Li Jifeng
With the formation of a general consensus on responding to global climate change, major countries have successively put forward carbon neutrality plans to further improve the development goals of the hydrogen energy industry, and the market demand for green hydrogen will grow significantly in the future. At present, the large-scale industrial application of hydrogen energy still needs to overcome four major challenges, namely, improving the industry standards and specifications of hydrogen energy, forming a complete industrial chain of "production, storage, transportation and use", building a long-distance and low-cost hydrogen energy transportation system, and reducing the production cost of green hydrogen.
In the future, it is necessary to form a consensus on the "energy attributes" of hydrogen energy, among which the establishment and improvement of an appropriate industry regulatory system is a prerequisite for the transformation of hydrogen energy, and the development of efficient and low-cost green hydrogen production technology to promote "electricity-hydrogen" Coupling is the key way to increase the demand of hydrogen energy market, cultivating a diversified hydrogen energy storage and transportation network to achieve long-distance and long-term hydrogen energy storage and transportation is the only way to connect the hydrogen energy industry chain, and building a comprehensive demonstration area of the whole hydrogen energy industry chain and supporting hydrogen energy industry policies are effective means to expand hydrogen energy application scenarios, promote technological innovation breakthroughs, and accelerate the commercialization of hydrogen energy industry.
Hydrogen energy has become a new track of global competition
Hydrogen energy is a secondary energy source with abundant sources, green and low-carbon, and a wide range of applications. Under the trend of global carbon neutrality, hydrogen energy has been highly valued by all countries and is expected to soon become an important carrier for low-carbon energy transformation.
At present, the global demand for hydrogen energy is about 94 million tons per year, mainly in the refining and industrial sectors. With the continuous expansion of hydrogen energy application scenarios, the market size of hydrogen energy will be greatly driven, and it is expected that the scale of the hydrogen energy market will be significantly expanded. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global hydrogen demand will reach 150 million tons by 2030 and exceed 400 million tons by 2060, of which the new supply after 2030 will mainly come from green hydrogen.
In order to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality and low-carbon energy transformation, the world's major economies have successively introduced or updated hydrogen energy development strategies, and raised the development goals of hydrogen energy and green hydrogen. For example, the German government has updated its hydrogen energy strategic goals, planning to achieve global leadership in the entire hydrogen energy technology industry chain by 2030, and the scale of hydrogen production by water electrolysis will reach 10 gigawatts (equivalent to 10 million kilowatts), the United States will increase the green hydrogen production targets for 2040 and 2050 to 20 million tons and 50 million tons respectively, and Japan plans to supply hydrogen and ammonia in 2040. It will reach 12 million tons and 20 million tons by 2050, respectively, and the South Korean government has announced a 240 million won ($193 million) investment to support the construction of six hydrogen cities.
In the strategic deployment of carbon peak and carbon neutrality in the mainland, hydrogen energy has been regarded as an important field to further promote the revolution of energy production and consumption, and build a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system. In March 2022, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the National Energy Administration (NEA) jointly issued the Medium and Long-Term Plan for the Development of the Hydrogen Energy Industry (2021-2035). The global hydrogen energy track has taken shape, and the future development may exceed the existing strategic expectations. In this regard, Continental should focus on the general trend of the development of the global hydrogen energy industry, find the right entry point, and strive to replicate the successful cases of electric vehicles and power batteries. The development of hydrogen energy is one of the important ways for the mainland to achieve the "dual carbon" goal, and hydrogen energy has a wide range of application scenarios on the power generation side, the grid side and the load side, and is a high-quality medium for the construction of China's new power system. With the transformation of energy consumption patterns, hydrogen energy will occupy an important position in the future energy mix.
