"The more you rise, the more you buy" is vividly reflected in the gold market.
Recently, the price of gold has soared and hit new highs, but consumers' enthusiasm for gold has not diminished at all, and consumption and investment are "hot at both ends". Since March, the price of gold jewelry of some leading gold jewelry brands has exceeded 770 yuan/gram, and a number of bank wealth management companies have laid out gold assets in some multi-asset and multi-strategy fixed-income wealth management, and A-share gold concept stocks have collectively strengthened. China's central bank has increased its gold holdings for 17 consecutive months.
On the evening of April 10, after the release of the latest CPI data in the United States, gold and silver prices fell briefly and then fluctuated upward. Xu Yaxin, a senior gold investment analyst, analyzed that although the inflation data exceeded expectations, it was not the main factor driving the current round of gold prices, so the short-term pullback still could not change the long-term upward trend of gold prices for the time being.
Why is gold so hot when the price of gold is rising rapidly? What is the impact on the consumer market and capital market? Is it a good time to start or sell?
Gold brand
Buy up, not buy down, there is no shortage of consumers in the gold market
On April 9, a reporter from Dahe Finance Cube visited a number of shopping malls and gold brand stores and found that although it was not a holiday, consumers who came to consult and buy gold jewelry were still bustling.
"There are more people during the holidays! Many consumers have the mentality of 'buying up but not buying down'. In addition to buying the 'three golds' for weddings, there are also many customers who buy gold bars for investment. A clerk in Zhengzhou Jinduo Yinduo Jewelry Mall told reporters that the price of gold has been rising, and a customer spent more than 1 million yesterday to buy 2 kilograms of gold bars.
A merchant in Zhongyuan Jewelry City said that as the price of gold continued to rise, consumers did not decrease but increased. On the one hand, the gold boom has drawn a lot of attention to this category, and young people have joined the gold buying team, and on the other hand, gold retains its value more than other jewelry.
"This kind of small gram weight gold stud earrings, as well as the pink crystal bracelet of the golden zodiac, plus the process fee, the price is basically within 3,000 yuan, and the price can be affordable. Ms. Wang, a citizen, told reporters that she always felt that gold was expensive in the past, but after a walk, she found that the current gold jewelry has a variety of styles and is very in line with modern aesthetics.
The reporter found that compared with the market price, the price of gold jewelry of well-known gold brands is much higher. Among them, some of the pure gold ornaments of Lao Fengxiang reached 770 yuan/gram, and the total price has exceeded 800 yuan/gram after counting the labor costs.
Lao Fengxiang, a sales staff of a branch in Zhengzhou, said that the gold price of his own brand was 726 yuan/gram on the same day, and the price of ordinary gold jewelry was almost 700 yuan/gram after the discount.
The sales staff of a direct store in Zhengzhou told reporters that the store launched an activity of 80 yuan per gram of gold, and the price was about 619 yuan.
When the reporter asked whether the purchase of gold bars could be hosted, the salesperson said that the store was a directly operated store and had never had a custody business.
In addition to offline business, many gold brands have laid out online platforms. The anchor's skillful words and soft lighting in the live broadcast room make the atmosphere in place, and the price ranges from a few hundred yuan to several thousand yuan. However, unlike other consumer goods, the "precious" nature of gold makes people more cautious when purchasing, and some consumers are discouraged by the inability to feel the weight and texture of the physical object online.
Wholesale market
Nearly 100 orders are booked in a single store, and many gold stores recruit people with no limit on academic qualifications
As the country's largest, highest level of development, the most complete industrial chain of gold and jewelry industry cluster, Shenzhen Shuibei is known as the "barometer" of China's gold jewelry consumption.
On April 9, the reporter of Dahe Finance Cube visited the site and learned that the gold price of Shuibei was 558 yuan/gram that day, and just a week ago, the gold price of Shuibei was still 535 yuan/gram, an increase of 23 yuan in a week.
"Recently, the gold price broke a record high, and at the end of last year, it was only 480 yuan/gram. A clerk in Shuibei Jinzuo said.
A salesperson told reporters that the actual price of gold jewelry with a small number of grams has not risen much, and the price of Shuibei gold is very cost-effective, and there are many Hong Kong customers who come here to buy gold. Especially for the group of "three golds" who are preparing to get married, the Shuibei market is still the first choice.
The reporter visited and saw that there was a circle of consumers in front of the counter of some gold jewelry stores. In order to make it easier for consumers to choose, the clerk will put some gold jewelry "into trays" on the counter, and many of the interior items in trays are half left. The reporter noticed in a store that most of the consumers are old customers "purchasing", familiar with the road to pick up orders, the 4A paper packaging box on the counter is full of customer orders, seven or eight shopping guides are busy making orders, checking shipments.
