Overview of China's Base Metals Production in March 2024
Electrolytic copper
SMM China's electrolytic copper output in March was 999,500 tons, an increase of 49,200 tons month-on-month, an increase of 5.18%, an increase of 5.06% year-on-year, and an increase of 29,300 tons from the expected 970,200 tons. The cumulative output from January to March was 2.9196 million tons, an increase of 207,100 tons or 7.64% year-on-year.
There are several reasons for the month-on-month increase in output in March: 1. In March, many smelters had a good start and asked to increase horsepower production, and the number of production days also increased compared with February; 2. The two smelters put into operation at the end of last year continued to release output; 3. Although the copper concentrate processing fee continued to decline (as of March 29, the SMM imported copper concentrate index (weekly) was reported at 6.38 US dollars / ton, down 4.25 US dollars / ton from the previous period, and continued to refresh the new low in recent years. If the smelter purchases spot copper concentrate to produce, the current loss of 1745 yuan/ton continues to expand, if the smelter uses long single copper concentrate to produce, the current profit is 1299 yuan/ton, an increase of 381 yuan/ton from the previous month, the reason for the expansion of profit is the recent rise in domestic sulfuric acid prices), but the rise in the price of by-products sulfuric acid, gold and silver has made up for the loss to a certain extent. 4. In March, the sharp rise in copper prices widened the price gap between refined scrap and increased the supply of blister copper and anode copper (as of April 3, SMM Southern Domestic Blister Copper Processing Fee was reported at 1050 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from the previous month), and smelters can purchase more raw materials without reducing production due to the shortage of copper concentrate. To sum up, we believe that the overall operating rate of the electrolytic copper industry in March was 88%, an increase of 4.2 percentage points month-on-month.
According to our current survey, there will be 7 smelters to overhaul in April, involving 1.21 million tons of crude refining capacity, which is the main reason for the decline in output in April. In addition, although the current supply of blister copper and anode plates is more abundant than before, it is still difficult to fully cover the shortfall, and we understand that there are still four smelters that are currently affected by the tight supply of copper concentrate, which has led to significant production reductions.
SMM expects the domestic electrolytic copper output in April to be 965,000 tons, down 34,500 tons month-on-month, or 3.45%, and down 0.52% year-on-year. The cumulative output from January to April is expected to be 3.8846 million tons, an increase of 5.49% year-on-year, an increase of 202,100 tons. In addition, there are still a large number of smelters to be overhauled in May and June, and domestic production is expected to decline in the next two months.
Electrolytic aluminum
According to SMM statistics, in March 2024 (31 days), the domestic electrolytic aluminum output was 3.555 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.19%. In March, the average daily output of the domestic electrolytic aluminum industry remained stable at around 114,900 tons month-on-month. The impact of the Spring Festival dissipated in March, and the production and shipment of electrolytic aluminum plants returned to normal, resulting in a month-on-month increase of 9.6 percentage points in the proportion of molten aluminum in the industry in March, and a year-on-year increase of 1.4 percentage points to about 73.88%. According to the calculation of the proportion of SMM molten aluminum, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot volume in March decreased by 6.16% year-on-year to around 928,600 tons.
Production capacity changes: In March, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity increased slightly month-on-month, of which the first batch of resumption of production in Yunnan was launched in the month, and the electrolytic aluminum operating capacity in Yunnan reached 4.74 million tons/year, an increase of 5.57% month-on-month. In terms of production reduction: in March, an aluminum plant in Mongolia suddenly suffered a power outage, resulting in the suspension of the aluminum plant, and there are still 40,000 tons of production capacity to be overhauled to be resumed, and an electrolytic aluminum plant in Sichuan was suspended for maintenance at the end of the month until September, affecting the operating capacity of more than 60,000 tons. As of the end of March, SMM statistics showed that the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity was about 45.19 million tons, and the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 42.1 million tons, and the industry operating rate increased by 4.39 percentage points year-on-year to 93.15%.
Production forecast: Entering April 2024, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity will continue to rise, mainly because the first batch of resumption of production released in Yunnan is still being implemented, and the current performance of Yunnan water is good, and other production capacity to be resumed in the province still needs to pay attention to whether there is a possibility of resumption of production. SMM expects the first batch of resumption of production in Yunnan in the middle of April or reached production, which has a certain contribution to the output in April, and there is no major change in other regions, SMM expects that the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity will increase by about 250,000 tons month-on-month to 42.35 million tons at the end of April, and the output in April (30 days) may reach about 3.49 million tons, and the proportion of molten aluminum in the industry will remain above 70%.
alumina
SMM data showed that China's metallurgical-grade alumina output in March (31 days) was 6.782 million tons, with an average daily output of 2,200 tons/day increasing month-on-month to 218,800 tons/day. Total output in March increased by 7.98% month-on-month and 2.11% year-on-year. As of the end of March, China's completed alumina production capacity was 1000000 tons, the operating capacity was 79.96 million tons, and the national operating rate was 80.0%. In terms of regions, in Shanxi, the operating rate of the province in March was 70.2%, an increase of 2.2% from February, mainly due to the fact that a type of alumina plant in Shanxi stopped production at the end of 2023 due to insufficient ore supply, and resumed production in mid-March, involving an annual production capacity of 1.1 million tons, in addition, an alumina plant in Shanxi decreased by about 400,000 tons due to the adjustment of the production capacity recovery cycle in late March, and the subsequent production capacity recovery depends on the ore supply and production line adjustment progress. In Henan, the operating rate of the province in March was 66.4%, up 9.4% from the previous month, mainly due to the reduction of production of some local alumina plants due to insufficient ore supply in the early stage, and the capacity utilization rate has been improved by supplementing imported ores recently, involving a total increase of about 900,000 tons of operating capacity. In Guizhou, individual alumina plants stopped production in early February, involving an annual production capacity of 600,000 tons, according to SMM research, the plant has resumed production in mid-March, as of the end of March, the plant's operating capacity slowly climbed to about 200,000 tons, and an alumina plant in Guizhou began to carry out routine roasting and maintenance on March 25, the maintenance cycle is 12 days, and the output during the maintenance is halved, during which the output is affected by about 26,000 tons, and the overall operating rate of Guizhou Province in March rose slightly by 1.3% to 76.5% month-on-month; The overall production of alumina in Hebei in March was stable, and the operating rate remained at 90.8%; in Guangxi, the operating rate in March increased slightly by 2.1% to 84.4% compared with January, and in March, individual enterprises in Guangxi due to ore supply problems resumed 500,000 tons of operating capacity, and the natural gas transmission pipeline failure of an alumina plant in Guangxi was completely stopped on March 26, and the initial maintenance cycle is expected to be 3-5 days, during which the output will affect about 24,000 tons. In Shandong, the operating rate of the province in March decreased slightly by 3.1% to 92.7% compared with February, mainly due to the technical transformation of a large alumina plant in Shandong, and some roasters will be shut down for maintenance in turn from March 15 to May 15, during which the total output may be reduced by about 80,000 tons. Next month's forecast: according to SMM research, Jinyu mine has not yet come out of the exact resumption plan, the overall resumption of production progress of alumina enterprises in Shanxi is slow, and the operating rate of enterprises relying on imported ore to supplement production has fluctuated greatly in the near future. The alumina plant in Guizhou that underwent maintenance in late March is expected to resume normal production in early April, and there are still about 400,000 tons of production capacity to be restored in Guizhou; an alumina plant in Guangxi stopped roasting production in early April due to insufficient stability of ore supply, and the shutdown cycle is expected to be about 12 days, and the company previously operated a production capacity of 500,000 tons, in addition, an alumina plant in Guangxi plans to end maintenance in early April, and the operating capacity will be restored to 2.2 million tons. Therefore, SMM expects the average daily output in April 2024 to be 221,800 tons/day, and the total operating capacity will be about 80.96 million tons, an increase of 1.84% year-on-year.
