Edited: Lan Suying, Huang Sheng
"A self-sufficient city needs about 1 million people, millions of tons of cargo, and we can do that in 20 years. ”
On April 7, local time, Musk gave a speech at the Starship base, elaborating on the vision of realizing humanity as a multi-planetary species through the Starship project, and explored the possibility of extending the light of consciousness to Mars and beyond.
Highlights:
1. For the first time in Earth's 4.5 billion year history, there is an opportunity to potentially extend life or consciousness beyond Earth.
2. To sustainably expand life to another planet, Mars is the only option at the moment.
3. The Fermi paradox provokes thought: we may be a unique civilization in the universe, and the continuation of consciousness is crucial.
4. Humanity is expected to make Mars a self-sufficient civilization within 20 years.
5. In the future, the cost of each flight to Earth orbit may be reduced to about $2 million or $3 million.
6. Approximately every two years, thousands of spacecraft will depart from Earth for Mars.
Core content:
In his speech, Musk emphasized the importance of the Starship project in achieving multi-planetization of life. He mentioned that Starship is the first rocket design with the potential to expand life to other planets, marking the first time that humanity has the potential to extend life and consciousness beyond Earth.
He proposed that although the Earth is 4.5 billion years old, human civilization accounts for only a tiny fraction of it, suggesting that consciousness may be rare and short-lived. Therefore, the extension of life to other planets, especially Mars, has become particularly urgent and important.
At the same time, Musk delved into the Fermi paradox, the question of "where are the aliens". He expressed his doubts about the existence of extraterrestrials and shared his thoughts on the possibility that Earth may be a unique civilization. He believes that if there are other civilizations in the universe, we should be able to see some signs, but no such evidence has been found at the moment.
He compares the history of human civilization to the age of the earth and the universe. He used the cuneiform script of the ancient Sumerians as a reference point for the history of civilization, emphasizing the instantaneity of human civilization and the rarity of consciousness.
Musk believes that for the first time in Earth's 4.5 billion year history, it is possible to extend life or consciousness beyond Earth. He emphasized the urgency of achieving this goal when civilization is strong and proposed that Mars is the only option. He discussed the advantages of Mars over other planets, such as Venus and the Moon, including the potential resources of Mars.
In discussing the urgency of colonizing Mars, Musk also made a key point: we must act when civilization is strong. He noted that if we wait too long, we could miss the window to establish a habitation on Mars. Musk believes that with the advancement of technology and the accumulation of resources, we now have the ability to achieve this goal. He called on us to seize this opportunity, not only to explore the unknown, but also to ensure the long-term survival of human civilization.
He envisioned a self-sufficient Martian civilization, believing that this goal could be achieved within 20 years.
Regarding the technological progress of the Starship project, Musk detailed the significant improvement in its thrust-to-weight ratio, the success of multiple flights, and future flight plans. He mentioned the upcoming fourth flight, as well as an attempt to land the booster on a virtual tower.
He stressed that the core goal of the Starship project is to develop a fully reusable rocket capable of transporting humans and supplies to other planets. Musk mentioned that the design and testing of the Starship is progressing steadily, with each flight improving its performance and reliability. He also shared his expectations for future missions, including attempts at booster recovery in a controlled environment.
He mentioned that SpaceX is constantly optimizing the design of the Starship to increase its carrying capacity and reduce costs. Musk also emphasized the importance of the Starship project in realizing the Martian migration plan, believing that Starship will be the key to achieving this goal. He envisioned a future where Starships would be able to frequently transport people and supplies between Earth and Mars, laying the groundwork for a Martian base.
When introducing Starlink, Musk said that Starlink will not only provide high-bandwidth communication for Earth, but will also play a key role in Mars' communication network. At present, the Starlink network has more than 6,000 satellites in operation, as well as 10,000 lasers and nearly 3 million customers.
In addition, Musk said that about every two years, thousands of spacecraft will depart from Earth for Mars, which looks like Battlestar Galactica. He also mentioned that SpaceX plans to build new launch towers in places like Cape Canaveral to support more launch missions.
When discussing specific plans for Martian colonization, Musk said that a self-sufficient city needs about 1 million people, millions of tons of cargo, and we can do this in 20 years. This goal is feasible through the large-scale production of the Starship project and the use of resources on Mars. Musk stressed that this is not only a technical challenge, but also an organizational and logistical challenge that requires global cooperation and efforts. He called on everyone to work together to turn this vision into reality.
