[Text/Observer Network Columnist Hu Yukun]
On April 5, Ecuadorian security forces drove armored vehicles into the Mexican Embassy in Ecuador and arrested former Ecuadorian Vice President Jorge Grass, who was in the embassy and had been granted political asylum by the Mexican government, triggering a rare diplomatic storm in Latin American countries: Mexico announced the severance of diplomatic relations with Ecuador on the same day, Nicaragua immediately followed up the next day, and Bolivia recalled its ambassador to Ecuador on the third day.
The former vice president involved in the case was naturally the trigger for the arrest of Glass despite accusations of violating international conventions, but the tensions between Ecuador and Mexico and the changes in the domestic situation in Ecuador are far from new. Eritrean President Daniel Noboa, who has been in office for less than half a year, has taken a seemingly single-handed approach precisely because the reasons behind it and its impact on the country and Latin America are not as straightforward as imagined.
On April 5, 2024 local time, in Quito, Ecuador, Ecuadorian police special forces entered the Mexican Embassy in Quito (Photo source: The Paper)
The judicial and political controversy behind the "robbery".
The focal point of the diplomatic dispute between Ecuador and Mexico is former Ecuadorian Vice President Glas. Before entering the Mexican embassy in the capital, Quito, last December, he had already lost his post as vice president on aggravated charges of bribery, misuse of public funds, and illegal association, and was sentenced three times to prison in prison and deprived of political rights for 25 years. During this period, Glass was released on bail in November 2022 and exempted from serving his sentence in prison, on condition that he was not allowed to leave the country until the end of his sentence, based on "violations of legal protections" and his health condition.
According to the reasons of the Government and the judiciary, the crimes committed by Glass while serving as a senior public official were sufficiently serious. The 2017 conviction and loss of office during the vice presidency began with the corruption case of Brazilian construction giant Odebrecht S.A., which shook Latin American politics and caused a series of "earthquakes" in the region: according to its guilty plea to the U.S. federal court, the company paid a total of $788 million in bribes to presidents, former presidents, and senior government officials of 12 Latin American and African countries to obtain construction contracts.
Former Peruvian President Toledo and Humala, Brazil's current President Lula, Colombian President Santos, former Panamanian President Ricardo Martinelli and his family, several members of the government of former Argentine President Cristina and then Brazilian President Temer were all involved to varying degrees, and many people were wanted and imprisoned. In Ecuador, Glass became the highest-ranking official in Latin America to be convicted for accepting bribes of more than $13.5 million.
Corruption scandals have undermined the credibility of Latin American governments, which has led to political turmoil in the run-off election. Grass, a former subordinate of former Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa, was relied on in the context of the "pink wave" in Latin America with the rise to power of Correa, a representative of the left, and successively served as Minister of Telecommunications and Information Society, Minister of Strategic Coordination, and Vice President. As the country plunged into an economic crisis and a corruption scandal erupted in the political arena, Correa left office, and his old partner (the "Sovereign Fatherland Alliance") and successor President Lenín Moreno not only made a rapid "rightward turn" in governance, but also carried out a judicial liquidation of the corruption of senior officials in the former Correa camp.
As a result, not only did Glass be sentenced to an increased sentence and deprived of future political opportunities for accumulated corruption and misuse of public funds, but Correa himself was also sentenced to eight years in prison in April 2020 for aggravated passive bribery. In response, both Correa and Glass pleaded not guilty, viewing the judicial decision as a "political frame-up" with impure motives. In fact, Glass's subsequent access to the Mexican embassy in Eritrea for four months and the granting of political asylum are in itself a reflection of the political game behind the issue of justice.
