Tesla is under attack, and Chinese brands tighten the "encirclement"

Univision Automobile

2024-05-26 20:42Posted in Hunan automotive creators

Tesla is a "catfish". I have to admit that most of the product forms and iterative involution directions of today's new energy vehicles are defined by Tesla. The biggest contribution of China's new energy vehicle companies in product definition is actually just a refrigerator color TV sofa.

In 2019, Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory was completed. This almost coincides with the explosive growth of China's new energy vehicle industry. In other words, Tesla has driven the development of the entire new energy supply chain.

But now this "catfish" is facing the "encirclement and suppression" of a number of Chinese brands.

Tesla started a large-scale global layoff, and even the supercharging team at the North American headquarters was disbanded, and the layoff rate in China was 20%-50%, even affecting front-line employees closely related to production and sales. Musk already smells danger.

In the past, Tesla relied on its strong brand power to manipulate price fluctuations in the Chinese market to achieve forced orders and promotions.

After the "hero" Zhu Xiaotong returned to China, Tesla's terminal sales policy did not make significant changes. The first thing Zhu Xiaotong did when he returned was not to come up with a strong sales policy to boost the market, but to attend the official start of Tesla's Shanghai energy storage gigafactory.

This may be a shift in Tesla's strategy. In the Chinese market, Tesla will eventually have to choose between volume and profit, just like other overseas brands.

In 2023, the capacity utilization rate of Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory has been at a high level of 92%. The latest news is that Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory production fell 25% year-on-year in April this year. The downward trend is clear.

Tesla's sales are heavily reliant on the Model 3 and Model Y, which account for more than 90% of Tesla's sales in China and are also the best-selling models in the segment. The vast majority of China's new energy brands also regard these two models as imaginary enemies.

But many people don't notice that the Model 3, which has been delivered since 2017, is actually a 6-year-old car. Model 3 sales in China have gone from tens of thousands of units sold a month in the past to thousands of units sold a month. In April this year, NIO's monthly sales of the ET5/ET5T reached 6,710 units, surpassing the Model 3's 5,065 units.

Also in April this year, Model Y sales fell by 44.5%, becoming the largest decline in the segment, and the absolute sales crown for 15 consecutive months has come to naught. This time, Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory production cut is mainly aimed at the Model Y.

The high-end models Model S and X no longer have a presence in the Chinese market, indicating that Tesla's brand power has lost in the high-end market. The cheaper Tesla Model 2 is considered Tesla's "big move", but in the context of Tesla's current global layoffs, the fate of the Model 2 has become increasingly uncertain. Inside sources revealed that Musk has abandoned the development plan for the Model 2. The 4680 large cylindrical battery is optimistically estimated to be installed in 2025.

In addition to FSD's expectation of entering China, Tesla currently has no technical cards to play in China. However, at present, the attractiveness of FSD to Chinese users is far less than that of intelligent driving of domestic new power brands.

Tesla's profit margin per vehicle is more than 20%, and in an involuted market like China, if Tesla is willing to sacrifice profits, it can still get back sales. But if the price is not reduced, Tesla China can only bear the decline in sales.

In fact, since the beginning of the year, the industry has expected Tesla's possible price cuts. When making product echelons and pricing, various car companies will actually make targeted reservations. But now, judging from the action of the factory to reduce production, Tesla has chosen to shrink to keep profits.

The most taboo thing at the poker table is to be seen through your hole cards. Tesla now has no license to play, and there is no "big move" in the follow-up, which is an opportunity to give Chinese brands confidence to "encircle and suppress" Tesla.

At present, in the 20-250,000 level market, Xiaomi SU7, ZEEKR 007, and even NIO ET5 have good sales performance, and they are eating away at the market share of Model 3. In terms of SUVs, the Ideal L6, BYD Song L, Xpeng G6, and the upcoming Ledao L60 and AVATR 07 are all rivals of the Model Y.

The most important thing is that everyone has been sure that Tesla will not be able to fight back with a powerful weapon, and it is not willing to roll up with Chinese brands.

This is not Huashan on the sword, this is the siege of Guangmingding. (Text/Youshi Auto Old Cannon)

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