Full text of Musk's speech:
Humanity is expected to be self-sufficient on Mars within 20 years
What I'm going to talk about tonight is the overall path to multiplanetarization of life. We do a lot of meaningful things at SpaceX. I mean, Starlink is fantastic, providing global connectivity while also providing a lot of funding for our other work. The Falcon 9 is currently the most important launch vehicle on Earth, completing more non-SpaceX launches than any other company. Starship was the first rocket design capable of allowing life to cross to another planet, and success was one of the possible outcomes. No rocket has ever had the potential to expand life to another planet before.
I'm going to talk about it a little bit esoteric here, because that might sound a little unusual.
But when you think about the question "where are the aliens", which I get asked a lot, it's the Fermi paradox. Where are the aliens? I haven't seen any evidence that there are aliens on Earth. A lot of people think that there are aliens on Earth. I would love to meet them. You know, when I got my green card, it was an alien registration card. But this "where are the aliens" question, I think it's a very esoteric one, because I haven't seen any traces of aliens, which means we may be unique.
If you look at the history of the earth, how old is the earth? Assuming physics is correct, the universe is about 13.8 billion years old, and the earth is about 4.5 billion years old. When considering the age of civilization, it seems to me that a good point of reference is the appearance of writing. So the earliest written texts are generally considered to be ancient Sumerians. Where are they now? They are extinct, but there was a primitive cuneiform script about 5,500 years ago, and in fact, I suggest you explore the interesting topic of the history of writing.
You basically need words to have civilization. Therefore, the history of human civilization is only a meagre 5,000 years, while the earth is 4.5 billion years old and the universe is 13.8 billion years old. So the history of human civilization is basically just a flash. It's only a tiny fraction. It's nothing at all. I think that probably means that consciousness is very rare, maybe short-lived, probably not for long, because I think we should have seen aliens, or at least some signs of aliens.
I think the most likely explanation is that consciousness is so rare. So, does this consciousness really extend to another planet? Does it extend to another star system? I mean, eventually, if we can be a space civilization, a transplanetary species, and eventually a transstellar civilization, and go out and explore all these star systems, I think we might find, I think we might find a lot of monoplanetary civilizations that have long been extinct. As I've said before, we don't want to be those boring monoplanetary civilizations. We want to be a multi-planetary civilization and eventually a transstellar civilization. Traveling between stars, you know, turning science fiction into reality and making Star Trek a reality.
That's why I think it's so urgent to achieve multi-staring life. Because for the first time in Earth's 4.5 billion year history, it is possible to extend life or consciousness beyond Earth. And we have to do it while civilization is still strong. So the company's overall goal is to sustainably extend life to another planet. Mars is the only option, and we had better achieve it before World War III or other terrible events happen. The point is that we need to have enough people and supplies on Mars for Mars to survive and sustain consciousness in the event of any problems on Earth.
It's still clear to me that I'm not talking about giving up on the planet or whatever, we want the planet to stay in good shape all the time. But there are some things that may be beyond our control. So, we need to make Mars a self-sufficient civilization as soon as possible. I think it will be possible to do that in about 20 years.
Starships are the key to multi-planetizing life
The giant starship factory we're building is clearly the key. The launch site that we're building, both here and elsewhere in Cape Canaveral and in the future, will be key.
It's hard to believe it's an unfiltered video. That's just what the camera actually sees, no filters, nothing, it's crazy. So you're doing some incredible work that I don't think anybody thinks is going to actually happen. So this strange location, we were basically on a sand spit near the Grande. This is actually the gateway to Mars. If this were a movie, you might say, impossible. It's too unbelievable, but it's true. Thanks to you, congratulations.
Here is a side-by-side diagram of the three flights. You can see that our thrust-to-weight ratio has improved significantly. So from the first flight to the second flight to the third flight, we made significant progress. In about a month, we will make our fourth flight. If all goes well, we will pass through the high heat control zone and crash into the ocean at a controlled point, and then hopefully also land on a virtual tower with a booster.
If the booster successfully lands on a virtual tower, then we will actually try to return and land on the tower on the 5th flight. It's definitely a success-oriented timeline, but it's possible.
But what I'm going to say is that the odds that we're actually able to grab the booster with the pylon are slim, but I think the odds of grabbing the booster with the pylon this year might be 80 or 90 percent, which is crazy. When we first talked about it, it sounded crazy. We're going to grab the largest flying object ever made from the air with a robotic arm, and we're going to do just that. Yes, it may not be successful at the beginning, but, you know, it will work.
