Reporter Guo Jinhui compiled it according to public information
Editor's note: Recently, a number of think tanks have released research reports to forecast China's economic situation in 2024. These institutions generally believe that the mainland economy will get off to a good start in the first quarter of 2024. Although there are many challenges in economic operation and macroeconomic regulation and control, the fundamentals of the mainland's long-term economic growth have not changed. It is expected that the expected economic growth target proposed in the 2024 Government Work Report will be achieved. In the future, we must continue to stabilize market expectations and consolidate market confidence.
The economic rebound is further consolidated
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Despite the intertwined challenges at home and abroad, the mainland's economy got off to a good start in the first quarter of 2024. A number of think tank research believes that the favorable conditions of the mainland economy are stronger than the unfavorable factors, and it is expected that the economic recovery will be more consolidated in 2024. According to the research of the State Information Center, the mainland's economic operation in 2024 will show a trend of "stable before high and sustained improvement". According to a report released by the China Macroeconomic Forum of Chinese University, the changes in overall prices, the performance of the "troika", industrial added value and manufacturing PMI all support the judgment that the economy will be stronger in 2024 than in 2023. Research reports by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and the State Information Center both believe that on the whole, the mainland's economic growth is expected to be about 5% in 2024.
National Information Center:
In 2024, the mainland's economy will be "stable and high, and continue to improve"
The State Information Center released on March 28 at the 2024 Academic Annual Conference of the State Information Center "Stable and High - Outlook for China's Macroeconomic Situation in 2024" (hereinafter referred to as the "Outlook Report") believes that in 2024, the mainland's economic operation will show a trend of "stable and high, continuous improvement", the economic recovery trend will be more consolidated, the growth rate fluctuations between quarters will be more flat, the supply and demand structure will be more balanced, the employment situation and price level will be more stable, and GDP is expected to grow by 5% in 2024 Around.
The outlook report believes that in 2024, the world economic growth momentum will be insufficient, regional hotspot issues will occur frequently, the complexity, severity and uncertainty of the external environment will rise, and the global economy will continue to have a "three highs and two lows" trend of high inflation, high interest rates, high debt, low growth and low trade. However, the favorable conditions for the mainland's economic development are stronger than the unfavorable factors, and the basic trend of economic rebound and long-term improvement has not changed. Domestic macro policies have strengthened efficiency, accelerated the cultivation of new drivers, accelerated the release of reform dividends, accelerated the effectiveness of opening up dividends, and accelerated the filling of output gaps, supporting the stable growth of the mainland economy.
Niu Li, deputy director of the Economic Forecasting Department of the State Information Center, believes that in 2023, the mainland will withstand multiple external pressures and overcome many internal difficulties, and the domestic economy will rebound, showing a trend of "low in the front, high in the middle, and stable in the future". In 2024, global scientific and technological development will enter a period of acceleration, monetary policy tightening will enter a period of peaking, the impact of the Ukraine crisis will tend to weaken, and China-US economic and trade relations will be in a period of temporary relaxation. The "five major effects" of domestic macro policy enhancement, acceleration of the cultivation of new kinetic energy, acceleration of the release of reform dividends, acceleration of opening up dividends, and acceleration of filling of output gaps, policy effect, transformation effect, reform effect, opening effect, and gap effect support the stable growth of the mainland economy.
China Macroeconomic Forum, Chinese Minmin University:
China's economy will be stronger in 2024 than in 2023
The quarterly forum of the China Macroeconomic Forum of the Chinese University of China (first quarter of 2024) released a report entitled "Restart-2024 China Macroeconomy" on March 30, which believes that the short-term bottom of the economy has appeared around the third quarter of 2023, and the economy in 2024 will be stronger than in 2023.
There are at least three groups of arguments in favor of this judgment: changes in overall prices, the performance of the "troika", and some other indicators that characterize the hot and cold macroeconomic situation.
