Author丨Yuki
Editor丨Tangerine
The price of cocoa, the main ingredient in chocolate products, has soared to a record high, putting considerable cost pressure on companies that produce and sell chocolate products. However, the advantages of foreign chocolate brands in the Chinese market are getting bigger and bigger.
According to the relevant cocoa bean futures index, compared with the price of the same period in 2023, the price of cocoa bean futures in the United States increased by more than 230%, while the price of cocoa bean futures in London increased by 283%, far exceeding the increase in gold prices over the same period. Recently, New York cocoa futures hit a record high of $10,000 per ton for the first time in history.
According to public reports, Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire, two of the world's largest cocoa producers, accounting for 60% of global cocoa production, have suffered a severe decline in cocoa bean production due to the double blow of extreme weather and fruit tree diseases.
According to research firm Barchart, cocoa exports in Côte d'Ivoire alone fell by nearly 32% year-on-year from October 2023 to the end of February 2024, and in Ghana, the figure could hit a new low in the past 14 years. The Economist quoted the Dutch bank ING as predicting that global cocoa production is estimated at 4.5 million tonnes this year, the largest shortfall in nearly a decade.
It is understood that the upstream of the cocoa industry chain is the cocoa fruit planting industry, and the cocoa beans in the cocoa fruit are fermented and dried in the planting area to make finished products; the middle reaches are dealers, and the finished products are generally sold to chocolate processing factories through dealers; and the downstream are chocolate manufacturers, which process cocoa and make cocoa powder, chocolate and other food industry products, which are sold to consumers.
In response, the International Cocoa Organization quoted industry analysts as saying that if the supply situation does not improve, chocolate prices may rise by the end of this year or early 2025, and high cocoa prices are also eroding chocolate producers' profits. At the same time, consumers are likely to start feeling the effects later this year.
In fact, around the world, there are quite a few chocolate producers who are passing on the price of cocoa to consumers by reducing the size of their packages or raising prices. For example, Mars has reduced the size of some chocolate bars, Hershey has launched a Kit Kat with only a partial dip in chocolate, and companies including Nestlé and Mondelēz have taken a direct approach to raising prices.
In addition, data from analytics firm DataWeave shows that the price of chocolate sold in major stores in the United States has increased by almost 15% since the beginning of 2023. In contrast, the price of non-chocolate confectionery increased by only 4% over the same period.
It is worth noting that the changes in the raw material side have been quickly transmitted to the domestic market and have an impact on the competitive situation of the domestic chocolate market.
"Since the beginning of this year, imported cocoa raw materials have become a hot commodity, and a large number of raw materials have been snapped up by corporate buyers as soon as they enter the customs. As for the shortage of cocoa raw materials, a person familiar with the matter described it this way.
In particular, she pointed out that "in this round of competition, foreign chocolate has a clear advantage. ”
Specifically, "on the one hand, the customs entry procedures for cocoa raw materials are very complicated, and there are many inspection links, and foreign-funded enterprises have an innate scale advantage when rushing to buy raw materials; ”
Although there has been an increasing number of voices about chocolate in the Chinese market in recent years, this does not prevent foreign chocolate brands from selling better and better.
Previously, Nei Sanjun exclusively reported that Zhang Suyi, general manager of Ferrero China, said in an open letter, "In the first five months of the new fiscal year, our company has achieved exciting results: sales increased by 20% year-on-year, and product freshness and inventory have remained in a very healthy state. ”
Judging from the feedback from the micro market, a senior practitioner in the confectionery industry revealed to Nei Sanjun, "Ferrero China achieved growth of about 18% in the second quarter (December 2023-February 2024). Before the Spring Festival in 2024, the factory has stopped all shipments, and our gift channels have increased by nearly 3 times. ”
In fact, so far in 2024, the overall growth of the chocolate category in mainland China is relatively optimistic.
"Sold very well. A veteran confectionery distributor commented on the sales of foreign chocolate brands this year.
For example, he said, "Dove, which has the largest market share in the industry, has actually been out of stock before the Spring Festival." In addition, more people familiar with the matter revealed, "Nestle's KitKat chocolate's revenue scale also exceeded 100 million last year." This year, Nestlé plans to make KitKat even bigger. ”
Either based on the hot sales of products, or the rise in cocoa bean prices brings higher production costs, in order to manage these increased costs, some companies have begun to raise prices.
For example, "Ferrero has experienced two price increases last year, and it has not been ventilated this year." However, Lindt has recently requested a price increase. Another industry insider revealed, "In February this year, Hershey has raised the price of some chocolate products. ”
Unfortunately, at the same time, there was a further contraction of the domestic chocolate camp.
In this regard, a senior distributor commented - "Except for some Internet celebrity products, domestic chocolate is negligible, and there is no power to compete with foreign capital." Even a big domestic brand like Golden Monkey is not in the sight of the head players. ”
An industry insider said, "Some of the highlights of traditional domestic chocolate have passed and are beginning to decline." In recent years, the overall performance of the golden monkey is also very flat and unsatisfactory, although the company is also diversifying, but at present, the brand power, product power, channel power, execution and other aspects of domestic traditional chocolate can not match the highly competitive industry situation. ”
It is worth noting that although some traditional domestic chocolate brands are also creating new increments in new channels - for example, replacing "Mai Lisu" with the concept of "milk crispy" in the Douyin channel, and achieving good growth through anchors, this is still not mainstream compared with the huge volume of traditional channels.
"In today's situation, it is difficult for domestic chocolate brands to have a chance to make a comeback," the person said.
In the past few years, the industry generally believes that the growth of foreign brands, which account for 80% of the market, is sluggish, and under the structural opportunity, Chinese chocolate is counterattacking. However, looking at the present, "foreign capital sings all the way, and domestic collectives fail", which may still be a situation that is not easy to reverse in the chocolate field.