Israel's recent series of tough actions have triggered a joint Iranian-Iraqi counterattack, but the United States has shown rare restraint in the face of its allies' deep troubles, and has been slow to come to the rescue. This situation not only highlights the complex changes in the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East, but also reveals the subtle adjustments and strategic considerations of US foreign policy.
Background: Israel has made frequent moves, and the situation in the region has heated up suddenly
Israel has significantly intensified its strikes against Iran and pro-Iranian militant groups in recent months, including multiple airstrikes on nuclear facilities and military bases in Iran, as well as targeted removal of pro-Iranian targets in Syria, Iraq, and elsewhere. Behind its actions are deep concerns about Iran's nuclear program and alarm about the deterioration of its own security environment. However, the move undoubtedly exacerbated the state of hostilities with Iran, prompting the latter and its allies to take countermeasures.
Progress of events: Iran and Iraq have joined forces to counterattack, and the pressure on Israel has doubled
Iran responded decisively with military action when diplomatic protests were ineffective. Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps reportedly used long-range missiles to carry out precision strikes on sensitive targets in Israel, causing a certain degree of damage and casualties. At the same time, Shiite militias in Iraq have launched attacks on the Israeli embassy in Iraq, demonstrating the ability of the two countries to work together in response to the Israeli threat. This series of retaliatory actions has left Israel facing its most serious security challenge since the escalation of the conflict.
The U.S. attitude is remarkable: keep your distance and wait and see
In the face of Israel's predicament, the US Government has not been as quick to express its firm support as usual, let alone seen any signs of substantial military assistance. A White House spokesman said the United States is closely monitoring developments and calling on all parties to remain calm and resolve the dispute through diplomatic means. Although the U.S. military has stepped up its alert in the Middle East, it has not publicly announced plans to provide direct military support to Israel. This unusual posture of "sitting on the sidelines" has sparked widespread speculation at home and abroad.
U.S. policy shifts and strategic considerations
The U.S. response to Israel's attack may have been driven by the following considerations:
1. Avoid a head-on conflict with Iran: The United States understands that the consequences of a full-scale war with Iran are extremely serious, especially at a time when the global economy is weak and energy markets are volatile, and the United States is unwilling to take the economic, political, and even military risks that come with it.
2. Strategic Rebalancing in the Middle East: With the advancement of the U.S. "pivot to the Asia-Pacific" strategy, the Middle East's position in the U.S. global strategy has declined. Washington may believe that a modest reduction in immediate support for individual allies would help it demonstrate its strategic flexibility and avoid excessive involvement in regional conflicts.
3. Internal political factors: The domestic political climate in the United States is divided, and public fatigue with long-term military intervention abroad is rising. The Biden administration faces a more complicated congressional situation after the midterm elections, at a time when large-scale involvement in the Middle East conflict threatens to provoke domestic opposition.
4. Complicating international relations: While maintaining close relations with Israel, the United States also needs to consider the balance of its relations with other Middle Eastern partners such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, as well as the intertwining interests of major powers such as Russia and China in the Middle East. Excessive favoritism towards Israel could damage these delicate relationships.