"We do a full range of gold jewelry, the style is very complete, many of them are popular models, and the store mainly goes wholesale. The clerk of the store said that the recent rapid rise in gold prices has little impact on its sales, and the wholesale channel is still normal and selling.
The gold price of Shuibei refers to the international gold price, and in the form of "basic price + production cost", one gram of gold is more than 100 yuan cheaper than the brand store. The very cost-effective market has attracted many purchasing agents to flock to Shuibei, who shuttle in front of each counter with their mobile phones to compare the styles of jewelry, and then move to the jewelry appraisal center in the market after selection, and get the appraisal certificate and send it directly to the customer. The reporter noticed that on the first floor of Shuibei Jinzuo, a one-stop service process of "purchasing - jewelry testing center - SF mail" has been formed.
It is worth noting that, according to the convention, one or two months after the Spring Festival is often the off-season for gold jewelry sales, but at this time this year, many Shuibei merchants are still vigorously recruiting sales consultants, requiring jewelry aesthetics and regardless of educational background.
Bank
Wealth management subsidiaries deploy "fixed income + gold" products
The gold market is still hot, and the originally "lonely" bank gold accumulation business has also attracted much attention. Since March, a number of banks have also made corresponding adjustments to the precious metals business according to market conditions.
Personal gold accumulation business refers to the liability business in which the bank opens a gold accumulation account for individual customers and records that the individual customer has deposited a certain weight of gold in a certain period of time. During the business processing time specified by the bank, individual customers can purchase gold accumulation shares from the bank by means of regular accumulation or active accumulation and deposit them into the gold accumulation account, and the accumulated shares can choose to redeem or exchange for physical precious metal products.
Recently, Bank of China, China Construction Bank and China Merchants Bank have issued notices on the adjustment of gold account business, raising the starting amount of regular accumulation of personal gold accumulation business to 600 yuan, and extending the service time of gold account business purchase and redemption.
"Some banks have raised the threshold amount of accumulation funds, which is actually a moderate increase in the business threshold, and in fact, it also 'reminds' investors to pay attention to potential volatility risks in the future to a certain extent, which will help the market return to rationality, better implement investor suitability management, and also help avoid potential investment disputes and other problems. Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the financial market department of Everbright Bank, said that gold is currently at a historically high level, and there are still many uncertainties affecting the trend of gold prices, which requires high professionalism for investors.
The reporter noted that with the rise of the gold market, many bank wealth management companies such as CMB Wealth Management, Ping An Wealth Management, Everbright Wealth Management, and Beijing Bank Wealth Management have laid out gold assets in some multi-asset and multi-strategy fixed-income wealth management, and the overall situation is still stable.
Taking CMB Wealth Management as an example, the company has successively launched wealth management products such as target profit and stability gold, gold structured wealth management, etc. In terms of gold investment, the above-mentioned products are mainly invested through gold ETFs and over-the-counter options linked to gold targets.
According to industry insiders, bank wealth management companies have created a "fixed income + gold" product model, which can not only provide high-quality asset allocation supplements, but also resist market risks.
Xu Yaxin, a senior gold investment analyst, reminded that investment needs to focus on the medium and long term, and cannot follow the trend because the market is hot, and different gold wealth management products also have different characteristics and terms, such as maturity date, redemption conditions, fee structure, etc. Investors need to carefully read the product manual, understand the product features and assess their own risk appetite, avoid some problems that may arise in the future, and think twice before entering the market.
capital market
The performance of listed gold companies is promising
With the heat of the gold market, the A-share precious metals sector has also moved. On April 10, gold concept stocks strengthened again in early trading, Laishen Tongling seven boards, Zhongrun Resources, Shenzhen China A, Hunan Silver, Yintai Gold, Zijin Mining, etc. followed suit.
On April 9, Hunan Gold and Yintai Gold successively disclosed their first quarter 2024 performance forecasts, and the two companies are expected to record the highest first-quarter earnings in years.
Specifically, Hunan Gold expects to achieve a net profit attributable to the parent company of 149 million yuan to 170 million yuan in the first quarter, a year-on-year increase of 40% to 60%. As for the main reason for the sharp increase in performance, Hunan Gold said that it was caused by the increase in product prices.
According to Yintai Gold's performance announcement, the company expects the net profit attributable to the parent company in the first quarter of this year to be 480 million yuan to 520 million yuan, an increase of 61.94%-75.43% over the same period last year. The year-on-year increase in net profit was mainly due to the increase in gold and silver prices and the increase in sales volume.