Overseas electrolytic aluminum
According to SMM statistics, overseas electrolytic aluminum production in March (31 days) was 2.529 million tons, a slight increase of about 0.1% year-on-year. In March, the average capacity utilization rate of overseas electrolytic aluminum was about 87.5%, a slight decrease of 0.1% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 1.2%. From January to March 2024, the cumulative output of overseas electrolytic aluminum was 7.436 million tons, up about 0.2% year-on-year.
By region, production in North America fell 1.7% y/y to 330,000 mt in March due to the shutdown of the New Madrid plant in the U.S. The plant announced a shutdown in January 2024, and SMM estimates that it should have been completely shut down by the end of March. In South America, production rose 5.4% year-on-year to 121,000 tonnes as Alcoa's Alumar aluminium plant was in a slower restart process since April 2022. SMM estimates that capacity utilization at the plant was back to around 65% by the end of March. Russia's total electrolytic aluminium production rose 2.2% year-on-year to 349,000 mt due to the reopening of UC RUSAL's Taishet plant. According to SMM, the Taishet plant produced about 16,000 tons in March, and the capacity utilization rate was about 44%. In Europe, excluding Russia, production in Germany fell 2.4% year-on-year to 315,000 mt due to the shutdown of the Neuss plant in Germany. Smelters in other regions are operating steadily, especially in India. India's electrolytic aluminum output in March was 349,000 tons, up 1.6% year-on-year.
Primary lead
In March 2024, the national output of electrolytic lead was 293,700 tons, up 6.38% month-on-month and down 9.13% year-on-year. The cumulative volume from January to March 2024 fell by 3.3% year-on-year. In 2024, the total production capacity of the enterprises involved in the survey will be 6,006,300 tons.
According to the survey, the impact of the Spring Festival holiday in March was alleviated, and March (natural month) was 31 days higher than that in February, most lead smelting enterprises increased their output homeopathically, and at the same time, lead smelting enterprises in Hunan, Yunnan, Henan, Guangdong and other regions have ended maintenance, giving a large increase in electrolytic lead production in March. Even if some smelters in Hunan, Liaoning and other regions added new maintenance plans during the period, or some smelters due to insufficient supply of lead concentrate, the actual production was less than the planned amount, it still did not affect the growth trend of electrolytic lead production in the month.
Looking forward to April, the maintenance and recovery of electrolytic lead smelting enterprises coexist. The main maintenance enterprises are concentrated in Henan, and they are large-scale smelting enterprises, and the maintenance time of their crude lead systems ranges from 15 to 40 days, while the impact of electrolytic lead production lines is limited. At the same time, the smelting enterprises in Hunan are recovering intensively, which will bring an increase of more than 10,000 tons. In addition, the domestic lead concentrate supply pattern has not changed, and the lead concentrate processing fee has been lowered again, such as SMMPb50 domestic TC quotation of 600-900 yuan/metal ton, down 50 yuan/metal ton compared with March, which is a low silver and lead concentrate processing fee level, and the high silver and lead concentrate market has zero processing fee, or even negative processing fee. Ingot end overhaul and recovery are parallel, while mine end supply is limited. Overall, SMM expects electrolytic lead production to rise only slightly to 297,000 tonnes in April.
Regeneration 铅
In March 2024, the output of recycled lead was 378,100 tons, an increase of 78.94% month-on-month and 0.45% year-on-year, and the cumulative output of recycled lead from January to March 2024 was 908,500 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9.59%. In March 2024, the output of recycled refined lead was 330,000 tons, an increase of 91.18% month-on-month and 0.91% year-on-year, and the cumulative output of recycled refined lead from January to March 2024 was 774,300 tons, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 11.32%.
According to SMM research, since November 2023, the production of recycled refined lead has maintained a downward trend, and as of February 2024, it has fallen by about 220,000 tons, mainly due to the high cost and low profit of recycled lead refineries. In mid-to-late February, lead prices fluctuated in a narrow range below Wanliu, and the recycled lead refineries that stopped production during the Spring Festival waited and saw the market, and the resumption of production was postponed to March. In March 2024, the focus of lead price operation shifted upward, and at the end of the month, the main Shanghai lead 2405 contract rose to a 3-month high;
Entering April, the traditional off-season of lead-acid batteries is coming, the replacement of waste batteries is declining, the raw materials of recycled lead refineries are gradually tightened, the procurement costs are rising, and the profit margins are narrowing or the losses are expanding. Some large-scale recycled lead refineries plan to stop production for maintenance in late April, and some refineries said they are willing to reduce production in April, but due to the large number of large-scale refineries resuming production in mid-to-late March, the output of recycled refined lead will still increase due to the normal ramp-up in April, and SMM expects the output of recycled refined lead to an increase of 32,500 tons in April.
Refined zinc
In March 2024, SMM China's refined zinc output was 525,500 tons, an increase of 23,000 tons or 4.57% month-on-month, a year-on-year decrease of 5.61%, and the cumulative output in January ~ March was 1.595 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 1.63%, slightly higher than the expected value. Among them, the domestic zinc alloy output in March was 94,300 tons, down 00,920 tons from the previous month.
Entering March, the output of domestic smelters has recovered, mainly because the number of production days in March has increased by 2 days compared with February, and the output of smelters in Hunan, Guangxi, Sichuan and other places has recovered, contributing to a certain increase, but smelters in Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Hunan and Sichuan have also undergone certain maintenance and production reductions, and the output has declined to a certain extent.
SMM expects domestic refined zinc production in April 2024 to decrease by 21,200 tons month-on-month to 504,300 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.61%, and the cumulative output from January to April will be 2.099 million tons. The output in April decreased slightly, mainly due to the routine maintenance of smelters in Gansu and Xinjiang, and the reduction of production by some smelters in Henan, Shaanxi, Yunnan, Inner Mongolia and other places due to insufficient raw materials and profits. At the same time, the output of smelters in Hunan, Sichuan, Shaanxi, Anhui and other places increased after maintenance and recovery, and the overall output did not change much.
Refining tin
According to SMM research, the domestic refined tin output in March was 15,556 tons, 35.74% month-on-month compared with February, and 2.92% year-on-year. In March, the domestic tin ingot output increased significantly, among which some smelters in Yunnan increased tin ingot output due to the elimination of the impact of the Spring Festival holiday and the sharp rebound in operating levels. At present, most smelters in Yunnan have resumed normal production and have no plans for overhaul for the time being; while most smelters in Jiangxi have also seen a considerable increase in output compared with February due to the elimination of the impact of the Spring Festival holiday; a certain smelter in Inner Mongolia proceeded smoothly in March according to the production plan, and there is no adjustment of the production plan in the short term; the production workshop of a certain smelter in Guangdong has recently resumed normal production and has been operating smoothly according to the production plan; and most smelting enterprises in Anhui and other regions have resumed normal production rhythm in March. Entering April, the output of a small number of smelters in Yunnan that plan to gradually resume production is expected to rise to the level of the previous year; most smelters in Jiangxi are expected to maintain normal production, and the output of a small number of smelters has risen slightly, and it is estimated that the output of refined tin will increase slightly in April; a smelter in Hubei has stopped production in late October 23 due to the shortage of waste procurement; and most smelters in other areas have basically maintained normal production. It is estimated that the domestic tin ingot output in April 2024 will be 16,555 tons, 6.42% month-on-month and 10.71% year-on-year.
