Russia-Ukraine 4.11: Ukraine seeks 7 sets of "Patriots", and Germany quietly builds an artillery shell factory in Lithuania
Original Xiaolean A place to write 2024-04-11 20:16
Morning Mist / Repost
Original Creator: Sue Fei
Dear readers and friends, this is a series of original articles on the war situation between Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan on April 11, 2024.
Today's article is relatively long, 1,500 words more than the usual 6,000 words or so, but I think it's not badly written, and I hope you can read it.
Let's start with the airstrikes: during the airstrikes in the early hours of this morning, the Ukrainian Defense Forces destroyed 39 Shahid suicide drones and 18 missiles.
Obviously, today's air strikes were on a large scale and caused a lot of casualties and losses. Currently, more than 200 rescue workers and 100 investigators, forensic experts and explosives technicians are cleaning up the scene after a massive attack.
According to President Zelenskyy, Russia fired 40 missiles and about 40 attack drones at Ukraine in the early hours of the morning and in the morning, part of which was intercepted by air defense systems. How long Ukraine's remaining anti-aircraft missiles will last is really worrying. U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink said Ukraine needs more air defense and allied assistance in the event of another Russian attack on Ukraine.
Ukraine is recently working to get more Patriot air defense systems. All 3 existing "Patriot" systems in Ukraine were acquired last year, but they are clearly not enough. Zelenskyy previously said that 25 sets would be needed to cover the entire territory of Ukraine, while Foreign Minister Kuleba said that at the moment he is focusing on getting at least seven, but as soon as possible.
Let me interject here: if Ukraine gets 7 more Patriot systems, they will be able to deploy one Patriot system in all major cities across the country, and then one more for deployment near the front line. Everyone should remember that a month ago, at the turn of February and March, the Ukrainian army shot down 15 Russian fighters in a row, but this wave of climax has passed for a long time, and the Ukrainian army has not been able to play such a climax again. The reason is that the "Patriot" system must now be deployed far from the front line in order to protect large cities such as Kyiv or Kharkiv, so it is obvious that it cannot be used to curb the continuous dropping of gliding bombs by Russian fighters towards the forward positions of the Ukrainian army.
On April 10, Christopher Cavalli, commander of the U.S. European Command and supreme commander of NATO's European allies, said that the Russia-Ukraine conflict has dragged on for more than two years, and the Russian Aerospace Forces have lost only 10% of their warplanes, and many of its military capabilities, such as strategic bombing, long-range aviation, cyber capabilities, space capabilities and electromagnetic spectrum capabilities, have been largely unaffected.
Since most of the other existing air defense systems in Ukraine are short-range air defense systems, they cannot shoot down Russian fighters on the front line like the "Patriot". Ukraine is now really in great need of the "Patriot" system.
However, the coalition of allies has not been enthusiastic about this call, and so far no politician has been seen to respond to the matter. The head of EU diplomacy, José Borrell, said sadly: NATO troops have 100 "Patriot" systems, but they are still not able to supply 7 of them to Ukraine.
The 100 "Patriot" systems mentioned by Borrell are mainly distributed in the United States (more than 60), Germany (10), the Netherlands (3), Sweden (4), Romania (7), Poland (2), Greece (12), Spain (3) and other countries. Outside the United States, the distribution of the "Patriot" system is relatively sparse, and the transfer is more difficult at the practical level. But now the United States can't even pass the aid budget, and it can't even give one more rifle (the light weapons of a brigade mentioned yesterday were promised before).
At the recent meeting to commemorate the 75th anniversary of the founding of NATO in Brussels, Kuleba made a sharp statement: "Sorry for ruining the birthday party, but who can believe that the most powerful military alliance in the world cannot find 7 sets of "Patriot" systems placed in the only country in the world that resists ballistic attacks on a daily basis"? "Do you think that the entire US Army does not have a single spare Patriot system that does not have combat missions and cannot be transferred to Ukraine"?
