Recently, the solid-state battery sector has been catalyzed, and the market has responded enthusiastically. On April 8, the Zhiji L6 model was officially launched. As a model equipped with "the industry's first quasi-900V high-voltage ultra-fast charging solid-state battery", the Zhiji L6 attracted much attention before the press conference. The day after the release, the solid-state battery sector was even more red. At the same time, the news said that GAC officially announced today that it has completed the research and development of 30Ah large-capacity all-solid-state batteries, and will be the first to be used in Haobo models.
Solid-state batteries have the advantages of high energy density, high safety, and long cycle life, and are regarded as one of the most promising next-generation power battery technologies, and have a wide range of application prospects in energy storage, new energy vehicles and other fields. At present, the consensus view in the industry is that the large-scale industrialization of all-solid-state batteries will not be until 2030.
So, what is the development path of solid-state batteries? In the context of continuous breakthroughs in solid-state battery technology, how to grasp industrial investment opportunities?
The next generation of lithium battery upgrade direction
Due to the advantages of high energy density, high safety, and long cycle life, solid-state batteries are expected to become the next generation of high-performance lithium batteries. The core difference between solid-state batteries and liquid batteries is the solid-state electrolyte. Traditional liquid lithium batteries are mainly composed of four key elements: positive electrode, negative electrode, electrolyte and separator, while solid-state battery is a battery that uses solid-state electrodes and solid-state electrolyte.
In terms of performance, solid-state batteries are better than liquid batteries in terms of ionic conductivity, energy density, high voltage resistance, high temperature resistance, cycle life and other indicators, taking into account the high energy density and high safety characteristics that traditional liquid lithium batteries cannot take into account, and become an ideal battery for electric vehicles.
Figure 1: Comparison of solid-state battery performance vs. liquid battery
Source: Gaogong Lithium Battery, "Research Status and Prospect of All-Solid-State Lithium Battery Technology" (Xu Xiaoxiong et al.), Dongguan Securities Research Institute
With the gradual decline of liquid electrolyte content, the development path of solid-state batteries can be roughly divided into semi-solid (5-10wt%), quasi-solid (0-5wt%), and all-solid-state (0wt%).
From the perspective of technical routes, there are three mainstream routes for solid-state batteries: polymer solid-state batteries, oxide solid-state batteries, and sulfide solid-state batteries, and the classification standards are mainly based on different solid-state electrolytes. Among them, the sulfide electrolyte has the highest ion conductivity, good mechanical properties, excellent working performance, and has the greatest development potential in all-solid-state batteries.
Figure 2: Comparison of the three major technology routes for solid-state electrolytes
Source: Solid-state battery SSB, Deloitte, Battery China, Dongguan Securities
In this context, on April 11, according to the Qingdao Institute of Energy of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the institute has made new progress in the research of sulfide electrolyte, solving the industry pain points and bottlenecks of the sulfide all-solid-state battery stacking process, and the industrialization process of solid-state batteries may be further accelerated, thereby promoting the development of the entire lithium battery industry.
The market size of the industry is expected to grow rapidly
As the next generation of high-performance lithium batteries, the current solid-state battery industrialization process has begun, and the market size of the solid-state battery industry is expected to usher in rapid growth.
According to the "White Paper on the Development of China's Solid-State Battery Industry (2024)" released by EVTank, it is expected that by 2030, the global solid-state battery shipments will reach 614.1GWh, and the penetration rate in the overall lithium battery is expected to be about 10%, and the market size will exceed 250 billion yuan.
Figure 3: Global solid-state battery shipment forecast
Source: EVTank, Ivey Think Tank, Dongguan Securities Research Institute
According to the incomplete statistics of Gaogong Lithium Battery, by the end of 2023, the domestic semi-solid-state battery production capacity planning has exceeded 298GWh, and the landing capacity is close to 15GWh, and the shipment of semi-solid-state batteries in the same period has exceeded the GWh level, and it is expected to achieve 5GWh shipments in 2024. The China Business Industry Research Institute predicts that the mainland solid-state battery will reach 251.1GWh in 2030, and the CAGR will reach 74.6% from 2022 to 2030.
Figure 4: 2022-2030 mainland solid-state battery (semi-solid-state + solid-state) shipment forecast
Source: China Commercial Industry Research Institute, Zheshang Securities
Battery ETFs may welcome a good opportunity for layout
With the continuous breakthrough of solid-state battery technology and new progress in industrialization, all aspects of the solid-state battery industry will fully benefit, and the lithium battery industry chain will also usher in new investment opportunities due to technological iteration SH561910 and upgrading.
The Battery ETF (SH561910) tracks the CSI Battery Index (hereinafter referred to as the CS Battery Index), covering the core targets of battery manufacturing, core materials, lithium battery equipment, and energy storage inverters. From an industrial perspective, the CS battery index focuses more on the core part of the new energy vehicle industry, and has the characteristics of high growth and high elasticity.
In terms of detailed data, the top five constituents of the CSI Battery Theme Index are CATL, Sungrow, Sanhua Intelligent Control, EVE Lithium Energy and GEM, with a cumulative weight of 38.18% of the index.
Figure 5: Top 10 heavyweights in the CSI Battery Thematic Index
Source: China Securities Index Company Limited
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