Electrolytic nickel
In March 2024, the country's refined nickel output totaled 24,900 tons, an increase of 1.22% month-on-month and 41.48% year-on-year. The slight increase in national refined nickel production in March was in line with expectations. In March, nickel enterprises gradually almost all resumed normal production, and the number of days of production without holidays did not decrease. However, it is worth noting that the total refined nickel output in March was still lower than that in January, mainly due to the shutdown and production reduction of some electronickel producers due to equipment maintenance during the month.
It is estimated that the national refined nickel output in April 2024 will be 25,900 tons, which is a significant rebound compared with the refined nickel output in March. According to SMM research, affected by the continuous rise in nickel prices during March, manufacturers are still enthusiastic about producing electronickel, and with the impact of electronickel expansion progress, the output of some electronickel plants is still climbing. On the other hand, the output of electric nickel producers that stopped and reduced production in March is expected to resume production in April, and the output of new nickel plates at the beginning of the year is still in the climbing stage. In summary, refined nickel production in April 2024 is expected to be revised upwards by 4% month-on-month.
Nickel pig iron
In March 2024, the national nickel pig iron output was 27,700 nickel tons, 662,000 physical tons, a decrease of 2.82% month-on-month, and a month-on-month increase of 5.95% in metal tons. Among them, there were about 225,000 physical tons of high-nickel pig iron and 211,900 metal tons, 437,000 physical tons and 64,900 metal tons of low-nickel pig iron, and about 30,000 physical tons of low-nickel pig iron. This month, the national ferronickel physical ton output declined, mainly due to the slow approval of Indonesia's RKAB in March and the impact of the rainy season in the Philippines, the supply of nickel ore was relatively tight in a short period of time, and the profit inversion of domestic ferronickel plants continued, and some small and medium-sized ferronickel plants stopped production. On the other hand, the metal ton increased month-on-month, affected by the domestic Spring Festival holiday in February, some integrated steel mills focused on maintenance and shutdown, and after the resumption of production in March, the output climbed sharply. Some steel mills in South China recovered with the recovery of 300 series production, and at the same time, the output of red and high nickel increased month-on-month. At present, domestic high-nickel pig iron smelters are running with the high price of nickel ore, and high-nickel pig iron is in a unilateral downward process in March, and domestic ferronickel production has declined.
It is estimated that the national nickel pig iron output in April 2024 will be about 27,000 metal tons, and the metal volume will be 2.52% lower than the March output. According to SMM research, some small and medium-sized ferronickel smelters in China have begun to stop production under the pressure of profit inversion, and the resumption of production will wait and see the market outlook. In summary, it is expected that ferronickel production will still show a decline in April expectations.
Indonesian nickel pig iron
Indonesia's nickel pig iron output in March 2024 was 117,900 nickel tons, an increase of 3.51% month-on-month and 23.9% year-on-year. The cumulative output in 2024 will be 353,700 nickel tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 19%. Affected by the limited progress of the approval of RKAB at the mine end in Indonesia, the current smelter still buys ore at a high premium, but due to the fact that the actual supply of tradable nickel ore in the market is still tight, the raw material inventory further decreased during the month. In addition, the tight tax on mineral resources and the Eid festival in April still exist, and the output of high-nickel pig iron in April is expected to be 121,000 nickel tons, a slight increase of 2.66% month-on-month. If the follow-up RKAB approval is still less sustainable than expected, and the impact of the resource tax invoice problem continues, it may have a certain impact on production in the future.
Nickel sulfate
In March 2024, the national output of nickel sulfate was 34,000 metal tons, and the national physical ton output was 160,100 physical tons, an increase of 32,71% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 7.83%. The increase in supply in March was mainly due to the recovery of demand and the gradual resumption of production by wet recycling enterprises. In March, the downstream ternary material industry chain was basically completed and the sales data in March was good, and the upward transmission of demand was smooth, so the operating rate of salt plants was generally good in March.
In April, SMM is expected to pick up terminal consumption due to the price reduction strategy adopted by ternary car companies to stimulate consumption. Superimposed on the continuation of the spot tension in March, the precursor enterprises have limited reserves, and the demand still exists. And the rise in nickel sulfate prices caused by the mismatch between supply and demand in March has brought about the recovery of salt plant profits, so it is expected that the operating rate will remain high in April and with the gradual start of the wet recycling plant, the national nickel sulfate output in April 2024 is expected to be 35,900 metal tons, and the national physical ton output is 163,000 physical tons, an increase of 5.39% month-on-month and 18.88% year-on-year.
Battery-grade manganese sulfate
In March 2024, the output of high-purity manganese sulfate in the mainland was about 13,800 tons, an increase of 56.8% month-on-month. According to the survey, the reason for the increase in the output of high-purity manganese sulfate enterprises is the resumption of work after the holiday, the resumption of normal production of most manganese salt plants, and the improvement of the demand of downstream precursor enterprises, which has driven the increase in the production schedule of high-purity manganese sulfate enterprises, and the overall output of the market has increased. In March, under the condition of rising cost support, most enterprises in Guizhou entered the period of shutdown and maintenance, at a low level of inventory, and the overall supply and demand relationship of the market remained tight. Downstream precursor enterprises have a wait-and-see attitude towards the rise in quotations, maintain rigid demand for purchases, and the purchase volume has increased compared with February. It is expected that in April, the quotation of high-purity manganese sulfate enterprises under the support of cost is still strong, and the high-purity manganese sulfate enterprises that have been overhauled and stopped or gradually began to resume normal production according to the orders of downstream precursor enterprises, so that the output of high-purity manganese sulfate continues to increase. Therefore, from the perspective of comprehensive market conditions, it is expected to achieve an output of about 16,000 physical tons of high-purity manganese sulfate in April, an increase of 15.9% month-on-month.
Electrolytic manganese dioxide
SMM data shows that in March 2024, the output of electrolytic manganese dioxide in the mainland was 14,700 tons (including 1,200 tons of lithium manganese oxide, 9,100 tons of alkali manganese, and 4,400 tons of carbon-zinc), an increase of 12.5% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 5.2%. In March, due to the resumption of work after the holiday, the superimposed market situation has rebounded, the downstream demand is improving, and the output of electrolytic manganese dioxide in lithium manganese oxide, alkali manganese type, and carbon zinc type has increased. From the demand side, the market situation of primary battery companies is relatively stable, with fewer new orders, and the market of secondary battery companies has risen but the amplitude is small. From the perspective of the supply side, the market trading atmosphere is active, and the lithium-manganese type fluctuates greatly, so even if the downstream procurement demand is improving, the company is still cautious in scheduling production, and the overall production is mostly based on sales. Combined with feedback, the manganese dioxide market is relatively stable, and in April, affected by the recovery of the downstream lithium manganese oxide market, it is expected that the demand will further increase, driving the production schedule of enterprises to increase. Therefore, the output of electrolytic manganese dioxide in April was about 16,200 tons.
Manganese tetroxide
SMM data shows that in March 2024, the output of manganese tetroxide in the mainland was 9,300 tons (including 4,900 tons of electronic grade and 4,400 tons of battery grade), an increase of 45.3% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 13.8%. Production of electronic-grade manganese tetroxide and battery-grade manganese tetroxide increased in March. The reasons are: 1. After the resumption of work after the holiday, enterprises have resumed normal production, and some enterprises may release new production capacity. Second, the production schedule of lithium manganese oxide cathode enterprises has increased, and the procurement demand for battery-grade manganese tetroxide has increased, driving the production schedule of enterprises to increase; In terms of the overall market situation, lithium manganese oxide enterprises are more sensitive to the spot price of lithium carbonate, and the fluctuation of lithium carbonate prices in March has caused most lithium manganese oxide companies to be reluctant to do more inventory, and most companies are determined by sales. It is expected that in April, the market production enthusiasm will be improved, the production schedule of electronic grade manganese tetroxide will continue to increase, and the battery-grade manganese tetroxide will be affected by the market return of lithium manganese oxide, and the demand will be further released. Overall, the total production of manganese tetroxide in April is expected to be about 10,200 tons.
