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Analysis of hog product prices for the fourth week of March 2024

author:Agricultural and Animal Husbandry Bulletin 365

Prices of livestock products and feed bazaars in the fourth week of March

According to the monitoring of 500 county markets and collection points across the country, in the fourth week of March (the collection date is March 28), the prices of live pig products, commercial egg chicks and soybean meal rose month-on-month, while the prices of eggs, commercial broiler chicks, chicken, cattle and sheep products, corn and compound feed fell.

Hog product prices. The national average price of piglets was 34.22 yuan/kg, up 4.8% from the previous week and down 9.8% year-on-year. Piglet prices all increased in all 29 monitored provinces across the country. The price was higher in central China at 36.16 yuan/kg, and lower in southwest China at 28.45 yuan/kg. The national average price of live pigs was 15.31 yuan/kg, up 1.8% from the previous week and 0.9% year-on-year. Pig prices rose in 28 provinces including Xinjiang, Henan, Shanxi, Tianjin, and Shandong, and pig prices fell in 2 provinces in Hainan and Qinghai. The price in East China was higher at 16.02 yuan/kg, and the price in Northwest China was lower at 14.63 yuan/kg. The national average price of pork was 25.18 yuan/kg, up 0.8% from the previous week and down 2.6% year-on-year. Pork prices rose in 26 provinces including Ningxia, Heilongjiang, Shanxi, Xinjiang and Guangdong, while pork prices in 4 provinces including Hainan, Guizhou, Jilin and Inner Mongolia fell. The price in South China was higher at 28.02 yuan/kg, and the price in Northeast China was lower at 21.61 yuan/kg.

Poultry product prices. The national average price of eggs was 9.99 yuan/kg, down 0.7% from the previous week and 14.9% year-on-year. The price of eggs in 10 major producing provinces such as Hebei and Liaoning was 8.34 yuan/kg, down 1.0% from the previous week and 22.2% year-on-year. The national average price of chicken meat was 23.62 yuan/kg, down 0.2% from the previous week and 2.9% year-on-year. The average price of commercial egg chicks was 3.70 yuan/piece, up 0.3% from the previous week and down 6.6% year-on-year. The average price of commercial broiler chicks was 3.52 yuan/piece, down 0.8% from the previous week and 15.2% year-on-year.

Beef and mutton prices. The national average price of beef was 77.39 yuan/kg, down 0.5% from the previous week and 10.8% year-on-year. The price of beef in Hebei, Liaoning, Jilin, Shandong and Henan provinces was 65.92 yuan/kg, down 0.6% from the previous week. The national average price of mutton was 75.50 yuan/kg, down 0.5% from the previous week and 7.3% year-on-year. The price of mutton in Hebei, Inner Mongolia, Shandong, Henan and Xinjiang was 68.23 yuan/kg, down 0.4% from the previous week.

Raw milk prices. The average price of fresh milk in 10 major producing provinces such as Inner Mongolia and Hebei was 3.51 yuan/kg, down 0.6% from the previous week and 11.1% year-on-year.

Feed prices. The national average price of corn was 2.58 yuan/kg, down 0.4% from the previous week and down 13.1% year-on-year. The average price of corn in the three northeastern provinces was 2.35 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week, and the average price of corn in Guangdong Province, the main selling area, was 2.69 yuan/kg, down 0.4 percent from the previous week. The national average price of soybean meal was 3.83 yuan/kg, up 0.3% from the previous week and down 12.2% year-on-year. The average price of compound feed for fattening pigs was 3.61 yuan/kg, down 0.3% from the previous week and 7.2% year-on-year. The average price of broiler compound feed was 3.73 yuan/kg, down 0.3% from the previous week and 6.0% year-on-year. The average price of compound feed for laying hens was 3.44 yuan/kg, down 0.3% from the previous week and 6.3% year-on-year.