The first is prices. CPI increased by 0.7% year-on-year in February this year, ending the previous four months of negative values. In the context of long-term positive CPI, the core CPI rose by 1.2% year-on-year in February, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from January. Although the PPI is still in the negative range, from the trend point of view, its bottom has appeared in July and August last year, and has shown a volatile upward trend since then.
The second is the "troika". In terms of consumption, this year's consumption has basically continued its strong momentum since 2023. In terms of exports, exports in the first two months of this year increased by 7.1% year-on-year, significantly higher than the cumulative growth rate in the first two months of last year. In addition to the low base, this is also related to the resilience of external demand since the beginning of this year, as well as the diversification of mainland export destinations. In terms of investment, infrastructure and manufacturing investment performed well in the first two months of this year. In the next step, expansionary fiscal policy is expected to boost investment.
The third is indicators such as industrial added value and manufacturing PMI. In the first two months of this year, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value above designated size was 7.0 percent. Although the manufacturing PMI in the first two months of this year is still below the 50% line, the indicators reflecting the expectations of production and business activities were 54.0% and 54.2% in January and February, respectively.
In addition, a number of other positive factors have supported the economic upturn this year. For example, the formation of consensus on economic issues from all walks of life is conducive to the formation of policy synergy in the next step.
However, the mainland's economy is also facing some hidden worries, including the fact that consumption is "strong and weak," such as the enthusiasm for "playing" is still very high, but the focus is still "poor travel"; real estate is still in the process of bottoming out; and the tendency of "regularization" in the deposits of residents and enterprises is constantly rising.
Cass:
China's economy is expected to grow by about 5% in 2024
The "Economic Blue Book - Analysis and Forecast of China's Economic Situation in 2024" (hereinafter referred to as the "Blue Book") released by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences on April 1 pointed out that in 2023, the mainland's economic operation will generally pick up for the better. Looking forward to 2024, on the whole, the mainland economy is expected to grow by about 5%.
According to the Blue Book, the mainland is in the "new three-phase" superposition stage of the critical period of economic recovery after the epidemic, the transition period of old and new kinetic energy, and the period of adjustment to profound changes in the external environment. Although there are many difficulties in economic operation and macroeconomic policy regulation and control, it should also be noted that the fundamentals of the mainland's long-term economic improvement have not changed.
First, the factors of production are supported. At present, the working-age population of the mainland is still close to 900 million, and the total number of high-quality talents with higher education and vocational education exceeds 240 million. The savings rate is over 40%, and investment growth is still strongly supported.
Second, the market demand has potential. With a population of more than 1.4 billion and the world's largest middle-income group, the continent's per capita GDP has exceeded 12,000 US dollars, and its huge market potential will continue to be released.
Third, the industrial system is resilient. The mainland is the only country in the world that has all the industrial categories in the United Nations Industrial Classification, and the added value of the manufacturing industry has remained the first in the world for 12 consecutive years, and emerging industries have continued to grow and expand.
Fourth, innovation and creativity are dynamic. In 2022, the national R&D investment intensity will be 2.58%, reaching the average level of developed countries. Innovation and entrepreneurship are booming, and a number of high-valuation unicorn companies have emerged.
Fifth, there is room for macroeconomic policies. The mainland's inflation rate and fiscal deficit rate are both at a low level, the government's debt ratio is within a reasonable range, foreign exchange reserves are sufficient, there is considerable room for a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, and there are sufficient tools in the toolbox of macroeconomic regulation and control policies.
The "Blue Book" suggests that the following work should be emphasized. First, we will focus on implementing the strategy of expanding domestic demand and enhancing the traction of domestic economic circulation. The second is to accelerate the development and expansion of new kinetic energy and build a modern industrial system. Third, we will continue to promote reform and opening up and stimulate the momentum of high-quality development. Fourth, we should effectively prevent and resolve risks in key areas and build a solid bottom line of safety. Fifth, we need to promote high-quality and full employment in an all-round way to better protect and improve people's livelihood.