High-carbon ferrochrome
SMM data shows that in March 2024, the national high-carbon ferrochrome production will recover from the rise, to 6462, an increase of 54,400 tons, or 9.19%, month-on-month, and a year-on-year increase of 15,900 tons, an increase of 2.52%. Among them, the output of Inner Mongolia was 461,200 tons, an increase of 22,800 tons or 5.2% month-on-month, and the output of Guizhou was 26,000 tons, an increase of 48.57% month-on-month. Although the steel prices of mainstream stainless steel mills continued to be flat in March, chrome ore prices continued to remain high, and there were still a large number of regional ferrochrome smelting enterprises in the cost inversion. However, the output of steel mills has rebounded, market confidence has warmed, and coke prices have fallen one after another, the upside down situation of iron mills has been repaired, and the production enthusiasm of iron mills has increased. March was naturally a slightly longer day, and the impact of the Spring Festival holiday ended, and the output of ferrochrome increased significantly month-on-month.
The output of high-carbon ferrochrome in April is expected to be 701,000 tons, further higher than the output in March and breaking through the historical peak. In March and April, stainless steel production continued to be high, and the demand for ferrochrome was large. In mid-March, Tsingshan was the first to announce the steel recruitment, which rose sharply beyond market expectations, the profits of ferrochrome enterprises recovered, the enthusiasm for production was ignited, and the resumption of production of the suspended iron plant was relatively concentrated.
stainless steel
According to SMM research, the national stainless steel output in March 2024 totaled about 3.1781 million tons, an increase of about 21.87% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of about 16.38% from February. Among them, the output of 200 series stainless steel was about 871,400 tons, an increase of about 22.91% month-on-month, the output of 300 series stainless steel was about 1.6919 million tons, an increase of about 21.37% month-on-month, and the output of 400 series stainless steel was about 614,800 tons, an increase of about 21.82% month-on-month.
March is the traditional peak season, and the resumption of work after the Spring Festival, the actual purchase demand of the terminal at the beginning of the month is acceptable, and the steel mills scheduled production in March at a high level, of which the output of 300 series has reached a record high. The 200 series output is affected by the Spring Festival and the post-holiday steel mill load reduction production and the suspension and reduction of some steel mills' maintenance and rectification plans, although the 200 series production resumed production smoothly but the supply weakened compared with March last year; 300 series stainless steel downstream orders are mainly based on the agreement merger in February and March, and the post-holiday orders of steel mills in North China and South China are better, and the production schedule in February is delayed and some steel mills are expected to forget the demand for the downstream to be stronger, and the steel mills basically maintain full production in the month, and the 300 series stainless steel has increased and resumed production significantly. Due to the relatively stable industrial demand, the downstream started normally after the Spring Festival, the demand was stronger month-on-month, and the output increased significantly year-on-year with the support of long-term orders.
In April, after the holiday, social inventory and factory warehouses are located at a high level, downstream demand gradually weakened, the early nickel supply concerns dissipated after the high nickel pig iron price recovery surplus fundamentals under pressure downward, the cost collapsed after the stainless steel price fell to the bottom before the holiday again, stainless steel plant losses are more serious, and the terminal demand is relatively weak, in April stainless steel plant 300 series production schedule decreased, a steel mill in East China has a 300 series to 400 series plan, April 200 and 300 series production will appear more significant decline, 400 series stainless steel production will increase.
Electrolytic manganese
SMM data shows that the output of electrolytic manganese in the mainland in March 2024 was 101,200 tons, an increase of 18.84% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 11.75%. The main reasons for the increase in production in March were the increase in the operating rate of Sichuan and Yunnan production areas, and the operating rate of the leading large factories could be higher than 70% of the meeting agreement due to the purchase of part of the production quota of manganese plants. In addition, the increase in the number of natural months in March also had a certain impact on the increase in production. On the demand side: in March, the overall domestic stainless steel output also showed an increasing trend, and the output growth rate of 200 series and 300 series stainless steel was relatively similar, but due to the weak performance of terminal consumption, there was a trend of accumulation of steel mills in that month.
In April, except for the head factories and some small plants, the rest of the manganese plants still maintained 70% of their production capacity. Therefore, the overall monthly supply of manganese market does not fluctuate much. According to the survey of manganese plant scheduling, the supply side is expected to produce about 100,700 tons in April.
Silicon-manganese alloys
SMM data shows that the total output of silicon-manganese alloy in the mainland in March 2024 was 808,500 tons, an increase of 0.87% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 14.93%. The main reason for the reduction of silicon-manganese this month is that the high operating rate in the northern region such as Inner Mongolia is maintained, and due to the increase in the number of days in the natural month, the total output in Inner Mongolia is increasing, and the output of the whole month is still maintained at a relatively high position, while some enterprises in Ningxia and most enterprises in the southern region are relatively under great pressure due to the decline in prices, and the overall daily output has decreased. Therefore, on the whole, the overall production schedule of silicon-manganese showed a downward trend, but due to the increase in the number of natural days in March, the output of silicon-manganese fluctuated little compared with the previous month, and the total output of silicon-manganese in March increased slightly.
Entering April, enterprises in cost-advantaged areas such as Inner Mongolia started to maintain. Considering that the price performance of silicon-manganese is still weak, the profitability of enterprises is limited, and the expectation of operating rate increase in other regions is still low, the overall silicon-manganese output in April is expected to continue to shrink, about 778,500 tons.
Industrial silicon
According to SMM statistics, China's industrial silicon output in March 2024 was 366,300 tons, an increase of 21,000 tons or 6.2% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 53,000 tons, or 17.1%.
In March, some of the industrial silicon production capacity in Xinjiang, Yunnan and other places was reduced and overhauled, and the shutdown time was mostly concentrated in the second half of the month or the end of the month, which had a limited impact on the output reduction of the month. On the one hand, the number of production days in March increased by 2 days compared with February, and on the other hand, silicon enterprises in some regions increased or resumed production.
Industrial silicon has maintained a continuous decline since the Spring Festival, entering April, the sluggish market of silicon prices has not improved, the industry inventory is high and it is difficult to go to the warehouse, the production pressure of enterprises is greater, Yunnan and Xinjiang Yili and other silicon enterprises have further reduced production in April, Sichuan is close to the flat water period has no intention of resuming production, and it is expected that the national industrial silicon output will fall to around 340,000 tons in April.
Polysilicon
In March, the actual domestic polysilicon production schedule was 171,000 tons, an increase of 4.9% from February. At the end of the Spring Festival in March, the downstream wafer production schedule increased significantly, the demand for polysilicon was strong, the shortage of N-type materials was particularly high, the price continued to rise, and the profits were further revealed, and the enthusiasm of polysilicon factories was still there, maintaining full operation, and the oversupply of polysilicon began to appear in April, but the profits were still superimposed on the new production line, and the production schedule is expected to reach about 180,000 tons.
Photovoltaic modules
According to SMM statistics, China's module production schedule will reach 54.4GW in March, an increase of 78.3% from February, and the module production schedule will increase significantly, mainly due to the lag in orders from January to February and the recovery of domestic and foreign markets in March. At present, the inventory of module manufacturers is relatively controllable, and due to the market share grabbing, the production enthusiasm of leading manufacturers is still high, and the production schedule in April continued to increase to about 58GW, but the growth rate has narrowed significantly due to inventory concerns and cost pressure on small manufacturers.