Price comparison of pig feed, chicken feed and egg feed in the fourth week of March 2024

March 27, 2024

National pig exit price and feed market price

Date

Hog prices

(RMB/kg)

Feed prices

(RMB/kg)

Pig feed price comparison

Pig feed price comparison

Balance point

Expected profit

(RMB/head)

This week 15.25 3.23 4.72 4.34 135.01
Last week 14.93 3.21 4.65 4.34 109.46
Ring ratio 2.14% 0.62% 1.51% 0.00% --

Note: 1. The price of live pigs is the national average exit price;

2. The feed price is the average market price of feed raw materials, which is calculated according to the proportion of finished feed, mainly including corn, soybean meal, bran and small materials;

3. The pig feed price ratio refers to the ratio of the price of live pigs to the price of feed;

4. The pig feed price balance point is the dynamic value, which is calculated according to the changes in feed, labor, water, electricity, heating, drugs and other related costs;

5. Expected profit = 110× (pig feed price comparison - balance point) × feed price.

This week, the national pig feed price ratio was 4.72, up 1.51% from the previous month. According to the current price and cost, the average profit of the pig breeding head of the future piglet fattening model is 135.01 yuan. This week, pig prices rose first and then fell. The second fattening heat is still high in the week, the overall supply of the market is still tight, the first half of the week slaughtering enterprises are not smooth, it is difficult to reduce prices, pig prices rise; Boosted by the Qingming holiday next week, pig prices are expected to fluctuate higher, but with the weakening of post-holiday consumption, pig prices may still fall.

In the fourth week of March, the pig purchase of pig slaughtering enterprises and the ex-factory price of white strip meat

According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, from March 25 to 31, 2024, the average purchase price of live pigs in designated pig slaughtering enterprises was 16.01 yuan/kg, up 1.1% month-on-month and 0.6% year-on-year, and the average ex-factory price of white meat was 20.97 yuan/kg, up 1.2% month-on-month and flat year-on-year.

Market dynamics of domestic and foreign agricultural products in the 13th week of 2024 - pork prices continued to rise, while beef, mutton, and eggs continued to fall

  According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in the 13th week of 2024 (March 25-March 31, 2024, the same below), the "200 index of wholesale prices of agricultural products" was 123.38 (100 in 2015), down 0.63 points from the previous week and 5.34 points lower than the same period last year, and the "wholesale price index of 'vegetable basket' products 200" was 124.60 (100 in 2015), down 0.70 points from the previous week and 6.00 points lower than the same period last year.

  1. Pork prices continued to rise, while beef, mutton, and eggs continued to fall. The weekly average price of pork wholesale market was 20.41 yuan/kg, up 1.0 percent month-on-month and 1.7 percent higher than the same period last year; beef was 67.56 yuan per kilogram, down 1.0 percent month-on-month and 12.2 percent lower than the same period last year; mutton was 63.32 yuan per kilogram, down 0.7 percent month-on-month and 7.9 percent lower than the same period last year; and white chicken was 17.65 yuan per kilogram, up 0.2 percent month-on-month and 2.8 percent lower year-on-year. The weekly average price of eggs in the wholesale market was 8.43 yuan per kilogram, down 1.5% month-on-month and 21.0% lower than the same period last year.

  2. The prices of most aquatic products rose slightly. The weekly average prices of silver carp, carp, silver carp, grass carp and large hairtail fish wholesale markets were 9.61 yuan, 14.65 yuan, 17.42 yuan, 15.24 yuan and 40.30 yuan per kilogram, up 1.9 percent, 1.2 percent, 1.0 percent, 1.0 percent and 0.3 percent month-on-month respectively; crucian carp was 18.38 yuan per kilogram, basically unchanged from the previous month; and the weekly average price of large yellow croaker was 41.91 yuan per kilogram, down 0.3 percent month-on-month.

  3. The average price of vegetables continued to fall slightly. The weekly average price of 28 kinds of vegetables under key monitoring was 5.05 yuan per kilogram, down 1.6% month-on-month and 1.6% lower than the same period last year. In terms of varieties, the prices of 18 kinds of vegetables fell, 4 kinds of vegetables remained unchanged, and 6 kinds of vegetables increased. Among them, the prices of celery, spinach, green onions, leeks and lettuce fell by 7.2 percent, 6.7 percent, 6.5 percent, 5.9 percent and 5.1 percent respectively month-on-month, and the prices of other varieties fell by less than 5 percent; the prices of white radish, beans, ginger and garlic sprouts were basically the same as those of the previous month; the prices of Chinese cabbage rose by 8.1 percent month-on-month, and the prices of other varieties increased by less than 3 percent.