As far as the domestic situation in Ecuador is concerned, since 2016, Ecuador has changed from the "island of peace" with the lowest crime rate in Latin America to a "crime hub" even worse than Mexico, violent crime has intensified, the national order has been paralyzed, and the two presidents Moreno and Guillermo Lasso have tried their best to prevent the rapid loss of their political credibility, and economic reform, security maintenance, and the fight against drug crime have been frequently blocked. After losing the constitutional referendum last year and impeaching members of the opposition in Congress, then-President Lasso was finally forced to dissolve Congress and call early presidential and parliamentary elections, which led to the rise of 36-year-old center-right incumbent President Noboa, the youngest democratically elected president in Ecuadorian history.
However, the young president, who took office with high popularity (74% satisfaction rating in opinion polls and a maximum of 85%), has not been able to stop the recent resurgence of violent crime, and the series of violent assassinations during last year's election campaign has only started a new round of diplomatic friction between Ecuador and Mexico.
From July 23 to August 14 last year, the mayor of Manta, Augustín Intriago, presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio, and the local leader of the Civic Revolutionary Party, Pedro Briones, were shot and killed in Manta, Quito, and San Mateo, respectively.
On April 3, Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, a leading figure on the left in Latin America, "revisited the past," suggesting that after Villavicencio's murder in August last year, some media outlets in Etherea "unjustly" identified Luisa González, the candidate of the Civic Revolutionary Party (a left-wing party that supports Correa), as involved in the incident, thus influencing the election results, leading to her defeat to Noboa in the second round of voting.
Data map: Mexican President López López (Image source: The Paper)
López's words opened the "Pandora's box" of diplomatic crises between Eritrea and Mexico: First, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Eritrea issued a communiqué that Lópezre's remarks interfered in Eritrea's internal affairs and violated the "Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations," and declared Mexican Ambassador to Eritrea Smeek "persona non grata"; then the Mexican government changed its original attitude and suddenly announced that it would officially provide political asylum to Grasse (after the Mexican side refused to enter the embassy of Eritrea to arrest Glass, but did not promise to agree to his request for asylum); The provisions of the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations require that people be arrested directly by breaking into the Mexican embassy.
From Mexico's first attack to Ecuador's direct "turning the table", the more far-reaching reasons are obviously not around one Grass, but the traditional ideological dispute in Latin America. Mexico, with its deep roots in the left, has a long tradition of providing political asylum, especially in the past century, which has repeatedly served as a refuge for leftists in Iberia and Latin America. In the past two years, the "pink wave" in Latin America has been countered by the right and even the extreme right, and Mexico, which is in power on the left, has become more determined in its diplomatic concept of actively sheltering and supporting the left-wing forces in Latin American countries.
Grasse was a key member of the left-wing ruling team in Eritrea, and was imprisoned in the era of "betrayal" (i.e., Moreno) and center-right in power, so the Mexican government's assessment of this is that after the resurgence of the right-wing forces in Eritrea, the law was used as a tool to persecute Grass. Therefore, just as it sheltered former Bolivian President Evo Morales in 2019, helped the family of former Peruvian President Castillo take refuge in 2022, and sheltered important members and relatives of former President Correa as much as possible, the López government once again made a decision to protect the "left allies" based on the logic and judgment of "the left and right wings fighting each other".
Once both sides continue to strengthen the logic of ideological and political struggle, it is only natural that a "robbery" operation will lead to such a rare diplomatic incident as "encroaching on the residence of a diplomatic mission" and even to the International Court of Justice.
Fermenting diplomatic turmoil, complex potential implications
Grasse is currently being transferred to a highest-security prison in Guayaquil, but he went on a hunger strike and was transferred to a local naval hospital 24 hours later due to "possible disorders" in his health.
In addition to the internal struggles of the Correa camp and its supporters, the Ecuadorian government is also facing diplomatic pressure: not only Mexico and Nicaragua, which have already announced the severance of diplomatic relations with Ecuador, but also other Latin American governments, regardless of the right and left, have unanimously condemned the Ecuadorian government's forced invasion of the Mexican embassy; the United States, the European Union, the Organization of American States, and the United Nations have also stressed the need to abide by the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations and called on the two countries to settle their disputes by peaceful means.