Photovoltaic cells
The actual volume of cells in March was 56.87GW, a month-on-month increase of 44.5% and a year-on-year increase of 35.40%. In March, the output of N-type Topcon cells reached more than 37GW, accounting for about 66.5% of the total output, and the downstream demand for topcon cells in March was as high as 35GW.
Photovoltaic glass
According to SMM statistics, the monthly output of domestic photovoltaic glass in March was 2.4361 million tons, an increase of 9.39% from February, due to the increase of 1 day in production days compared with February, and due to the recent high demand for modules, driven by demand, the domestic supply side ignition willingness increased significantly, a total of 5 kilns were ignited in China in March, and the supply is expected to increase more.
DMC
According to SMM statistics, the output of organic silicon in China in March was 195,400 tons, an increase of 9.87% month-on-month. The operating rate of the industry in March was 81.69%. The reason for the increase in production in March is that the silicone industry has quickly entered the peak season demand rise stage, the price of DMC has gradually increased, the profit of the monomer plant has been rising and the order demand has performed well, and the monomer enterprises with low load in the early stage have gradually increased in March, so the overall output of DMC has increased.
Magnesium ingots
SMM data showed that China's magnesium ingot production in March 2024 was 64,837 tons, down 2.6% month-on-month and 2.3% year-on-year.
In March 2024, some magnesium plants will successively implement maintenance plans according to the capital situation and cost situation, and the output of magnesium ingots will continue to be adjusted downward. The reason for the decrease in magnesium ingot production this month is: at the beginning of March, affected by the oversupply of magnesium ingots and the shortage of funds of magnesium plants, magnesium prices have been under pressure all the way, and magnesium plants have continued to reduce prices to stimulate downstream procurement in order to alleviate financial pressure, but blindly price concessions have failed to effectively go to the warehouse, but have made magnesium prices continue to fall sharply all the way, magnesium factory panic has become stronger, and magnesium plant profit margins have been repeatedly compressed, magnesium prices have been below the factory cost line, some magnesium plants choose to reduce the operating rate or stop production, reduce the supply of magnesium ingots, so the overall output of magnesium ingots in March decreased。
At the beginning of April, the news of the reduction and suspension of production in the magnesium market spread loudly, and the demand accumulated on the Qingming Festival was superimposed on the concentrated release of the demand for early stocking on May Day, and the magnesium price was gradually strengthened at 18,000 yuan/ton. However, considering that the shutdown of the magnesium plant is mainly implemented in late March and early April, which will have a greater impact on April production, SMM expects the output of magnesium ingots to be reduced to 62,000 tons in April.
Magnesium alloy
SMM data shows that China's magnesium alloy output in March 2024 was 26,550 tons, up 33.3% month-on-month and 5.9% year-on-year.
In March, magnesium alloy downstream processing enterprises started to improve, orders rebounded, magnesium alloy factories gradually resumed normal production, and the output of magnesium alloy factories increased by 33%. The reason for the increase in output this month is: affected by the downstream shutdown of magnesium alloy during the Spring Festival, magnesium alloy orders are not ideal, magnesium alloy output in February has been significantly lowered due to the impact of the holiday, and with the gradual start of the downstream, magnesium alloy orders in March increased by 33% compared with February. Affected by the sluggish domestic economy, the overall demand for magnesium alloy market is sluggish. Judging from the current domestic magnesium alloy enterprise orders, the sharp rise in aluminum prices has greatly highlighted the cost performance of magnesium alloy, and it is expected that magnesium alloy orders will improve slightly, and SMM expects that the output of magnesium alloy will increase at 27,000 tons in April.
Magnesium powder
According to SMM data, China's magnesium powder output in March 2024 was 6,212 tons, up 22% month-on-month and 8.7% year-on-year.
In March, the output of magnesium powder decreased slightly, due to the cold orders of magnesium powder enterprises during the Spring Festival, the continuous decline in magnesium ingot prices and the strong wait-and-see sentiment of downstream enterprises, coupled with the decrease in overseas orders caused by the rise in shipping costs caused by the Houthi incident, the output of some magnesium powder enterprises has decreased. The person in charge of a large magnesium powder enterprise said that affected by the downturn in the domestic economic situation, the profits of steel mills are weak, the price of magnesium ingots changes frequently, and the downstream procurement attitude of magnesium powder is more cautious. Considering that low-priced magnesium ingots may stimulate an increase in magnesium powder orders, SMM expects domestic magnesium powder production to remain at 6,000 tons in April.
Titanium sponge
SMM data shows that China's titanium sponge output in March 2024 was 19,000 tons, up 9.6% month-on-month in that month.
In March, the new production capacity of some large titanium sponge factories was gradually released, and the rest of the enterprises started basically stable, and the output of titanium sponge increased slightly from the previous month. In March, the overall demand for titanium sponge market is improving, the overall military demand is relatively stable, the demand for civilian titanium has increased, and the price of titanium sponge has risen steadily with the support of orders in hand, considering that some titanium sponge companies continue to release new production capacity, it is expected that the output of titanium sponge will increase to 20,000 tons in April.
Praseodymium neodymium metal
In March 2024, the domestic output of praseodymium and neodymium metal was 5,744 tons, an increase of 12% month-on-month.
According to SMM research, the metal market started to pick up after the Spring Festival, and the national monthly output of praseodymium and neodymium metal increased by 12% month-on-month. From the metal factory, after the Spring Festival, the downstream magnetic enterprises have a large backlog of orders, and the start of magnetic materials in March has improved significantly, coupled with the group's purchase, the spot circulation of the metal market has been tightened. Considering that the backlog of orders for magnetic materials during the Spring Festival in April has been exhausted, it is expected that the demand for metal will slow down, and the metal output may decline slightly in April.
Praseodymium neodymium oxide
In March 2024, the domestic output of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 5,944 tons, an increase of 0.56% month-on-month. Jiangsu, Inner Mongolia, Guangdong, Guangxi and other regions all have varying degrees of growth.
According to SMM research, February coincided with the Spring Festival holiday, and the return of workers to their hometowns affected the normal operating rate of the separation plant, and the resumption of normal production in March led to a slight month-on-month increase in the output of praseodymium neodymium oxide in various regions in March.
The rare earth market has been relatively active recently, in the case of the mine end holders holding prices and reluctant to sell, and the inventory of downstream magnetic material enterprises has almost bottomed out, the group has driven the price increase, and the speculation of traders and the centralized procurement of downstream enterprises have led to a significant increase in the price of praseodymium and neodymium before and after the Qingming Festival holiday. According to some separation plants, rare earth metal mines from the United States have shrunk significantly, and it is expected that the output of praseodymium and neodymium in Sichuan will shrink significantly in April.
Dysprosium oxide
In March 2024, the domestic output of dysprosium oxide was 219 tons, an increase of 0.8% month-on-month, and the main increase was reflected in Guangxi.
According to SMM, due to the reduction of the operating rate of some separation enterprises during the Spring Festival in February, the output of dysprosium oxide increased month-on-month after the resumption of production in March. However, some enterprises in Jiangxi have reported that due to the inversion of costs, ion ore holders have been reluctant to sell at high prices since March, and the supply of low-price goods has been tightened rapidly, and some separation plants have slightly reduced production due to the shortage of raw materials.
Terbium oxide
In March 2024, the domestic output of terbium oxide was 42.5 tons, a decrease of 1.3% month-on-month, mainly reflected in the Jiangxi region, where the local output decreased by about 7%.
