Due to the continued collusion between the DPP authorities and the US government, as well as the capsizing of the fishing boat in Kinmen in February, the situation in the Taiwan Strait was very tense for a time. However, two incidents occurred in quick succession at the beginning of this month, suggesting that tensions in the Taiwan Strait may be reversed.
First of all, Rosenberg, chairman of the "American Institute in Taiwan," recently visited Taiwan, and her visit did not seem to be to cheer up the DPP authorities, but on the contrary, she expressed the hope that the two sides of the strait would "maintain the status quo." It is widely believed that Rosenberg is trying to restrain the DPP authorities, especially to hammer Lai Ching-te, who will assume the post of leader of the Taiwan region in May this year, and ask him not to aggravate the situation in the Taiwan Strait in the future. If Rosenberg's intentions weren't obvious enough, then US President Joe Biden personally stepped in to speak for itself.
On the evening of April 2, China's top leader had a telephone conversation with Biden at the request, and the two sides discussed many issues, and the Taiwan issue was naturally an unavoidable topic. In the phone call, China's top leader once again reminded Biden that "the Taiwan issue is the first red line that cannot be crossed in China-US relations" and called on the US government to implement its commitments to China. When Biden mentioned the Taiwan issue, he reiterated his commitment to abide by the one-China principle and not support "Taiwan independence". In this regard, many people's first impression may be that the US side is talking clichés again, Biden's promises are not credible, and so on. It should be said that there is indeed no problem in this understanding, and the US government has said that it is not a day or two to do one thing, but this time it may be slightly different from the past.
The most important reason why this time is different is that Lai Ching-te, leader of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), is about to assume the post of leader of China's Taiwan region, and this alone has brought about major variables in the stability of the situation in the Taiwan Strait. After Lai Qingde won the Taiwan regional election in January this year, even the US public opinion circles began to worry about whether Lai Qingde would cause chaos. Some US media have warned that Lai's provocative actions may trigger an "unexpected conflict" between China and the United States. In response to these warnings from American public opinion, Biden, as a politician with decades of experience, must be aware of the relevant risks and will take action against them, after all, Biden really does not want to have a full-scale military conflict with the mainland now. Previously, some analysts believed that the Biden administration would put pressure on Lai Qingde and the DPP authorities, asking the latter not to mess around, and Rosenberg's visit to Taiwan this time may be part of the Biden administration's "knocking" on Lai Qingde.
It is worth mentioning that the Biden administration has many cards in its hands that can put pressure on Lai Qingde, and sending US officials to put pressure is just one of them. If Lai Qingde makes any moves to provoke the mainland excessively, Biden can use some more influential tricks, such as delaying or even canceling some US arms sales to Taiwan, which will directly hit Lai Qingde's pain point and force the DPP authorities to rein in their behavior. If we also consider that this year is a presidential election year in the United States and Biden needs to stabilize Sino-US relations, the US government may exert strong pressure on the DPP authorities, and there is reason to believe that the situation in the Taiwan Strait will ease up slightly.
However, the US Government's current beating on the DPP is only worried that Lai Qingde's actions will cause the situation in the Taiwan Strait to get out of control, and it does not mean that the US Government will not provide assistance to the DPP's "Taiwan independence" forces in the future. In fact, the Biden administration's so-called "maintenance of the status quo" in the Taiwan Strait region is, to put it bluntly, to prevent China from completing national reunification, which is doomed to continue to collude with the DPP authorities in the future. For example, Zhang Yazhong, chief principal of Taiwan's Sun Wen School, recently said that the two sides of the strait have the same roots and the same origin, and will eventually achieve peaceful reunification! In fact, he is only half right, and China will certainly complete national reunification, but the way in which it will eventually complete reunification depends on the development of the situation.