On April 9, after all diplomats from the embassy in Eritrea returned home, Mexico's Ministry of Foreign Affairs released the latest surveillance footage of the "unauthorized and violent incursion" of the Ecuadorian security forces on the day of the incident. In the video, the Eritrean security forces climbed over the guardrail with guns, forced their way through the gate, pointed a gun at Roberto Canseco, the Chargé d'affaires of the Mexican Embassy, who was trying to stop him, and even pushed the unrelenting Mexican diplomat in Eritrea to the ground outside the embassy when the Ecuadorian side took Grass. The publication of these violent images has undoubtedly aroused more sympathy and support from the international community, and is also evidence that Mexico has resorted to the International Court of Justice to further exert pressure on the Eritrean government.
On April 9, Mexican President Andrés López López played a surveillance video of the Ecuadorian police breaking into the embassy at a press conference (Image source: CCTV International News Weibo video screenshot)
But even though they have been called "fascists" by radical protesters, the governments of Noboa and Ecuador have not given lip service to it. Following Glass's arrest, the Ecuadorian government accused Mexico of abusing the immunity and privileges of the diplomatic corps because it was "illegal" to grant asylum to people indicted or convicted by the courts. Previously, the Ecuadorian government had applied to the Mexican side to enter the embassy to carry out the arrest, but it never obtained the consent of the Mexican side, and the Mexican government's final asylum decision was regarded by the Mexican government as a violation of national sovereignty and dignity - this was regarded as a justification for the Ecuadorian government's coercive action.
The confidence of the Eritrean government boils down to the fact that its decisions are not as reckless as they seem, and their potential impact is not one-sided and harmful. In fact, as far as the domestic situation is concerned, Noboa's move will not only not affect the credibility of his government, but may "add points" to his own politics, so such a risk is worth a try for him. In this regard, the US "New York Times" put it bluntly: the diplomatic friction between Eruganda and Mexico may be exactly what he (Noboa) needs.
The New York Times published an article on April 7: This diplomatic dispute will enhance Ecuadorian President Noboa's "political fortune" (Image source: Screenshot of "The New York Times")
To understand the current government of Noboa in Ecuador, it is necessary to understand a few basic facts:
First, Noboa has not yet begun his own independent presidential term, but is at the stage of completing the remainder of former President Lasso's term after early elections, which is effectively no different from "acting president" (except for the difference of being elected) – which means that this presidency will end in May next year, leaving him with just over a year to fight for re-election.
On April 21, Ecuador will hold a constitutional referendum to decide whether to pass the 11 constitutional amendments proposed by Noboa; since its election campaign, Noboa has set the goal of fighting violence and corruption, and its constitutional amendment plan includes increasing the prison punishment for violent crimes, and strengthening the military's presence and role in legal suppression of violence; because the constitutional amendment plan was blocked by the Constitutional Court of Ecuador in January this year, this referendum is very important for Noboa, which can be said to be a vote of confidence in him. At stake is his prospects for re-election next year.
It can be seen that it is precisely because the repeated gang violence is difficult to curb in the short term (for example, there were 137 homicides in Esterea during the Easter holiday alone), which has affected Noboa's super popularity. Next year's general election is not far off, and the Citizen Revolutionary Party, founded by Correa, has a strong voice and has a great tendency to make a comeback. In this case, Noboa's best response strategy is to continue to strengthen its image of a consistent fight against violence and anti-corruption – insisting on arresting Glass will send such a message to the outside world, and it can also use the law as a weapon to continue to liquidate the powerful opponents of the left-wing Correa camp and weaken its ability to compete with itself, which can be described as "killing two birds with one stone".