  4. The average price of fruits increased slightly. The weekly average price of the six kinds of fruits monitored was 7.42 yuan per kilogram, up 0.8% month-on-month and 7.1% lower than the same period last year. In terms of varieties, the weekly average prices of Kyoho grapes, Yali pears and bananas increased by 2.9%, 1.4% and 1.1% month-on-month respectively, while the weekly average prices of pineapple, watermelon and Fuji apples decreased by 1.7%, 1.2% and 0.5% respectively month-on-month.

Weekly report on the ex-factory price monitoring of lean white pork for the 13th week of 2024

According to the joint monitoring of the Information Center of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and Shandong Zhuochuang Information Co., Ltd., in the 13th week of 2024 (that is, from March 25 to March 29, 2024, hereinafter referred to as this week), the weekly average of the total ex-factory price index of lean white pork in 16 provinces (municipalities directly under the central government) was 20.12 yuan per kilogram, up 2.9% month-on-month and 6.6% year-on-year, an increase of 5.3 percentage points from last week.

This week, the ex-factory price of lean white pork in China (hereinafter referred to as "pork price") rose month-on-month. During the week, free-range farmers and large-scale farms were bullish on the market outlook and slowed down the pace of pig slaughter, coupled with the fact that the second fattening households returned the pig source to the circle for secondary weight gain, resulting in a tightening of the supply of pigs and supporting the rise in pork prices. Over the weekend, the sales of white pork slowed down and prices fell slightly as downstream dealers' purchasing capacity for high-priced pork weakened. Overall, the weekly average price of white pork was higher than last week.

Analysis of hog product prices for the fourth week of March 2024

Fig.1 Trend chart of the total ex-factory price index of lean white pork strips

Table 1 Changes in the total ex-factory price index of lean white pork

Unit: yuan/kg, kg

March 25th March 26 March 27th March 28th March 29th 宰后均重
16 provinces 19.93 20.15 20.25 20.22 20.06 90.56

1. Pork prices in Northeast China rose month-on-month and turned from falling to rising year-on-year

This week, the weekly average price of pork in Northeast China was 18.71 yuan per kilogram, up 3.8% month-on-month and 5.6% year-on-year.

Pork prices in the Northeast rose month-on-month this week. This week, free-range farmers and large-scale farms continued to increase their weight, the supply of live pigs was tight, and the export of white pork was smooth. The increase in supply and demand supported the rise in pork prices.

Analysis of hog product prices for the fourth week of March 2024

Figure 2 Pork price trend in Northeast China

Table 2 Changes in pork prices in Northeast China

Unit: yuan/kg, kg

March 25th March 26 March 27th March 28th March 29th 宰后均重
Heilongjiang 18.37 18.57 18.57 18.57 18.57 91.57
吉林 18.35 18.65 18.65 18.45 18.45 89.85
Liaoning 18.88 18.98 18.98 18.98 18.98 88.00

Second, pork prices in North China rose month-on-month and expanded year-on-year

This week, the weekly average price of pork in North China was 20.11 yuan per kilogram, up 3.5% month-on-month, up 9.2% year-on-year, and 7.3 percentage points year-on-year.

This week, the weekly average price of pork in North China rose month-on-month, rising first and then falling during the week. Some free-range farmers and large-scale farms are reluctant to sell, and the weight of pigs is increased, and the supply of live pigs is tight, which supports the rise in pig and pork prices. Approaching the weekend, pork wholesalers in Hebei have weak expectations for the market outlook, and the orders of slaughtering enterprises are average, and the price has fallen slightly.

Analysis of hog product prices for the fourth week of March 2024

Figure 3 Pork price trend in North China

Table 3 Changes in pork prices in North China

Unit: yuan/kg, kg

March 25th March 26 March 27th March 28th March 29th 宰后均重
Beijing 19.30 19.67 19.67 19.67 19.67 88.53
Tianjin 19.75 20.05 20.05 20.05 20.05 88.03
Hebei 20.10 20.38 20.38 20.38 20.10 88.33

3. Pork prices in central China rose month-on-month and expanded year-on-year

This week, the weekly average price of pork in central China was 19.80 yuan per kilogram, up 2.8% month-on-month, up 8.8% year-on-year, and up 5.8 percentage points year-on-year.

