not give up on Ukraine, because their vast overseas interests cannot be separated, and their friendship with their European allies, which has historically been cemented with blood, cannot be severed today.
To say a thousand things and choose to support Ukraine is to choose practical interests, long-term interests, political correctness, and historical correctness; and to abandon Ukraine is tantamount to self-destruction of the Great Wall!
Trump and the Republican Party should put aside partisanship and put the interests of the American people first, and the peace and morality of the whole world first!
Briefing on the overall situation of the war between Russia and Ukraine:
1. On the 779th day of the war, according to the report on the results released by the General Staff of Ukraine this morning local time, in the past day, a total of 78 battles took place on the entire front.
As of yesterday, the Russian army has accumulated 451,730 casualties, with 840 new losses yesterday.
The Ukrainian army also destroyed a total of 7,146 Russian tanks, 9 new ones, 13,698 armored vehicles, 19 new ones, and 11,486 artillery pieces, 34 new ones.
2. From early morning to morning local time, there were no large-scale missile attacks, and the Ukrainian air defense network intercepted 16 of the 17 Shahid drones.
The ISW website published an article today saying that the Russian army is taking advantage of Ukraine's lack of air defense systems. They have increased the number of raids on the front line, while attacking Ukraine's energy system. In this way, the Ukrainian army is forced to make a dilemma between defending the front line or defending the settlements.
This view is completely consistent with what I said in yesterday's article. In fact, it's not that I'm particularly smart, but anyone can see that the only three "Patriot" systems, no matter how they are arranged, are unlikely to not only defend Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odessa, Lviv, but also shoot down the Su-34s who drop 50 to 70 gliding bombs a day on the front line, and now these Su-34s drop bombs at a distance of 70 to 90 kilometers from the front line, and only the "Patriots" can shoot them down.
Ukraine's Permanent Representative to the UN, Sergei Kyslyzia, said at a meeting of the UN Security Council that only 3% of Russian ammunition hit military targets.
He noted that since the beginning of the year, Russia has pursued a strategy of sabotage and terror against Ukraine, firing nearly 1,000 missiles, about 2,800 Shahid drones and nearly 7,000 guided glide bombs at Ukrainian cities and villages. Only 3% of Russian missiles, drones, and guided bombs hit military targets, while 97% hit civilian infrastructure. The Russian army attacked 80% of Ukraine's thermal power plants and also caused serious damage to hydroelectric power plants.
White House spokeswoman Karine Jean-Pierre said yesterday that Russia's recent destruction of Ukraine's critical energy infrastructure shows that the US Congress needs to immediately submit and pass a bill to support Ukraine. "The attacks on Ukraine in the last 24 hours are another terrible reminder that Ukraine needs support and that Ukraine is critical," she stressed!"
Zelensky is really difficult, the aid is not in place, there is a lack of soldiers and shells on the front line, he can only run in many ways to get as much aid as possible for his war-torn motherland. Yesterday, he arrived in Lithuania to attend the Three Seas Summit and hold talks with the heads of state of partner countries.
The "Three Seas Initiative", also known as the Baltic, Adriatic, Black Sea or Three Seas Initiative, is an international economic and infrastructure initiative that brings together the 12 countries of the European Union located near the Baltic, Black and Adriatic Seas.
In Vilnius, he met with Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda, President Peter Pavel of the Czech Republic, Romanian President Klaus Johannis and Latvian President Edgars Linkevich. Zelensky also signed a 10-year bilateral security agreement with the Latvian leader on behalf of Ukraine.
Zelensky stressed the need to renew the appeal to the international community for the provision of more air defense systems. He also stressed that "the evil of Russia poses a threat not only to Ukraine, but also to every country bordering Russia and to all those who value international law".
The three Baltic countries are really digging their hearts into Ukraine. At the same time as signing a 10-year security agreement with Ukraine, Latvia also announced that it would allocate 112 million euros for military support to Ukraine.
Estonian Foreign Minister Mags Sakner posted on social media calling on Western partners to provide Ukraine with air defense systems. "Don't overstate Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil refineries, but Russia is carrying out massive air strikes every day, systematically destroying Ukraine's energy infrastructure and continuing to occupy the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant," he said.
Yesterday, on Thursday, Lithuania handed over another batch of aid to Ukraine, including anti-drone guns, generators and folding beds.
Lithuania has already supplied a large batch of 155-mm ammunition this year, as well as M577 armored personnel carriers.