The main challenges facing the development of hydrogen energy in mainland China
1. The "energy attributes" and "industry standards and specifications" of hydrogen energy need to be further improved.
Hydrogen energy has the dual attributes of "clean energy" and "hazardous chemicals", and on the basis of doing a good job in hydrogen energy safety management, it is necessary to clarify the energy attributes of hydrogen and accelerate the formulation of industry standards and technical specifications for hydrogen energy. In recent years, China has accelerated the strategic deployment of hydrogen energy development. On March 23, 2022, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the "Medium and Long-term Plan for the Development of Hydrogen Energy Industry (2021-2035)", which clarified the energy attributes of hydrogen energy in China, but there is a lack of unified understanding of the safety supervision system of the hydrogen energy industry chain, especially the lack of understanding of the energy attributes of hydrogen energy, resulting in a lack of clarity in the responsibilities of safety regulators in the implementation of hydrogen energy projects, and a lack of cross-departmental and cross-field coordination and coordination.
2. The hydrogen energy industry chain system is not yet complete.
Hydrogen production, hydrogen storage, hydrogen transportation and application have not yet formed a complete and efficient industrial chain. In the upstream of the industry, the mainland gray hydrogen technology is mature and low-cost, but the shortage of fossil energy, coupled with high emissions and many impurities that need to be purified, may be gradually replaced by renewable energy hydrogen production (green hydrogen) technology. However, at present, the efficiency of hydrogen production from clean energy in mainland China is low, and it has not yet reached the industrial stage of large-scale production. In the midstream of the industry, the domestic vehicle-mounted high-pressure hydrogen storage and hydrogen transportation are relatively weak, with a large infrastructure gap, a small number of hydrogen refueling stations and a small hydrogen storage capacity. In the downstream of the industry, the current application scope of hydrogen energy is relatively narrow, mainly in the form of fuel cells in the field of transportation, and the technical bottleneck leads to high costs, and the industrial application and promotion of fuel cell vehicles are still difficult.
3. Long-distance, large-scale, and low-cost hydrogen energy storage and transportation systems still need to be broken through.
There is a mismatch between the resources and demand of hydrogen energy in terms of spatial distribution, and the current long-distance and long-term storage and transportation technology of hydrogen energy is not mature enough and the cost is high, which restricts the large-scale production and consumption of hydrogen energy. The upstream production of green hydrogen in mainland China is mostly concentrated in regions with abundant renewable energy such as North China, Northwest China, and Northeast China, while the downstream demand is mostly distributed in economically developed regions such as East China and South China, which need to rely on long-distance storage and transportation technology to achieve cross-regional overall utilization of hydrogen energy. The mismatch of green hydrogen in the continental spatial dimension and the volatility of new energy hydrogen production put forward higher requirements for the cross-regional and cross-time storage and transportation of hydrogen energy, and the industrialization level of the hydrogen storage and transportation supply chain needs to be improved.
4. The high cost of green hydrogen production restricts the market competitiveness of upstream and downstream industries.
The technical economics of green hydrogen production and hydrogen use scenarios are poor. At present, the cost of refueling green hydrogen in hydrogen-fueled vehicles is 50-60 yuan/kg. The high cost of hydrogen production from renewable energy has led to the high overall cost of the green hydrogen industry chain, and the price of green hydrogen and its downstream products is much higher than that of traditional products of the same type, and the market competitiveness is insufficient, which seriously restricts the application of green hydrogen and the development of the industrial chain.
In order to achieve large-scale and low-cost production of green hydrogen, it is necessary to optimize the system design, multi-electrolyzer operation management, material reliability, etc., so as to further reduce the total cost of green hydrogen production system and improve the efficiency of hydrogen production. At the same time, it is also necessary to further develop the coupling technology of "wind-solar-hydrogen storage" to improve the consumption of renewable electricity, and promote the optimal operation of the "electricity-hydrogen energy" system under the condition of meeting the production target. In addition, it is also necessary to pay attention to cultivating hydrogen energy application scenarios, such as hydrogen energy special vehicles, port logistics vehicles, heavy trucks, buses, etc., to solve the dilemma that some pilot city plans are difficult to implement.
Suggestions for the future hydrogen energy industry policy in mainland China
1. Accelerate the construction of a standard system and strengthen effective supervision.
With reference to the development direction of international hydrogen energy technology and the actual development of the hydrogen energy industry in mainland China, the definition scope of various types of hydrogen energy is clarified, and safety standards in line with national strategies and industry characteristics are formulated. At the same time, a moderately forward-looking management system should be formulated to control the safety risks of the hydrogen energy industry chain and promote the safe development of the hydrogen energy industry.