I am also extremely sad to see Zelensky and Kuleba indignant at the indiscriminate bombardment of their homeland every day. Ukrainian civilians are dying every day, electricity facilities and homes are being destroyed one after another, Ukraine has suffered unprecedented losses, but what is even more terrifying is that Russia wants to use a strategy of terror to bring Ukrainians to their knees. The Ukrainians have been resisting under such pressure for more than two whole years. Although it can be supported at the moment, if one day it can't be supported and it collapses with a bang, and the Russians succeed, what will happen next? Obviously, the Russians will extend their hands to Belarus, Kazakhstan, Moldova, Georgia, the three Baltic countries, and then Poland, Slovakia, and Hungary. Then the Germans, the French, the Americans, and perhaps the British and Italians, will begin to bleed.
Many more will become victims of the Russian strategy of terror.
The greatest suffering in the world is not bloodshed, but the fact that there are ways and means to stop it, and still watching others bleed.
Briefing on the overall situation of the war between Russia and Ukraine:
1. On the 777th day of the war, according to the report on the results released by the General Staff of Ukraine this morning local time, in the past day, a total of 55 battles took place on the entire front.
A sad news: since the beginning of the war, 312 Ukrainian servicemen have been awarded the title of Hero of Ukraine. Behind most of the titles of "Hero of Ukraine" is a deceased son, daughter, or father or mother. They gave everything for their homeland.
As of yesterday, the Russian army has accumulated 450,890 casualties, with 810 additional losses yesterday.
The Ukrainian army also destroyed a total of 7,137 Russian tanks, with 5 new ones, 13,679 armored vehicles, 12 new ones, and 11,452 artillery pieces, with 48 new ones.
3. So far, Russian forces have killed 542 children in Ukraine and injured another 1,289.
4. Yesterday it was said that in Russia's Voronezh Oblast, an unknown drone attacked the "Borisoglebsk" aviation training center for the Russian Aerospace Forces, which trains pilots.
However, it is now clear that it was the 711th Aviation Equipment Repair Plant next to the Aviation Training Center that was bombed. Today, RFE/RL published the latest satellite images, from which it is clear that one of the buildings of the repair shop suffered significant damage, part of which collapsed.
According to available information, the 711th Aircraft Repair Plant is engaged in the repair and maintenance of air-to-air missiles, such as R-27, R-73, R-33 air-to-air missiles, Kh-25, Kh-58 air-to-surface missiles, guidance equipment for Kh-55 and Kh-22 cruise missiles, R-844M, R-845M ground-based radars and other flight support systems.
The impact of the attack is not yet known, but it will certainly be an obstacle to the normal functioning of the factory.
While we complain that Ukraine is receiving less and less aid and simply not enough, there is some good news.
Germany's Rheinmetall announced that it is ready to send another 20 "Weasel" infantry combat vehicles to Ukraine;
The EU is preparing the 14th package of sanctions against Russia;
The United States will provide Ukraine with a $156 million loan for the purchase of 40 diesel locomotives;
More than 35 U.S. artists, activists, and scientists, including Barbra Streisand, Sean Penn, and Timothy Snyder, called on the U.S. Congress to accelerate aid to Ukraine;
During his meeting with Biden, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida reaffirmed his unwavering support for Ukraine;
It can be seen that support for Ukraine is still the mainstream public opinion in the world.
It seems to me that the will of the Ukrainians to defend themselves is extremely strong at the moment, and the war is at a stalemate only because of the lack of assistance from the Ukrainians. The lack of aid is due to two root causes:
First, due to the U.S. election cycle, aid to Ukraine has become a hostage, although most members of Congress privately believe that Ukraine should be aided, but under the pressure of partisanship, none of them want to blink first, preferring to let Ukraine become a victim.
Secondly, the military-industrial mobilization of European countries is still underway and has not yet reached the stage of mass-producing enough products.
In fact, if either of these two factors can be successfully resolved, Ukraine will receive adequate assistance.