Although Borrell's remarks about the United States have made everyone worry about Europe-US relations, on the positive side, Europe is indeed actively taking action to save itself.
Macron has recently spoken out that France is accelerating weapons production and that Europe needs to mobilize. He also called for speeding up the transition to a "war economy" and helping Ukraine. He still declared his strong support for Ukraine, because it is, after all, a core European interest.
Poland, which has not provided military assistance to Ukraine for a long time, cannot sit still. Polish President Duda has publicly stated that Warsaw may transfer some of the missiles of the original Soviet-made air defense systems to Kyiv, as we all know, Ukraine is equipped with a large number of Soviet-made air defense systems, and if they can obtain these anti-aircraft missiles from Poland, their air defense network can be greatly enhanced.
Discussions about Ukraine's desire to acquire 7 Patriot air defense systems have been a big hot topic recently. European parliamentarians are very supportive of this assistance. At yesterday's plenary session in Brussels, the European Parliament refused to approve the budget previously submitted by the European Council, claiming that it would not approve as long as Ukraine had not received additional Patriot air defense systems.
The attitude of European parliamentarians is very helpful, and such a collective statement will be extremely helpful for European countries to make up their minds to transfer more "Patriot" missiles.
We sometimes laugh at too many "white lefts" and too many "virgins" in Europe, and ridicule them for being too benevolent, but in fact there is nothing wrong with humanitarianism, and there is nothing wrong with benevolence itself. At a time when Ukraine is defending itself against ballistic missile attacks every day, when houses are destroyed and civilians are dying every day, European parliamentarians, in the spirit of humanitarianism and internationalism, are urging EU countries to transfer air defense systems to Ukraine, proving that they do have love in their hearts.
A group of representatives of the Brussels public organization "Promote Ukraine" held a rally near the building of the European Clearing Financial Institution with a demand for the transfer of frozen Russian assets and accrued profits to Ukraine.
Olena Kuzhim, one of the organizers of the rally, told reporters: "Euroclear has about 200 billion euros of frozen assets in Russia, from which it earns between 3 billion and 4 billion euros a year. Therefore, we call on Belgian financial institutions and the European Union to transfer all income from these frozen assets, as well as the frozen assets themselves, to Ukraine. Tomorrow, April 12, the European Working Group will meet to discuss the legal and financial ways of transferring these frozen assets to Ukraine. That is why we must loudly declare today that Russia must pay for its crimes". She said that this kind of legislative work has been going on for two years, and every day of waiting in Ukraine has taken a heavy price, where new destruction is taking place and people are dying. So definitely don't put it off any longer!
Even Slovakia, which was not enthusiastic about aiding Ukraine before, has recently changed.
Ukrainian Prime Minister Shmyhal visited Slovakia in the past two days, and Slovakia took this opportunity to provide a lot of humanitarian aid to Ukraine. For example, Slovakia announced that it would supply Ukraine with demining vehicles.
Pro-Russian Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fiko unequivocally condemned Russia's use of force against Ukraine and said Ukraine needed help. Ukraine and Slovakia signed a roadmap for cooperation and four other documents, in which Slovakia pledged not only not to hinder Ukraine's accession to the European Union, but also to help.
Ukrainian Prime Minister Shmyhal warmly invited Fiko to attend the upcoming peace summit in Ukraine and discuss major matters for Ukraine's victory and the restoration of peace in Europe.
It can be seen that although the aid from the United States has temporarily "eaten the last meal but not the next meal", European countries that love peace and support morality are still helping Ukraine.
It is now difficult to predict whether Ukraine will be able to hold the front with very limited aid support, let alone when it will emerge victorious. However, as with many high-impact wars in the history of the world, only by first stabilizing the front can we wait for change. With the support of European countries, Ukraine has the possibility of dealing with the Russian army to the end.
And Russia is not invincible, let alone invincible. Although the Russian army has been aggressive in the past few months this year, they have also suffered huge losses, and there are also undercurrents in Russia. If it drags on, time may not be on Russia's side, and I am still extremely optimistic about the sacred cause of the Ukrainians to defend their homeland and country! I never believe that barbarism can defeat civilization, and I never believe that the peace-loving forces of the whole world can allow Russia to do anything wrong!
Source:2024-04-12 WeChat official account A place to write things
https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/W5N8uWnEc9-zxLfeAWS_hg
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