Continue to consolidate the foundation for economic growth
Reading tips
A number of think tanks predict that the expected economic growth target of the mainland in 2024 can be achieved. However, in the face of challenges in economic operation, policies need to focus on efforts. According to the research report co-authored by the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies of Renmin University of Chinese and scholars from think tanks in the United States, Russia, Canada, India and other countries, the essence of China's economic "weak social expectations" is "weak economic compound interest expectations", and it is recommended to continue to consolidate the foundation of high-quality development and accumulate a solid foundation for compound interest in major countries. The research of the Macroeconomic Research Center of Xiamen University suggests that the stability and continuity of macroeconomic policies should be maintained to stabilize market expectations and consolidate market confidence. A research report by the Bank of China Research Institute suggests that we should continue to consolidate the foundation for economic recovery and beware of a short-term trend from turning the economic growth center downward into a long-term trend.
Report of the five cooperation think tanks of China, the United States, Russia, India and Canada:
The six proposals unleash the compound interest of China's economy as a major country
Jointly authored by the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies of Chinese University and think-tank scholars from the United States, Russia, Canada, India and other countries, "Compound Interest of Great Powers: China's High-quality Development and Trends in 2035" (hereinafter referred to as the "Report") was officially released on March 31. The report showcases the achievements of China's high-quality development in the past few years, especially in the past year, and puts forward the concept of "compound interest of major countries" for the first time. The report believes that the essence of the current "weak social expectations" is "weak economic compound interest expectations", and puts forward relevant suggestions.
According to the report, the foundation of China's high-quality development is constantly being consolidated, and the compound interest of major countries with internal institutional reform and high-level opening up to the outside world is gradually being released. Only by closely centering on the overall goal of Chinese-style modernization and continuing to consolidate the foundation of high-quality development in various fields such as science and technology, finance, and industry, can we continue to accumulate a solid foundation for compound interest on major countries.
The report puts forward six recommendations, focusing on the implementation of policies and bridging the information gap in policies, stimulating innovation vitality and breaking through the "bottleneck" problem of high-end technology, focusing on promoting the opening up of the service industry from integrating into globalization to leading globalization, reforming the income distribution system and implementing the national income doubling plan, increasing risk appetite, first establishing and then breaking through the middle to enhance development confidence, and promoting high-quality capital market reform around the goal of becoming a financial power.
The report envisions China's top ten development prospects in 2035: China's GDP is likely to surpass the United States around 2035 and become the world's largest economy; China's disposable income is expected to double in 2035 compared with 2023; the proportion of middle-income groups is expected to expand from one-third to nearly one-half; by 2035, every three households will have an average of one new energy vehicle; China will become the primary force in maintaining international peace and leading the international stable order; The number of countries with unilateral visa-free and visa-on-arrival visas is expected to expand from more than 80 to more than 120, China will peak its carbon emissions before 2030 and become the country with the highest absolute annual emission reduction by 2035, the number of Fortune 500 companies is expected to exceed 200, China will become one of the world's most mature capital markets, and the Belt and Road Initiative will become the world's largest cooperation initiative.
Macroeconomic Research Center, Xiamen University:
Policies focus on consolidating market confidence
The "China Macroeconomic Forecast and Analysis - 2024 Spring Report" (hereinafter referred to as the "Report") recently released by the Macroeconomic Research Center of Xiamen University believes that the economic growth target proposed in the 2024 Government Work Report can be achieved. However, this requires policy focus. At the macro policy level, it is necessary to maintain the stability and continuity of macro policies to stabilize market expectations and consolidate market confidence.
According to the report, in 2023, the main contribution to China's economic growth will come from final consumption. Looking forward to 2024, the foundation for sustained consumption growth is not yet solid, and the uncertain growth expectation of household income, the tendency of "small" and "fragmented" household consumption, and the continuous adjustment of the real estate market may restrict the continuous growth of final consumption.