The reaction of the people in Ecuador to the diplomatic turmoil also proves this. Unlike the international community's one-sided condemnation or opposition, many ordinary Ecuadorians have expressed their support for Noboa's arrest. In Guayaquil, the largest city with the worst violent crime in Ecuador, local residents criticized "Mexico for fooling Ecuadorians and providing shelter to all Ecuadorian criminals".
Of course, there are also voices of strong opposition, such as "this move is just a product of the president's own 'rich boy vanity'". More ordinary people have a more mixed attitude: on the one hand, they believe that Grasse, who is highly corrupt, should go to jail, and on the other hand, they are worried that the diplomatic friction between Mexico and Erita will affect their daily lives, after all, tens of thousands of Ecuadorians are entering the United States through Mexico every year, and transnational crime is a major unsettling factor affecting both countries, and the surge in violent crime by Ecuador's gangs is indispensable for the active activities of Mexican drug lords in the country.
Protesters protest outside the detention center of the local prosecutor's office where former Ecuadorian Vice President Jorge Grasse is being held in Quito, Ecuador, April 6, 2024 local time (Photo source: The Paper)
If the "double-edged sword" effect of this move at home has given Novoa the confidence to gamble, then in terms of diplomatic and Latin American impact, even if the Ecuadorian government forcibly "robs people", the actual consequences may not be much worse than "restraint and patience". The worst-case scenario is "nothing more than that", and this judgment is another basis for the Eritrean government to dare to take action.
Mexican President Andrés López's subsequent dissatisfaction with the United States and Canada is a testament to this: "We are neighbors. But their position is very unclear. In his view, the statements made by the US and Canadian governments on this diplomatic incident are tepid and ambiguous, and this precisely reflects the basic attitude of most countries and international organizations towards this diplomatic turmoil -- in words, they oppose and condemn Ecuador based on the position of upholding international diplomatic conventions; in action, they do not take any intervention or severe sanctions that "add fuel to the fire", but call for a negotiated solution and a small matter.
Specific to Latin America, there are also a few countries that directly sever diplomatic relations or recall their ambassadors. At the call and convening of Bolivia and Colombia, the Organization of American States (OAS) chose to convene a meeting in Washington on 10 April to discuss "violations of the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations", with the aim of bringing about a solution through dialogue between the two countries. But regardless of the outcome of the negotiations, Glass is now under the control of the Eritrean government, and the diplomatic turmoil has not caused further harm to the country, but Noboa has achieved its political goals.
As for the exacerbation of political polarization and left-right confrontation in Latin America, it is of course a predictable trend. However, in terms of relevance, the two are actually "mutual cause and effect" - due to the logic of political polarization and left-right opposition, Mexico and Ecuador began a series of diplomatic offensive and defensive battles, which led to this incident, and in turn, this incident also played a role in "adding fuel to the fire" for the escalation of ideological and political struggles between Latin American countries and political parties.
In this sense, even without this incident, it would have been difficult for different Latin American countries, left and right camps, to put aside their differences and move towards unity. At the end of 2022, López did not approve of Peru's impeachment of then-President Castillo and denied the legitimacy of his successor President Dina Boluarte;
In fact, on the other hand, Ecuador's forced invasion of the Mexican embassy and the "crisis of severing diplomatic relations" just tested whether Latin American countries with many differences still have a "common bottom line", and the response of most countries should give the answer in the affirmative: the Argentine government did not "pull the string" because of its ideological proximity with the Ecuadorian government, and condemned it like Cuba, Colombia and other left-wing ruling countries; International diplomatic conventions cannot be violated, and resolving disputes through dialogue is the right way.
From a macro point of view, there will be no fundamental change in the "pink wave" and "right-wing resurgence" that have come and gone in Latin America, and it is unrealistic to expect "monolithic" unity. However, if the diplomatic conflict between Eritrea and Mexico can be properly resolved, and Latin American governments can consolidate the "bottom-line consensus" while retaining but putting aside their differences, perhaps the most valuable value of this rare regional diplomatic incident.
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