It is worth mentioning that from March 29, 2024 to the close of morning trading on April 10, 2024, Laishen Tongling has gained a total of 7 daily limits. During the continuous daily limit, the stock has risen by 95.03%, and the cumulative turnover rate is 32.81%. The total market value of the latest A-shares reached 3.116 billion yuan, and the circulating market value of A-shares was 3.074 billion yuan.
On the evening of April 9, Laishen Tongling issued an announcement on the abnormal fluctuation of stock trading, and the company's stock trading deviated from the daily closing price increase by more than 20.00% in 2 consecutive trading days from April 8 to April 9, 2024.
According to the analysis of industry insiders, the performance of gold concept stocks is strongly related to the rise and fall of gold prices, and the current strong performance of gold concept stocks may be related to factors such as recent changes in the international situation and rising market risk aversion. For investors, the layout of gold concept stocks in the current environment is an option to seek asset preservation, but it is a high-risk asset, and it is necessary to pay close attention to the volatility risk of the international market and do a good job in risk control and asset allocation.
Gold trend
The subsequent trend will be affected by the mainland's monetary policy
The rise in the price of gold is often the result of the interaction of multiple factors.
The chief economist of Qianhai Open Source Fund said that the main factors for this round of gold price increases include international turmoil, the possible escalation of the situation in the Middle East, and the protracted conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which have affected risk aversion and promoted the rise in gold prices. In the United States, the probability of future interest rate cuts is high in the context of slowing economic growth, and the signal that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will cut interest rates in the second half of the year has also pushed gold prices higher.
According to the Guotai Junan Securities report, the central bank and gold ETFs are the main forces driving the current round of gold market.
According to the World Gold Council, gold as a safe-haven asset has performed well and is the main reason for global central bank purchases, and central bank demand will remain strong in 2024.
The latest data from China's central bank showed gold reserves stood at 72.74 million ounces at the end of March, up 160,000 ounces from 72.58 million ounces at the end of the previous month. From November 2022 to March 2024, the central bank has increased its holdings of gold for 17 consecutive months.
Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, said that gold reserves increased for 17 consecutive months at the end of March, which means that despite the recent rapid rise in international gold prices, the pace of the central bank's increase in holdings remained basically stable, mainly driven by the demand for optimizing the structure of official reserves. Against the backdrop of increased volatility in U.S. bond yields, the central bank of the mainland continued to increase its holdings of gold, which helped to maintain and increase the value of reserve assets.
As gold prices climb, gold-backed ETFs are favored by investors. Flush data shows that as of April 8, the total size of 14 gold ETFs was 41.182 billion yuan, an increase of more than 9 billion yuan from 30.940 billion yuan on March 1.
Flush data shows that as of April 8, the total size of 14 gold ETFs was 41.182 billion yuan, an increase of more than 9 billion yuan from 30.940 billion yuan on March 1. Among them, the scale of Huaan Gold ETF reached 18.663 billion yuan, an increase of 4.279 billion yuan from 14.384 billion yuan on March 1. The scale of Bosera Gold ETF also exceeds 10 billion. In addition, the scale of E Fund Gold ETF and Cathay Gold ETF has also increased.
According to the analysis of Guojin Securities, the stickiness of inflation in the United States continues, and the short-term pricing balance of gold is tilted towards the inflation side. In addition, in 2023, the allocation funds represented by gold ETFs will gradually leave the market, resulting in a sharp divergence between gold prices and ETF holdings, and gold ETF holdings have bottomed out since March this year. With the certainty of the Fed's interest rate cut increasing in 2024, the return of allocation funds may become another driving force for gold prices.
Guotai Junan Securities reported that since November 2022, China's central bank has continued to buy gold, accounting for 60% of the world's central bank net purchases. At the same time, there were net inflows into Chinese gold-backed ETFs, in stark contrast to other countries. The central bank's gold purchases aim to stabilize the exchange rate, while the net inflows of gold-backed ETFs reflect residents' demand for asset allocation. The subsequent trend of gold will be affected by the mainland's monetary policy.
Precious metals industry
The price of gold has not flattened, and the price of silver has risen again
Precious metals continued to rise, and gold and silver entered a "bull market" one after another.
In terms of futures, according to the statistics of the "National Futures Market Transactions in March 2024" of the Mid-term Association, the trading volume of gold in March exceeded 6 million lots, an increase of 22.64% year-on-year and 208.86% month-on-month, and the turnover exceeded 3.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 44.48% year-on-year and 225.20% month-on-month.