This week, pork prices in central China rose month-on-month, rising first and then falling during the week. In the early part of the week, large-scale farms were reluctant to sell, and the number of pigs slaughtered in slaughterhouses decreased, supporting the rise in pork prices. In the later part of the week, downstream dealers were not optimistic about the market outlook, with a decrease in purchase orders from slaughterhouses, and the enthusiasm of free-range farmers and large-scale farms to slaughter pigs increased, and the supply increased, resulting in a slight decline in pork prices.

Analysis of hog product prices for the fourth week of March 2024

Figure 4 Pork price trend in central China

Table 4 Changes in pork prices in central China

Unit: yuan/kg, kg

March 25th March 26 March 27th March 28th March 29th 宰后均重
Henan 19.57 19.73 19.60 19.57 19.48 83.78
Hubei 19.83 19.93 19.97 19.97 19.90 88.40
Hunan 20.40 20.63 20.97 20.97 20.70 101.00

Fourth, pork prices in East China rose month-on-month and expanded year-on-year

This week, the weekly average price of pork in East China was 19.99 yuan per kilogram, up 2.8% month-on-month and 6.0% year-on-year, an increase of 4.9 percentage points from last week.

This week, pork prices in East China rose month-on-month, rising first and then falling during the week. Large-scale breeding enterprises and free-range households are not highly motivated to slaughter pigs, and the supply is reduced, which supports the rise in the price of pigs and pork; only on weekends affected by rainy weather, the sales of pork in the wholesale market slows down, and the slaughtering enterprises slightly reduce their prices.

Analysis of hog product prices for the fourth week of March 2024

Figure 5 Pork price trend in East China

Table 5 Changes in pork prices in East China

Unit: yuan/kg, kg

March 25th March 26 March 27th March 28th March 29th 宰后均重
Shandong 19.71 19.94 20.14 20.14 19.94 84.78
Jiangsu 19.80 19.98 20.15 20.13 19.93 86.28
Anhui 19.70 19.70 19.70 19.70 19.55 86.22
chekiang 21.05 21.55 21.55 21.55 21.55 93.50
Fujian 20.60 20.80 20.80 20.80 20.80 102.63

Fifth, the price of pork in Sichuan and Guangdong rose month-on-month, and the year-on-year increase expanded

This week, the weekly average price of Sichuan pork was 19.24 yuan per kilogram, up 1.5% month-on-month, up 5.9% year-on-year, and the year-on-year increase expanded by 3.7 percentage points. In the early part of the week, the rhythm of slaughtering pigs from free-range households in Sichuan was relatively stable, but the number of pigs transferred out of Sichuan increased, which made the supply of pigs and pork in Sichuan tight, and the active procurement of pork dealers promoted the rise in pork prices. Later in the week, the demand for high-priced pork in the consumer market decreased, the number of customer orders decreased, and the price of pork fell slightly. Overall, the weekly average price of pork in Sichuan rose slightly month-on-month this week.

This week, the weekly average price of pork in Guangdong was 21.51 yuan per kilogram, up 2.2% month-on-month, up 5.4% year-on-year, and the year-on-year increase expanded by 4.4 percentage points. The rhythm of free-range households slaughtering pigs in Guangdong is relatively stable, affected by the rise in the northern market, some free-range households and large-scale breeding bullish sentiment is strong, raising the price of pigs slaughtered, coupled with the improvement of household consumption, pork dealers are more willing to purchase, driving a slight increase in pork demand in the short term. The two-way supply and demand prompted the weekly average price of pork in Guangdong to rise month-on-month this week.

Analysis of hog product prices for the fourth week of March 2024

Figure 6 Pork price trend in Sichuan and Guangdong

Table 6 Changes in pork prices in Sichuan and Guangdong

Unit: yuan/kg, kg

March 25th March 26 March 27th March 28th March 29th 宰后均重
Sichuan 18.93 19.15 19.45 19.40 19.25 95.38
Guangdong 21.27 21.57 21.77 21.57 21.37 102.23

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