According to SMM's research, due to the cost inversion, ion ore holders pledged spot ores. In addition, Myanmar is about to enter the rainy season, and it is expected that the follow-up supply of ion ore will be difficult to increase. Holders are reluctant to sell at high prices, resulting in a rapid tightening of low-price sources of ion ore. Some separation plants in Jiangxi have slightly reduced production due to the shortage of raw materials.
Gadolinium oxide
In March 2024, the domestic production of gadolinium oxide was 291.5 tons, a decrease of 2% month-on-month, and the main reduction was reflected in Jiangxi.
According to SMM, at present, due to the reduction of ion ore supply, the operating rate of some separation plants has decreased in the case of insufficient raw materials, and the output of gadolinium oxide in Jiangxi has decreased by about 7% month-on-month. Considering that the rainy season in the south is coming, it will be difficult for Myanmar's ore imports to increase in the second quarter, and it is expected that the gadolinium oxide production in April will continue to shrink slightly from the previous quarter.
Holmium oxide
In March 2024, the domestic output of holmium oxide was 44 tons, basically unchanged from the previous month. Production in Guangxi and Jiangsu increased month-on-month, while output in Jiangxi decreased slightly month-on-month.
According to SMM research, the reduction in the operating rate caused by the return of workers during the Spring Festival holiday was restored in March, with the output of holmium oxide in Guangxi and Jiangxi increasing by 9% and 2% month-on-month respectively, and the output of medium and heavy rare earths in Jiangxi due to the insufficient supply of ion ore decreased month-on-month, and the local production of holmium oxide decreased by 2% month-on-month.
Molybdenum concentrate
According to SMM statistics, China's molybdenum concentrate output in March was about 16,500 tons, an increase of 10.8% month-on-month.
In March, the impact of the Spring Festival holiday on mine production has been alleviated, and most of the domestic molybdenum mines have ended the holiday and entered the normal production stage, and the molybdenum mines that were under maintenance in the early stage have also officially resumed production, making the output of molybdenum concentrate in March increase significantly.
Entering April, the lucrative trend of molybdenum mines remains unchanged, and the downstream demand for molybdenum raw materials will only increase, and it is expected that the output of molybdenum concentrate will increase steadily this month.
Ferro-molybdenum
According to SMM statistics, China's ferro-molybdenum output in March was about 15,700 tons, an increase of 5.5% month-on-month.
Looking back on March, the domestic ferro-molybdenum smelter ended its vacation and resumed normal production, and because the bidding volume of ferro-molybdenum hit a new high of 12,000 tons in February, and exceeded 10,000 tons in March, the ferro-molybdenum plant was relatively full, and the output rate increased steadily.
Entering April, the downstream molybdenum-containing steel still maintains a high production schedule, and the demand for ferro-molybdenum is not expected to decrease significantly, and it is expected that there is still some room for growth in ferro-molybdenum production this month.
silver
According to SMM survey statistics, the output of 1# silver in March 2024 was 1,554.57 tons (of which the output of mineral silver was 1,015.57 tons), an increase of 278.476 tons from the previous month, an increase of 21.82% month-on-month and an increase of 11% year-on-year. Production increased month-on-month and year-on-year, mainly due to the fact that silver rose for three consecutive weeks in March, and under the continuous climbing silver price, the market was very active in producing silver-containing waste, and some smelters showed an overall upward trend in output due to the higher price of silver, using inventory raw materials and recycling to make up for the reduction of minerals. Due to the recent high domestic prices of silver-bearing ore and the high price of silver in April, the market is not expected to be highly acceptable, and SMM expects a slight correction in silver production in April.
The ADP employment in the United States in March was 184,000, higher than the previous value of 155,000, the unemployment rate in the United States in March was 3.8%, lower than the previous value and the expected value of 3.9%, and the seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in the United States in March was 303,000, higher than the previous value of 270,000 and the expected value of 200,000. Although the employment data released at the beginning of the month was bearish, but after a small downward adjustment to spot silver, the market's risk aversion and investment sentiment still prevailed, and the gap between gold and silver ratio is also driving the price of silver up, entering the price of silver in April to break through the 7,000 yuan/kg mark.
silver nitrate
In March, due to the fact that the market was not affected by the Spring Festival holiday and shutdown, and at the same time, there were more natural production working days in March than in February. In March, the output of domestic silver nitrate enterprises with sales qualifications was 750 tons, an increase of 20.4% month-on-month and 38.9% year-on-year. In March, the output of various regions increased by about 20%-30% month-on-month, and the output of some regions decreased month-on-month. Overall, the increase in production was much greater than the decrease in production, so silver nitrate production showed an overall upward trend in March. Due to the high silver price in April, it is expected that production in April will be suppressed, and the market demand will be limited.
锑锭
According to SMM survey statistics, the actual output of antimony ingots (including antimony ingots, crude antimony conversion, cathode antimony, etc.) in March 2024 was 5,816.151 tons, a significant increase of 31.31% month-on-month compared with 4,429.22 tons in February this year. Production in February fell sharply due to the shortage of raw materials and the factory shutdown during the Chinese New Year. Therefore, the sharp rebound in production in March is also expected in the market, but due to the shortage of raw materials, there have also been some new manufacturers into the shutdown situation, a small number of manufacturers of production increased or decreased slightly, there are also some manufacturers to resume production, on the whole, the output of most manufacturers has risen to varying degrees, so compared with the previous month, the output in March is also an overall substantial increase. At present, raw material resources are still relatively concentrated in the hands of some factories, and it is still difficult for many manufacturers to resume production or continue to increase production.
Specifically, 16 of the 33 SMM surveyed manufacturers have stopped production, an increase of 1 compared with the previous month, 16 manufacturers are in a state of production reduction, a decrease of 1 compared with the previous month, and the output of 1 manufacturer is basically normal, unchanged from the previous month. SMM expects that antimony production in March has obviously returned to the normal operation cycle, and the national antimony ingot production in April 2024 is more likely to continue to recover growth than in March 2024, but the size of the increase still needs to observe the changes in the supply status of antimony raw materials such as imported ores and domestic mines.
Note: Since May 2022, SMM has announced the national production of antimony ingots (including antimony ingots, crude antimony conversion, cathode antimony, etc.). Thanks to SMM's high coverage of the antimony industry, a total of 33 SMM antimony ingot manufacturers were surveyed, distributed in 8 provinces across the country, with a total sample production capacity of more than 20,000 tons and a total production capacity coverage rate of more than 99%.
Sodium pyroantimonate
According to SMM's survey and statistics of major sodium pyroantimonate manufacturers in China, China's sodium pyroantimonate output in March 2024 was 4,102 tons, a sharp increase of 33.18% from 3,080 tons in February, and the output rebounded again after showing a sudden decline last month. However, market participants generally said that the rebound in production in March was within the expected range, and the main factor was that February was the Spring Festival holiday, and many manufacturers stopped work during the long holiday, resulting in an excessive decline in output in February.
In terms of detailed data, among the 11 SMM survey subjects, 1 manufacturer was still in a state of shutdown or commissioning in March, and the production volume of other sodium pyroantimonate manufacturers was basically rising, and only 3 companies had different degrees of reduced output. Individual manufacturers said that due to the fact that after entering April, the raw material stock of terminal manufacturers before the Spring Festival has gradually decreased, and the procurement of raw materials for supplementing sodium pyroantimonate has also increased significantly, so the output is expected to maintain a relatively strong production in April. At present, sodium pyroantimonate manufacturers are still generally optimistic that the output of terminal photovoltaic manufacturers will show an upward trend in 2024, and the demand of the photovoltaic industry is expected to perform well. SMM expects that China's sodium pyroantimonate production will likely rise slightly in April.