Clarify the competent authorities of the hydrogen energy industry as soon as possible, and lead all relevant departments to establish an overall coordination mechanism, and establish a sound process for the approval, construction and acceptance of hydrogen energy infrastructure. With the overall planning of the development of the hydrogen energy industry and the safety of the whole chain as the starting point, establish and improve the hydrogen energy regulatory system and regulatory functions as soon as possible, strengthen the construction of regulatory capacity, strengthen the prevention and control of major safety risks in the whole industry chain such as production, storage, transportation, processing and use, establish a safety accident prevention mechanism and a safety emergency response mechanism, and improve the safety management level of the whole process.
2. Research and development of high-efficiency and low-cost water electrolysis hydrogen production technology and equipment, and promote the coupling of "electricity and hydrogen".
The development of hydrogen energy has become an inevitable choice for green energy transformation and low-carbon development, and breakthroughs in key technologies and cost reduction of green hydrogen are the key factors to promote the growth of hydrogen energy demand. On the one hand, it is necessary to accelerate the research and development of an integrated system of "water, wind, solar and hydrogen storage" based on the coupling of "electricity and hydrogen", break through the bottleneck of renewable energy development, increase its consumption ratio, and meet the demand for large-scale and long-term energy storage; At the same time, we will promote large-scale hydrogen energy storage to make breakthroughs in energy conversion efficiency, safety issues and core technologies as soon as possible. For example, PEM electrolyzers will need to reduce the amount of precious metals used in the future, improve their service life and increase their volatility adaptability.
3. Cultivate a diversified hydrogen energy storage and transportation network to connect the upstream and downstream industrial chains of hydrogen energy.
The large-scale hydrogen energy storage and transportation network system is an important foundation for realizing long-distance hydrogen transportation and long-term hydrogen storage, connecting the upstream and downstream industrial chains of hydrogen energy, promoting hydrogen energy production and consumption, and promoting the development of hydrogen energy industry. There are gaseous, liquid and solid hydrogen storage methods, and the three technologies have their own advantages and disadvantages in terms of hydrogen storage density, cost and efficiency. It is necessary to strengthen technological innovation, continue to increase the density of gaseous hydrogen storage, reduce the energy consumption and cost of low-temperature liquid hydrogen storage, increase the density of solid-state hydrogen storage, reduce the cost and temperature of hydrogen absorption and release, reduce the cost of hydrogen storage in organic liquids, and simplify the operation and reaction conditions.
At present, hydrogen energy storage and transportation methods are mainly based on high-pressure gaseous hydrogen storage, and liquid hydrogen storage should be developed in the medium and long term, and solid-state hydrogen storage is currently less used, and it will also become an effective hydrogen storage method after a breakthrough in cost and energy efficiency in the future. At present, original achievements have been made in the preparation of nanostructured magnesium-based hydrogen storage alloys by plasma method, hydrogen production by hydrolysis of metal hydrides, and hydrogen storage in N-ethyl cart (NEC) organic liquids, and the application prospects are considerable.
4. Build a comprehensive demonstration area for the whole hydrogen energy industry chain and expand application scenarios.
The development of the "offshore wind power + hydrogen energy" industry chain comprehensive demonstration project is an important measure to promote production, enrich hydrogen energy application scenarios, stimulate hydrogen energy technological progress and innovation breakthroughs, and promote the coordinated progress of the industrial chain, and is also an effective means to accelerate the commercialization of hydrogen energy.
It is suggested that Hainan Province should be built into a "clean energy island" and a comprehensive demonstration area for the whole hydrogen energy industry chain, which can accelerate the investment attraction of hydrogen energy projects, promote the acceleration of industrial agglomeration, help hydrogen energy enterprises become bigger and stronger, enhance the power of innovation, break through the "bottleneck" technology and key equipment of green hydrogen energy, expand application scenarios, and accelerate the large-scale industrialization and commercialization of hydrogen energy in Hainan Province and even the whole country.
(The author is director and researcher of the Climate Policy Research Office of the Institute of Resources and Environmental Policy, Development Research Center of the State Council)