Fortunately, we can see some light today: quietly, the German company Rheinmetall will build a factory in Lithuania to produce ammunition. Don't underestimate this news, in fact, there is quite a wealth of information that can be revealed in the middle.
According to the news site "Delfi", the new Minister of Defense of Lithuania, Laurinas Kashchunas, wants the German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall to open a plant for the production of artillery shells in Lithuania by the end of 2025. Kashchunas said that most of the ammunition produced at the plant will be exported, and the rest will be supplied to the Lithuanian armed forces.
On April 9, the Lithuanian parliament passed amendments to the law that allow large defense companies to start developing projects in Lithuania more quickly. A day later, news broke that Rheinland was going to build a new artillery shell factory in Lithuania. This shows that Lithuania is quite enthusiastic about this project, and does not hesitate to amend its legislation for this purpose.
Lithuanian Minister of Economy and Innovation Aušrini Armonaite said that "the legislative reforms initiated will make the country one of the most friendly countries in the defense industry". He also said that "Rheinmetall will be the first project, but I hope that we will do everything we can to ensure that it is far from the last".
Where will the products of this ammunition factory end up? I think everybody knows the answer. Lithuania has donated 1.5% of its GDP to Ukraine, which exceeds the proportion of military spending by some European countries. Recently, Ukraine's power plant was bombed, and Lithuanian parliamentarians immediately suggested that all the equipment of a decommissioned thermal power station should be dismantled and sent to Ukraine.
In order to help Ukraine, Lithuania will not hesitate to stick a knife in both sides. If there is one ally in the war in Ukraine that is the most ironclad, it must be impossible to leave out Lithuania.
The construction of a new artillery shell factory will not only help Ukraine and strengthen Lithuania's own defense, but also be a great benefit to the Lithuanian economy.
Lithuania is a small country with a population of only 2.8 million. My hometown of Changzhou now has a registered population of 5.2 million, which is equivalent to "two stands". But is Lithuania really small? No, the country has a land area of 65,000 square kilometers, which is twice the land area of Hainan Island.
Half of the population of Changzhou City is located on the two Hainan Islands, which is quite vast and sparsely populated, so Lithuania's per capita resource occupancy is not low, and its development potential is very large.
Therefore, the construction of a new ammunition factory here, its effect on the economy, spread evenly to 2.8 million people, can even cause visible changes.
Lithuania has developed rapidly in recent years, and now has an annual per capita GDP of about 20,000 US dollars, almost twice that of China. This figure is only 1/2.5 of the Belgians in Europe.
But Lithuanians are much better off than in Ukraine – whose GDP per capita is only $4,000 a year – and much better than Poland, the Czech Republic, and much better than Hungary. Lithuania, along with Latvia and Estonia, was historically a region with relatively rapid development and a relatively strong foundation in the Soviet Union. They were the first countries to declare independence from the Soviet Union.
In March 1990, the Supreme Soviet of Lithuania adopted a resolution announcing its secession from the Soviet Union and issuing the Declaration of Independence, a full 21 months before the collapse of the Soviet Union, and subsequently refused to join the CIS.
Lithuania's industrial base, especially precision instruments and optics, is relatively leading among all the Soviet republics. But after they became independent and joined the EU, they went through a process of "deindustrialization". The reason is that although their industry is relatively developed in the Soviet Union, it is nothing compared to the old developed countries in Europe, so the Lithuanian economy experienced a period of recession, and it was not until about 2005 that the level of Lithuanian economic development returned to the peak level of the Soviet period.
In the process, a large number of Lithuanians went to other European countries to work, and it is said that "all the toilets in Europe have been laid off", which has also caused the population of Lithuania to drop from 3.8 million at its peak to 2.8 million now. In fact, we are accustomed to this trend of running out in the development of backward regions all over the world, and Poland and Hungary have also gone through the same process, and after Ukraine joins the European Union in the future, there will definitely be such an industrial U-shaped bottom, and the young people will all run out.