So, Starships are really the key to multigalatizing life and protecting the Light of Consciousness. That's what it's all about. It can end up being the most important thing we do.
In my opinion, the light of consciousness is like a faint candle in the darkness. And this candle was lit only for a short time and could easily go out. So we obviously want to keep the faint light of consciousness on Earth and then extend it to Mars, and eventually to the rest of the solar system, and then start traveling to other star systems.
I mean, I may not see that day, but listen, I think one day we're going to find many civilizations, maybe a million years or 2 million years or 10 million years, but a civilization that lasts a million years should be much longer than ours. I mean, that's just the third decimal place, like about 13.8 billion years or something. If your civilization lasted 1 million years, that's just adding one to the number after the third decimal point, and that's 1 million years.
So I think we should think about how to make civilization last a million years. You know, we're often bothered by everyday trivialities, but we want to have at least a million years of civilization, if not 100 million years old, or a billion years old. So the absolute key to achieving this is to become a multiplanetary species.
People often ask, why Mars? Well, frankly, there aren't many options. Venus is an ultra-high-pressure acid bath, so you don't want to go to Venus. The Moon is very close to us, but it has no atmosphere. Its gravity is only one-sixth that of the Earth, and it lacks many critical resources. And the Moon has a much lower insulation value relative to Mars.
So if something happens, let's say there is a third world war, a global thermonuclear war, they may drop a couple of nuclear bombs on the moon. And for Mars, it is much more difficult to strike with nuclear weapons, Mars will perceive its arrival and may have some time to stop the invading missile. Therefore, the value of Mars, i.e., the difficulty or time required to reach Mars, is actually of great benefit in perpetuating the existence of consciousness.
Even if something terrible happens to Earth, and then once we get past Mars, there are some asteroids, like some moons of Jupiter, and Starships will eventually be able to reach anywhere in the solar system. We will need a new level of technology to go to other star systems.
But if we can't even reach Mars, then there is no hope for other star systems. I mean, it's a planet that can be repaired, it needs some work, but it's really the only option to be a multi-planetary species.
We could warm Mars, where the liquid ocean would cover about 40% of the surface, so we could make it a long-term Earth-like planet.
SpaceX is likely to complete about 90% of all Earth orbit launches this year
So we learned a lot from the beginning of the company. At first, we could not even get a small rocket into orbit, and now we have completed 327 successful launches and almost 300 landings. In fact, you know, in a few weeks we'll have 300 landings and 261 repeats.
I'm often told that reuse is not possible. Even if you do, it doesn't make sense, because no one wants to fly rockets frequently. But now we often fly and land boosters, we recycle fairings.
We learned a lot from Project Falcon, which was then applied to Project Starship. Falcon and Starlink have been pushing the company forward. So I just want to give a shout-out to the Falcon team for the incredible work they do.
Then there is the Dragon spacecraft, which has already been launched 45 times. We have put 50 astronauts into orbit and 46 to the space station. Everyone returns safely, that's the most important thing. So, the work of the Dragon Spaceship team is incredible. I really couldn't have hoped for better results.
If you look at the orbital map of all the satellites around the Earth. This may seem a bit scary, but in fact, Starlink currently has 6,000 satellites in operation, 100,000 lasers, and nearly 3 million customers. So Starlink has done a lot of good things.
It's an honor for us, because when I say we want to be a multi-planetary species, we obviously want Earth to be as good as possible and Mars to be better. So Starlink is making a huge contribution to this. We are also learning a lot by having such a large satellite network.
Starlink is also very important for high-bandwidth communication on Mars. From a small rocket to a larger one, multiple iterations of the Falcon 9, then the Falcon Heavy, then the Starship. If all goes according to plan this year, SpaceX could complete about 90% of all Earth orbit launch missions, while China will complete about 6% and the rest of the world will complete about 4%, which is quite staggering. And once Starship starts flying, we will complete more than 99% of Earth orbit launches. In order to build a city on Mars, you have to do this. I should say that we will also build a lunar base.
In fact, the Falcon 1 can only put about half a ton of payload into orbit, while the Falcon 9 could potentially put 25 tons of payload into orbit, depending on whether it is reusable. Falcon Heavy rocket, probably 70 tons. In any case, these numbers are clearly growing rapidly, and the Starship, in its final configuration or final form, will be able to complete deliveries of more than 200 tons in a fully reusable manner and be able to fly multiple times a day.