As of the close of trading on April 10, Shanghai gold futures reached an intraday high of 560.88 yuan/gram, hitting a new record high. In the past month, Shanghai silver futures have soared 20%. The Shanghai Gold Exchange issued a notice stating that the margin ratio and price limit of silver deferred contracts will be adjusted, and the margin ratio of Ag (T+D) contracts will be adjusted from 10% to 12% from the close of liquidation on April 9, and the price limit will be adjusted from 9% to 11% on the next trading day.
Everbright Futures' latest report pointed out that the gold-silver price ratio is being closely watched by the market, if the market is still optimistic about gold, funds may be diverted to silver, especially in terms of fundamentals, there will still be a certain gap between supply and demand for silver this year, so when gold continues to hit new highs, it will inevitably drive the market's bullish sentiment for silver.
Under the record-breaking market of gold, many domestic and foreign institutions are still optimistic about the trend of gold prices. Bank of America expects gold and silver to rise above $3,000 and $30 over the next 12 months.
In this regard, Xu Yaxin said that $3,000 / ounce is just a price, and from a professional point of view, the bull market is self-explanatory. At present, the traditional experience and pricing model of this round of gold price rise has become ineffective. If you find a similar reference in the history of gold, perhaps in the 70s and 80s of the 20th century, after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, gold soared from $35 / ounce to more than $800 / ounce, which is equivalent to a 22.85-fold increase, and the starting point of this round of gold prices, if assumed to be the low of $1050 / ounce in 2016, then today's price is actually only 2.23 times. The current gold price has repeatedly reached new highs, perhaps creating a new future, and the future is certainly full of infinite possibilities.
Extended reading: Is it easy to buy gold, but difficult to sell gold?
The price of gold has soared, and the topic of "large gold hoarders to realize" has been on the hot search several times. What is the real situation of gold recycling, and what are the formal recycling channels?
The reporter of Dahe Finance Cube found that many businesses in the gold market launched the activity of "exchanging grams for grams", without depreciation costs, and only need to add process fees to replace them. There are also a number of "recycled gold" leaflets in the hall of Shuibei Gold Market.
"Based on the actual gold price changes on the day, we update the gold recycling price daily. The difference between the sales price and the recycling price is about 10 yuan. Recently, as the price of gold has risen, the recycling price has also increased, and more people have sold gold. A clerk in a precious metal recycling shop in Shuibei Market told reporters that if the transaction amount exceeds 20,000 yuan, customers need to sign relevant agreements. At the same time, the gram weight of the recycled jewelry in the store is subject to the gram weight after melting, mainly depending on the gold purity of the jewelry.
The reporter visited a number of jewelry counters in Shuibei Jinzuo, and its sales staff said that gold can be collected in the store. "Pure recycled gold, the price is 12 yuan per gram from the gold price of the day, and 10 yuan per gram is subtracted from the style of jewelry. A clerk told reporters.
"When we recycle gold, we need to check the gold and weigh the grams, which is the most basic. A merchant in the Central Plains Jewelry City told reporters that the depreciation price of gold is basically subtracted from 30 yuan to 60 yuan on the basis of the market price of the day, but the specific amount is subject to the actual quality of gold. Recently, many elderly customers have come to replace gold jewelry, but in the early years, the gold purification technology was not perfect, and the replacement price would be lower.
Even if there is a depreciation price, it is still a "sure" business for consumers who bought gold in the first two years. Ms. Liu told reporters that she had bought 200 grams of gold bars at the bank when the gold price was 400 yuan, and some time ago she sold it at the bank for 480 yuan and earned 16,000 yuan.
"There is no need to worry about the authenticity and purity of gold products sold by banks, so we only recycle gold products sold by banks. The business manager of a large bank said that the bank recycles gold as an agent, and customers need to go to fixed bank outlets with bank cards, gold products, purchase vouchers, etc. The recycling price fluctuates in real time, depending on the pricing of the gold recycling company that the bank cooperates with.
The reporter learned from the on-site visit that banks, gold stores, and gold recycling stores can carry out gold recycling business, but the recycling requirements and prices are different, and consumers need to choose according to their own needs.
Industry insiders remind consumers that when choosing gold recycling channels, they should compare as many as possible to understand the market recycling price range and insist on on-site inspection. At the same time, it is necessary to choose a company or financial institution with formal business qualifications and certificates to ensure the legitimacy of recycling methods and channels, and to keep the transaction vouchers after the transaction is completed in case of future rights protection.
见习编辑:李文玉 | 审校:张翼鹏 | 审核:李震 | 监审:万军伟