However, Lithuania, which is vast and sparsely populated and has a small absolute population, has become a country and region with a relatively high degree of social development and a relatively good level of economic development without much effort. As mentioned earlier, their per capita GDP is $20,000 per year, which is not too far from South Korea's $33,000. In general, their abundance of resources per capita, their relatively high level of education (54% of the country's population is highly educated), and their strong industrial and economic foundations have played a large role, but the fundamental reason for their prosperity today is that they have the European Union behind them.
Although we generally think of the three Baltic states as the so-called "Eastern European countries", in fact, from the map, these three countries are located in the center of Europe.
Due to the existence of the Baltic Sea, they have very convenient transportation with Germany, the core of Europe, which allows for the exchange of people and the transportation of goods very smoothly. Rheinmetall was able to locate its ammunition production plant in Lithuania, taking into account factors such as energy and water supply, labor, traffic and road conditions. Similarly, other European countries must have considered the country's level of development when setting up factories in Lithuania. The most important thing is that the fully open market within the EU determines that as long as the economy of Germany and France, the core countries of the EU, develop, even if the surrounding brothers can't eat meat, they can still drink a sip of thick soup.
Therefore, from this point of view, why do many former Soviet satellite states and republics, including Lithuania and Ukraine, have to flee Russia "all the way west"? The fundamental reason is that the European Union can really give benefits, while Russia only knows how to plunder agricultural and industrial products from these relatively rich regions.
As mentioned earlier, after Ukraine joins the EU, it will also experience a process of industrial bottoming out and people running out. But people are still crying and shouting to join, and the basic reason is the same. Ukraine is also a country with a strong industrial base and a university per capita. Follow Russia 4,000 a year, look at Lithuania 20,000 a year, a fool will not choose.
But for Germany, the establishment of an artillery shell factory in Lithuania is a long-term and strategic investment. At the same time as the news of the establishment of the Rhine factory, on April 8, local time, Germany sent an advance team composed of 20 German Bundeswehr soldiers to Lithuania to make relevant preparations for the selection of camp sites for the long-term garrison of the German army in Lithuania in the future. German Defense Minister Pistorius said on the same day that this was an important day for NATO and its defense capability.
What is the importance? Germany, which was defeated in World War II, is finally going to permanently station troops abroad!
This is by no means the first time that Germany has sent troops on a defensive mission abroad. After Slovakia transferred all of its MiG-29s to Ukraine last year, their airspace was defended by the German and Italian air forces.
However, it was indeed the first time for Germany after World War II that it had sent ground combat troops to a foreign country.
The reason is also simple, Lithuania will certainly not be able to defend itself against a possible Russian military offensive. Germany would never open a shell factory in a country that could not protect its territory.
Therefore, the establishment of a factory in the Rhine and the stationing of German troops are an important step for Germany to strengthen EU integration. That is to say, Germany is beginning to assume the bright and great historical responsibility of defending Europe!
For Germany, he is the real core country of the European Union. Unlike NATO, where Germany is always a follower, but in the EU, Germany is the real leader.
It can be said that if the United States does not come to the aid of Ukraine, which leads to the fall of Ukraine, the most hurt will be Ukraine first, and secondly, it will never be the United States, but Germany, because the impact is both huge and immediate.
Therefore, even if the United States wants to back down, Germany must not sit idly by and watch the situation deteriorate.
Making artillery shells in Lithuania can not only benefit the locals, but also help Ukraine, and further shape NATO's northern flank and the eastern gate of Europe into a stronger one. Germany's hand, which seems to be idle chess, is actually very important.
Moreover, Germany did not reluctantly make a predatory decision to tear down the east wall and make up for the west, but it really benefited all parties.
Unlike France, which shouts empty slogans all day long, Germany is really tempted to endure and silently integrate European resources and manpower, and in less than 20 years, the euro has become a currency that can be equal to the dollar.
I have also talked about the impact of the war in Ukraine on EU countries in an article before, and one of the most important ones is to strengthen defense and internal cooperation.
Now it seems that although France has taken advantage of the ebb tide of Russian arms to become the world's second largest arms exporter, it has no real intention of leading European affairs.