I'm very confident that we can achieve that this year. Like I said, there is about an 80%~90% chance of being able to complete this year. Then there's the recycling and reuse of starships, which takes longer. In the case of the Starship, before bringing it back to the launch site, we wanted the specific design of the Starship to achieve at least two consecutive successes, landing at a specific point in the ocean, or landing at a specific point in the ocean, and we didn't want the debris to fall on Mexico or the United States.
I'm guessing maybe we'll be able to reuse the starship next year, but I think there's a good chance that this year we'll take the starship, or part of it, to a controllable point in the ocean and make it land on some virtual tower in the Pacific or Indian Ocean.
We have proven that we can complete the final stage of the landing, spinning the ship from a valley priority position and landing vertically, we have proven it here, we just need to be sure that we can reliably pass the hot part of the reentry, and then we will bring the ship back and we will also land on the pylon. We're going to build more robotic arms, so there's going to be two towers here, and there's going to be two towers at Cape Canaveral. By sometime next year, we will have four Starship launch towers.
Our goal is to have the first Cape Canaveral tower and launch system operational around the middle of next year, which is important for overland launch missions. So, I think what we should probably expect is that we're going to test anything new here, build rockets, and then probably most of the operational launches will take place from Cape Canaveral.
So this year we plan to build about six more boosters and ships, and next year this production rate will increase significantly. That's why we're building this huge factory. Eventually, we're going to need to build more ships than boosters, especially for Mars, because there, you're actually going to want to use the ship, disassemble it, and use it as raw material on Mars, because the materials for the ship are going to be very valuable. Most ships you won't want to bring back, you just want to use them as raw materials. Eventually, we're going to want to bring the ship back, and I think we're going to give people the option to come back, because if there's an option to come back, they're more likely to want to go there. But I think most people who go to Mars will probably never return to Earth because it's safe to do so. We need to increase production to a fairly high number, let's say, I think it could end up being multiple ships per day.
The cost of each flight to Earth orbit could eventually drop to about $2 million or $3 million
Next year, our goal is to demonstrate spacecraft-to-spacecraft propellant transfer. This is a very important step to get to Mars, as you need to put the spacecraft into orbit and then do orbital refueling, just like refueling in the air. You'll need about 5 or 6 refill missions to complete a mission to Mars. So it's about 5 to 1. This will also be important for NASA's Artemis program, which will return humans to the moon. It will be a spacecraft dedicated to the moon, like this. So, apparently there are no robotic arms on the moon, so we need landing legs, you don't need heat shields, and you don't need flaps, because there is no atmosphere.
So, the lunar spacecraft is going to be specifically designed, and eventually, I think we want to build a lunar base, an alpha lunar base, and build a permanently inhabited base on the moon, and that's going to be very exciting.
So, you'll have a bunch of spacecraft dedicated to getting to and from the moon, but they'll never land back on Earth, they'll just dock with propellant carriers for orbital refueling. So, in terms of performance, we've made huge strides in every aspect of Starship.
I think that in the end our goal is to have a thrust of more than 330 tons of booster engines, which means that the total thrust at takeoff will be 10000 tons. The Raptor 3 also doesn't need a heat shield, it's actually simplified in a lot of ways, but a lot of the complexity is hidden because we have integral cooling channels in many parts of the engine that we don't have in the Raptor 2. So, in order not to need a heat shield, it has to be very durable, but that's actually what the Raptor 3 looks like. The Raptor 3 looks like it's missing some parts, but in fact those parts are either removed or integrated into the system, like I said, through the integral cooling channels, and where secondary piping is needed, secondary piping is also integrated into the pump and combustion chamber jacket.
In reality, it will be extremely difficult to build the Raptor 3, but it will be easy to integrate and will have higher performance and lower overall mass, as well as be more reliable. Well, this can go on for a while. So, what I find interesting is that if you look at the flame trail on the starship, how long is it, it's a very long flame trail, and that's due to the combustion chamber pressure, it's just spewing out more gas at a higher rate. But I think the flame trail could be 1000 feet long, more than twice the length of the rocket, and it will get longer as we increase the thrust. The height of the rocket will inevitably increase, so for Starship 2, we aim to put about 40 or 50 tons of payload into orbit on the third flight. So, the Starship 2 of the current design will be more than 100 tons, and then the Starship 3 will be more than 200 tons. And it increased from about 7000 tons of thrust to more than 8000 tons, but I think that we will end up with more than 10000 tons of thrust, maybe 7000 or 8000 tons of take-off mass.