Note: From July 2023, SMM will announce SMM's national sodium pyroantimonate production. Thanks to SMM's high coverage of the antimony industry, a total of 11 SMM sodium pyroantimonate manufacturers were surveyed, distributed in 5 provinces across the country, with a total sample production capacity of more than 75,000 tons and a total production capacity coverage rate of 99%.
Bismuth purifies
According to SMM's survey and statistics of bismuth manufacturers across the country, China's refined bismuth output in March 2024 was 1923.275 tons, and the output rebounded sharply. Compared with the national refined bismuth output of 1167.599 tons in February 2024, an increase of 64.72% month-on-month. Market participants generally said that the rebound in March production was within the expected range, after all, compared with the 2618.416 tons of output in the same period in 2023, it has fallen a lot year-on-year, which is also in line with the current tight situation of bismuth raw materials in the market. For example, a large factory in Henan Province with very stable production also stopped production last month due to a lack of bismuth raw materials. Looking at other details, only 1 of SMM's 24 respondents saw a significant decrease in production in March, but 6 saw a significant increase in production. This also led to a significant increase in the overall production of bismuth ingots in March compared with the previous month. Of course, the most important factor for the increase in output is that February coincides with the Spring Festival holiday, and many manufacturers have stopped work during the long holiday, resulting in an excessive decline in output. However, many market participants said that the current bismuth raw material market is still obviously tight, so the shortage of raw materials is also one of the reasons why the output is not high. Therefore, SMM expects that the national refined bismuth production in April 2024 will continue to rebound, and it is likely to be stable, and it is difficult to return to above the 2,000-ton mark again.
Note: Since October 2022, SMM has announced the national production of refined bismuth in SMM. Thanks to SMM's high coverage of the bismuth industry, a total of 24 SMM refined bismuth manufacturers were surveyed, distributed in 8 provinces across the country, with a total sample production capacity of more than 50,000 tons and a total production capacity coverage rate of more than 99%.
Titanium dioxide
SMM data shows that China's titanium dioxide output in March 2024 was 390,000 tons, an increase of 3.7% month-on-month and 17% year-on-year.
March is the traditional peak season for titanium dioxide enterprises, with more orders in hand, titanium dioxide enterprises have resumed production one after another, and the new production capacity of large titanium dioxide factories has been gradually released, and China's titanium dioxide output increased by 3.7% month-on-month in March.
In March, titanium dioxide enterprises had more orders in hand, the spot of titanium dioxide market was relatively tight, and the inventory pressure of titanium dioxide enterprises was small, but the recent trading atmosphere of titanium dioxide downstream market was general, and the downstream customer procurement was mostly just needed to purchase, and the third wave of titanium dioxide price increase resistance was greater. Considering that titanium dioxide orders are scheduled to mid-to-late April, the current titanium dioxide enterprises are basically stable, and the overall operating rate remains at a high level, SMM expects that the output of titanium dioxide in April will remain at 390,000 tons.
Ammonium paratungstate
According to SMM statistics, China's APT output in March was about 10,000 tons, an increase of 13.9% month-on-month.
In March, the end of the Spring Festival holiday and the completion of the smelter's overhaul led to a significant increase in APT output. Because the price of tungsten raw materials has risen rapidly, and the downstream tungsten powder market is still under pressure, the inversion situation of the APT smelter has not been alleviated.
Entering April, affected by environmental protection inspectors and other factors, the productivity of APT smelters in Jiangxi may be reduced, and SMM expects that APT production will remain stable in April.
Lithium carbonate
Waiting~
Lithium hydroxide
In March, China's lithium hydroxide production reached 27,375 tonnes, up 55% month-on-month and 15% year-on-year. In terms of raw material types, the output of smelted lithium hydroxide and causticized lithium hydroxide reached 23,850 tons and 3,525 tons in February, up 53% and 70% month-on-month, up 25% year-on-year and down 27% year-on-year. The rapid growth rate of the causticization method is mainly due to the fact that the prices of lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate continued to invert in the early stage of some causticizing enterprises, and the start of construction was low, and the OEM orders of some enterprises increased significantly after the Spring Festival, which promoted the rapid upward movement of output. In terms of cumulative production, China's lithium hydroxide output reached 67,517 tons from January to March 2024, down 3% month-on-month, and the cumulative growth rate narrowed from -12% in February. From the perspective of the market as a whole, the supply side of lithium hydroxide production in March increased significantly, and most smelters have gradually resumed work and production after the Spring Festival, and in March, with the rebound of lithium carbonate prices, the inventory level of lithium hydroxide itself continued to decline, driving the price of lithium hydroxide to rebound, and the general production and shipment enthusiasm of smelting enterprises has increased, and some enterprises in the causticizing method also have the gradual release of OEM orders and new production lines, and the output has also increased.
By April, it is expected that the release of some new production lines in the industry will still promote the production schedule of some enterprises to further rise, while the downstream demand from high nickel ternary will still be at a high level, but due to the overall demand increase compared with the Spring Festival, it will affect the production rhythm of some enterprises to a certain extent. China's lithium hydroxide output is expected to reach 31,480 tonnes in April, up 15% month-on-month and 35% year-on-year.
Cobalt sulfate
In March, China's cobalt sulphate output was 4,795 gold tonnes, up 18% month-on-month and down 36% year-on-year. The main reasons for the increase in output this month are: after the Spring Festival holiday, most raw material enterprises resumed work normally, and recycling enterprises were slow to resume work due to weak market demand. At the same time, due to the high price of raw materials after the holiday, the cost pressure of salt plants is high, which inhibits some of the output increase, so the output increase is less than expected.
It is expected that in April, the market is not optimistic about the demand for the future, and it is difficult to increase the operating rate of smelters under the accumulation of inventory. Production is expected to be around 4,888 gold tonnes, up 2% q-o-q and down 19% y-o-y.
Cobalt tetroxide
In March, China's cobalt tetroxide output was 7,175 mt, up 17% month-on-month and 28% year-on-year. The main reasons for the increase in output this month are: First, after the Spring Festival holiday, smelters resumed work normally. Second, due to the large number of orders signed by tetracobalt enterprises before, in order to deliver orders on time, the output of tetracobalt maintained an increase. As a result, production increased month-on-month in March.
It is expected that in April, due to the signs of weakening downstream demand and the intention of individual smelters to overhaul, output may decline. Cobalt tetroxide production is expected to be 7,055 tonnes in April, down 2% month-on-month and up 14% year-on-year.
Ternary precursors
In March 2024, China's ternary precursor output was about 77,550 tons, an increase of 27% month-on-month and 43% year-on-year.
On the supply side, in March, precursor manufacturers resumed work and production normally after the holiday. Superimposed on the good sales data in March, the downstream can be smoothly transmitted after the completion of the depot before the holiday. Therefore, precursor enterprises determine production by sales and increase supply. On the demand side, most domestic cathode companies are actively stocking up. The domestic demand performance is still good, and the 6 series materials of the head battery cell factory are still good. In terms of overseas demand, some precursor companies have increased overseas orders, and the overall situation is improving.
In April 2024, from the demand side, the domestic 6 series materials in the power market are still in a good position, but the increment is limited. The subsequent increase may be transferred to the 5th and 8th series. On the supply side, although the ternary market is generally in the process of recovery, overseas orders from some companies may weaken. On the supply side, precursors maintain the rhythm of on-demand production scheduling.
It is expected that in April 2024, China's ternary precursor output will be 80,290, an increase of 4%, an increase of 50% year-on-year. At present, the cumulative output of ternary precursors in China from January to April is 295,555 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 27.48%.
