Chao News Client Contributing Author Qi Zhongchen Editor Wang Jiangjun
On the evening of 5 April, Ecuadorian military police stormed the Mexican embassy in Ecuador and arrested former Ecuadorian Vice President Jorge Grass. As the incident unfolded, the Mexican government announced the recall of its ambassador to Ecuador and the severance of diplomatic relations with Ecuador.
On the 8th, a lawsuit was filed with the International Court of Justice. UN Secretary-General António Guterres and a number of international organizations such as the European Union and the Organization of American States have also expressed concern over the incident. It is intriguing why the Ecuadorian government instructed the Mexican embassy to enter the Mexican embassy to arrest people, knowing that this move might arouse opposition from public opinion at home and abroad.
Ecuadorian police prepare to enter the Mexican embassy in Ecuador on April 5 in Quito, Ecuador. Source: Xinhua News Agency/AFP
Many countries in the Americas condemned Ecuador
In the immediate aftermath of the incident, the Mexican government issued a statement announcing the severance of diplomatic relations with Ecuador. At this point, relations between the two countries have reached an impasse.
At the same time, there was a fierce debate within the country. Former President Rafael Correa's Civic Revolutionary Party argues that Novoa has not governed the country well, and derids that "Erecador is not a banana estate in Novoa", for which the new president needs to resign.
The incident also had a great impact in the Americas. U.S. State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said the United States opposes any form of violation of the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations. In accordance with international law, Ecuador should fully guarantee the rights of the Mexican Mission in the country.
Colombia, Chile, Argentina and Chile condemned the Ecuadorian Government's disregard for international conventions. The Alliance for Human Rights Development of Dominica, Costa Rica and Panama, as well as the governments of Paraguay, Peru and Uruguay, expressed concern about the incident and called on all parties to respect international conventions and deal with the incident peacefully. For his part, the Minister for Foreign Affairs of Cuba, Bruno Rodríguez, expressed solidarity with the Mexican Government and mentioned that the Cuban mission would leave Ecuador with the Mexican mission. The Nicaraguan government issued a statement saying that it would sever diplomatic relations with Ecuador, firmly opposing and condemning the "flagrant violation of international law" by the Nicaraguan government. The Secretary-General of the Organization of American States, Luis Almagro, urged the two sides to engage in dialogue and said that a meeting of the Permanent Council of the Organization of American States should be convened to resolve the dispute.
Mexico's contradictions with Ecuador have been in existence for a week ago. On April 3, Mexican President Andrés Manuel López López López Manuel López López Manuel López L He compared similar incidents in Mexico and Eritrea, and commented in particular on the assassination of Ecuador's presidential candidate, Fernando Villavicencio, whose opponent Luisa González was considered by the media to be involved in the assassination, which led to the party's defeat in the general election.
López's remarks sparked strong dissatisfaction with the new Ecuadorian government, which issued a statement saying that Mexico's ambassador to Ecuador, Smek, was "persona non grata" and asked him to leave Ecuador in the short term. Relations between the Mexican government took a turn for the worse after the Mexican government announced the recall of its ambassador to Ecuador and granted political asylum to former Ecuadorian Vice President Glas.
Police take stock of cocaine ready for destruction at an undisclosed location in Ecuador on January 25, 2024. Source: Xinhua News Agency
The arrest was a great deterrent to hostile forces in Ecuador
Looking back at the reasons for this incident, on the one hand, it can be attributed to the factional struggle between the left and right parties in Ecuador. The new president, Noboa, belongs to the right-wing government, while former Vice President Glass is the right-hand man of the Correa government and a representative of left-wing ideas. Because of the influence of the left-wing government in Ecuador, the left-wing forces are a huge obstacle to the reforms that the right-wing government in Noboa wants to implement. And the new president has not ruled out using the Glass corruption case as an opportunity to clear the remnants of the left wing of his government's reform program.
On the other hand, due to the war of words between Mexico and Eritrea, the new government may also hope to take this opportunity to play the role of "killing chickens and monkeys" in the name of "domestic affairs" and prevent external forces, especially opposition forces, from influencing the new government, so as to consolidate its position in the country. And after this incident, Noboa did gain a lot of support within Congress, reinforcing the image of the individual as "guilty must be punished".
On January 8, a drug lord escaped from prison and rioted in several prisons in Ecuador, and the country entered a 60-day state of emergency. The next day, Noboa declared a state of "internal armed conflict" in response to vicious incidents such as attacks on public facilities by armed men. On March 7, the national state of emergency was extended for 30 days. In the early hours of April 8, following the events of 5 April, the Ecuadorian Presidency issued a proclamation announcing the end of the national state of emergency. However, the state of "internal armed conflict" will continue due to the presence of hostile organized armed groups in Ecuador.
At present, it seems that this operation has a great deterrent effect on domestic hostile forces, especially drug trafficking groups. Drug cartels have had a huge impact on Ecuador's politics and society. Former President Correa also pointed out that during his presidency, Mexican drug cartels tried to infiltrate the country's security apparatus. Drug traffickers often use the US dollar for money laundering and other operations, and due to the dollarization of the Ecuadorian economy, it is easier for drug trafficking groups to have a substantial impact on Ecuador.
However, it is undeniable that the arrest did have a certain influence on drug cartels and hostile forces, but there is no clear evidence that the Noboa government chose this operation specifically in response to the civil unrest in January.
The third largest hydropower station in Ecuador was built by Harbin Electric Power Group. Source: Harbin Electric Group
China's projects in Eritrea are basically running smoothly and normally
In this case, the verbal exchange between Mexico and Eritrea can only be seen as the fuse of the incident, but it does not directly prove that the action was only caused by the President of Eritrea's desire to use the incident to warn Mexico to stop interfering in its internal affairs.
In the contemporary international political environment, it is unlikely that any sovereign state would so directly violate international law and invade the embassies and consulates of other countries. In addition, the new government of Ecuador itself is facing huge obstacles such as domestic economic reforms. In the case that the internal worries have not been resolved, it is unlikely that they will seek "external troubles" again.
But the Noboa government, as a right-wing party, can be called a traditional ally of the United States. In the past period, the United States has reduced its control over the Americas due to the increase in the number of countries in which left-wing parties are in power. The United States has always wanted the opportunity to defend its backyard. In addition, the United States has recently held high the banner of "democracy" in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, asking its allies to continue to support Ukraine, and its blind connivance with Israel in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, which has made the United States itself fall into the whirlpool of public opinion around the world. It cannot be ruled out that the United States has instructed the Ecuadorian government to create a new focus of public opinion in order to divert global attention from the focus. However, it remains to be seen whether there is an external push behind this, or whether it is just the work of the Eritrean government on its own.
From the general elections in Ecuador, to the riots in the capital in January, to the invasion of the Mexican embassy on April 5, the security situation in Ecuador, especially in the capital region, is not optimistic. However, so far, apart from the possible security risks, there have been no attacks or invasions against Chinese citizens, overseas Chinese or Chinese-funded enterprises. It is understood that so far, the operation of China's various projects in Eritrea has been basically stable and normal. Under the guidance of the embassy and consulates, Chinese enterprises are also paying close attention to the local security situation, further implementing security measures, and formulating emergency plans in advance.
(The author, Qi Zhongchen, is a lecturer at the Institute of Western Languages and Cultures, Zhejiang University of Foreign Chinese, and a researcher at the Institute of Latin American Studies)
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