So, it's probably going to get a little bigger, really. If you look at the Falcon 9, we're not going to do the Falcon 9's length-to-diameter ratio, that's crazy, but the Falcon 9 is a very long rocket, and I suspect it might be a little longer than that, but with a payload of 200 tons per flight, fully reusable, that's incredible, and it's going to be about 500 feet tall. And then, we have thousands of design improvements, and I think one of the most profound things is that Starship 3 will cost less per flight than Falcon 1.
So, this is the difference between a fully reusable rocket and a disposable one-time rocket. A fully reusable rocket, with a low-cost propellant and self-pressurization, actually costs less than a small disposable rocket. Like I said, the Falcon 1 can put about half a ton of payload into orbit, and the Starship 3 will have 400 times the payload while costing less than the Falcon 1. Eventually, I think we might be able to reduce the cost of each flight to Earth orbit to about $2 million or $3 million. These numbers are unthinkable, and no one thinks it's possible, but we haven't violated any laws of physics to achieve this. So, this is without violating the laws of physics, and we can do that.
Mars missions take place every two years or 26 months
If you look closely at the Starlink router, you'll see the Hohmann transfer orbit from Earth's orbit to Mars' orbit. It's basically telling people that the Starlink system you've purchased is helping humans get to Mars. I think that's pretty cool. So, about every two years, thousands of spacecraft will depart from Earth for Mars, and it looks like Battlestar Galactica. In a good way, hopefully not being chased by the Saons, but it would be incredible to see these thousands of ships departing for Mars every 26 months.
To get to Mars, we might create a propellant depot spacecraft. The propellant depot looks more like a hot dog than a sphere. Of course, just a very long ship with a lot of thermal insulation. And that spacecraft will be filled, and then shortly before it goes to Mars, or on the way to Mars, the spacecraft will take a few hundred more tons of payload from Earth, get to orbit with almost no propellant, and then be refueled by a transport ship, and then go to Mars and land, with more than 200 tons of useful payload to Mars. I think we'll simply reuse the materials of the spaceship, and over time you'll want to bring the ships back so that you can reuse them and build a self-sufficient Martian civilization as soon as possible.
We want to reduce the cost of traveling to Mars to a level that almost anyone can afford. So, if someone works Earth and saves money, they can go to Mars. Ideally, almost anyone can go to Mars. I think you're going to see a lot of governments funding people as well.
Ultimately, we want to have an optimal landing area on Mars, where you have resources, so you can get water or frozen water, and you're not too close to the poles, so you can use solar energy, and it would be nice to use nuclear energy, and nuclear energy would be very convenient on Mars because you could use the heat, and you could also generate electricity, at least initially.
So, these are all things that have to be developed, and a lot of people ask me if we're developing these things. I would say that not yet, because this is a carriage and we need horses in the first place. So, the rocket is a horse, then this is a carriage. But in the end, we're going to need all these things, a lot of power generation, mining, in general, ice mining, propellant production, long-term life support, a lot of construction, and global communications.
A self-sufficient city needs about 1 million people, millions of tons of goods. So, yes, we can do it. We can do that in 20 years. But like I said, in order for it to be self-sufficient, you actually need the entire industrial base. You can't miss any element. So that's what really takes time. Do you have everything you need to survive on Mars? At that point, the future of consciousness is secured. So, if you launch 10 times a day, each launch of 200 tons, 1.5 million tons of low-Earth orbit payload, you net it up to Mars, with a launch window of 250,000 tons.
So, that means you can get to 1 million tons in about 8 years, because the launch window is biennial. So, I think it's quite possible. I would say, we're really going to do that. We're really going to do it, it's crazy. So, millions of tons of cargo were shipped to Mars. Yes. Well, we will build a lot of flying machines. So, yes, a few thousand a year. That's what we need. It's actually quite possible.
It sounds like a lot, but it's a small number compared to car production. Sure, that's much bigger than a car, but even if you look at the gross tonnage, it's still very... It is quite possible to build several thousand aircraft per year. So, that's what we need to do. We'll do it. And then, in the long term, we may have some sea launch sites. Imagine all these starships, waiting in orbit for the planets to align, and then this huge starfleet takes off from Earth.
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