On the contrary, it was Germany, which not only stepped forward, but also seized the historical opportunity well.
After World War II, Germany deeply reflected on the mistakes of the Nazis and completely washed away its own sins and shame. If the rearmament is completed by taking advantage of the war in Ukraine, it is possible to truly help Europe become independent and thus stand up to Russia and the United States.
At that time, whether Trump is the president of the United States or not, he will regret it and his bowels will be green.
Today's good news doesn't stop there. There are two more:
1. The British company BAE Systems will maintain and repair the L119 light artillery in Ukraine. This artillery is a product of BAE, which has been damaged a lot due to a large amount of aid to Ukraine, and now BAE is ready to help the Ukrainian army maintain and repair this artillery in Ukraine, and no longer need to be transported to places outside Ukraine for repair as before.
Although the caliber of the L119 gun is only 105 mm and the firing range is about 15 kilometers, it is light and accurate, and at the moment when the Ukrainian army lacks 155 mm and 152 mm, 105 mm shells are relatively easy to obtain, so this kind of artillery is a very important supplement for the Ukrainian army at the moment.
2. European countries are accelerating the production of Patriot missiles. While the Patriot missiles are mainly produced at Loma and Raytheon's factories in the United States, Raytheon's European partners are now accelerating production.
Notice that there are no Europeans who are stepping up their military-industrial mobilization.
As I have analyzed in my previous article, US aid and the military-industrial mobilization in Europe will be the two biggest factors determining the speed of Ukraine's counteroffensive. I don't know when the American aid will end the "stuck neck", but the military-industrial mobilization in Europe, I think it can definitely be completed in two years.
In 1939, Hitler believed that the level of development of German military technology was superior to that of Britain and France. He calmly explained to his main generals why he had to go to war, saying that the Germans, armed with Mark 3 and 4 tanks, Bf-109 and Be-110 fighters, and "Stuka" bombers, were five years ahead of Britain and France in terms of concept and technology. Should he take advantage of the past five years to fight a big war, or should he hesitate and wait for Britain and France to catch up in five years?
Indeed, at the beginning of the war, German tanks were light and flexible, paralyzing French S-1 tanks everywhere, and in the Pacific, the Japanese "Zero" also had an absolute advantage over the American P-40 "Kitty Hawk".
However, from the German attack on Poland in September 1939 to the Battle of El Alamein in North Africa in 1942, it took only three years for Britain and the United States to complete the full mobilization of the military industry. Britain perfected the "Xiupo Marin" fighter, fought back and forth with the Bf-109 and Fw-190, produced the "Lancaster" heavy bomber, destroyed the German arsenal one by one, and the United States created a large number of M3 "Sherman", although it still could not compete with the "Tiger" and "Panther" type, but it could still exchange five for one. As for the Air Force, the American P-47 Thunderbolt and P-51 Mustang fighter jets escorted the B-17 Flying Fortress, reducing one German city after another to ruins.
In the Pacific Ocean, the P-38 "Lightning", the F4U "Corsair", and then the F6F "Hellcat" fought the Japanese "Zero Battle" and "Gale" fell like turkeys.
Therefore, when evil no longer has technological and numerical superiority in the military industry, the moral force will definitely be able to turn defeat into victory!
And today, I believe that the mobilization of the military-industrial complex of the countries of Ukraine's allies will never take another 3 years.
At the moment, everyone can see that Ukraine is experiencing temporary difficulties. But "there is nothing new under the sun". I do not believe that Russia's misdeeds can be ignored by peace-loving people all over the world, nor do I believe that Russia's perverse actions will allow them to receive substantial assistance from other countries.
I am convinced that the accelerated mobilization of the moral camp will definitely allow Ukraine to receive sufficient assistance, and that day will also be the beginning of Ukraine's counteroffensive and complete reconquest! Let us pray that day will come early!
Source:2024-04-11 WeChat official account A place to write
HTTPS://MP.Weixin.qq.com/s/qXFS0A088VA005xichiha
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