Ternary materials
Ternary materials In March 2024, production was 62,681 tons, up 33% month-on-month and 2% year-on-year. From January to March 2023, ternary materials will be 165,136 tons, with an annual cumulative increase of 24%.
On the supply side, in the digital and small power markets, the operating rate of leading manufacturers remained at a high level, and some small manufacturers also resumed work from the shutdown in February. In the power market, medium nickel materials are a popular product in the market, maintaining considerable growth in March, and low nickel and high nickel have also recovered from the trough in February. In terms of the proportion of materials, 5 series accounted for 23%, 6 series accounted for 29%, and 8/9 series accounted for 47%. On the demand side, in the consumer and small power markets, the price war of the main consumer cell factories is still continuing, and the production lines of the head consumer cell factories are basically full, driving the demand for ternary materials. The terminal two-wheeler market maintained a slight increase, and the power tool market has been relatively stable since 2024 after destocking in 2023. In the power market, vehicle sales achieved a large increase in March, and the superimposed terminal opened the stocking of new models on the market in the first quarter, driving the demand for battery cells and ternary materials to increase. In addition, in the case of the upward trend of lithium prices in March, battery cell factories have built warehouses for materials.
In April 2024, China's ternary material output is expected to be 68,760 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 10%, a year-on-year increase of 53%, and a cumulative year-on-year increase of 24% from January to April. On the supply side, the production schedule of ternary materials maintained a month-on-month increase in April, but the growth rate slowed down. From the perspective of material proportion, the 5 series accounts for 22%, the 6 series accounts for 30%, and the 8/9 series accounts for 47%, and the 6 series materials are still encroaching on the market share of the 5 series. From the perspective of enterprise competition pattern, the increase of the head medium and high nickel enterprises is considerable, the second-tier material factories have achieved a slight recovery, and the market concentration is expected to be further improved. On the demand side, in the power market, in early April, some car companies started a price war again in order to avoid weakening orders, and car sales in April may still maintain a good increment. From the point of view of the cell port, because the battery cell inventory has been at a low water level, the increase in vehicle sales can be smoothly transmitted to the battery cell and the positive extreme, which increases the demand for ternary. In the digital and small power markets, due to the recent stable lithium prices, the downstream has previously locked in future orders, and the demand is relatively stable. The overall ternary demand trend is upward.
Iron phosphate
In March, China's iron phosphate output was 121,100 tonnes, up 103% month-on-month and 75% year-on-year. In March, the vast majority of enterprise orders were increased, the operating rate of iron phosphate enterprises increased, and the market supply increased greatly. On the cost side, the price of phosphorus resources rose in March due to the spring ploughing season and the peak demand season for phosphate fertilizers, while the prices of raw and auxiliary materials such as industrial-grade monoammonium phosphate and phosphoric acid rose slightly, and the pressure of rising costs in March was gradually transmitted to the downstream. On the demand side, the demand of downstream iron and lithium enterprises increased considerably in March, and due to the rise in lithium carbonate prices, iron and lithium enterprises were stimulated to prepare for production in advance when the price was low, and the demand for iron phosphate was also greatly driven. It is expected that there will be a continuous increase in iron phosphate orders and supply in April, and China's iron phosphate output is expected to be 135,400 tons in April, up 12% month-on-month and 86% year-on-year.
Lithium iron phosphate
In March, China's lithium iron phosphate output was 137,010 tons, up 70% month-on-month, 95% year-on-year, and 53% year-on-year. On the raw material side, the price of lithium carbonate rebounded in March, the center of gravity of iron phosphate prices shifted upward, and the cost of lithium iron increased accordingly, but the cost was slowly transmitted to the battery cell factory. On the supply side, the orders of iron and lithium enterprises gradually recovered in March, and the order increment of the head iron and lithium enterprises was considerable, the operating rate increased, and the supply increased. On the demand side, the price war of new energy vehicles continued to escalate in March, stimulating the recovery of power market demand, the energy storage market is also gradually recovering, and the pace of delivery of battery cell factories has accelerated significantly. With the gradual launch of new energy models in the second quarter and the continuation of the price war, lithium iron cathode enterprises have more confidence in market demand, and the momentum of impulse in the second quarter is stronger, and the market demand can continue to increase, and it is expected that China's lithium iron phosphate output in April will be 164,110 tons, an increase of 20% month-on-month and 105% year-on-year.
Lithium cobalt oxide
In March, China's lithium cobalt oxide output was 6,345 tons, up 44% month-on-month and 21% year-on-year. On the cost side, the rising prices of lithium carbonate and tetracobalt have driven up the manufacturing cost of lithium cobalt oxide. On the supply side, the production of lithium cobalt oxide manufacturers in March achieved incremental recovery from the trough of the Spring Festival. However, the market is differentiated, and the manufacturers who mainly do the high-voltage market have increased more, and the manufacturers in the multiplier market have a weak increase. On the demand side, due to the lack of plans to release popular models in the first half of the year, battery cell factories are more conservative about the increase in market demand in the second quarter.
China's lithium cobalt oxide output in April is expected to be 6,770 tons, a month-on-month increase of 7% and a year-on-year increase of 11%. On the supply side, the leading lithium cobalt oxide manufacturers maintained a certain increase in April, and the second-tier manufacturers remained stable. In addition, due to the release of new production capacity, some manufacturers are expected to increase production schedules. On the demand side, the high-end digital lithium cobalt oxide market recovered, the head battery cell factory maintained a slight increase in delivery, and the demand for multiplier e-cigarettes was still not optimistic.
Lithium manganese oxide
In March 2024, China's lithium manganese oxide production was 7,120 tons, up 25.5% month-on-month and 73.5% year-on-year. The reasons are: 1. In March, there is no need to consider factors such as the Spring Festival holiday, and most lithium manganese oxide enterprises have resumed normal production, and the output has risen. Second, most of the stocks of downstream battery cell factories have been exhausted, the market has begun to pick up, demand is improving, and there are more new orders. Most lithium manganese oxide enterprises have high production enthusiasm and have returned to normal operating rates, and the overall production schedule of the market has increased compared with February. In March, the spot price of lithium carbonate at the raw material end fluctuated, resulting in the unstable cost support of lithium manganese oxide cathode materials, but the procurement situation of lithium manganese oxide enterprises was not affected in the short term, and the purchase willingness was still the same. It is expected that in April, the strong demand from downstream battery cell factories will further drive the increase in the production schedule of lithium manganese oxide enterprises, achieving a lithium manganese oxide output of about 8,500 tons, an increase of 19.4% month-on-month and 24.9% year-on-year.
Production of metal products in March 2024
Illustrate:
1. The value with * is the correction value, and the value in italics is the predicted value.
2. The output of nickel pig iron refers to the data after the physical quantity is converted into metal.
Research methodology
1. Research methods
SMM output research is conducted by professional analysts by telephone, field research and other methods, regularly monthly tracking of China's metal production enterprises, and based on this, the issuance of China's metal output report.
During the research process, the basic coverage ratio of the sample is ensured and continuously expanded, and the sample is reasonably selected and allocated considering the detailed factors such as production capacity scale, geographical distribution, and enterprise nature, so that each sub-item data is also representative.
Production data includes the previous month's output (preliminary value), the previous month's output (revised value), and the production forecast value of the current month's production. In general, SMM makes less corrections to the yield, i.e. correction value = initial value, but still retains the possibility of correction.
Before the 10th of each month, it will be released through official channels such as the official website of Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network (www.smm.cn), WeChat subscription account (Today's Nonferrous Metals), and mobile phone station (m.smm.cn).
2. Sample introduction