Investment growth is expected in 2024. The combination of policy tools such as front-loaded fiscal expenditure, special bonds, ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, and tax incentives will have a synergistic effect on infrastructure construction investment. The new quality productivity and the "artificial intelligence+" action will also further stimulate the rapid increase in investment in emerging industries characterized by high technology, high efficiency and high quality.
In 2024, economic growth in advanced economies is more likely to weaken. How to stimulate external demand and stabilize foreign trade, especially export growth, may be a greater challenge for China's economy in 2024.
The report suggests, first, to maintain the stability and continuity of macroeconomic policies, stabilize market expectations, and consolidate market confidence. In the process of policy implementation, it is necessary to change with the times, follow the trend, pay attention to the new changes and trends in the process of economic operation in a timely manner, put forward countermeasures earlier, and grasp the main purpose of the macro policy orientation unchanged and maintain the determination of policy implementation. Second, it is necessary to correctly understand the changes in the situation faced by external demand, and more accurately locate the export growth target and the contribution role of exports. The third is to do everything possible to increase residents' disposable income, improve the consumption environment, enrich consumption stimulation means, and tap the consumption potential, so that residents dare to consume and consume easily. Fourth, enhance the consistency of macroeconomic policy orientation. The focus of macroeconomic regulation and control policies should be shifted to guiding and promoting the expansion of micro-subject investment and consumer demand.
Bank of China Research Institute:
Efforts to achieve annual economic growth of about 5% still need to be redoubled
According to the "Economic and Financial Outlook Report for the Second Quarter of 2024" (hereinafter referred to as the "Report") released by the Bank of China Research Institute on April 1, China's economy will have a good start in the first quarter of 2024. It is preliminarily expected that GDP will increase by about 4.8% year-on-year in the first quarter. In the second quarter, China's economic prosperity is expected to rebound slightly, and GDP growth is expected to be around 5.1%. In the future, China's economic operation will further normalize, and the environment facing China's development will still be a combination of strategic opportunities and risks and challenges, and favorable conditions will be stronger than unfavorable factors. Macroeconomic policies should continue to consolidate the foundation for economic recovery, and guard against the downward shift of the economic growth center from a short-term phenomenon to a long-term trend.
According to the report, in the first quarter, from an external point of view, the global market demand picked up, the international trade boom rebounded, and the growth rate of China's foreign trade exports rebounded. Internally, macroeconomic policies have been further strengthened, the endogenous driving force of economic growth has been strengthened, and service consumption and manufacturing investment have become the main supports.
Looking ahead to the second quarter, consumption will continue to play the role of the "ballast stone" of China's economic growth, and the potential of service consumption is expected to be further released. The trend of industrial transformation and upgrading is obvious, and new quality productivity continues to be cultivated. The global inventory cycle has entered the replenishment stage, which is conducive to the strengthening of external demand momentum, and the low base of the previous year is superimposed, and the trend of export recovery is expected to continue.
According to the report, the 2024 Government Work Report sets the economic growth target at about 5%, which is not only an important consideration for expanding employment in the short term, increasing residents' income, and preventing and resolving risks, but also needs to achieve medium and long-term development goals. Achieving this growth target will require redoubling efforts on all fronts.
The report put forward six suggestions, including speeding up the implementation of fiscal policies and improving the quality and efficiency of the use of funds; financial policies should take multiple measures at the same time to balance the relationship between "stabilizing growth", "promoting reform" and "preventing risks"; Invest in room for growth, increase efforts to expand domestic demand, properly respond to the impact of the evolution of the international economic and trade pattern, and help foreign trade enterprises operate steadily, increase real estate policy support from both supply and demand, and accelerate the promotion of industry risk resolution, consolidate the foundation for cultivating new quality productivity, and accelerate the improvement of infrastructure, talents, factors and industrial systems that adapt to the development of new quality productivity.